Category Archives: Forecast

Akron, Ohio

Hello, forecast friends! We’re headed off to northeast Ohio, and the home of the Rubber Bowl and at least one very good basketball player and influential humanitarian. Akron, Ohio, let’s go!

AT 251PM, ET, Akron was reporting mostly cloudy skies and a sultry 86 degrees. A cold front sliding through the Great Lakes hasn’t quite become active, but will soon, with severe weather expected this afternoon in the Detroit and Toledo areas. Storms won’t reach Akron tonight, but the southerly flow  leading into the boundary will continue to saturate the atmosphere in northeastern Ohio this afternoon
Storms will move into Akron overnight, and will linger into the morning tomorrow, leading to what projects to be a cool, stormy day. The low associated with this boundary will drfit further north, limiting the cold air and momentum of the front. Storm activity will weaken, but will not advance through eastern Ohio. At the base of the upper level trough, a vorticity maximum will develop late tomorrow in central Illinois. It will follow the jet streak towards Ohio, and will reinvigorate thunderstorm activity for Wednesday. Showers and storms will be persistent, though severe weather isn’t going to be widespread.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and storms, High 84, Low 71
Wednesday – More showers and storms, High 80, Low 67

TWC: Tomorrow – Thunderstorms, High 84, Low 71
Wednesday – Scattered thundestorms, High 82, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – A shower and t-storm around, High 86, Low 72
Wednesday – Variable Clouds, a T-storm, High 84, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Mostly cloudy. High 86, Low 71
Wednesday – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm High 81, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow – 60% Chance of storms High 82, Low 73
Wednesday – 60% chance of storms, High 78, Low 71

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms, High 85, Low 72
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms, High 82, Low 69

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain starting overnight, continuing until evening, High 84, Low 72
Wednesday – Rain in the afternoon, High 80, Low 69

The internet went out here yesterday, so I couldn’t post in a timely manne, but I pulled these forecasts from the mobile site, and grabbed an archived satellite image. I am dedicated. Here is the line of storms firing over the Great Lakes.


Big Sky Bake off

As July fell into February, the mountainous Montana metropolis of Missoula was enjoying some mild air thanks in part to the elevation, but also because it opted to enjoy the Praitie’s cool rather than the Pacific Northwest’s intense heat. As everyone knows, though, warm air rises, and Missoula got much hotter as the foecast period progressed, reaching 95 degrees by Wednesday afternoon. There were no thunderstorms to break the heat, despite the wishes of most residents, but to the benefit of Accuweather, who had the top forecast.
Tuesday – High 85, Low 53
Wednesday – High 95, Low 55

Grade: C


Thunderstorms were in the forecast for southern Georgia as the week ended last week, as an area of low pressure drifted into the Canadian Maritimes, but they weren’t really expected to be especially heavy, nor particularly long lasting. Well, the storm that came through Valdosta late on Saturday wasn’t necessarily the longest lasting storm, but it definitely was heavy. Valdosta reported over 2 inches of rain, which was definitely not in the plans, even though thunderstorms were. All it takes is one heavy storm to sit right over a rain gauge for a little while, and it completely changes the impression of a day.  The Weather Service and Weather Nation combined their powers to win the forecast.
Actuals: Friday, High 91, Low 72
Saturday 2.15 inches of rain, High 92, Low 70

Grade: B-D

Missoula, Montana

Much of the weather has been centered in the High Plains in the last few days, with high pressure parked in the eastern US. In the western US, the story has been the heat. What’s the story between, right in the northern Rockies?

At 1053PM, MT, Missoula was reporting a temperature of 65 degrees with clear skies. Missoula finds itself between two other features, with the trough contributing to the severe weather in rhw High Plains to the south, and a broad upper level trough in Hudson Bay draping a cold front east to west through the central Canadian Prairies.
All things will be moving to the south through the night, meaning the Canadian Cold front is the feature to take note of in Missoula. The heat wave inducing ridge is directed towards western Montana, which will slow the advance of the cold front until after the forecast period is through and notch up temperatures in the interim. Still, expect some increasing clouds which will help allay the heat on Tuesday afternoon.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 88, Low 57
Tuesday – Increasing clouds, High 91, Low 61

TWC: Tomorrow  –  Sunny skies, High 94, Low 53
Tuesday – Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 94, Low 55

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sunshine; very warm, High 93, Low 52
Tuesday – Partial sunshine; very warm High 93, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – Widespread haze. Sunny,High 92, Low 56
Tuesday – Mostly sunny,  (late storms) – High 94, Low 58

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny haze, High 92, Low 52
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 93, Low 54

WN: Tomorrow – Hazy, High 92, Low 56
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 94, Low 58

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the evening. High 89, Low 56
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy starting in the morning. High 93, Low 60

Satellite is pretty dadgum quiet across the west.


Valdosta, Georgia

Let’s take a look at what the end of the week holds for south Georgia, shall we?

At 1253AM, ET, Valdosta was reporting a temperature of 76 degrees with fair skies. High dew points were leading to a little bit of haze in the region, no nearer than Lake City across the border in Florida. A trough could be analyzed lingering just to the north of Valdosta, though it was inactive at this time, waiting for the heat of the day.
A broad, ambiguous surface low associated with a deceptively strong upper level trough is going to continue to cycle more moisture out of the gulf through southern Georgia while an associated, slow moving cold front lingers closer to Nashville. The low will drift north into northern Quebec, and the cold front will advance no further, with moisture and a few showers and storms lingering around Valdosta as the weekend gets going.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with isolated showers and storms possible, High 89, Low 73
Saturday – Isolated showers and storms, High 90, Low 75

TWC: Tomorrow – Partial cloudiness early, with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 89, Low 72
Saturday – Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms High 89, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun, humid; a thunderstorm in spots this afternoon High 90, Low 71
Saturday – Times of clouds and sun, a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 88, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Partly sunny High 91, Low 73
Saturday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8am. Partly sunny High 92, Low 74

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning then showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 87, Low 74
Saturday – Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers, High 86, Low 74

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with thunderstorms likely, High 91, Low 73
Saturday – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 92, Low 74

FIO – Humid throughout the day and mostly cloudy starting in the morning. High 88, Low 72
Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 90, Low 73

There is one solitary thunderstorm that’s cropped up closer to Savannah, but Valdosta looks to be in good shape tonight.

Big Easy verification

I put together a video forecast on Sunday for the city of New Orleans, an unusual happenstance was in the forecast. There was a bona fide front moving through on Monday afternoon, and it brought some synoptic scale showers and storms to the Big Easy, but more impressively, it brought more pleasant weather on Tuesday. Temperatures only dipped a hair, but the northerly breeze must have felt nice. Victoria-Weather and Accuweather shared a tie atop the leaderboard.
Actuals: Monday .16 inches of rain, High 93, Low 78
Tuesday – High 91, Low 82

Grade: B-C

Albany is all right

The end of the week last week in upstate New York was in pretty great shape. Temperatures under high pressure in Albany were in the 80s, with overnight lows in the mid 50s. It got a bit warmer on Friday ahead of an advancing area of low pressure, but the nasty weather held off, of course, until the weekend, but after our forecast period was through. nearly nailed the forecast, and got the win.
Actuals: Thursday, High 83, Low 56
Friday – High 88, Low 57

Grade: A-B

New Orleans, Louisiana

Tomorrow – Scattered showers and storms, some possibly severe, High 92, Low 81
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 79

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few storms may be severe High 91, Low 82
Tuesday – Partly cloudy skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 91, Low 79

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, a shower or heavy thunderstorm; storms can bring flash flooding and damaging winds High 93, Low 81
Tuesday – Mostly sunny; nice High 92, Low 78

NWS: Tomorrow – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny Hgh 94, Low 80
Tuesday – Mostly sunny (rain through 1am), High 92, Low 78

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 89, Low 83
Tuesday – Sunny in in the morning then becoming partly cloudy

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms High 94, Low 81
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 78

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain starting in the morning, continuing until evening. High 89, Low 81
Tuesday – Partly cloudy overnight. High 91, Low 80

So, that will be interesting to watch a real severe weather day. Well, not “real” but “non-topical”.

Sun in the shadow

Last Sunday, we sought a little perspective on the coming forecast for Athens, Georgia. We found that there was a persistent northwesterly flow with high pressure advancing to the area. This placed Athens, and pretty much only Athens, in a rain shadow cast by the Smokey Mountains. The sun was due to be out, and most precipitation was shunted west and south. The correct forecast was to err on the warm, dry side, which Victoria Weather did, winning the forecast by a decent margin.
Actuals: Monday -.07 inches of rain, High 90, Low 73
Tuesday, .01 inches of rain, High 93, Low 72

Grade: A-C

Albany, New York

Hey pals, is anyone interested in a forecast for New York’s state capital? If that describes you, then come along for the ride!

At 1251AM, ET, Albany was reporting a temperature of 62 degrees with clear skies. High pressure in the Great Lakes stretched east into New England and allowed for a pleasant evening after what has been a largely pleasant day as well.
Expect more of the same tomorrow, even though the ridge will be eroding, unseen to residents of Albany. An upper level trough will be nosing into the Great Lakes from the Northern Plains, nudging the high pressure seaward, while instability off the Carolina Coast will be weakening the ridge from the south. This means that there will be a southerly flow in Albany,  but the shower activity to the south will intercept the available moisture, leaving the state capital hotter but still dry on Friday.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 83, Low 56
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 86, Low 58

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies.  High 84, Low 54
Friday  – Mainly sunny. High 88, Low 58

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sun; pleasant High 82, Low 51
Friday – Mostly sunny High 86, Low 56

NWS: Tomorrow  – Sunny,  High 83, Low 52
Friday – Sunny,  High 88, Low 55

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny,  High 80, Low 56
Friday – Sunny, High 85, Low 59

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny,  High 83, Low 52
Friday – Sunny,  High 88, Low 55

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 83, Low 55
Friday – Partly cloudy overnight.High 87, Low 57

Here is a look at a pretty satellite image across the eastern United States as we get ready for a pretty couple of days