Perhaps we have finally found our 2022 groove. We’ll check to see if that is the case as we put together forecasts across the country, with a couple of stops in Texas

Road Trip from Santa Rosa, California to Gadsden, Alabama

Amarillo, Texas

Hickory, North Carolina

Lima, Ohio
Road Trip from Laredo, Texas to Lima

We will certainly reflect on the devastating tornado that afflicted parts of 4 states, most influentially the state of Kentucky in the next several days. We will also take the time to look at the following forecasts.

Sebastian, Florida
Road Trip from Reno, Nevada to Sebastian

Erie, Pennsylvania

Oxnard, California

Santa Rosa, California

We are in the Holiday season now, friends, and forecasts become a little bit more important this time, to a lot more people.

San Antonio, Texas
Road Trip from Atlantic City, New Jersey to San Antonio

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

Asheville, North Carolina

Road Trip from Asheville to Jacksonville, North Carolina

Lynchburg, Virginia

Grand Rapids, Michigan
Road Trip from Lynchburg to Grand Rapids

After setting some high marks for forecasts in the past couple of months, November looks a bit slower. Good thing Fox Weather is around.

Terre Haute, Indiana
Road Trip from Brunswick, Georgia to Terre Haute

Kennewick, Washington

It was one of the warmest starts to autumn that we’ve Ever experience. With Halloween around the corner, we might see a bit of a change. If nothing else, the weather might get a little spoooooooky. (Two Portlands in one week is spooky, right?)

Portland, Oregon

Road Trip from Portland to Trenton, New Jersey

Sherman, Texas

Roanoke, Virginia
Road Trip from Sherman to Roanoke

Portland, Maine

Weirton, West Virginia

There is a tornado watch ongoing this evening from southeastern Tennessee to northeastern Alabama. The threat is localized to the region, and while significant for the region, it doesn’t qualify as an outbreak. Today’s feature is born of a lower level, cut off area of low pressure that doesn’t have a lot of juice to keep it sustained.

Later this week, a more formidable feature is forecast to emerge in the Plains. A sharp area of low pressure that also threatens too become cut off will develop with a little bit more jet support over Oklahoma, Kansas and other nearby states. The sharply cut off low will have a shortwave and a resulting rapid propagation, and as a result will diminish fairly quickly in the Ohio Valley.

Still, even on Day 5 (Sunday), the Storm Prediction Center already has a splotch on the map to be monitored for severe weather. The likely turning in the atmosphere, and the clashing airmasses of a changing season make tornadoes a strong possibility.

Another thing that will usher this shorter — but still active — wave out of the Plains is another, strong, longer waved trough that, even though it is still a week out, the SPC is concerned about. The surface low is forecast to be much more ferocious, with strong winds, rain and perhaps even more thunderstorm activity in the Plains.

This is going to be a very fall like feature, which means windy and rainy in the Upper Midwest. Further to the south, there will be tornadoes in a similar region as on Sunday, but gusty straight line winds will be a problem as well. A well defined cold front will sweep through the southern Plains, which usually means lines of thunderstorms rather than supercellular tornadic storms.

Nevertheless, I would expect the severe picture to clear up as models get better and we get closer to time. An initial instinct for me is that the zone for severe weather will include portions even further north by next Tuesday and Wednesday, perhaps as far as South Dakota. For now, here is the map:

It’s been a very quiet year for severe weather of the traditional variety, but it looks like October will change things. Not only will the next week change our fortunes, it will also change our weather. Don’t be surprised if next Tuesday’s storm is the one that ushers a real dose of autumnal air.

It’s time to get out and start forecasting again. Let’s see where we are headed in the next few days.

Cleveland, Tennessee

Dothan, Alabama

Los Angeles, California

Sioux Falls, South Dakota
Road Trip from Los Angeles to Sioux Falls

Ogden, Utah
Road Trip from Springfield, Illinois to Ogden

One source that I use pretty regularly here is the Climate Prediction Center. As the summer was winding to a conclusion, with many other weather news stories to cover, they quietly updated their forecast offerings. Now, it isn’t a massive change to their product offering, but it definitely is a fresh coat of paint.

This is one of those paint jobs that really makes things look considerably better, though. The CPC graciously still has a 3-4 week outlook with the old graphics.

Looks fine, I guess. Also looks like the middle of October could be warm. That’s neither here nor there, though. Let’s look at the 2 week forecast which is issued with the new graphics.

Now there is a key in the bottom, which is pretty great, and a full word or phrase for each section. Again, it’s warm in the middle of the country, but here with the new version of the map, it’s much clearer.

So this is definitely an improvement. They not only look better, but the information is a lot more clearly displayed than before. It’s nice to have an upgrade that is actually an upgrade!

The past couple of months have been fairly active with forecasts. Let’s keep up the streak through mid-September.

Columbus, Ohio

Greenville, South Carolina

Roanoke, Virginia

Next week is the peak of hurricane season. We will feature a lot of forecasts in the southeast, so if anything arises, we will be there to watch for it.

Gainesville, Florida

Tampa, Florida

Columbia, South Carolina

Redding, California
Road Trip from Columbia – Redding

Jackson, Mississippi

St. Louis, Missouri