Category Archives: Forecast

Weather Wayback… Another time,, the same Longview

I have issued a forecast for Longview, Texas in the time since Anthony issued his own forecast on January 30th. Back at the end of January, it had become clear that Texas had already lost its taste for winter. Temperatures were in the mid to upper 70s for highs in the afternoon, and never got any cooler than the upper 40s. That’s unusual for the transition from January to February for almost everyone, so Longview needed the unwavering analytical mind of the Forecast.io robot to steer them right. Forecast.io did indeed have the best forecast, as their highs were a handful of degrees warmer than the human forecasters.
Actuals: Tuesday, January 31st – High 77, Low 48
Wednesday, February 1st – High 76, Low 56

Grade: B-C

April brings a break

Jacksonville, North Carolina had a healthy round of severe weather to contend with as March wound to a close. When April rolled around over the weekend, it was as if the climate had changed with the calendar. Temperatures were pleasant and skies were clear as surface high pressure built behind the late March storm. The bad news is, storms will be on their way back as this weekend ends. There was a three way tie at the top of the leaderboard, with Victoria-Weather, Accuweather and the Weather Service drawing level.
Actuals: Saturday – High 75, Low 53
Sunday – High 69, Low 52

Grade: A-C

Jacksonville, North Carolina

Once, a long time ago, during the nascent days of this site, Anthony was scheduled for a forecast for Jacksonville, North Carolina, but instead issued one for the one in Florida. Oops! We are a much more well oiled machine now, I assure you. This is definitely the correct Jacksonville.

At 956PM, ET, Jacksonville was reporting a temperature of 66 degrees with fair skies. Today was a very stormy day, with squall lines rolling through the eastern Carolinas and Virginia today. There were severe storms as nearby as Goldsboro this afternoon. There is still some thunderstorm activity apparent off shore, but now, things on land have cleared out and are much more pleasant.
An upper level ridge is moving in behind the shortwave that brough the showers and storms to Jacksonville today, which indicates there will be no real cool down behind the supposed cold front that swept through today. Expect warm, sunny days for the weekend.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 75, Low 52
Sunday – Sunny, High 67, Low 50

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny,, High 76, Low 55
Sunday – Sunny skies, High 70, Low 50

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with periods of clouds and sunshine High 74, Low 54
Sunday – Pleasant with a full day of sunshine High 70, Low 50

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 54
Sunday – Sunny, High 69, Low 49

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73, Low 55
Sunday – Sunny, High 67, Low 51

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 54
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon. High 78, Low 52
Sunday – Partly cloudy overnight. High 73, Low 49

Here is a look at the satellite, showing the high tops of convection off the shore of the Outer Banks,

Backwards

It’s probably a good thing that we aren’t officially verifying the forecast for Ocean City. We knew that temperatures would be a little bit off because Ocean City doesn’t have an official observation point. We can still reference what happened in Atlantic City, though, and surmise that our forecasts wouldn’t have been great. There was a sharp spike in temperature as low pressure arrived to the west, scuttling any hopes of a successful forecast. Atlantic City reached 70 degrees on Monday, which was at least 10 degrees warmer than any outlet called for .The temperatures cooled off – the opposite of what was in the forecast – For Tuesday, as more rain moved in. All in all, good news that we won’t have to think about this forecast anymore.

Meteorologists can take the heat

Specifically, meteorologists forecasting for McAllen, Texas generally did a very good job accounting for some 90 degree temperatures. It wasn’t a huge change for south Texas, but it was definitely the warmest we had seen to date on Victoria-Weather. Those high numbers didn’t scare us off, though, as Victoria-Weather and WeatherNation led the way with some very good forecasts, erring only by a couple of degrees, with almost everyone else clustering right behind us. Forecast.io was a little TOO enthusiastic about those warm temps and finished well off the pace.
Actuals: Sunday – High 90, Low 70
Monday – High 92, Low 70

Grade: A-C

A boundary deep in the heart of Texas

During the forecast for San Antonio, we took a hard look at the system currently raging through the Tennessee Valley, bringing showers and thunderstorms to that part of the world. Would it dig south enough to bring any discernible change to the weather down that way? Well, yes. The boundary did bring more cloud. It brought a taste of rain. And the temperatures were a shade cooler on Monday than they were on Sunday. All of this played right into my hands. Victoria-Weather anticipated a bit cooler pattern, staying in the mid to 80s for highs, rather than going for the gusto like other outlets.
Actuals: Sunday – High 86, Low 62
Monday – Trace of rain, High 82, Low 67

Grade: C-D

A rainy preamble

There were a pair of shortwaves poised to move through the middle of the country as the weekend ended and the work week began. The initial round promised some isolated severe weather in the central US, while the secondary cold front looked more menacing. That was certainly the case in Owensboro, which saw severe storms in the area today, but before it got there, there was simply a few splashes of rain. This worked out well, because this is how the forecast chips fell. The Weather Channel and WeatherNation had perfect forecasts on Saturday, and that carried them to a victory for the day, despite having slightly different numbers on Sunday.
Actuals: Saturday . 02 inches of rain, High 73, Low 61
Sunday – .17 inches of rain, High 68, Low 51

Grade: B-C

Ocean City, New Jersey

After we spent so much of yesterday in Texas, we’re going for a change of pace and headed to the Mid-Atlantic. The weather is always interesting up in that part of the world, so let’s see just how interesting it is today.

At 1054AM, ET, Atlantic City, the nearest reporting station to Ocean City, was reporting a temperature of 45 degrees with overcast skies. An area of low pressure sneaking out of the central Plains into the Great Lakes was drawing a low cloud deck off the Atlantic which promised to burn off as the day wears on.
That onshore flow was laden with warm, moist air, and as the initial round of clouds melts away, there is a chance that the instability of the advancing system coupled with the available moisture could touch off an isolated shower in the afternoon. The upper level pattern features two weak short waves, and the initial one is producing the activity in the Great Lakes right now, while the secondary wave is threatening a severe weather outbreak in Oklahoma this afternoon. Both will travel well northwest of the Jersey shore, and the Appalachians will intercept most of the moisture, but both promise some shower activity, with a light spot of rain on Monday with stronger thunderstorms on Tuesday with the second wave.
Tomorrow – Warmer with a spot of late drizzle, High 65, Low 48
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, with heavy rain and an embedded thunderstorm possible late, High 65, Low 50

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 62, Low 45
Tuesday – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning. Low 50

AW: Tomorrow – Warmer; occasional rain and drizzle in the morning followed by a shower in spots in the afternoon High 59, Low 47
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 61, Low 50

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers before noon. Mostly cloudy, High 58, Low 43
Tuesday – A chance of showers. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, cloudy, High 60, Low 47

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning. High 63, Low 45
Tuesday – Patchy fog in the morning. Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers, High 62, Low 51

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with isolated showers, High 61, Low 50
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 63, Low 52

FIO: Tomorrow – Foggy starting overnight, continuing until morning. High 62, Low 48
Tuesday – Foggy until morning. High 63, Low 49

Unfortunately, Ocean City uses Atlantic City’s airport, and the arport is well inland from the coastal Ocean City, so we can’t officially verify this forecast. Here is a look at the clouds in the area. Hopefully they can burn off and make for a nicer afternoon than what seems on order. 

McAllen, Texas

Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 91, Low 70
Monday – Sunny, High 93, Low 70

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. Becoming windy during the afternoon. High 92, Low 70
Monday – A mainly sunny sky. High 93, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, becoming windier and warm High 92, Low 70
Monday – Partly sunny and very warm High 93, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 69
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Breezy, Partly cloudy, High 89, Low 70
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 91, Low 72

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 91, Low 70
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 91, Low 70

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the morning, continuing until evening. High 96, Low 70
Monday – Partly cloudy starting overnight, continuing until afternoon. High 98, low 70

Whoa, that is a very warm forecast by FIO. Hot and sunny seems to be the consensus, though!

FIO: Tomorrow –

Storms keep east, but dry air rolls in

San Angelo saw the passage of a dry line in the wee hours of Friday morning. It was mostly dry, through there was a trace of pre-dawn rain. The big story was the dry air that trailed this line of storms that got much more active as the boundary reached I-35. That dry air allowed temperatures to cool off even further on Friday than most outlets had, except for one…. Victoria-Weather. We were the best outlet by far, with the rest clumped behind us.
Actuals: Thursday – High 82, Low 62
Friday – Trace of rain, High 80, Low 54

Grade: A-C