Category Archives: Forecast

Thunderstorms and heat – summer in the south

There wasn’t a strong, well organized system expected to move into the southern United States as last week concluded, unless you think that the rotation and axial tilt of Earth is a strong, well organized system. Monroe saw just what every town in the south is constantly threatened by on Thursday and Friday. Hot weather with isolated thunderstorms in the area. The forecast was not a particular revelation, as the pattern was one that is seen the region over this time of year, so there is some justice in the fact that there was a four way tie atop the leaderboard. Victoria-Weather, The Weather Channel, National Weather Service and Forecast.io all took a share of the lead.
Actuals: Thursday – Thunderstorms reported, not measured, High 92, Low 76
Friday – Thundestorms reported, not measured, High 95, Low 73

Grade: B

Stormy Saturdays

The forecast for Dothan heading into the weekend was a pretty typical summer forecast for the region, constant chances of afternoon thunderstorms. One just passed by the area on Friday, but Saturday saw a direct hit, dumping over an inch of rain in the process. It was a close battle, but WeatherNation edged out VW and the NWS by a single point.

Friday: Thunderstorm reported in vicinity. High 94, Low 76.
Saturday: 1.04″ in thunderstorm. High 93, Low 72.
Forecast Grade: B-D

Dothan, Alabama

Today we head down towards the Gulf Coast region to find out how the fine people of Dothan, Alabama are doing today. Is a dry start to the weekend in store or will thunderstorms dot the landscape?

At 153am CDT, the temperature at Dothan, AL was 77 degrees under fair skies. Activity has subsided during these overnight hours as per usual. High pressure founds off the Southeast coastline extends its axis into the northern Gulf of Mexico, suppressing chances of any nocturnal activity from really reaching them. Some scattered airmass thunderstorms are expected to pop up during the afternoon hours on Friday, which is pretty typical for these summer months in the Deep South (gotta love that GOM moisture!). Tail end of a boundary looks to swing into the region on Saturday, however, which is expected to increase the coverage of thunderstorms throughout the region. Constant daylong rains aren’t expected, but odds are Dothan will see some storm activity over the next couple of days.

Friday: Scattered afternoon thunderstorms. High 92, Low 75.
Saturday: Thunderstorms likely. High 89, Low 74.

TWC: Friday: Afternoon thunderstorms. High 91, Low 75.
Saturday: Scattered thunderstorms. High 87, Low 74.

AW: Friday: A thunderstorm around. High 92, Low 75.
Saturday: A stray afternoon t-storm. High 88, Low 75.

NWS: Friday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 93, Low 75.
Saturday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 89, Low 75.

WB: Friday: Increasing chances of afternoon thunderstorms. High 89, Low 75.
Saturday: Chances of thunderstorms. High 87, Low 76.

WN: Friday: Partly cloudy with scattered storms. High 93, Low 75.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with scattered storms. High 90, Low 75.

FIO: Friday: Light rain starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. High 90, Low 73.
Saturday: Rain starting in the morning. High 88, Low 75.

Much of the Gulf Coast region is clear tonight, but the afternoon hours the next couple days should paint a different picture as diurnal convection develops.

Monroe, Louisiana

Tomorrow – Isolated thunderstorms, High 94 Low 73
Friday – Mostly cloudy, a few thunderstorms, High 94, Low 73

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning followed by scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon High 92, Low 76
Friday – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning. Cloudy skies late High 91, Low 75

AW: Tomorrow – Sunshine and patchy clouds with a thunderstorm in parts of the area in the afternoon High 91, Low 76
Friday – Periods of sun and clouds with a shower or thunderstorm in the area High 91, Low 76

NWS:: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny,  High 92, Low 76
Friday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny,  High 91, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Becoming mostly cloudy. High 91, Low 76
Friday – Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 90, Low 76

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 91, Low 77
Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, HIgh 91, Low 75

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain in the afternoon and evening.High 93, Low 75
Friday – Light rain until afternoon. High 92, Low 74

Enjoy the forecast, I hope residents of northern Louisiana are able to endure the heat!

Bend, Oregon

Happy Independence Day everybody! Hopefully you had an enjoyable extended weekend and got to enjoy some fireworks today. As we ease our way into a short work week, let’s head off to Central Oregon and find out what’s happening in the lee of the Cascades!

At 555pm PDT, the temperature in Bend, OR was 91 degrees under fair skies. A broad upper-ridge is found over the western US with a lingering boundary/low pressure system found over eastern Washington. the boundary is expected to dissipate by tomorrow morning, but essentially a thermal low is going to continue hanging out over eastern sections of WA/OR over the next couple of days as toasty temps in the 90s are anticipated. Very little chance is anticipated in the overall pattern as we push into the weekend, so in the meantime, the conditions in Bend will be hot and quiet.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and hot. High 92, Low 56.
Thursday: Continued sunny and hot High 93, Low 57.

TWC: Wednesday: Sunny. High 95, Low 58.
Thursday: Sunny. High 94, Low 58.

AW: Wednesday: Mostly sunny and hot. High 93, Low 55.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and hot. High 93, Low 55.

NWS: Wednesday: Sunny. High 93, Low 52.
Thursday: Sunny. High 94, Low 57.

WB: Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 90, Low 58.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 90, Low 58.

WN: Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 93, Low 52.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 93, Low 57.

FIO: Wednesday: Clear throughout the day. High 89, Low 61.
Thursday: Clear throughout the day. High 88, Low 62.

Here we see much of the western US is clear and quiet, just some high wispy clouds over eastern OR. Much of the same is in store for the next couple of days as temperatures remain high.

A comfort zone

July began in Columbia by finding a rut and sticking to it. There was only a difference of 1 degree between the highs on Sunday and Monday, while the lows were exactly the same. There was a big difference in precipitation, though, as the isolated showers and storms didn’t affect the South Carolina capital, but they clobbered the town on Monday, as the promised low level wave cruised through town. Maybe waded through town is a better descriptor, as it didn’t move terribly quickly. The Weather Channel inched past the other competitors, thanks to a some serious consistency and now bad verifying times.
Actuals: Sunday – High 94, Low 73
Monday – .49 inches of rain, High 93, Low 73

Grade: B-C

Not as toasty as advertised

The heat was expected to roast the Yakima Valley at the end of the most recent work week. Forecast highs for Yakima on Thursday and Friday were universally in the 90s, but thanks to the spurious winds of the inter-mountain west, that potential was only barely reached. It remained in the 80s on Thursday, and climbed up to 93 on Friday, but with temperatures dropping all the way to the mid 50s on both days of the forecast period, it never seemed as warm as had been feared. Weatherbug had the coolest forecast of all outlets, and won the forecast.
Actuals: Thursday – High 88, Low 55
Friday – High 93, Low 55

Grade: B-D

Columbia, South Carolina

Let’s check out the weather in the Carolinas tonight. Anyone going to have a problem with that?

At 933PM, ET, Columbia was reporting fair skies with a temperature of 83 degrees. to the southeast, Aiken was reporting thunder, and there was an isolated cell in Saluda County producing severe winds. Heavier rain was being seen on radar to the east, particularly in and around Florence and its neighbors to the south. The activity isn’t well organized, being generated in conjunction with the tail end of a trough that lies mostly offshore.
That weak feature will be replaced by a different weak feature, a low level trough moving from Mississippi and Alabama to the Carolinas by Monday. Lazy summertime thunderstorms will be possible both Sunday and Monday, but as that little wave moves into the Palmetto State, that activity will become much broader in coverage.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers and thunderstorms, High 95, Low 75
Monday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms, High 89, Low 77

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 95, Low 74
Monday – Mixed clouds and sun with scattered thunderstorms. High 91, Low 75

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with clouds and sun; widely separated thunderstorms in the afternoon High 96, Low 75
Monday – Sunshine and patchy clouds with a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 92, Low 75

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, High 96, Low 75
Monday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Partly sunny, High 93, Low 76

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 93, Low 76
Monday – Partly sunny in the morning, thenn mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 87, Low 76

WN: Tomorrow –  Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 97, Low 75
Monday – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 93, Low 75

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain overnight and in the evening. High 94, Low 75
Monday – Rain starting in the morning. High 88, Low 76

WeatherNation made it difficult for me to get to the forecast for Columbia, South Carolina. Even when I would have Columbia, SC in the search bar or even select the option, it would send me to Columbia, Missouri, or, once, Washington, DC. I had to manually enter the browser address. WeatherNation should lose points for that. Here is the radar. Since the forecast started, I should note that severe storms have moved into Columbia.

No rain, but a lot of heat

Fort Collins, just on the lee side of the Rockies promised to be at the leading edge of any warm up in the Plains, after a broad, overwhelming trough smothered half of the United States. There was a threat that there would be a few isolated strong thunderstorms at the leading edge of this emerging heat wave, but those storms ended up erupting as far east as Nebraska, leaving Fort Collins to swelter in hot downsloping flow, completely avoiding any rain. Temperatures ultimately blew past anyone’s imagination, reaching 97 degrees on Tuesday. Victoria-Weather had one of the better temperature forecasts (still not great), but were pushed to victory because we left rain out of the forecast. It was in Nebraska, for heaven’s sake! I say we were more than just a little lucky.
Actuals: Monday – High 89, Low 50
Tuesday – High 97, Low 52

Grade: C-D

Yakima, Washington

All right, pals, let’s go to the Pacific Northwest and see if we can’t stir up some weather.

At 953PM, PT, Yakima was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 72 degrees. Winds were brisk through the Yakima Valley, but that was simply the bluster of undulating terrain and not a sign of any significant weather to come.
A sharp, short waved ridge is moving through the Pacific Northwest over the next couple of days, and it will keep Yakima in the sun and warmth.  An upper level trough will inch into the region late on Friday and may take a bit of the edge off the heat late in the day, but won’t significantly impact the weather otherwise.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 90, Low 60
Friday – A few clouds, High 92, Low 64

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 91 Low 60
Friday – Sunny. High 95, Low 60

AW: Tomorrow – Periods of clouds and sunshine High 91, Low 54
Friday – Mostly sunny and hot High 96, Low 58

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 91, Low 57
Friday – Sunny, High 94, Low 61

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 57
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 58

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 91, Low 57
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 61

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. Highh 85, Low 59
Friday – Clear throughout the day. Hiigh 88, Low 63

More hot weather in Washington, but the fire danger is waning. Here is the national satellite, because the local imagery is just a map of Washington.