Category Archives: Forecast

Pittsfield, Massachusetts

Today we head to far western Massachusetts, home of the Berkshires! Let’s see what the next couple days have in store for some foliage viewing!

At 1054pm EDT, the temperature in Pittsfield, MA was 54 degrees under overcast skies. An area of low pressure is shifting through the Eastern Great Lakes and trailing a cold front down into the Ohio Valley. This low pressure is expected to shift through the Northeast and New England throughout the day Tuesday, bringing periods of moderate to heavy rains to western MA. Shower activity should trail off during the overnight hours and with high pressure building over the area Wednesday, a fairly decent day looks to be in store!

Tuesday: All-day rain chances, better chance of afternoon thunderstorms. High 68, Low 52.
Wednesday: Showers trailing off shortly after midnight. Clouds clear out by afternoon. High 65, Low 51.

TWC :Tuesday: Afternoon thunderstorms. High 67, Low 53.
Wednesday: Cloudy. High 64, Low 57.

AW: Tuesday: A little rain. High 66, Low 54.
Wednesday: Clouds and sun; pleasant. High 66, Low 59.

NWS: Tuesday: Chances of showers early, then heavier afternoon rains. High 65, Low 52.
Wednesday: Isolated early morning showers, then partly sunny. High 67, Low 58.

WB: Tuesday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 65, Low 53.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. High 63, Low 52.

WN: Tuesday: Cloudy with light showers. High 65, Low 50.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 67, Low 57.

FIO: Tuesday: Rain starting in the afternoon. High 70, Low 53.
Wednesday: Rain overnight. High 66, Low 52.

Rain showers are shifting through the region, with heavier ones on the way moving in midday.

Pascagoula, Mississippi

Let’s go ahead and get away from the East Coast for a little while, and move towards the Gulf Coast. Not quite the same, even if they are seaside.

At 243PM CT, Pascagoula was reporting a temperature of 91 degrees with fair skies. A stationary boundary that stretched along the Gulf Coast was touching off some isolated thunderstorms in the region, including one cell just north of Biloxi. Thunderstorm activity will likely diminish as the afternoon wears on and instability dissipates.
The boundary is appended to Tropical Storm Leslie, who is presently spinning in the north Atlantic, not threatening any land masses. Because there isn’t much momentum delivered to the region by the parent low, the threat for rain will lessen in the next couple of days, despite little change to the synoptic pattern. More sun and fewer clouds might lead to an extra degree or two on the high end.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny with isolated thunderstorms possible, High 92, Low 71
Tuesday – Mostly sunny with isolated thunderstorms in the area, High 91, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. high 86, Low 76
Tuesday – Partly cloudy early. Scattered thunderstorms developing in the afternoon.  High 88, Low 76

AW: Tomorrow – Some sun, then turning cloudy, a shower or thunderstorm; humid, High 88, Low 74
Tuesday – Partial sunshine; warm and humid High 89, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly sunny, High 86, Low 77
Tuesday – A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Partly sunny High 87, Low 76

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 87, Low 75
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the morning then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 88, Low 74

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 86, Low 77
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 87, Low 76

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 88, Low 75
Tuesday – Partly cloudy overnight. High 88, Low 75

There is a threat for some thunderstorms for the next couple of days, but I feel like the the other outlets are overselling the threat and reflecting that in their temperature forecasts. Here is the radar now, with most of the activity lingering down towards New Orleans. 

Blacksburg turns it around

The beginning of the week was quite cool, as a slow moving boundary moved towards Blacksburg a week after the arrival of Florence. Temperatures were unable to get out of the low 60s thanks to the overcast that buried the region. Despite all those clouds, there was only a splash of rain, which was great, given how little the area actually needs. was the only outlet not to have rain on both days, and they did indeed stay dry on Monday, just like those robots said they would. As a result, was the winner.
Actuals: Sunday – .06 inches of rain, High 63, Low 59
Monday – High 62, Low 52

Grade: B-C

Utica, New York

Fall is certainly in the air for much of the country. In New England and the eastern Great Lakes today, though, the only fall people are worrying about is “rain fall”.

At 953AM, ET, Utica was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with overcast skies. Lower clouds were found to the east in the Hudson Valley, while the heaviest rain is found further east in New England. Guidance painted a very damp portrait of the day for Utica, but it looks like they will mostly dodge the significant wet weather. There are a few splashes of rain downstate that could afflict Utica later, but it looks like today will be better than expected. 
A strong upper level trough is sagging into the northern tier of states, but the northerly turning portion of the jet lies west of Utica, which will be good news for local residents not fans of the cold. Even better, the jet trough is forecast to recede to the north, rather than progress eastward, which will prohibit an attendant cold front from advancing towards the Finger Lakes. Instead, high pressure is on it’s way for the weekend in Utica. 
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 62, Low 50
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 61, Low 42

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers early with some sunshine later in the day High 61, Low 52
Sunday – Partly cloudy skies.  High 63, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – A passing morning shower; otherwise, partly sunny High 63, Low 51
Sunday – Clouds and breaks of sun High 62, Low 40

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, mainly before 8am. Partly sunny,High 63, Low 51
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 63, low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. A chance of shwoers in the morning. High 60, Low 51
Sunday – Partly sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. High 60, Low 41

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 63, Low 51
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 63, Low 43

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the morning, continuing until evening. High 65, low 49
Sunday – Partly cloudy starting in the morning. High 65, Low 42

Difference of opinions on the showers on Saturday, but I think it really is looking good. Take a look at this cool satellite image, where you can definitely make out the jet aloft over the northern US.


It’s been pleasantly cool across the northern portion for the country, at least for the last few days, so it’s a bit unusual to look at a forecast for a place like Joplin from the beginning of last week and see temperatures still pinging the low 90s. Victoria-Weather stayed close to the NAM, which had a warmer solution, and that paid off, giving us a narrow victory, in a sweaty SW Missouri. :
Actuals: Monday-  High 91, low 64
Tuesday – High 93, low 69

Grade: B

Blacksburg, pre-Florence

We have two forecasts in the bag for Blacksburg, including one from about 10 days ago as we awaited the landfall of Florence. The thought was that the lingering shower activity in the area would erode and give way to a nice beautiful day before things turned south. Well, that didn’t happen. Rain never cleared out, and showers lingered from last Friday to last Saturday. Not only did that throw precipitation forecasts out of alignment, but the extra clouds also through the temperature forecasts off. In the end, it was Weatherbug who had the top temperature forecast, thanks to their cool bias, but also because they nailed that precip.
Actuals: Friday the 14th, .14 inches of rain, High 75, Low 68
Saturday the 15th, .41 inches of rain, High 70, Low 66

Grade: B-F

Blacksburg, Virginia

We’re going to make a return to Blacksburg today. Fortunately, I have been busy enough in the rest of my life that we didn’t smash these two forecasts back to back. How is southwest Virginia coping in the aftermath of Florence?

At 355PM, ET, Blacksburg was reporting a temperature of 70 degrees with heavy rain. Temperatures have come down swiftly with the rain, and sites nearby, such as Roanoke, which has not seen rain as yet, are still in the low 80s. Given the rain that has afflicted the region over the past couple of weeks, the high country of Virginia was under a flash flood watch. 
The remnants of Florence are spiraling off to sea from eastern Canada, trailing a lingering cold front south to the Appalachians and connecting with a disturbance parked over south Texas. The Canadian feature is going to spin poleward, while the feature in Texas is going to be drawn north into a developing low over the northern Plains. This will leave the boundary over Blacksburg at least through the day tomorrow, and as the Texan feature drifts north, it will be reinvigorated with moisture, which could mean more dangerous rains for the Blacksburg area.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers and storms, High 67, Low 62
Monday – A few less clouds, still a chance for rain, High 68, Low 58

TWC: Tomorrow – Considerable cloudiness. Occasional rain showers in the afternoon High 65. Low 60
Monday – Cloudy with periods of light rain. High 66, Low 58

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy, a couple of showers; cooler but humid High 65, Low 60
Monday – Low clouds, a little rain High 66, Low 59

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers before 9am, then a chance of rain after 9am, Cloudy. High 62, Low 55
Monday – Rain likely, mainly after 3pm. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, High 64, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain, High 65, Low 61
Monday – Rain likely. Patchy fog, High 66, Low 59

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with chance of light showers, High 62, Low 58
Monday – Mostly cloudy with light rain likely High 64, Low 57

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain starting overnight, continuing until morning. High 64, Low 56
Monday – Overcast throughout the day. High 66, Low 57

So that’s quite a bit chillier than what we’ve had going on. The air mass is warmer, but the clouds butted up against the mountain will not be cooperative. Here is a look at the popcorn thunderstorms battering the region this afternoon. Not a good way to dry out, that’s for sure.

A valley floor

Forecasting for the intermountain west should be challenging, and last week, our look at Ogden was indeed a bit rough around the edges. The high temperature forecast was spot on, and there was no rain, as we all expected, but those low temperatures. Sheesh. Those lows ended up at least 10 degrees under the forecast, and that was true for every one of our forecasting outlets, for both days of the forecast period. Sorry, Utah. Weatherbug had the top forecast, for whatever that’s worth.
Actuals Tuesday the 11th, High 86, Low 48

Wednesday the 12th High 80, Low 47

Grade D

Joplin, Missouri

The weather community in the United States is rightfully keeping our focus on the Carolinas this weekend as Florence continues to drench the region. Joplin is another place, though, with a sad note in American weather history. Hopefully, there is nothing traumatic on the way for the Ozarks this September.

At 453PM, CT, Joplin was reporting an extraordinary 89 degrees with mostly clear skies. Temperatures this warm this late into the year a pretty unusual, and the sunny skies in the region don’t suggest a change in the near future.
The current pattern is quite long ranged, with a broad upper level jet stretching from California to the St. Lawrence Seaway. The essentially straight jet, in addition to Florence holding up traffic in the east, means that the broad area of high pressure in the central Plains isn’t going anywhere. Expect more sun and more warmth to begin the week in Joplin,
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 90, Low 68
Tuesday – Sunny, High 92, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies.  High 90, Low 67
Tuesday – Mainly sunny High 90, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow  Mostly sunny; very warm and humid High 89, Low 67
Tuesday – Mostly sunny; humid High 90, Low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 90, Low 69
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 67
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 90, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 69
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 70

FIO: Clear throughout the day. High 88, Low 68
Tuesday Clear throughout the day. High 90, Low 69

I’m going with a warmer solution, contrary to my counterparts. The NAM isn’t usually the most reliable, but in the middle of the continent, it can be, and it has been in the past 24 hours. Satellite here is focused on Florence, but even if it doesn’t afflict Joplin, it’s worth looking at. 

Gordon comes Grazing

As we sit around watching the destruction of Florence in and around Wilmington, we can think back to last week when it was Gordon we were worried with. He traveled up towards the Great Lakes, and is now a floating mass of detritus in eastern Canada. Before it got to that point, there had been a chance that the feature would bring a little bit of rain to Knoxville, and it sure did. It brought a very little bit of rain to Knoxville. The mountains deflected wet inflow, for the most part, and they stayed dry until a tail extending from the storm brought a little bit of moisture to Rocky Top. There was a 4 way tie atop the leaderboard that would have been undone by, had they had any rain at all in the forecast. 
Actuals: Saturday – High 89, low 71
Sunday – .01 inches of rain, High 89, Low 71

Grade: B