Category Archives: Forecast

Bridgeport, Connecticut

Things are looking dicey for the Upper Midwest this weekend with a massive late season storm on it’s way into town. Meanwhile, out east, spring is actually on its way.

At 352PM, ET, Bridgeport was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 68 degrees, a luxurious mid April afternoon. A weaker system over New Brunswick tailed a cold front that mergd with a warm front in the Great Lakes, which was tied to a much stronger feature. All this meant southerly flow rushing to low pressure along the boundary, and warm temperatures in the wake. There were some sea breeze clouds in central Connecticut, but Bridgeport was unbothered.
The next strong system is presently in the Great Lakes, and will approach Bridgeport through the weekend. An aggressive, moisture rich southerly flow will arrive in town late on Saturday, and the threat for light showers will linger throughout most of the day on Sunday. These will be a function of the strong southerly flow and moisture, as Bridgeport will continue to lie south of the warm front and still east of the rapidly occluding cold font. Most activity in the area will be as a result of free convection, and should be pretty mild. Temperatures will struggle thanks to the cloud cover and advancing cold front.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, becoming cloudy with drizzle late, High 68, Low 40
Sunday – Scattered showers, High 40, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies during the morning hours will give way to occasional showers in the afternoon. High 65, Low 45
Sunday – Cloudy with showers.  High 45, Low 37

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny (late rain)High 69, Low 44
Sunday – Much colder with on-and-off rain and drizzle High 44, Low 39

NWS: Tomorrow – Increasing clouds (late rain) High 64, Low 42
Sunday – Light rain likely. Cloudy,  High 42, Low 35

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny, (rain late) High 63, Low 45
Sunday – Light rain likely, Much colder, High 45, Low 40

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers High 62, Low 43
Sunday – Cloudy with light rain, High 40, Low 35

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy starting in the afternoon and breezy starting in the evening. (late rain) High 68, Low 42
Sunday – Breezy throughout the day and light rain overnight. High 41, Low 36

I wouldn’t be surprised if they can break out on Sunday and our highs are too low, but right now, it looks pretty overcast. Here is the current satellite, with nary a hint of overcast, at least in southwest Connecticut.

March forecaster of the month

Is it summer yet? No? The longest winter in some time is continuing unabated, with systems plowing the East Coast and cold weather entrenched in the Plains, March was lion all the way through. April hasn’t been that great to start off either, but it seemed to work out well for Victoria-Weather, who forecasted like the cold didn’t bother them. Even if the weather doesn’t turn around, we will certainly hope that that the forecasting skill continues at the same pace.

Back when forecasts were good

After such a cataclysmic verification for Rapid City yesterday, let’s step back in time, to the middle of September. The weather was dry in northern California, and the forecasting was easy. Sacramento was the scene of one of those forecasts, and while forecasts were a bit warm, they were only a handful of degrees, and not 10-15 degrees over the mark, as they were in South Dakota. Yes, these were indeed better days. Back then, we even let Weatherbug win a forecast every now and again. Crazy times I tell you.
Actuals: September 13th – High 79, Low 63
September 14th – High 78, Low 62

Grade A-B

Memphis, Tennessee

As snow showers plague much of the northern US, we head down to the lovely city of Memphis to see what kind of weather they’ll be greeted with to start the weekend. It’s gotta be warmer than up here!

At 1054pm CDT, the temperature at Memphis, TN was 54 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. A weak disturbance is kicking up some rain showers and spotty thunderstorms already over eastern Arkansas which looks like they’ll drift over the Memphis area in the pre-dawn hours Friday. By daybreak this activity should dissipate and shift off to the east, however, as an area of low-pressure develops over the Red River Valley, it’ll set up a warm front over eastern OK into western AR, sparking a wide area of showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Best chance of seeing this activity roll through will be in the late-afternoon and evening hours before activity starts to push south of the area late-evening. Some light showers look to linger in the area through midnight but then dies out early Saturday morning. Clouds remain throughout the day until a nose of high pressure pushes into the region in the afternoon, clearing out the remaining clouds and making for a very nice rest of the weekend.

Friday: Scattered rain showers and possible thunderstorms. High 61, Low 45.
Saturday: Few isolated pre-dawn showers, clouds decreasing through the day. High 48, Low 37.

TWC: Friday: Rain. High 58, Low 47.
Saturday: Morning clouds, afternoon sun. High 50, Low 33.

AW: Friday: Heavy rain and a thunderstorm. High 60, Low 47.
Saturday: Breezy with clouds breaking, spotty morning showers. High 50, Low 35.

NWS: Friday: Showers likely then showers (huh?). High 60, Low 44.
Saturday: Slight chance of showers. High 49, Low 36.

WB: Friday: Thunderstorms. High 57, Low 47.
Saturday: Some early morning showers, then mostly sunny. High 47, Low 37.

WN: Friday: Cloudy with showers. High 60, Low 44.
Saturday: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. High 49, Low 36.

FIO: Friday: Rain overnight and in the morning and breezy starting in the evening. High 56, Low 46.
Saturday: Isolated morning shower, breezy until morning and mostly cloudy until evening. High 47, Low 33.

Some shower activity is already developing over Eastern Arkansas and looks to continue expanding eastward during the early morning hours Friday. Better bring your umbrella cause it’s gonna be a soggy day.

Cold was expected, then it was even colder

The Northern Plains are in a vicious cycle, with waves of inclement weather sweeping into the area, bringing more cold and more snow to an area that doesn’t need it. Of course, in early April, what part of the country DOES need it? With that premise in mind, it’s even more frustrating for residents of western South Dakota that it was even colder than expected. A system moved through Rapid City and brought temperatures below freezing for almost the entirety of of the 48 hour verification period. There was also a nearly 5″ snowfall accumulation, which nobody needed, certainly. This snow, and these cold temperatures took everyone off guard, and forecasts were as terrible as the weather. Forecast.io barely had the best forecast, but it wasn’t particularly good.
Actuals: Monday – 2″ of snow, High 34, Low 16
Tuesday – 2.3″ of snow, High 21, Low 9

Grade: F

Rapid City, South Dakota

It’s time for the first forecast for the month of April. Hopefully, we’ll be a little more active this month, and the weather will start to get a little bit warmer.

At 1052, MT, Rapid City was reporting a temperature of 33 degrees with clear skies. Most of south Dakota was clear this evening, but that was leading to temperatures that were increasingly below normal for the beginning of April. A small consolation was the south wind across the state, associated with a warm front tied to low pressure centered directly to the north of Rapid City, near Spearfish. This area of low pressure was associated with a broader field of low pressure centered over Yellowstone.
As the feature moves over the Rockies Mountains, it will deepen in the lee area of eastern Colorado, though Raid City will remain in the warm sector of the low, as the warm front will continue to be analyzed through central South Dakota for most of the day on Monday. Cold air will begin to invade Montana and Wyoming at the back end of this system, likely reaching Rapid City by late Monday evening, and snow is likely to fall heavily through the night into Tuesday morning. Fortunately, the upper level trough, as well as the surface reflection will mature and move quickly.  The sun will be shining by Tuesday afternoon, ready to melt the quick, fresh several inches of snow in the region.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with flurries, becoming heavy snow late, High 42, Low 25
Tuesday – Heavy snow early, quickly clearing in the afternoon. 2-5″ storm total, High 32, Low 17

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies during the morning hours will give way to cloudy skies with light rain and snow developing in the afternoon. High 41, Low 25
Tuesday – Cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon.  (early snow)High 32, Low 17

AW: Tomorrow – Rather cloudy with a shower in the area in the afternoon High 46, Low 22
Tuesday – A flurry around in the morning; otherwise, times of clouds and sun High 32, Low 16

NWS:  Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of rain after 3pm. Mostly cloudy (late snow), High 43, Low 26
Tuesday – A 20 percent chance of snow before noon. Mostly cloudy, High 30, Low 17

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning with a 40 percent chance of rain in the afternoon (late snow) High 41, Low 22
Tuesday  –  Breezy. Mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of snow in the morning, High 31, Low 18

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light wintry mix likely. High 43, Low 24
Tuesday – Windy with isolated snow showers, High 30, low 17

FIO: Tomorrow – Snow (1–3 in.) starting in the evening. High 39, Low 24
Tuesday – Snow (< 1 in.) overnight. High 32, Low 16

Looks like I am on the high side for snow, but I also know that the Rapid City area is also on the high side, abutting the Black Hills as it does. Higher terrain is bound to have more snow. A look at the radar shows a few wisps of light rain close to the North Dakota border. It’s snowing to beat the band in Billings right now, and all that is moving to the east.

Spring is in Texas

I’m not talking about the town of Spring, Texas, which is a real place. No, I’m talking about the weather in Houston at the beginning of the week. Temperatures were in the 80s  for highs on Monday and Tuesday… 82 both days, to be exact. Houston did have to contend with some high humidity, and onshore flow resulted sprinkles on Tuesday afternoon, but by golly, the northern part of the country is going to dip all the way down to single digits this weekend, so to me, 82 and humid sounds fine, with or with a bit of rain. Weatherbug snuck in and picked off the top forecasts by just a hair.

Actuals: Monday – High 82, Low 69
Tuesday – .04 inches of rain, High 82, Low 73

Grade A – C

Houston, Texas

We’re headed to a part of the world that was very much in the news for its weather this summer. The good news is, Houston is on a path towards recovery, and part of it will be this week. How is it going to look?

At 1153,PM, CT, Houston was reporting mostly cloudy skies and a soupy 71 degrees with a dew point in the upper 60s. Low pressure was developing over west Texas, while a jet ridge was strengthening, pressing northeast towards the middle of the country.  On shore flow across Houston will keep things humid and mostly cloudy, even as high pressure settled in over the Gulf.
Behind the ridge in the middle of the country is a negatively tilted trough, with the west Texas low sitting in the deepest point. A surface feature will move to the northeast, towards the Great Lakes, and help drive some cold air southeastward and advance the trough. As a cold front approaches Texas, the onshore flow will kick into high gear. While the strong thunderstorms will stay inland on Tuesday, expect a near constant threat of low clouds and rain, with an isolated stroke of lightning.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 84, Low 70
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with isolated showers and an even more isolated thunderstorm, High 82, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. High 84, Low 70
Tuesday – Scattered thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. High 84, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Times of sun and clouds High 84, Low 70
Tuesday – Periods of clouds and sun High 82, Low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – Isolated showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, High 83, Low 68
Tuesday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, High 82, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Parrtly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms n the afternoon. High 72, Low 69
Tuesday – Partly cloudy early in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then a 30 percent chance in the afternoon, High 82, Low 71

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 83, Low 68
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered storms, High 82, Low 69

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 84, Low 71
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 84, Low 74

Here is a look at the satellite. the brighter blues represent about the point that the onshore flow is reaching this evening.

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES-16 ABI BAND 13 OR_ABI-L1b-RadC-M3C13_G16_s20180850517268_e20180850520052_c20180850520101.nc

Strong enough to clear the Sierras

There is a large system battering the West Coast this week, though it is second fiddle to the next in a long line of features pummeling the East Coast. Carson City lies in the rain shadow of the Sierras around Lake Tahoe, and to demonstrate just how strong this feature was, I can say that it even produced a little rain yesterday in the Nevada capital. The real show was closer to the coast where there was concern about landslides, and in the mountains, impressive snowfall. In Carson City, though, we had a forecast, and Accuweather correctly anticipated the strength of this system, and had a very good, very accurate forecast.
Actuals: Monday, High 50, Low 23
Tuesday – Rain reported, not measured, High 48, Low 30

Grade: A-C

Carson City, Nevada

Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 51, Low 22
Tuesday – Chance of late showers,, High 53, Low 30

TWC: Tomsorrow – Sunny, High 51, Low 22
Tuesday – Cloudy, High 50, Low 31

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and cold High 50, Low 23
Tuesday – Cold with considerable cloudiness; rain arriving in the afternoon High 51, Low 30

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 52, Low 25
Tuesday –  A 20 percent chance of rain after 11am. High 53, Low 30

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. High 49, Low 21
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain and snow in the afternoon, High 45, Low 28

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 52, Low 25
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 53, Low 30

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy until night. High 62, Low 29
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. (late rain) High 52, Low 31

I obviously saw something in the forecast after I recorded. Temps will be a hair warmer than I said. Other than that, no big changes.