As has been the case recently, the trade winds over the Atlantic basin, as well as ocean temperatures are elevated. Both of these traits are consistent with active hurricane seasons, which we have certainly been privy to for the last decade or so. Also this summer, El Niño is forecast to intensify, and generally, El Niño is an inhibitor to tropical development. Which of those factors will win out?

The National Hurricane Center officially says that they believe it will be El Niño that wins the summer, and has officially forecast a below normal hurricane season because of it.

The NHC takes care to point out the importance of maintaining your hurricane vigilance even as the outlook is more favorable than it has been in a while. Part of the reason is the factors working against a quiet year hurricane season (water temperature, weak trades). Another, larger part of the suggestion for continued concern is that in the end, it doesn’t matter if the season is quiet or not if one of the few larger storm strikes your home. In 1992, there were only 7 named storms. One of those storms was Hurricane Andrew.

The outlook is promising on a holistic level, however the consistent warning when it comes to the hurricane season remains the same. It only takes one bad storm to set the impression of an entire season.