Category Archives: Forecast

Lancaster, Pennsylvania

We’re going on another forecasting adventure today, taking a trip to southeastern Pennsylvania. This is Amish country, which is important because with the rain on the way, horseback is going to be an efficient way to travel.

At 1253PM, ET, Lancaster was reporting light rain with overcast skies and a temperature of 53 degrees. Eastern Pennsylvania lies at the tail of a cold front extending from the Atlantic and the forward edge of a warm front eminating from the southern Plains, and that convergence is producing a great deal of rain, with the bulk of it closer to Wilkes-Barre and dwindling shower activity in southeastern Pennsylvania.
The feature in the plains will organize as it moves towards the Ohio Valley, and early on Friday there will be a respite from the shower activity.As the feature approches, however, showers will build back into the Lancaster area Friday evening. An inverted trough will develop on the northwestern flank of the feature, extending over eastern Pennsylvania and staying put, effectively ruining Saturday thanks to a cool, persistent rain.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a bit of drizzle, High 59, Low 47
Saturday – Rain throughout the day, High 54, Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow -Cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 58, Low 47
Saturday – Rain, High 52, Low 47

AW: Tomorrow -Considerable cloudiness with a shower High 58, Low 47
Saturday – Breezy with periods of rain High 53, Low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of light rain, mainly after 10am. Cloudy High 58, Low 48
Saturday – Rain, High 55, Low 48

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 58, Low 50
Saturday – Rain. Rain may be heavy at times in the afternoon, High 53, low 50

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with patchy light drizzle, High 57, low 48
Saturday – Cloudy with rain, High 55, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow A chance of light rain, mainly after 10am. Cloudy High 61, Low 47
Saturday – Rain until evening.High 53, Low 48

Well, that’s gross. Here is the radar from this afternoon, showing that the weekend isn’t really much worse than it is today.

A smattering of showers and good forecasts

The forecast in Blacksburg was a tale of two seasons. First, there was the threat for frost on Monday morning, though it was not realized and temperatures only dipped to 38. Tuesday brought a slow moving warm front with rain falling through the day, though only a quarter inch fell in town. And the warm front had to wait to bring it’s raised temperatures, as the clouds brought cooler highs than they saw on Monday. The warmer Monday lows, an the dreary Tuesday were good news for a handful of outlets. Victoria-Weather was steady across the board, Accuweather slipped on the Tuesday high, while Forecast.io stumbled with Tuesday’s low. All three drew level atop the leaderboard for the day.
Actuals: Monday – High 62, Low 38
Tuesday – .25 inches of rain, High 56, Low 39

Grade: B-C

Brownsville, Texas

Today we venture to one of the furthest south cities in the USA, Brownsville, TX! Sitting right at the USA/Mexico border, this city often sees scorching summer heat. Will these next couple of days see that or will the Gulf cool them off a tad?

At 1253am CDT, the temperature at Brownsville, TX was 80 degrees under overcast skies. High pressure is sitting firmly over the FL Peninsula, extending its’ reach throughout the Gulf of Mexico. A low pressure system attempting to become more organised over the Southern High Plains is kicking off plenty of thunderstorms from western KS to western TX tonight, but are making very little eastern progress. Pieces of energy will continue to eject from this system over the next couple of days, but will ride up and over the high pressure system through the Mid-MS River Valley into the OH Valley, pretty much bypassing eastern and far southern TX. Some very isolated shower activity may spring up during the day, but that activity should remain further inland. Gusty southerly winds are anticipated over the next couple of days, but outside of mostly cloudy skies heading into the weekend, that will be about as bad it gets.

Wednesday: Thinning clouds in afternoon, otherwise mostly cloudy. High 88, Low 76.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy, a hint warmer High 90, Low 75.

TWC: Wednesday: Partly cloudy and windy. High 89, Low 74.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 91, Low 76.

AW: Wednesday: Partly sunny, breezy, humid. High 89, Low 76.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, humid. High 91, Low 76.

NWS: Wednesday: Decreasing clouds and breezy. High 87, Low 75.
Thursday: Decreasing clouds. High 90, Low 76.

WB: Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 87, Low 76.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 88, Low 77.

WN: Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 88, Low 75.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 90, Low 75.

FIO: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 89, Low 76.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy until afternoon. High 92, Low 76.

Here we see just some high clouds over southern TX, meanwhile far western TX/eastern NM continues to see some bright cloudtops, indicative of thunderstorms continuing to affect the area.

Fargo, North Dakota

Let’s keep up our good run of posting with a look to the Dakotas for a forecast.

At 953PM, CT, Fargo was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees with clear skies.  A weak disturbance at the northern periphery of a stronger low in the Front Range was producing light rain over south central North Dakota, but it will carry well south of Fargo, which will enjoy clear skies overnight, with a few passing high clouds.
The trough responsible for the rain and storms in the southern Plains will shift to the east, leaving an upper level pattern vacuum. This will be filled by surface high pressure in the Dakotas, which will be supplemented by a developing ridge that won’t move into the area until late on Thursday.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 66, Low 48
Thursday – Sunny, High 67, Low 41

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 66, Low 48
Thursday – A mainly sunny sky. High 58, Low 40

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sun High 68, Low 48
Thursday – Periods of clouds and sunshine High 67, Low 39

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 68, Low 49
Thursday – Sunny, High 69, Low 41

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the morning then clearing. High 67, Low 49
Thursday – Sunny, High 67, Low 40

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 68, Low 48
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 41

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy until afternoon. High 72, Low 50
Thursday – Clear throughout the day. High 70, Low 42

Here is a look at the satellite, showing some high clouds in North Dakota. Radar shows a lot more rain than is actually falling in North Dakota, which is why you get this and not the radar.  It’s misleading!

Bremerton, Washington

Our forecast this evening takes us west of Seattle across the Puget Sound to Bremerton.

At 856, PM, PT, Bremerton was reporting a temperature of 56 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The bulk of Western Washington was experiencing a little bit of cloudiness simply because it say in a valley, and wind was flowing off the Sound. Aloft, high pressure was parked over the region.
There is an area of low pressure churning in the Gulf of Alaska west of Vancouver Island. The upper level support for the feature will be slow to pivot to the southeast, and as a result, the surface system will be left mostly stationary until late Wednesday. The threat for rain will increase on the Olympic Peninsula, but the high terrain of the Peninsula will slow rain until early Thursday morning.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy early and late, with some sun through the middle of the day. High 68 Low 40
Wednesday – Increasing clouds late, High 70, Low 42

TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds High 68, Low 44
Wednesday – Mostly sunny skies High 72, Low 47

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 69, Low 42
Wednesday – Periods of clouds and sun High 72, Low 46

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 66, Low 47
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 49

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 67, Low 45
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 47

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 66, Low 46
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 70, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the morning. High 71, Low 45
Wednesday -Partly cloudy until night. High 76, Low 51

That isn’t what you think of when you think of Washington. Here is a look at the satellite, which doesn’t have much going on, until you get off shore.

A desert freeze

Not all deserts are hot. That’s one thing that you learn early on in meteorology school. A desert is simply an area that doesn’t get a lot of precipitation. Antarctica is a desert. Northern Arizona is at a much higher elevation than the sweltering heat of Phoenix, but they too are in a desert. Flagstaff, for example, saw no rain on the 3rd and 4th of this month, and in fact, temperatures dipped below freezing on the morning of the 2nd (last Tuesday). Still a desert! Accuweather stepped up and had the top forecast for Flagstaff.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 72, Low 30
Wednesday – High 72, Low 35

Grade: B-D

Blacksburg, Virginia

Hey, let’s take a trip on the forecasting express to the home of Virginia Tech University.

At 315PM, ET, Blacksburg was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with clear skies. Winds were blustery from the west, hitting gusts of 20kt. In the wake of an area of low pressure now over the Canadian Maritimes, a cool batch of high pressure within an upper level trough has settled in. There were still a few remnant clouds over the coastal areas of Virginia, but the mountains were clear.
At the base of the upper level trough, there will still be a bit of baroclinicity as it pivots through the beginning of the work week. A trailing surface trough over the Plains will redirect some southerly flow at this boundary, touching off some shower and storms will crop up from near Greensboro northwest to Indianapolis, and won’t move a whole lot through the day on Tuesday. This means there is a threat for showers and storms most of the day in Blacksburg after tomorrow should mostly be enjoyable.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 61, Low 36
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with periods of rain and thunderstorms, High 58, Low 41

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 60, Low 39
Tuesday – Rain, High 60, Low 41

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and cool High 61, Low 39
Tuesday – Partial sunshine with a passing shower in the afternoon High 60 Low 40

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 58, Low 36
Tuesday – A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy High 58, Low 41

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 59, Low 40
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. High 61, Low 42

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny with areas of frost, High 59, Low 34
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 59, Low 41

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy until morning. High 60, Low 37
Tuesday – Rain starting overnight. Hgh 57, Low 36

There is going to be a bit of a chill in the air tonight, but the rain will be at the leading edge of some warm air. Right now, we just have some fair weather cumulus in the coastal plains.

Right in our Wheel-ing house

Mere hours after we announced that Victoria-Weather was the forecaster of the month, we also get to do a verification for Wheeling, which we forecast for last weekend as a heat wave gripped the Upper Ohio Valley. The warm up seemed due to end, however, as a cold front rolled through town, bringing showers and storms on Sunday and Monday, dropping a considerable amount of rain, and steadily dragging temperatures down on Monday. Fortunately for Wheeling, they were far enough south that they didn’t have to worry about snow, like they saw in the Northern Plains as a result of this system. Fortunately for Victoria-Weather and Forecast.io, the weather behaved enough that we compromised on a victory (F.io was warmer on highs and V-W was cooler on lows, which both ended up being right.)
Actuals: Sunday – .17 inches of rain, High 86, Low 57
Monday – .54 inches of rain, High 80, Low 54

Grade: C-D

Spring really wants to come to Burlington

i’ve been caught up in other things recently, so this forecast for Burlington came nearly two weeks ago. Oops. The weather was on the upswing in Vermont at the time of the forecast, with an area of low pressure moving along the coast at the leading edge of a broader area of warm high pressure. Temperatures actually exceeded expectation on both Wednesday (the 26th!) and Thursday, hitting the 70s on Wednesday and nearly hitting 80 on Thursday. The National Weather Service claimed the top forecast for the day.
Actuals: Wednesday – .16 inches of rain High 73, Low 50
Thursday – High 79, Low 52

Grade: C-D

Grand Junction, Colorado

At 835am MDT, the temperature at Grand Junction, CO was 55 degrees under fair skies. High pressure found over the Western US is going to keep the Four Corners area dry today and throughout Friday. Saturday will see the storm system currently off the West Coast push inland and into the Rockies. Increasing clouds expected throughout the day on Saturday, with some scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm shifting into the area late Saturday evening into Sunday.

Friday: Sunny and warm. High 84, Low 51.
Saturday: Increasing afternoon clouds, an isolated thunderstorm possible in late evening hours. High 83, Low 54.

TWC: Friday: Sunny. High 86, Low 51.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, and isolated thunderstorm possible. High 83, Low 55.

AW: Friday: Mostly sunny and very warm. High 85, Low 49.
Saturday: A thunderstorm around. High 83, Low 53.

NWS: Friday: Sunny. High 86, Low 50.
Saturday: Partly sunny, isolated thunderstorm in late evening. High 84, Low 55.

WB: Friday: Sunny. High 84, Low 48.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 82, Low 51.

WN: Friday: Mostly sunny. High 86, Low 52.
Saturday: Partly cloudy with isolated storms. High 84, Low 55.

FIO: Friday: Clear throughout the day. High 86, Low 50.
Saturday: Light rain overnight. High 82, Low 55.

Here we see the Western US is very quiet, with a storm system well off the West Coast. This will eventually give us a bit of showery weather later on in the weekend.