Category Archives: Forecast

Merced, California

Let’s get out to California. There was a tornado warning just northwest of Merced today. Anything else to be concerned about on the horizon?

At 953PM, CT, Merced was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The tornado threat of this afternoon is long past, though there were a few showers well to the north towards Chico, while Merced and the area around was much clearer. A cold front swept through the area earlier, and there was some wind damage reported in the central Valley as it passed by. Through the day tomorrow, a sharp upper level trough will remain in place over the west coast, and an onshore flow will allow the threat for showers, particularly along the western exposures of the Coastal Range and Sierra Nevadas to persist.
A shortwaved ridge will move into the area by Thursday morning as the region will clear out. There will be a bit of a clearing on Thursday, allowing for a warm up and sunshine. The break will be short lived, as the next threat for rain will arrive by Friday.  Surface low pressure will linger off the coast of British Columbia, only to be reinforced by a newly arrived upper level wave on Friday. This persistent surface feature may lead to Merced being a bit murkier, even on Thursday, when t will otherwise be clearer.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, with a chance for light rain, High 62, Low 50
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 63, Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers in the morning with scattered thunderstorms arriving in the afternoon. High 62, Low 47
Thursday – Partly cloudy. High 66, Low 43

AW: Tomorrow – Site is down for maintenance 🙁

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. Mostly cloudy, High 65, Low 48
Thursday – Mostly sunny High 67, Low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 60, Low 48
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 64, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light showers likely. High 64, Low 48
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 66, Low 43

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain starting in the afternoon. High 64, Low 48
Thursday – Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. high 71, Low 41

I tried to wait out Accuweather, but I need to go to bed. No forecast from them tonight. here is the radar in northern California, which will pick back up again tomorrow .

Weather Wayback… A happier time

The second weekend of the year in eastern Washington may have seemed like a rough weekend, as temperatures were not anticipated to climb out of the lower 20s. In fact, those temperatures couldn’t even clear the mid teens in Yakima, where we issued a forecast on January 14th. Unanticipated was an overcast that brought some light snow all the way down to the Yakima Valley both Saturday the 14th and Sunday the 15th. The forecasts were calamitous, all across the board, with The Weather Channel narrowly winning the day on a particularly awful forecast. Now, this past week, however, the warm weather has led to rapid snowmelt, accompanied with heavy rain earlier this week has led to some significant flooding in the city of Yakima. Fortunately waters are receding quickly, and after this post, we won’t have to worry about the other disaster – the forecast from January 14th.
Actuals: Saturday, January 15th, snow reported and not measured, High 15, Low 1
Sunday, January 16th – Snow reported and not measured, High 16, Low 12

Grade F


Just before midnight on Sunday night in Longview, Texas, there was a report of light rain. It was at the regular observing time from an automatic station. Skies were clear. Skies were clear everywhere around Longview. I looked at the radar. Nothing. All signs point to this being an erroneous observation by a robot hopped up on too much late night petroleum (or whatever robots drink). The problem is that a couple of outlets DID forecast rain, and you can’t always just dismiss these random reports. The only fair thing, in my mind, was to let it go, and not worry about precipitation for this particular forecast, and let it boil down to temperature analysis. In that regard, Accuweather (who DID have rain in the forecast) earned the top spot, while Victoria-Weather (who did NOT) followed in close pursuit.
Actuals – Sunday – Precipitation – ???, High 85, Low 57
Monday – High 87, Low 63

Grade: C

Longview, Texas

It’s been quite a while since we stopped by Texas for a forecast. Let’s do it!

At 153PM, CT, Longview was reporting a temperature of 72 degrees with overcast skies. There was a big swath of overcast across the Big Piney Woods, thanks largely to dew points that lingered in the low to mid 60s. Visible satellite showed that this thicket of clouds was at the tail end of a cold front extending from the coastal Carolinas, and the vector analysis in the region suggested a weak area of low pressure east of Dallas.
High pressure is moving into the region, however, both at the surface and aloft, which will prevent any further convective development. Moisture off the Gulf will be pulled towards eastward, towards Louisiana, as most synoptic activity will be in eastern Canada or off the Eastern Seaboard. Expect temperatures to be much warmer than average.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 83, Low 62
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 84, Low 61

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 82, Low 61
Monday – Partly cloudy skies. High 83, Low 60

AW: Tomorrow – Periods of clouds and sunshine with a shower in spots High 84, Low 62
Monday – Partly sunny and very warm High 84, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 83, Low 62
Monday – Sunny High 85, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. High 80, Low 62
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 62

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 82, Low 63
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 59

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy until afternoon. High 84, Low 62
Monday – Clear throughout the day. High 82, Low 61

Boy, that’s a comfortable forecast, exactly the kind of weather I want in my life. It’s stuck in Texas for now, though. Here is a look at the satellite, with clouds settling in right on top of Longview.

A good day all around in Wichita

The weather of the past two days in Wichita was magnificent, with temperatures climbing up into the upper 70s, warmer even than the most optimistic forecasting outlets. Significantly warmer, actually. Additionally, the Wichita State Shockers, a 10 seed, ended up defeating the Dayton Flyers in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Not bad at all. On top of that, everyone could go outside for their St. Patrick’s Day parade! The Weather Channel enjoyed the top forecast of the day.
Actuals: Thursday – High 76, Low 38
Friday – High 78, Low 50

Grade: B-D

Wichita, Kansas

It’s NCAA tournament time, which means all of our forecasts will make us think about the basketball teams in the area for a while. Well, Wichita is home to Wichita State (duh), a 10 seed and one of the popular sleepers in this year’s tournament. Will the weather be kind while residents are watching their local team?

At 753PM, CT, Wichita was reporting a temperature of 46 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A ridge was advancing eastward from the Front Range, and promised a significant warm up across the region. A light southerly wind was only going to get stronger as tomorrow projects as a much warmer day.
There is a broad, weak trough embedded within the apex of the larger scale ridge, and this feature will generate a weak surface feature in the Canadian Prairies. Return flow into the wave will induce some extra cloudiness tomorrow evening. The upper level trough will strengthen and reinforce the trough that presently exists east of the Mississippi. As the trough develops aloft, the feature at the surface will also  deepen, with a cold front developing through the Ozarks. Fortunately, it will be late enough in the day and without any real upper level support, so the cool down in Wichita will be minimal, despite being behind the front, and the threat for precipitation is low enough that I will be leaving it out of the forecast.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 67, Low 40
Friday – Overcast, with a cool down late.69, Low 49

TWC: Tomorrow – Wind increasing. A few clouds from time to time. High 73, Low 38
Friday – Partly cloudy. High 72, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy and warmer with some sunshine giving way to clouds High 72, Low 40
Friday – Mostly cloudy High 72, Low 50

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 73, Low 40
Friday – Partly sunny, High 70, Low 51

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, warmer. High 71, Low 39
Friday – Mostly sunny, HIgh 69, Low 50

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 73, Low 39
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 70, Low 52

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy until evening.High 72, Low 37
Friday – Partly cloudy until evening.High 68, Low 48.

Here is a surface analysis I drew for the region earlier. High pressure out east, with a weak perturbation in the Rockies. Warm air is moving into the region.

Winning weather

I think the weather this past weekend in Fresno could be labelled as perfect by most opinion havers. The only issue is that there was no rain in an area that is still in drought. Of course, there has been SOME rain this winter, and who wants to make up their rain deficits in one continuous shot? The sunny Fresno weather led to some very good forecasts across the board, with Accuweater able to claim a victory slightly better than the competition.
Actuals: Saturday – High 75, Low 49
Sunday – High 76, Low 51

Grade: A-C

Terre Haute, Indiana

All the talk today is going to be on the Northeast and New England states, as a powerful winter storm takes aim. Will it be the snowiest Pi Day in history for them? Probably. But alas, we’re focused on Indiana today! Let’s see how the Midwest is faring.

At 1153pm EDT, the temperature at Terre Haute, IN was 30 degrees under overcast skies. Snowfall from earlier today has pushed off to the east mostly, getting ready to cripple the Northeast. There could be a couple lingering snow showers in the area early this morning, but conditions will settle down throughout the day as high pressure begins to build in over the Midwest. Wednesday looks to clear out as high pressure settles overhead, with sunny skies and temperatures a lil bit warmer perhaps. Wednesday morning will be chilly with the clear skies, but a lot nicer than the last couple days have been!

Tuesday: Isolated snow shower possible, otherwise cloudy. High 31, Low 22.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 35, Low 18.

TWC: Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, slight chance of snow shower. High 33, Low 23.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 35, Low 17.

AW: Tuesday: Cloudy with a snow shower; breezy. High 33, Low 24.
Wednesday: Partly sunny and cold. High 35, Low 17.

NWS: Tuesday: Chance of snow showers. High 34, Low 24.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 35, Low 17.

WB: Tuesday: Chance of snow showers. High 32, Low 19
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 33, Low 18.

WN: Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with chance of light snow showers. High 34, Low 21.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 36, Low 18.

FIO: Tuesday: Mostly cloudy until evening. High 35, Low 21.
Wednesday: Clear throughout the day. High 38, Low 20.

Some higher clouds associated with tomorrow’s Northeast blizzard are shifting out of the Ohio Valley, while additional clouds stream in from the west. A deck of low clouds is found over IL/IN this evening, but is expected to clear out for Wednesday.

Chilly End To Weekend

The forecast for Dothan, AL panned out as expected, precip-wise anyways. Saturday was pleasantly sunny, perhaps just a couple degrees cooler than expected. Sunday morning, the light rain showers moved on in, but overcast skies behind it kept temperatures WAY below what was expected. Like 10 degrees lower. Oops. Oh well, people probably weren’t going out much Sunday anyways. VW, TWC, and AW all tied for the win, albeit not with a score we’re particularly proud of.

Saturday: High 69, Low 45.
Sunday: 0.17″ of rain. High 54, Low 46.
Forecast Grade: D

A little bit of noise

I noted in the forecast discussion for Florence that went off course compared to the rest of our outlets. There was little indication that a system developing over the Tennessee Valley would hold together as it moved across the southern Appalachians, but saw it coming. There was a predawn rumble of thunder followed by a brisk north wind on Friday. This brought level with Victoria-Weather, as we had our own insight that eluded the others. It was much cooler than most other expected on Thursday morning, allowing for the tie.
Actuals: Thursday – High 77, Low 37
Friday – .08 inches of rain, High 77, Low 47

Grade: C-D