Durham, North Carolina

Time to get this forecast wagon hitched and on the road!

At 953PM, ET, Durham was reporting a temperature of 73 degrees with clear skies. There was a line of very weak thunderstorms extending from north of Fayetteville to south of Mount Airy, but it was continuing to diminish for the night. A lower level trough over the mid-Atlantic is churning up a few showers and thunderstorms throughout the area, and the persistence is leading to the threat of flash flooding where the storms sit in place, but it is clear and humid where they are not.
The low level wave will shift off shore and low pressure will deepen rapidly in the Gulfstream, The deepening low pressure will extend west to the coast, with moisture building into the Carolinas again on Saturday. Before that, a little bit of dry air will dig in thanks to the circulation of the deepening low, but the beginning of the weekend might be a bit drearier.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with late showers and storms, High 88, Low 73
Saturday – Scattered showers and storms, High 85, Low 73

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning with scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. High 86, Low 71
Saturday – Thunderstorms. Potential for heavy rainfall. High 82, Low 72

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers and a heavy t-storm, mainly later; watch for flash flooding High 86, Low 71
Saturday – Mostly cloudy and humid with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm around, some can be heavy late High 84, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, High 88, Low 72
Saturday – Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 8am High 85, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning then partly sunny with showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon, High 84, Low 72
Saturday – Showers and thunderstorms, High 81, Low 72

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely, High 88, Low 72
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms, High 86, Low 72

FIO: Tomorrow – Possible light rain and humid throughout the day. High 86, Low 71
Saturday – Rain and humid throughout the day. High 83, Low 72

Interestingly enough, we just started watching the Last Dance tonight, and here we are, forecasting for Durham. Maybe not that interesting. Anyways, here is a look at the radar, showing those isolated storms. There is a lot of ground clutter that is making it look worse than is true on the ground.

Napa, California

All right, another forecast! I’ve been to the Napa area within the last year, and I do have to say, it is significantly more beautiful than I anticipated, but also much different. That said, I didn’t quite know what to expect.

At 754PM, PT, Napa was reporting a temperature of 64 degrees with clear skies. Fog and low clouds were settling into the South Bay as night encroached, and the clear skies and dewpoints in the mid 50s suggest that fog will be likely in the Napa Valley as well, particularly given that it is only approaching 8pm.
A trough moving through the Pacific Northwest is churning things up further to the north along the Pacific Coast, while high pressure hasn’t yet settled into the southwest to provide the offshore winds to battle back the marine layer. Napa looks like it will warm up a bit as the weekend arrives, which may limit the morning and evening haze on Friday.
Tomorrow – Cloudy early, then sunny, with haze arriving late, High 80, Low 56
Friday – Sunnier, High 82, Low 57

TWC: Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon High 83, Low 57
Friday – Mainly sunny. High 81, Low 55

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 83, Low 57
Friday – Beautiful with areas of low clouds early; otherwise, mostly sunny High 83, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, High 81, Low 56
Friday – Sunny, High 81, Low 55

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning, then becoming sunny. Patchy fog in the morning, High 85, Low 59
Friday – Partly cloudy in the morning, then becoming sunny, High 80, Low 57

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 80, Low 56
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 80, Low 55

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 87, Low 54
Friday – Clear throughout the day. High 85, Low 53

Forecast.io is clearly using their own model guidance. Yikes. Here is the satellite imagery, showing the low clouds along the coast, getting ready to envelop San Francisco.

Reno, Nevada

It’s opening day for baseball fans, at long, long last, so let’s go to a state that does not have any baseball whatsoever, because Victoria-Weather is excellent with timing, if nothing else.

At 755PM, MT, Reno was reporting a temperature of 79 degrees with winds of 35mph. There were some clouds over the Sierras around Lake Tahoe, and the end of showers and storms within that activity were leading to the localized gusts.
The trend will continue to be towards clearing as the work week ends and the weekend arrives. Expect surface high pressure to continue to build across the Intermountain West, with sunny skies and warm temperatures for Reno.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 92, Low 59
Saturday – Sunny, High 93, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and some clouds High 89, Low 56
Saturday – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds High 92, Low 58

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 90, Low 57,
Saturday – Sunny to partly cloudy High 92, Low 59

NWS: Tomorrow – Widespread haze before 11am. Sunny High 91, Low 59
Saturday – Sunny High 92, Low 60

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. Haze in the morning. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 87, Low 57
Saturday – Sunny, High 91, Low 59

WN: Tomorrow – Hazy, High 90, Low 59
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 60

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 87. Low 62
Saturday – Clear throughout the day. High 92, Low 64

Here is a look at the satellite. Those diminishing clouds brought the breeze, but their diminishing will lead to a rapid cooldown tonight.

Fayetteville, North Carolina

We randomly pick our forecast cities, so there isn’t any favoritism here, but boy, our random selector sure seems to like Fayetteville lately.

At 1053PM, ET, Fayetteville was reporting a temperature of 79 degrees with clear skies. With a dew point of 73, the clear skies are likely to lead to some fog developing before the night is through, though there was a spot of shower and thunderstorm activity southwest of Fayetteville across the border in South Carolina.
A vast area of low pressure has parked itself over Hudson Bay, and is playing a role in directing traffic much further south. A weak undercutting wave moving through the southern Great Lakes is amplifying onshore flow in the eastern Carolinas tonight, but by tomorrow evening, only a fading trough west of the Appalachians will remain. A moisture rich, generally featureless landscape will mark the Carolinas’ atmosphere on Friday, with some later afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible, but likely closer to Charlotte and Winston-Salem, where the terrain may have some say in he matter. Hot and hazy is the name of the game in Fayetteville.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy and warm, High 92, Low 75
Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 94, Low 74

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies. High 92, Low 72
Friday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 93, Low 72

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 93, Low 71
Friday – A morning thunderstorm; otherwise, partly sunny High 93, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny High 94, Low 74
Friday – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 90, Low 74
Friday – Mostly sunny High 90, Low 73

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 94, Low 78
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 72

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High
92, Low 72
Friday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 92, Low 70

Well, the day turned to Thursday as I was posting this, and that confused me a bit with the forecasts. Here is a look at the satellite, with one rogue shower, now fading, in South Carolina.

Super dewps

Never underestimate the ability of a high dew point to hold temperatures back. That was the case in College Station on Wednesday, with dew points in the 70s throughout the entire 24 (actually 48 hour period of the forecast), but another cause was a particularly vigorous onshore breeze that even let in a few drops of mist late in the day on Wednesday. Temperatures were a degree or two cooler than most outlets anticipated as a result. Generally, it was a decent forecast, though, with The Weather Channel and Accuweather claiming a tie.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 92. Low 81
Wednesday – High 94, Low 79

Grade: B-

College Station, Texas

East Texas is always a haven of interesting weather. How interesting will it be this week?

At 1253PM, CT, College Station was reporting a temperature of 90 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A brisk southerly wind imported moisture from the Gulf, leading to a dew point in the mid 70s, and the general cloudiness of the region.
Low pressure in the lee of the Rockies will trend towards dissipation over the next 48 hours, which will snuff out the brisk south winds, leading to a much clearer, and likely much warmer mid-week, even as moisture lingers in the atmosphere.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 93, Low 78
Wednesday – Hotter and sunny, High 97, Low 78

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly cloudy, High 93, Low 79
Wednesday – Sunshine along with some cloudy intervals, High 95, Low 79

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy and humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 93, Low 80
Wednesday – Breezy in the morning; otherwise, humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 93, Low 80

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 94, Low 79
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 78

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 91, Low 80
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 92, Low 80

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 94, Low 79
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 95, Low 78

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 94, Low 78
Wednesday – Humid and mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 96, Low 77

Oppressive. Here is a look at the satellite imagery, with clouds across Gulf Coast Texas.

Fayetteville, North Carolina

There are a couple of Fayettevilles of note in this country of ours. For today, we will visit the North Carolinian version of the two.

At 953PM, ET, Fayetteville was reporting overcast skies and a temperature of 76, with an incredibly sultry dew point of 73. The exhaustingly humid air was ahead of a line of storms extending from Raleigh to Norman and west towards Norwood, along which there were some severe gusts. These storms would likely inch into Fayetteville before the night was through.
The wet weather is tied to a slowing cold front, associated with the remnants of Cristobal, who is now moving through Hudson Bay towards Baffin Island. This will lend to some lingering showers and storms in and around eastern North Carolina tomorrow, especially in the afternoon. Robust surface high pressure is moving in from the north, but an upper level trough is going to generate a surface perturbation that will ripple along the southern flank of the ridge, and will reinvigorate the threat for showers and storms in eastern North Carolina on Saturday. Unfortunately, that truly crisp air looks unlikely to make a lasting impression.
Tomorrow – Isolated storms, otherwise muggy and mostly cloudy, High 83, Low 74
Saturday – Mostly cloudy, chances of rain and storms, High 83, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers early with overcast skies later in the day. High 82, Low 70
Saturday – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 84, Low 64

AW: Tomorrow – A thick cloud cover and humid with a couple of showers and a heavy thunderstorm; watch for flooding High 83, Low 72
Saturday – Cloudy most of the time with a shower or heavy thunderstorm in the area; watch for flooding High 85, Low 67

NWS: Tomorrow – Scattered showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11am. Mostly cloudy High 83, Low 72
Saturday – A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Partly sunny High 84, Low 67

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy with scattered showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms, High 81, Low 72
Saturday – Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 82, Low 67

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 83, Low 71
Saturday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 84, Low 67

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain in the morning. High 82, Low 71
Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 82, Low 66

Some mixed messaging with the forecasts to round out the week. Rain? No? We’ll see! The radar for tonight continues to look active, though.

San Angelo, Texas

West Texas always provides for an interesting forecast in May. We’ve missed that month by a week. Does that mean we miss out on a particularly wild forecast? Let’s find out.

At 251PM CT, San Angelo was reporting a temperature of 96 degrees with clear skies. Tropical Storm Cristobal was moving ashore in eastern Louisiana, and while he wasn’t going to make a direct impact on west Texas, the redirected flow of moisture into the region, making skies even crisper.
Cristobal is going to continue to move northward, while angling to the east, and will continue to leave west Texas in a drier regime, free of the threat of convection for the beginning of the workweek. An impulse moving out of the central Rockies on Tuesday will provide a shot of cooler air, and probably a threat of some gusty winds later in the day, but in the absence of moisture, thunderstorms are unlikely.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 104, Low 70
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 95, Low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. Near record high temperatures. High 105, Low 71
Tuesday – Sunny 98, Low 76

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 106, Low 70
Tuesday – Breezy in the a.m.; otherwise, sunny and hot; caution advised if doing strenuous activities outside High 99, Low 73

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 105, Low 72
Tuesday – Sunny and hot High 98, Low 74

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 105, Low 71
Tuesday – Sunny, High 97. Low 75

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 105, Low 71
Tuesday – Sunny, High 101, Low 74

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day High 104, Low 70
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 96, Low 72

Goodness gracious, is that hot. Typically, for a hot dry west Texas forecast, we don’t quite have this dramatic a satellite image. Here is Cristobal!

Jonesboro, Arkansas

I was in Jonesboro in March last year, and though I only stopped briefly, I thought it was a neat little town. During March of tis year, a tornado went through town, setting it as an example of how cities would respond to severe weather during the pandemic, and Jonesboro passed with flying colors. Hopefully nothing as terrible this weekend!

At 956AM, CT, Jonesboro Regional Airport missed it’s observation, however nearby Walnut Ridge was reporting fair skies with a temperature 83 degrees. A severe line of thunderstorms was moving through Corning, headed towards Marmaduke and Rector, and there was a chance for some shower activity this morning in Jonesboro. The thunderstorm activity is due to some local mesoscale forcing, it should be fairly quiet this afternoon.
Jonesboro’s weather this weekend looks to be in response to two large features, a developing low in the high plains, and tropical storm Cristobal. General early summer convection will be snuffed out by Cristobal, but as low pressure emerges in Montana, moisture entrainment will be reinvigorated. A few showers and storms will be possible on Saturday afternoon as a result, but as Cristobal arrives along the Louisiana coast, moisture will be drawn away from town to conclude the weekend.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, with an isolated shower or storm in the afternoon, High 94, Low 75
Sunday – Sunny and still quite warm, High 94, Low 75

TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. A stray afternoon thunderstorm is possible. High 95, Low 73
Sunday – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. High 94, Low 75

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, warm and humid; a thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 94, Low 75
Sunday – Warm with sun and areas of high clouds High 94, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Sunny, High 92, Low 71
Sunday – Sunny, High 91, Low 73

WB: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunny, High 93, Low 76
Sunday – Sunny, High 83, Low 76

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 92, Low 72
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 73

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid throughout the day. High 95, Low 74
Sunday – Humid throughout the day. High 94, Low 75

Strange to see Weatherbug go warmer than the Weather Service. I went with a warmer Sunday than Saturday because of the clouds I expect on Saturday. The SPC issued a watch for this line as I was writing this post. Technically, Jonesboro is under a watch until 6pm, but I’m sure they will be cut out within a couple of hours.

Sandusky, Ohio

It’s hard to believe the couple of months we have been through as a country. Hopefully, it is an inflection point in our history, towards justice and understanding.

At 255PM, ET, Sandusky was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 55 degrees. A solid dome of high pressure was centered over the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, with little threat of being dislodged today.
A sharp, fast moving trough will slide into the Great Lakes through the day tomorrow, with some showers and thunderstorms following suit. At the surface, there is expected to be enough penetration into the surface ridge that some of those showers and storms will clip Sandusky overnight Monday into Tuesday, with some slow moving showers and clouds on Tuesday morning. The ridge will linger to the south, so sunny skies should return by afternoon.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, late rain. High 72, Low 46
Tuesday – Overcast early with a spot of rain, then sunny in the afternoon. High 81, Low 51

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds. High 73, Low 47
Tuesday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 84, Low 60

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and warmer, High 71, Low 47
Tuesday – A shower or thunderstorm early in the morning; rather cloudy and humid High 77, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 71, low 48
Tuesday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2pm, then a slight chance of showers. Partly sunny High 80, Low 61

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, not as cool, High 71, Low 49
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming partly sunny, 40 percent chance of showers, High 77, Low 62

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 70, Low 48
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered storms, High 78, Low 61

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 70, low 49
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 79, Low 62

Here is the satellite, showing a very nice end to the weekend across the Great Lakes.