Charlottesville, Virginia
Posted by Ryan
We are off to the home of Thomas Jefferson and the University of Virginia, in Charlottesville, Virginia.
At 153PM, ET, Charlottesville was reporting a temperature of 68 degrees with cloud and rain. A weak cool front in New England and the remnant instability caused by a low level trough in the southeast was producing widespread rain from Maine to Florida, and a spin in the atmosphere over far western Virginia was ensuring that Charlottesville was seeing some of the heaviest rain at the time.
A weak upper level trough is forming thanks to the long duration of the lower level feature, and with a little bit more structure, the moisture will be shoved off the coast. The respite will only be temporary through, as a stronger system emerging from the Great Lakes will draw the moisture back inland for some showers and thunderstorms in the afternoons Tuesday and Wednesday, as a cold front lingers west of the Appalachians.
Tomorrow - A few showers and storms in the afternoon, High 78, Low 59
Wednesday - Sunnier and warmer, but with a few afternoon storms, High 84, Low 57
TWC: Tomorrow - Scattered T-Storms High 76, Low 65
Wednesday - Partly Cloudy (Early AM rain) High 81, Low 62
AW: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm around High 79, Low 62
Wednesday - Times of clouds and sun High 83, Low 57
NWS: Tomorrow - Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy High 77, Low 61
Wednesday - A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny High 80, Low 58
WB: Tomorrow - Occasional showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning...then showers likely with isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. High 76, Low 60
Wednesday - Mostly cloudy in the morning...then becoming mostly sunny. High 79, Low 57
On this one, it appears that the Weather Service and V-W are in the same frame of thought. Rain each of the next two days is possible, but certainly, most of it will be east of Charlottesville. Not right now though. Plenty of rain to contend with right now.
Decatur, Alabama
Posted by Ryan
It's Mother's Day today, so we send our regards to all the moms out there, and the children who love them.
At 1136AM, CT, Decatur was reporting a temperature of 68 degrees with overcast skies. The rain has temporarily ended there, but they were still reporting some showers to the west in Florence, and light rain was still cropping up near Tuscaloosa, so Decatur certainly wasn't out of the woods.
The surface reflection of a lower level trough was seen along the Mississippi-Alabama border near Columbus, Mississippi. Behind the low, a slow clearing pattern was taking hold in Mississippi. Model output was indicating the surface low would shift northeast to the Carolinas, though it is a little unclear what will happen in the wake of the system. It seems as though low clouds in northern Alabama are providing feedback to the GFS model for Tuesday, but Monday will still likely be drizzly.
Tomorrow - Cloudy with some scattered showers, High 76, Low 60
Tuesday - Morning clouds, then clearing late, High 81, Low 57
TWC: Tomorrow - AM Clouds / PM Sun High 79, Low 60
Tuesday - Partly Cloudy High 80, Low 60
AW: Tomorrow - Rather cloudy with a shower in spots High 76, Low 59
Tuesday - Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a shower or thunderstorm around, mainly later High 81, Low 56
NWS: Tomorrow - A slight chance of showers before 1pm. Mostly cloudy High 78, Low 58
Tuesday - Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 57
WB: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the morning High 78, Low 58
Tuesday - Partly cloudy. high 81, Low 57
It's quite apparent that the forecast in Decatur is going to come down to what happens with the rain over the next two days. Forecasts are all over the map. Radar for now shows that the bulk of it is off to the east for now.
Clouds Claim Hickory
Posted by Ryan
There has been a weak little trough (speaking isobarically) moving through the southeastern United States, kicking up some showers and thunderstorms across Dixieland. In Hickory, North Carolina, however, they managed to avoid the thunderstorms, instead seeing some clouds that kept temperatures from reaching their full potential. The Weather Service did caught on to a slightly cooler pattern, and had the top forecast.
Actuals: Friday, High 73, Low 46
Saturday, High 73, Low 51
Grade: B
Atlanta, Georgia
Posted by Ryan
The ATL! One of the largest cities in the country, and the backyard of the Weather Channel. How's it going down there?
At 152PM, ET, Atlanta was reporting mostly cloudy skies and a temperature of 73. A broad, slowly devolving trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley was working to incorporate moisture into the southeastern US, including some clouds in north Georgia, slowly rising dew points and showers and storms much further to the southeast.
The nature of this system will leave it ill defined as it generally steers towards Atlanta. Expect a couple of days of garden variety thunderstorms in Atlanta Sunday and Monday, though as the low level trough tries to move over the Appalachians with little to no motivation, it will begin to expend copious amounts of moisture on Atlanta Monday morning. Two and a half days of rain in Atlanta could certainly mean a threat for some flooding in some places to begin the week.
Tomorrow - Rain with a few thunderstorms, High 72, Low 61
Monday - Heavy rain and some thunderstorms early, with clearing late, High 77, Low 62
TWC: Tomorrow - Rain / Thunder high 71, Low 62
Monday - T-Storms High 75, Low 63
AW: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm High 72, Low 60
Monday - A thick cloud cover with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm High 75, Low 61
NWS: Tomorrow - Showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. High 74, Low 63
Monday - A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, High 77, Low 62
WB: Tomorrow - Showers likely in the morning...then showers with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 74, low 62
Monday - Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 77, Low 62
It's going to be cloudy and a little nasty in Atlanta. I like the cooler forecasts of TWC and Atlanta, but it being the south, any little bit of sun will bump those temperatures. The local ATL radar is down, but you can see the majority of the rain is well off to the west at this point.
Showers expand their coverage
Posted by Ryan
Unfortunately for Fort Smith, Arkansas, and almost all of the foreasters for that fine city, the showers and thunderstorms associated with a low in Texas covered a lot more ground than had originally been in the forecast. Part of this had to do with the fact that the low slid north towards Dallas instead of east towards Houston. As a result, the only outlet to suggest a chance for showers in Fort Smith on Friday, Accuweather, won the forecast. The clouds and rain meant temperatures fell off a bit too. Still, temperatures in the 70s being "cooler" sounds pretty sweet.
Actuals: Thursday, High 83, Low 52
Friday, .01 inches of rain, High 76, Low 59
Grade: C
Eugene, Oregon
Posted by Ryan
I haven't advertised it as well as I should have, but today is a Blog Round-up game. Check out the bottom of the post for some Eugene-specific weather blogs!
At 854AM, PT, Eugene was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 48 degrees. An unusual but certainly welcome ridge of high pressure found itself parked over the Pacific Northwest, allowing the cool but dry conditions to overtake western Oregon. The most pleasant surprise that there was no moisture pinned to the Cascades, and the sun was shining in Eugene.
The ridge out west is setting up as a blocking ridge, something that usually occurs in the center of the country when it happens. It will shunt any inclement weather away from the city over the next couple of days, and Eugene might look forward to some sunny skies for a couple of days.
Tomorrow - Sunny, High 81, Low 37
Sunday - Still sunny and dry, High 84, Low 43
TWC: Tomorrow - Sunny High 80, Low 43
Sunday - Partly Cloudy High 83, Low 49
AW: Tomorrow - Sunny much of the time and very warm; a beautiful start to the weekend High 79, Low 36
Sunday - Very warm with sunshine High 86, Low 43
NWS: Tomorrow - Sunny, High 80, Low 44
Sunday - Sunny, High 85, Low 49
WB: Tomorrow - Sunny. High 79, Low 44
Sunday - Mostly sunny High 84, Low 49
That sounds like a pretty nice weekend in Eugene! Take a look below the (fairly empty) satellite image for a link to a Eugene area weather blog!
Eugene Blog Roundup!
KVAL Weather Blog - KVAL is the CBS station in Eugene. Today, they are covering the high pollen count in Eugene, thanks, no doubt to the sunny skies they are seeing in western Oregon.
There are a few other blogs that haven't been updated in some time on the main page of Google. Of course, this site is link #4 when searching "Eugene Weather Blog" so it appears KVAL is all you get!
Hickory, North Carolina
Posted by Ryan
Hickory is the name of a town that can only exist in a place like North Carolina. Hickory doesn't seem like city name that would exist west of the Mississippi, and would only exist where there is some open country. Anyways, forecasting for Hickory, here we go.
At 1153AM, ET, Hickory was reporting sunny skies and a temperature of 64. Dew points were lower than was seasonal, and there were only a few clouds, induced primarily by the Appalachians that rippled across the North Carolina sky.
High pressure will sit over the Carolinas the next two days. A trough developing over the western Gulf will drift east towards the Carolinas and may introduce some clouds on Saturday, but really, the next two days look tremendous in Hickory.
Tomorrow - Sunny, High 77, Low 47
Saturday - Partly Cloudy, High 78, Low 49
TWC: Tomorrow - Sunny High 74, Low 49
Saturday - Partly Cloudy High 77, Low 50
AW: Tomorrow - Nice with a full day of sunshine High 75, Low 46
Saturday - Nice with sunshine and patchy clouds High 79, Low 46
NWS: Tomorrow - Sunny high 74, Low 48
Saturday - Sunny High 76, Low 50
WB: Tomorrow - Sunny High 75, Low 47
Saturday - Sunny High 77, Low 48
I like the low dew points for allowing temperatures to climb rather effectively to end the week in Hickory. Satellite shows a meager smattering of clouds over North Carolina.
Almost perfect
Posted by Ryan
You could say the weather, which featured highs in the low 70s and sunny skies for two days in Joplin, was almost perfect (I would prefer an extra degree or two.) Or, you could say that The Weather Channel was almost perfect, missing by only one degree on the Tuesday high, but nailing it everywhere else.
Actuals: Tuesday, High 73, Low 52
Wednesday, High 72, Low 48
Grade: A
Fort Smith, Arkansas
Posted by Ryan
Nestled against the Oklahoma border, we head to Fort Smith for today's forecast.
At 1053AM, CT, Fort Smith was reporting a temperature of 75 degrees with clear skies. Light northwest winds were being seen behind a lower level boundary along the Gulf Coast, while an upper trough was working its way through the center of the country, though that particular boundary is inactive, bringing about only a slight temperature drop in its wake.
A weak surface disturbance over downstate Texas will pump some moisture northward, bringing Fort Smith back to this season's normal humidity levels, however the associated return flow with the trough will not be strong enough to push actual precipitation into western Arkansas, leaving the area dry for the next two days.
Tomorrow - Sunny, High 79, Low 51
Friday - Still warm and mostly sunny, a bit more humid, High 79, Low 56
TWC: Tomorrow - Sunny, High 80, Low 49
Friday - Mostly Cloudy High 80, Low 56
AW: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny and pleasant high 80, Low 49
Friday - Clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 78, Low 55
NWS: Tomorrow - Sunny, high 80, Low 51
Friday - Mostly sunny High 80, Low 55
WB: Tomorrow - Sunny.High 79, Low 51
Friday - Mostly sunny High 79, Low 54
Pretty quiet in Fort Smith, unless you ask Accuweather. Not a bad day to be down there in Razorback country.
Rainy days and Mondays
Posted by Ryan
It was a little bit dank and depressing in Elmira the past several days. A lower level system set up over the eastern Great Lakes and brought a steady rain, and an even more strident cloud deck. Temperatures were cooler than expected, but warmer over night because of the clouds. Victoria-Weather and The Weather Channel tied for the top spot.
Actuals: Monday - .2 inches of rain, High 59, Low 48
Tuesday - .49 inches of rain, High 64, Low 53
Grade: C