Category Archives: Forecast

Lawton, Oklahoma

Hello, and good evening. We’re going to take a late night look at southwestern Oklahoma, if for no other reason than to take my mind off of the subzero temperatures here in Victoria-Weather’s home land.

At 1253PM, CT, Lawton was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 35 degrees. Fog has built in towards Dallas, helping temperatures linger in the 40s, but the clear skies for Lawton mean there is some room for things to get a bit chillier overnight.
An upper level trough in the Upper Midwest is driving a cold dome of surface high pressure to the south, and will continue to do so through the day tomorrow, but it’s inflection point will be to the east of Lawton, meaning the coldest air won’t move into to town, and a rebound to some slightly warmer temperatures will be easily attained on Monday.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 48, Low 32
Monday – Sunny, High 56, Low 24

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny and windy High 47, Low 34
Monday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 54, Low 24

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun High 55, Low 35
Monday – Cooler with times of clouds and sun High 54, Low 24

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 52, Low 37
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 51, Low 36

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 51, Low 35
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 54, Low 25

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 52, Low 37
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 51, Low 26

FIO: Tomorrow – Breezy starting in the morning, continuing until evening. High 47, Low 27
Monday – Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon and breezy in the afternoon. High 49, Low 17

I didn’t expect this much disparity in the forecast today. I’m leaning hard on the GFS, but the NAM is completely off alignment with the GFS temperatures. We’ll see what wins out. Satellite shows that the low clouds don’t have high enough tops to register on the IR satellite tonight.

Bangor, Maine

Tonight we take a trip to the far northeastern corner of the US, the great state of Maine! Let’s see how this weekend will shape up in preparation for The Big Game!

At 953pm EST, the temperature at Bangor, ME was 31 degrees under overcast skies. A strong cold front is pushing through New England tonight, bringing plenty of snow to the area. A couple inches of accumulation is expected by the early afternoon hours when activity wanes as the system pushes out to sea. Much colder air will spill into the region as arctic high pressure builds over the Eastern Seaboard heading into the weekend. Temperatures will plummet Friday night before only rebounding into the teens for Saturday. Luckily, plenty of (cold) sunshine will help things seem fairly nice. Brrrrr.

Friday: Morning snow, clearing out in evening. High 32, Low 2
Saturday: Partly cloudy, much colder. High 16, Low -3.

TWC: Friday: Morning snow. High 29, Low 4.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 15, Low -3.

AW: Friday: Morning snow, clouds breaking. High 29, Low 4.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 16, Low -1.

NWS: Friday: Snow. High 34, Low 4.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 14, Low -1.

WB: Friday: Snow. High 30, Low 4.
Saturday: Partly sunny. High 15, Low -1.

WN: Friday: Partly cloudy with light snow. High 30, Low 5.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 14, Low -1.

FIO: Friday: Snow (2-4″) starting in morning, continuing until afternoon. High 37, Low 4.
Saturday: Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon. high 17, Low 4.

Here we see some light precip starting to slide along the Maine coastline, even though much of what we see isn’t hitting the ground yet.

Toledo, Ohio

Today we visit the historic city of Toledo. Fun Fact: Toledo was originally part of Michigan before it was given to Ohio in a compromise where they got 3/4 of the land that became the Upper Peninsula. Woo facts!

At 1153pm EST, the temperature at Toledo, OH was 23 degrees with a few clouds. High pressure is shifting out of the region as a strong area of occluded low pressure pushes over central Ontario. A warm front is lifting through Lower Michigan and while the radar might look like snow is on the way for Wednesday morning, none of it has been reaching the ground. Temperatures look to push into the 40s for Wednesday as southwesterly flow ahead of an impending cold front warms the area. Cold front finally moves through on Thursday, possible kicking up a mix of rain/snow showers across the area, but should be light in nature if they do develop. Temperatures will drop quickly Thursday evening behind the front as the flow switches to northwesterly. The weekend will be much cooler than the next 36 hours, so enjoy the relative warmth while you can!

Wednesday: Cloudy. High 41, Low 22.
Thursday: Continued cloudy, spotty rain/snow showers possible in afternoon. High 35, Low 12.

TWC: Wednesday: Cloudy, windy. High 44, Low 22.
Thursday: Cloudy. High 37, Low 13.

AW: Wednesday: An afternoon rain or snow shower. High 43, Low 24.
Thursday: Cloudy. High 39, Low 15.

NWS: Wednesday: Breezy, cloudy then slight chance of rain then rain/snow late evening. High 41, Low 22.
Thursday: Chance of rain/snow. High 38, Low 17.

WB: Wednesday: Chance of rain in afternoon, changing to snow late. High 42, Low 22.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High 37, Low 15.

WN: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 41, Low 25.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with slight chance of light wintery mix. High 38, Low 16.

FIO: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy throughout the day and breezy starting in morning, continuing until afternoon. Light showers later. High 43, Low 23.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy throughout the day, some showers early. High 36, Low 15.

A system is shifting through the Great Lakes, though it looks worse on radar than will be really happening at the surface.

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES-16 ABI BAND 07 OR_ABI-L1b-RadC-M3C07_G16_s20180310017253_e20180310020038_c20180310020073.nc

Spokane sees some snow

I always find the forecasts where we call for snow to be the most interesting, without a doubt. Seeing just how much snow a location received from a system is the most tangible verification there is. Spokane offered up some of the white stuff, and I can say, unquestionably, that meteorologists oversold it. Over the forecast period, Friday and Saturday, the airport only saw about half an inch of accumulation, less than the 2-4″ people thought they might get. Part of the reason was that the sludge moved northeast at a more rapid clip, which, in addition, permitted temperatures to jump much warmer than most had envisioned. The exception was Forecast.io, who correctly guessed a high in the mid 40s on Saturday. They won the day, edging out the usually cool sided Weatherbug.
Actuals: Friday .2″ of snow, High 37, Low 30
Saturday – .3″ of snow, High 45, Low 33

Grade: B-C

Spokane, Washington

Tomorrow – Mostly snow in a wintry mix, High 37, Low 30
Saturday – Accumulating snow likely, 2-4″ High 37, Low 29

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 38, Low 31
Saturday Cloudy with rain and snow early changing to all rain and becoming intermittent late. High 39, Low 30

AW: Tomorrow – Mainly cloudy with a couple of snow showers High 39, Low 31
Saturday – Periods of snow mixing with rain, accumulating 1-3 inches; storm total snowfall 2-4 inches High 40, Low 31

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of snow before 2pm, then a chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy High 38, Low 31
Saturday – Snow before noon, then rain and snow likely between noon and 1pm, then rain likely after 1pm High 39, Low 29

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow in the morning, then scattered snow showers in the afternoon.  High 38, Low 31
Saturday – Snow in the morning, then rain or snow in the afternoon. Light snow accumulations. Snow level 2500ft. High 42, Low 31

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with chance of light wintry mix, High 38, Low 41
Saturday – Cloudy with wintry mix, High 38, Low 29

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day (late mix). High 38, Low 32
Saturday – Snow (1–3 in.) until morning.High 44, Low 35

Winter doesn’t last long in South Carolina

The forecast for Columbia relied in some small part on the fact that a major winter snow had just come through the area, and parts of North Carolina were still digging out. It’s a little unbelievable that temperatures were nearly 70 for both days of our forecast period, even after the cold front went through on Tuesday. The temperatures didn’t cool off very much, either, bottoming out at 49 degrees, which kept those outlets without 48 hours of hourly forecast data in the race. Neither of them were victorious, however, with Accuweather claiming victory. No forecast was very good, and the culprit was most often the too warm temperatures on Tuesday.
Actuals: Monday – High 69, Low 38
Tuesday – .02 inches of rain, High 70, Low 49

Grade: C-D

San Luis Obispo, California

As we dig out of our biggest snowstorm here at VW HQ in 6 years, we head towards the West Coast to see how their midweek weather is faring. I’m guessing a lot better than shoveling a foot of snow.

At 920pm PST, the temperature at San Luis Obispo, CA was 46 degrees under fair skies. Generally quiet weather is found throughout the Southwest currently. However, a large low pressure system centered in the Gulf of Alaska is swinging a cold front into the Pacific Northwest, bringing copious amounts of rain and higher elevation snows to the region. This strong cold front looks to push southward throughout the day on Wednesday, bringing rain to Northern CA and progresses through the Central Valley. Some rain showers look to push into the SLO area, with a couple of showers making it into the area shortly before midnight. This activity lasts into Thursday morning, with the last of the precip departing the area by the mid-morning hours. Skies should clear out some through Thursday afternoon.

Wednesday: Clouds increase throughout the day, isolated showers late. High 62, Low 42.
Thursday: Scattered showers in morning, clouds decrease through afternoon. High 61, Low 43.

TWC: Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 65, Low 42.
Thursday: Partly cloudy, isolated morning showers. High 59, Low 46.

AW: Wednesday: Becoming cloudy, with occasional rain and drizzle late. High 65, Low 40.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy, a shower, cool. High 60, Low 44.

NWS: Wednesday: Mostly sunny through afternoon, chance of showers by evening. High 64, Low 43.
Thursday: Slight chance of morning showers, then clearing. High 60, Low 46.

WB: Wednesday: Partly cloudy, rain showers in evening. High 63, Low 44.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 59, Low 48.

WN: Wednesday: Partly cloudy with light showers likely. High 64, Low 43.
Thursday: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. High 60, Low 46.

FIO: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy starting in the afternoon, isolated showers late. High 63, Low 43.
Thursday: Rain showers in morning. High 59, Low 46.

While the condition are pretty pleasant right now, we can see the system that will move in over the next 24 hours is currently drenching the Pacific Northwest.

Back to normal ahead of schedule

One thing that seemed certain when the forecast for Sarasota was put together was that the effects of the Gulf of Mexico would soon supersede the cool, dry air mass in place over the southeastern US. We were right, but not in the way we though. Everyone had forecast a substantial warm up, but that never came, because it was the moisture that returned first. Clouds and a splash of rain prevented temperatures from rising more than a degree at the top end, and everyone whiffed on that drizzle. The National Weather Service narrowly surpassed the crowd, but it wasn’t our best effort.
Actuals: Friday – High 66, Low 38
Saturday – High 67, Low 48

Grade: C-D

Columbia, South Carolina

There is a massive winter storm massing in the northern Plains, and that’s received a lot of my personal attention, but the system is big enough that the entire country stands to catch a little bit of it. What’s to come in the Carolinas?

At 1056AM, ET, Columbia was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with sunny skies. There was a return to warmth after a significant winter storm in the region out ahead of the large system moving through the Plains, as warm southerly flow aloft was driving the advance of warm gulf air. Columbia was actually the cool spot at the hour, with several locations in the area already in the 60s.
High pressure will generally keep the region in pretty good shape tomorrow, through with intensifying warm air flow, it could be dirtied by a few mid level clouds and some isolated showers in the afternoon. The cold front attached to the large system in the Plains will produce severe thunderstorms in the Lower Mississippi Valley, however the surface low will become occluded, and the cold front weaker as it travels eastward. It will be weakened still by the time it arrives in Columbia, as it will arrive in the middle of the night, with only some gusty winds and a smattering of showers. Tuesday will be much better, as the sun reappears by noon, allowing for the high temperature to bounce back to something more comfortable.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, a few showers, especially late, High 64, Low 43
Tuesday – Showers in the morning, then clearing, High 62, Low 46 (Non standard)

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine in the morning with more clouds for later in the day.(Late Rain) High 68, Low 42
Tuesday –  Cloudy early with partial sunshine expected late. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 63, Low 57

AW: Tomorrow – Times of sun and clouds High 69, Low 42
Tuesday – After a cloudy start, sunshine returns (early rain) High 66, Low 44

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy (late rain), High 70, Low 42
Tuesday – A chance of showers, mainly before 8am. Sunny, High 65, Low 44

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy, High 67, Low 42
Tuesday – Sunny. A chance of showers in the morning, High 64, Low 46

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with isolated showers, High 70, Low 41
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 65, Low 54

FIO: Tomorrow – Foggy overnight.High 62, Low 45
Tuesday – Rain starting overnight, continuing until morning, and breezy in the afternoon. High 64, Low 46

Obviously, the two outlets that don’t go out as far in their hourlies look to be hurt by this verification. Take a look at the satellite image that the Columbia NWS office links too on their page. Very pretty, but not super helpful.

Sarasota, Florida

Finally! A little bit of breathing room for me, and I am back with a forecast. Let’s take a look at south Florida, where this winter has been unusually brisk, with freezing temperatures all the way down to Orlando and Tampa. Is Sarasota next?

At 1053AM, ET, Sarasota was reporting a temperature of 42 degrees with clear skies. Temperatures and clear skies throughout Florida remained much cooler than the locals are accustomed to, and an undercutting trough held in place by a surface ridge promises to keep temperatures fairly cool for a little bit longer.
Fortunately, as the upper level trough shifts away from the area, the winds will moderate. While there will remain an unusually Arctic air mass atop South Florida, temperatures will trend upwards, thanks to the relatively warm Gulf just to the west. Expect the sun to continue into the weekend.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 62, Low 34
Saturday – Sunny High 66, Low 51

TWC – Mostly sunny. High 65, Low 37
Saturday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine in the morning with more clouds for later in the day. High 71. Low 47

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine in the morning with more clouds for later in the day. High 64, low 35
Saturday – Nice with times of sun and clouds High 68, Low 46

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny,High 62, low 38
Saturday – Partly sunny, High 68, Low 47

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 63, Low 34
Saturday – Partly sunny, High 70, Low 45

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 63, Low 36
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 68, Low 47

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy until night. High 64, Low 39
Saturday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 69, Low 50

Gradual improvement! We’ll take what we can get, I suppose. Below is a satellite image, showing that its not even active in the Tropics