Category Archives: Forecast

Burlington, Vermont

Well, tonight’s Big Game is over, and for the residents of Burlington, VT, I’m sure a few of them were pleased with the outcome, considering their proximity to Boston. What will the weather hold for celebrations over the next couple of days?

At 1054pm EST, the temperature at Burlington, VT was 41 degrees under light rain. A weak area of low pressure is shifting through Quebec currently, with a trough swinging through the region. Some light overnight rain showers are anticipated, but will clear up by morning. While the day will be somewhat pleasant, another boundary looks to move through the region early Tuesday morning. This more potent system will bring a better chance of morning rain showers before clearing out by midday. Colder temps are expected to spill in behind it throughout the evening Tuesday, making for a much colder evening than it will be on Monday. But at least it’ll be dry then, right?

Monday: Isolated early AM shower, then cloudy. High 48, Low 39.
Tuesday: Possible early morning showers, then cloudy but cooler. High 44, Low 17.

TWC: Monday: Morning showers. High 42, Low 37.
Tuesday: Isolated showers possible. High 44, Low 21.

AW: Monday: Morning mist; mostly cloudy. High 48, Low 41.
Tuesday: Fog, a morning downpour possible. High 45, Low 20.

NWS: Monday: Chance of early morning showers, then cloudy. High 43, Low 38.
Tuesday: Chance of morning rain, then breezy. High 42, Low 17.

WB: Monday: Chance of morning rain, then cloudy. High 44, Low 37.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy after morning rain. High 42, Low 20.

WN: Monday: Mostly cloudy, possible late night shower. High 44, Low 37.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with early morning showers. High 42, Low 20.

FIO: Monday: Foggy starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. High 44, Low 37
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 47, Low 21.

We see a few light rain showers shifting through the region, but certainly not a washout.

Lancaster, Pennsylvania

Once again, the Victoria-Weather forecast prescience, getting out of California and headed east, just as the weather in California takes a turn fo the worst.

At 1053PM, ET, Lancaster was reporting haze with clear skies and a temperature of 22 degrees. Clear skies were being seen throughout eastern Pennsylvania, with overcast skies and markedly warmer temperatures through and west of the Appalachians.
A warm front stretches from the Upper Midwest through the Great Lakes, which is producing extra snow in western New York. There is cold air dammed up against the Appalachians, meaning that Lancaster continues to see chilly air tonight. The chill will erode eventually, but it won’t get as warm in Lancaster as points to the east even as high pressure holds a steady grip on the region.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 44, Low 19
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 50, Low 28

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 44, Low 21
Monday – Mostly sunny skies. High 49, Low 30

AW: Tomorrow – Areas of freezing fog this morning; partly sunny High 46, Low 24
Monday – Areas of morning fog; otherwise, partly sunny; mild High 51, Low 30

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny,  High 6, Low 20
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 47, Low 30

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Partly sunny, not as cool. High 43, Low 23
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 48, Low 31

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 46, Low 22
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 47, Low 30

FIO: Tomorrow – Foggy in the afternoon. High 41, Low 22
Monday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 47, low 31

Nearly everyone believes in the power of the warm air, to some degree. Here is a look at the satellite, showing the thick clouds bringing snow over western New York.


Tipping the scales

Bakersfield is a fairly dry town at the southern end of the Central California Valley, but the winter is the rainy season. January was going to be close to the monthly average for precipitation, but shy by about a tenth of an inch. Well, they got it and more on the 31st, collecting .41 inches of fresh rain, putting them over the average and further helping bust a long standing drought in the area. There was a trace that spilled into the 1st of February as well, That extra rain was beneficial to Bakersfield’s agricultural interests, but also to the National Weather Servicee who paired their precip forecasts with a quality temperature outlook and earned the victory in Bakersfield.
Actuals: Thursday – .41 inches of rain High 61, Low 49
Friday – rain reported, but not measured, High 64, Low 45

Grade: A-C

Trouble barrels in

There was a little bowling ball of low pressure in the North Pacific late last week that was prepared to barrel into the San Francisco Bay area. We knew from the beginning that it could go sideways on us a bit and throw off ourr forecast in Napa. Only one outlet, Weatherbug, suspected it would get weird the way it did: by arriving a full day early. Rain was reported on both Tuesday and Wednesday, which was a surprise to the other outlets. Weatherbug would have won with their temperatures, but secured it thanks to having the only correct precipitation forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday – rain reported but not measured, High 61, Low 45
Wednesday – rain reported but not measured High 64, Low 51

Grade: B-D

Weather Wayback… Winning the Big Game

Almost a year ago, Anthony put together a forecast for Port St. Lucie, Florida on the night of the Super Bowl. Not only was the game a down to the wire, tightly contested struggle, the forecast as a nip and tuck battle as well. There had been rain during the game in south Florida, but it was out of the picture by Monday morning, which allowed Victoria-Weather to claim a win, just like the Eagles.
Actuals: February 5th, High 73, Low 53
February 6th, High 77, Low 64

Grade: C-D

Bakersfield, California

Southern California is our destination this morning, which sounds pretty nice. I don’t know if you heard, but it’s awful cold in the Midwest today, so this forecast comes from a place of jealousy.

At 854AM, PT, Bakersfield was reporting a temperature of 53 degrees with clear skies and haze. Moisture is lingering in the Central Valley after a batch of rain moved through yesterday, but clear skies will linger for the day today.
Another weak batch of low pressure is barreling into the Bay Area tonight, with the expectation that it arrives in Bakersfield as a significantly weaker entity later in the day. There may be a little bit of rain that makes it all the way to Bakersfield, but it is more likely that the only result is another extremely hazy morning on Friday.
Tomorrow – slight chance for rain, otherwise mostly cloudy. High 61, Low 51
Friday, Mostly sunny, High 66, Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain ending early. Breaks of sun in the afternoon High 60, Low 54
Friday – Overcast. High 67, Low 46

AW: Tomorrow – Rain tapering off; cooler High 61, Low 3
Friday – Rather cloudy High 65, Low 46

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny,  High 59, Low 50
Friday – Showers likely, mainly after 4pm. Partly sunny, High 64, Low 45

WB: Tomorrow – Showers likely. Chance of showers 70 percent, High 61, Low 52
Friday – Areas of dense clouds in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning, then showers

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers likely, High 59, Low 51
Friday – Mostly cloudy with light showers likely, High 64, Low 45

FIO: tomorrow- Rain starting in the morning, continuing until afternoon. High 65, Low 52
Friday – Mostly cloudy starting in the morning. High 67, Low 46

It’s pretty dreary by the standard of Bakersfield, but it sounds pretty nice to these Minnesotan ears. Here is a look at the satellite for central California.

Napa, California

A bitter, brutal cold is about to seize the nation. Well, it will seize the part that is east of the Rockies. What about California? It has to be warmer there, right?

At 854AM, PT, Napa was reporting a temperature of 49 degrees with clear skies. The West Coast was under the influence of a strong, high amplitude ridge which is pinning some fog in the Central Valley, and keeping the Bay Area free of any significant entanglements, with only a smattering of mid-level clouds blotting the horizon.
Underneath the high amplitude ridge, a weak perturbation will evolve over the Gulf of Alaska. It is small enough in stature and its origin in the open ocean lend a lot of model insecurity with the progress of this feature. Right now, it appears that there is some consensus that the wave will head directly for the Bay, arriving late on Wednesday, and that alone will force us to leave precipitation in the forecast, however there is a high degree of uncertainty. 
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 63, Low 45
Wednesday – Chance of showers late, with partly cloudy skies otherwise, High 60, Low 43

TWC: Tomorrow Cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon, high 66, Low 47
Wednesday – Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon. High 63, Low 46

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds breaking for some sun, High 64, low 47
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, a touch of rain High 58, Low 45

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 65, Low 48
Wednesday – A 30 percent chance of showers after 11am. Mostly cloudy, High 60, Low 46

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning, High 65,Low 45
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, a chance of showers, High 64, low 46

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 65, Low 48
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 60, Low 45

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 64, Low 51
Wednesday – Rain starting in the evening. High 59, Low 47

This will be an interesting verification, given all the directions we could go. Here is the satellite, with heavy clouds over the Valley, and more sporadic, almost orographic clouds closer to the Bay.

Weather Wayback… more tolerable winter

As we sit waiting for a terrible outbreak of cold to get only colder, we will reminisce to nearly a year ago, back to a forecast for Toledo, Ohio, which straddled the transition from January to February. It had been in the low 40s at the time, and would start to get colder with a wave moving through the region. A warm front would sustain the 40s for a day, with a cold front then bringing much chillier temperatures for February. Toledo ducked any precipitation, but they were unable to avoid the cold air. It was 10 degrees by the time the 1st became the 2nd. Heck, that’s 20 degrees warmer than it is at Victoria-Weather Headquarters right now. Back in 2018, The Weather Channel, the only dry forecast, ended up with the top forecast.
Actuals: January 31st, High 43, Low 23
February 1st, High 38, Low 10

Grade: B-C

No need for drama

Waco was potentially in line for the first wave of severe weather of the year late last week. The storm that moved through the country did produce some severe storms, though they popped up further to the east, in Mississippi and Louisiana, and did so over the weekend, instead of our Thursday/Friday forecast period. Accuweather was the most doom and gloom for their forecast, and perhaps feels a bit silly, but their temperature forecast kept them and most outlets in the race. Actually, those temperatures were a bit of a surprise as well, as clearing skies which arrived earlier than anticipated allowed temperatures to drop off to the low 40s, which was a full 10 degrees cooler than some outlets. It was Victoria-Weather that edged the crowd, though, and earned the victory for the day.
Actuals: Thursday, High 63, Low 41
Friday – High 67, Low 40

Grade: D.

Snow stymies warm up

There have been a couple of stronger features that cycled through the center of the country in this past week, including one last weekend, and another just yesterday. Our forecast in Lawrence covered Monday and Tuesday, which fell between the two systems. Easy forecast, right? If only. Snow on the ground meant temperatures weren’t able to warm as much, and the snow that was able to melt reappeared as fog or haze. As a result, high temperatures were much cooler than expected and nobody really ended up with a very good showing. Forecast.io, however, was cooler than the rest, and claimed victory, becoming the first outlet to win twice this year.
Actuals: Monday, High 32, Low 27
Tuesday, High 35, Low 32

Grade: C-D