Category Archives: Forecast

Weather Wayback – Holiday hangover

As we approach Thanksgiving 2018, we can look back to Christmas 2017 and think “wow, what happened there?” Shortly after Christmas, Anthony put together an unusually chilly forecast for Tallahassee, and much to the surprise of all interested parties, a cold frnt made it even colder than anyone expected. Nearly half an inch of rain fell on December 27th, and on the 28th, temperatures only made it to 48, a far cry from the forecast highest in the upper 50s.It was a bad forecast across the board, but the NWS and WeatherNation ultimately pulled off a sllightly better forecast.
Actuals Thursday December 27th, .41 inches of rain,  High 50, Low 43
Friday December 28th, High 48, Low 33

Grade: C-D

Deltona, Florida

Let’s think about a trip down to the Sunshine State shall we? Mmm, that IS quite nice. If your imagination isn’t there yet, why not enjoy this forecast telling you exactly what the weather looks like?

At 853PM, ET, Deltona was reporting a temperature of 72 degrees. There were light showers being reported near Orlando, but they weren’t perceptible on radar, though there were a few areas that looked suspicious on the water vapor imagery. There was a light onshore flow south of a diminishing front in the northern part of the state.
The lingering boundary to the north will continue to diminish as the base of an upper level trough helps with the explosive develop a strong area of low pressure at the surface over Texas. It will collect a massive amount of moisture as the system drives to the northeast. Warm, moist flow will be transported across Florida as the system tracks through the Tennessee Valley. Florida will be dry on Monday, but as the boundary lifts to the northeast, and a cold front moves into Alabama and Georgia, cross flow across Florida will increase, and scattered showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly likely for Deltona on Tuesday evening.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 68
Tuesday – Scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, High 88, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine in the morning with more clouds for later in the day. High 86, Low 68
Tuesday – Partly cloudy early with thunderstorms becoming likely during the afternoon.  High 87, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 86, Low 68
Tuesday – Times of clouds and sun, a shower or thunderstorm around High 87, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, High 87, Low 66
Tuesday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 88, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Considerable cloudiness with a slight chance of showers,  High 83, Low 69
Tuesday – Considerable cloudiness with a chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms, High 85, Low 71

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 88, Low 67
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 88, Low 71

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 85, Low 66
Tuesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 86, Low 67

Here is a look at the satellite I reference. A couple off pop up clouds near Orlando, even if I can’t see them on radar. 

All verifications, all the time

One thing that readers tell us all the time, is that, if we could just post nothing but verifications all the time, it would really improve the site. Well, here you are, faithful readers, the fourth in a row! OK, nobody is demanding that, but we are cleaning up some back log, including this look at Huntsville, where they remain behind a front late last week. There was a steady stream of moisture into northern Alabama from the west, sprinkling the area with, well, sprinkles. Temperatures ere held in check by the persistent overcast, particularly overnight, when the Thursday morning low was only 4 degrees cooler than the afternoon high. Forecast.io had the top forecast in the Alabama’s tech capital. 
Actuals: Wednesday – .06 inches of rain, High 62, Low 45
Thursday – .03 inches of rain, High 55, Low 51

Grade: B-C

Duluth doldrums

Lake effect snow is certainly something that CAN happen in Duluth, but it is not something that happens often, thanks entirely to the fact that it is on the northwest shore of Lake Superior, and is rarely downwind from the Lake. There was some easterly flow, though, early this week, and though most of the snow fell up the shore, there was quarter inch of liquid in Duluth, but the big impact was the thick layer of clouds smothering town, keeping temperatures fairly static through the period. Victoria-Weather put together the top forecast. 
Actuals: Monday – .11 inches of liquid in snow, High 39, low 35
Tuesday  .13 inches of liquid in snow, High 39, Low 31

Grade A- C

November takes a turn

We forecast for Harrisburg at the beginning of the month, and had to watch as the Keystone capital was battered by successive rounds of low pressure centers moving from Texas to New England. One of the heaviest batches if rain came through on Thursday, with nearly 2 inches of accumulation swamping the city. At least it was a work day, right? A good work day to remain indoors, it seems. Forecast.io and The Weather Channel came together to put forth the top forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 74, Low 50
Thursday – High 69, Low 54

Grade: C

 

No Battle in Battle Creek

As expected, some light rain fell late Sunday night and lingered into Monday morning. Luckily it wasn’t a washout for Battle Creek, as amounts stayed under 0.05″ total. Weather Channel ran away with the win, as their slightly warmer forecast proved to be the difference.

Sunday: 0.02″ of rain. High 55, Low 41.
Monday: 0.02″ of rain. High 51, Low 47.
Forecast Grade: A-

Columbus, Indiana

Sorry for the super late post, day kinda gets away from you when its Election Day! I hope you all got out and voted! Let’s take a look at how things are faring in Indiana, weather-wise anyways.

At 945pm EST, the temperature at Columbus, IN was 48 degrees under clear skies (below 12,000 feet). I have to make that distinction because when automated systems report “SKC” (sky clear), the sensor only registers up to 12,000 feet. So, while it may report clear skies, there can still be clouds higher up that are passing over the region like they are right now. A nose of high pressure is pushing its way over the Ohio Valley, and looks to keep the area dry and pleasant Wednesday and through much of Thursday as well. This area breaks down as Thursday progresses and a new area of low pressure starts to develop over the Mid-MS River Valley. Showers should hold off long enough so as to remain dry until early Friday morning when the system really pushes through.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 50, Low 35.
Thursday: Increasing clouds in evening. High 48, Low 29.

TWC: Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 54, Low 36.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High 51, Low 30.

AW: Wednesday: Partly sunny; breezy. High 54, Low 36.
Thursday: Clouds and sun; chilly. High 50, Low 30.

NWS: Wednesday: Isolated early morning sprinkles, then mostly sunny. High 51, Low 36.
Thursday: Partly sunny, increasing clouds late. High 49, Low 30.

WB: Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 50, Low 35.
Thursday: Partly cloudy, possible late night shower. High 47, Low 31.

WN: Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 51, Low 36.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 49, Low 30.

FIO: Wednesday: Partly cloudy starting in the morning, continuing until evening. High 52, Low 37.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy starting overnight, continuing until evening. High 48, Low 29.

We see some clouds traversing the region currently, but looks like it’ll be a fairly nice couple of days coming up!

Huntsville, Alabama

The southeast has been in the crosshairs for the last few days. Huntsville dodged bullets last night, but they won’t be able to steer clear of the cold air coming their way.

At 953AM, CT, Huntsville was reporting overcast skies with a temperature of 64 degrees. Clear skies were developing as near as Muscle Shoals and across the border in Tennessee, so a sunny afternoon in Huntsville is quite likely. Brisk northerly flow can be  anticipated to keep the day from being perfect. An active pattern aloft will also ensure that these clear conditions won’t last too long. 
An undercutting jet streak driving through the Lower Mississippi Valley will continue to destabilize Dixieland enough that light showers and clouds will remain in the forecast for the next couple of days. The southerly streak will pull the mean trough further south over the Southern Plains, which will induce a moisture rich southerly flow on Thursday, meaning a touch warmer weather, though rain is still a possibility.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, with scattered showers, High 58, Low 45
Thursday – A touch warmer, but with a continued threat of scattered showers, High 60, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers early with overcast skies later in the day. High 60, Low 45
Thursday – Partly cloudy in the morning. Increasing clouds with periods of showers later in the day High 60, Low 47

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, a couple of showers; cooler High 62, Low 46
Thursday – Mostly cloudy; a passing morning shower, then periods of rain and a thunderstorm High 59, Low 49

NWS: Tomorrow – A 50 percent chance of showers, mainly after 10am. Mostly cloudy High 64, Low 48
Thursday – A 50 percent chance of showers, mainly after 8am. Mostly cloudy,  High 61, Low 47

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain showers. High 58, Low 47
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain showers. High 59, Low 48

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 64, Low 48
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 61, Low 47

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain starting in the morning, continuing until afternoon. High 61, Low 45
Thursday – Rain starting in the morning, continuing until afternoon. High 58, Low 49

Here is a look at the satellite, with a nice slice of dry air, but more rain expected through the work week.

Duluth, Minnesota

I’m not entirely sure the reason, but we’ve definitely been pulling in a lot of Minnesota forecasts lately. One would hope that this homefield advantage does us some favors, though.

At 802PM, CT, Duluth was reporting a temperature of 35 degrees with light snow. The airport lies uphill and away from Lake Superior, so the downtown area, and Superior across the border in Wisconsin were reporting rain. Snow was more vigorous in Arrowhead, and accompanied by strong winds coming off of the Lake. A broad trough lies over the northern US, and there is an embedded shorter wave over the upper Midwest, leading to a surface wave centered over Wisconsin, with the back end bringing the wet weather to the North Shore.
The short wave will merge into the broad trough, and the low over Wisconsin will spiral back into a broader surface low arriving from the Dakotas. Lingering rain and snow showers will continue through most of the day tomorrow, particularly north of Duluth, before the larger system moves into northern Minnesota by tomorrow evening. Tuesday will be a wet day, with some rain, but snow as well, particularly in the afternoon and evening, as cold air pivots into the region. Up to 2″ are possible. 
Tomorrow – Generally overcast with a few spots of snow and rain showers, High 38, Low 34
Tuesday – Rain snow mix, High 39, Low 34

TWC: Tomorrow – Considerable cloudiness. Occasional rain showers in the afternoon. High 41, Low 36
Tuesday – Occasional light rain. High 40, Low 35

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, a stray shower High 43, Low 36
Tuesday – Periods of snow and rain; breezy High 43, Low 36

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of rain and snow before 9am, then a slight chance of rain after 5pm. Cloudy High 41, Low 35
Tuesday – Rain. High 41, Low 34

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. A slight chance of light snow in the morning, then a slight chance of light rain in the afternoon. High 41, Low 36
Tuesday – Light rain possibly mied with snow. High 40, Low 35

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light wintry mix likely, High 40, Low 35
Tuesday – Cloudy with light wintry mix, High 40, Low 36

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain starting in the evening. High 43, Low 38
Tuesday – Light rain overnight. High 43, Low 37

Temperatures are pretty borderline, but the fact that some snow has already fallen, and more cold air is going to fill in aloft, I fell comfortable putting snow in the forecast. Here is the radar with snow across Lake Superior.

Battle Creek, Michigan

As we enter Standard Time, let’s take a look at what it’ll be like in Michigan for the first couple post-DST days.

At 953pm EST, the temperature at Battle Creek, MI was 41 degrees under overcast skies. An area of low pressure shifting into the Mid-MS River Valley extends a warm front of sorts into Lower Michigan, which is bringing some light rain showers with it. These light morning showers should trail off by the late morning, with cloudy skies persisting throughout the day. As the low pressure lifts into the Upper Midwest, rain chances increase as the cold front swings through Michigan. Heavy rains aren’t expected though, as the front seems to want to dissipate as it traverses the region. Rain showers trail off early Monday morning as the system pushes off to the northeast, leading to fairly quiet daytime hours. Another quick moving low pressure system is on its heels, however, and looks to move into Lower Michigan late Monday night, bringing in some more rain showers before midnight.

Sunday: Rain chances increase throughout the day. High 51, Low 37.
Monday: Early morning showers, cloudy in afternoon, light night rain chances again. High 53, Low 44.

TWC: Sunday: Showers. High 54, Low 38.
Monday: Mostly cloudy, few showers. High 51, Low 46.

AW: Sunday: Periods of rain; windy. High 52, Low 38.
Monday: Mostly cloudy. High 52, Low 45.

NWS: Sunday: Chance of showers then rain likely. High 51, Low 34.
Monday: Rain likely then mostly cloudy. High 52, Low 44.

WB: Sunday: 80% chance of rain. High 52, Low 36.
Monday: Mostly cloudy, scattered showers. High 50, Low 47.

WN: Sunday: Cloudy with chance of light showers. High 51, Low 34.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with light rain likely. High 52, Low 44.

FIO: Sunday: Overcast throughout the day and breezy in evening, late night rain showers. High 53, Low 37.
Monday: Light rain overnight. High 49, Low 43.

Here we see the light rain showers lifting up over WI and through Lake Michigan into northern Indiana. This activity will be the start of a rather soggy next couple of days.