The start of June was proceeding just fine on Monday, but then after a little warm front brought a scant amount of precipitation to Sandusky overnight, Tuesday was very different. Amid forecast highs that were supposed to be in the upper 70s to low 80s, opportune clear skies led to a high of 90. Nope, nobody was close. The Weather Channel had the top forecast, simply on the merits of having the warmest forecast on Tuesday. Actuals: Monday, Trace of rain, High 73, Low 50 Tuesday – .04 inches of rain, High 90, Low 59
As we noted a couple of days ago, the tropics have been active very early this season, and now, it appears as though the Gulf of Mexico will offer up it’s first tropical storm of the season. Tropical Depression Three is churning in the Bay of Campeche, as seen here on satellite.
The circulation is just off shore, even as the primary area of convection is quite visibly over the Yucatan Peninsula. This is important, because this will allow the storm to continue to intensify. Models anticipate an intensification to a tropical storm — Cristobal — perhaps even this morning.
Spaghetti plots have a tendency to underestimate the peak intensity of tropical features, which means that I and many other outlets believe that this storm may even reach hurricane status as it drifts to the Gulf Coast.
It’s still going to go through a period meandering through the Bay of Campeche before it starts to drift towards the Louisiana Bayous, which means there is still a great deal that is unknown. For the time being, this is what the forecast spaghetti plot looks like.
The potential for heavy rain will be the primary concern for coastal residents as the storm approaches, though wind and isolated tornadoes are always possible with tropical features.
After a busy forecasting month in April, we slowed down a bit in May to cover a lot of the other news stories (and write up a lot of road trips) for spring time. Maybe it was this relaxed pace that was taken, but Victoria-Weather ended up with the top spot for the month, a refreshing change of pace after April.
