Category Archives: Forecast

Terre Haute, Indiana

While most of the country is keeping an eye on Hurricane Irma, and rightfully so, it’s still a few days away from possibly affecting mainland US. So in the meantime, let’s take a look at what’s happening in the Hoosier State.

At 1053pm EDT, the temperature at Terre Haute, IN was 76 degrees under overcast skies. It was quite the balmy day in Terre Haute today as it got into the 90s, but then the cold front finally swung through during the later evening hours, ushering in some much cooler air over the next couple of days. A decent line of thunderstorms worked its way through the area this evening as well, but luckily for Terre Haute they just missed off to the northeast. A couple of isolated showers are lingering behind the front but should avoid the Terre Haute area as they trek off towards the east-southeast. As high pressure builds in throughout the Midwest over the next couple days, rather cool and pleasant weather is anticipated over the region. Dry weather is expected to last throughout the week actually, so a nice start to Meteorological Fall looks to be in store!

Tuesday: Clouds decreasing through morning, mostly sunny by afternoon. High 75, Low 54.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 68, Low 47.

TWC: Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High 76, Low 58.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 69, Low 47.

AW: Tuesday: Cooler with periods of sun, an isolated morning shower possible. High 76, Low 59.
Wednesday: Pleasantly cool with some sun. High 70, Low 47.

NWS: Tuesday: Slight chance of some early morning showers, then mostly sunny. High 74, Low 57.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 71, Low 49.

WB: Tuesday: Mostly sunny, chance of early morning storms. High 74, Low 58.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 67, Low 50.

WN: Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 73, Low 59.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 72, Low 48.

FIO: Tuesday: Rain overnight, skies clearing by afternoon. High 73, Low 58.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy starting in the evening. High 68, Low 47.

A broken line of thunderstorms rumbled through the region earlier this evening as a cold front moved on through. The next few days will be much nicer however!

Monterey Bay, a world apart

If you look for weather headlines, aside from the recovery from Harvey in Houston, to the looming danger from Irma in the north Atlantic, the next big story is the heat and fire danger out west. Earlier it was Seattle and Portland that experienced record heat, but last week, it was San Francisco. Los Angeles is seeing a wild fire in an area that hasn’t seen such an event in 80 years. Meanwhile, in places like Monterey Bay, and in particular, Santa Cruz, temperatures as of mid-week remained in the mid 70s for highs. The cold Pacific and a barrier of mountains to the east do a good job keeping anything but cool temperatures out of the area. With regards to the forecast for the area, Victoria-Weather collected the top marks for the city by the sea.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 72, Low 57
Wednesday – High 76, Low 52

Grade: B-C

Savannah dodges a tropical storm

Last weekend, as Harvey was bringing devastation to east Texas, there was another area that seemed like a possibly organizing tropical feature over north Florida. Much to the surprise of nearly everyone, the feature never became a tropical storm, and it only grazed Savannah with a little bit of light rain on Sunday and Monday. The narrow temperature trends were well anticipated by everyone, and the collective forecast was pretty good. The Weather Channel nosed the rest of us to claim a razor thin victory.
Sunday – .07 inches of rain, High 84, Low 75
Monday – .03 inches of rain, High 79, Low 70

Grade: A-B

Austin, Texas

After such a terrible week of weather in southern Texas, we will get an update. Austin wasn’t one of the cities that felt a direct impact by Harvey, but they are housing many of the refugees and were themselves battered by Harvey’s initial rounds of wind and rain. Are things on the upswing in Texas? Let’s explore.

At 1253AM, CT, Austin was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 71 degrees. Lingering moisture allowed the dew points to reach the upper 60s to low 70s across the region, with fog settling in near the coast, and likely to build towards Austin overnight. Some convection churning over northern Mexico is triggering some clouds, which may spill across the border, but otherwise, a clear night is expected for Austin.
High pressure is going to keep a hold on the southern United States for the Labor Day weekend. In north Texas, there might be a rogue thunderstorm that pops up thanks to an upper level ripple, but the region will enjoy some clear skies and a chance to recuperate from the devastation that came to the area last week.
Tomorrow – Morning fog with sun, High 92, Low 69
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 73

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 95, Low 70
Sunday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 95, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 93, Low 70
Sunday – Partial sunshine with a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 91, Low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 92, Low 69
Sunday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy, High 91, Low 70
Sunday – Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 90, Low 72

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 75
Sunday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 91, Low 72

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 91, Low 71
Sunday – Partly cloudy starting overnight.High 89, Low 73

Here is a look at the satellite, with clouds in Mexico. The good news is that we are looking at dry skies for at least a few days. Even if those that had rain in the forecast on Sunday are right, it shouldn’t be that much.

Weather Wayback … back when the weather changed in the west

Whatever headlines we see for the center and eastern parts of the country, it seems, as of late, the weather out west has remained the same. Dry and hot. Back in May, however, it wasn’t quite the same situation, and after a system moved out of the western US and into the Rockies, there was a splash of rain in our early May forecast for Grand Junction, and it wasn’t much of a surprise. Nowadays? It would definitely be a surprise, and a welcome relief. Back in May, up in the mountains of the central Rockies, the National Weather Service had the top forecast.
Actuals: Friday, May 5th, High 87, Low 48
Saturday, May 6th, .06 inches of rain, High 83,, Low 52

Grade: A-C

Santa Cruz, California

So much attention has been focused on southeastern Texas and Harvey – and rightfully so, of course- that there is almost no concept of what the whether is doing elsewhere right now. A preview: it’s hot out west.

At 948PM, PT, Watsonville/Santa Cruz was reporting overcast skies with fog and a temperature of 59 degrees. Heat advisories were out for the interior Valley, but from San Francisco Bay to Monterey Bay, Pacific flow, clouds and morning and evening fog were all conspiring to keep temperatures livable. In fact, the heat advisories and red flag warnings have all been stripped away from the Bay area.
There is a weak trough moving through upper levels of the atmosphere, and will traverse California through the day Wednesday, and should ultimately lead to a dissipation of the fog and low clouds, at least in the later evening on Wednesday. Temperatures inland will respond by cooling off, but with fewer clouds, it may warm slightly along the coast with less afternoon overcast.
Tomorrow – Morning and evening fog. High 73, Low 55
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies.  High 74, Low 58
Wednesday – Sunny skies. High 77, Low 56

AW:: Tomorrow – Nice with areas of low clouds early on; otherwise, mostly sunny High 74, Low 58
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and cool High 75, Low 58

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, Hgh 70, Low 58
Wednesday – Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, High 71, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Patchy fog in the morning, High 69, Low 57
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. High 71, Low 57

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 57
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 57

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy until afternoon. High 69, Low 54
Wednesday – Partly cloudy in the morning. High 70, Low 54

Temperatures are all over the map. It will depend greatly on what the clouds do along the coast.  Speaking of, here is the satellite, with some low overcast barely showing up around Monterey Bay.

Irma isn’t around to keep it cool

Most of the forecasts for Columbia incorporated some organization to the potential tropical storm off the Georgia coast. Alas, this storm, a future Irma, was not yet to be. Columbia didn’t enjoy any respite from clouds, and no temperate air was brought in to reduce temperatures. Instead, it was a typical August swelter in the South Carolina capital, with temperatures touching the 90s each day this weekend. Weatherbug still managed to hang on to a pretty decent forecast, winning the day.
Actuals: Saturday – High 92, Low 73
Sunday – High 90, Low 72

Grade B-C

A Game of Miles

It looked like St. Cloud would get a couple isolated showers early Thursday morning before they scattered out, but not only did they manage to dodge the rain showers, the clouds cleared out a couple hours before dawn, causing temperatures to drop a few degrees more than expected. That messed with the forecasts a bit and caused the temperature errors to be larger than expected. TWC nabbed the top spot by a single degree.

Thursday: High 72, Low 50.
Friday: 0.30″ of rain. High 69, Low 55.
Forecast Grade: B

Savannah, Georgia

Our most recent forecast was for Columbia, while tonight’s will be just a bit to the south in Savannah. The change will likely be considerable, given the threat for Irma to develop.

At 153AM, ET, Savannah was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with fair skies. There was a northeasterly flow across the region, feeding a tropical feature organizing over north Florida. As it shifts offshore though tomorrow morning, the storm will likely organize into a low grade Tropical Storm, with moisture organizing and becoming more widespread, spreading into the Georgia coast by afternoon.
The heaviest rain will remain off shore no matter how well it organizes. There is a great deal of discrepency between short range models and the GFS over the feature’s intensification, but at present within the North American modeling matrix, the NAM has been initiating better, and it seems likely that a rainier solution is in the offing. The feature will move fairly quickly, and by the end of the day Tuesday, expect the skies to begin clearing.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, with rain, High 82, Low 75
Monday – Rain, clearing late, High 80, Low 73

TWC: Tomorrow – Thunderstorms likely in the morning. Then the chance of scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 83, Low 75
Monday – Thunderstorms likely in the morning. Then the chance of scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 80, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Rather cloudy and breezy with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm High 84, Low 75
Monday – Mostly cloudy and breezy (scattered rain early/late) High 83, low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 7am. Mostly cloudy, High 83, Low 75
Monday – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, High 83, Low 73

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 82, Low 75
Monday – Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 80, Low 74

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 82, Low 75
Monday – Mostly cloudy with isolated storms, High 82, Low 73

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain throughout the day and breezy starting in the afternoon. High 82, Low 75
Monday – Rain throughout the day and breezy until afternoon. High 79, Low 74

Here is a look at the spaghetti plots for the wave in over Florida. Nothing organized, and no direct shots at Savannah.