Category Archives: Forecast

Spartanburg, South Carolina

We head to Spartanburg during a sensitive time for the community. Area newspeople Mike McCormick and Aaron Smeltzer were killed when reporting on the recent heavy rains in the area when a tree fell on the vehicle they were traveling in.  Hopefully, the families and the area can find comfort and healing.

At 835PM, ET, Spartanburg was reporting a temperature of 72 degrees with thunderstorms. Tropical Storm Alberto now lies centered over western Tennessee, and a feeding band of showers and storms is draped right over Spartanburg, though there was clearing as near as the Greenville area.
Alberto is going to continue to track mostly northward,  which will unfortunately leave the Carolina Upstate well within the intake track of the storm. A subtropical feature moving through the Plains will intercept Alberto around Michigan, but that will only work to enhance the moisture intake by Thursday evening. Expect rainy days and stormy nights for the next couple of days.
Wednesday – Scattered showers and storms, High 83, Low 71
Thursday – Scattered showers and storms, High 85, Low 70

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning becoming more widespread in the afternoon. High 80, Low 69
Thursday – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning, then mainly cloudy during the afternoon with thunderstorms likely. High 84, Low 68

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, a couple of showers and a heavy thunderstorm, mainly later; humid Higgh 80, Low 70
Thursday – Cloudy most of the time, a couple of showers and a thunderstorm, mainly later; humid High 83, Low 69

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 2pm and 3pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 3pm. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, cloudy High 81, Low 71
Thursday – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 3pm. Mostly cloudy High 85, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 79, Low 71
Thursday – Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 82, Low 71

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light showers likely. High 81, Low 71
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely, High 85, Low 70

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain until morning, starting again overnight. High 82, Low 68
Thursday – Light rain starting in the morning, continuing until afternoon. High 82, Low 66

The weather looks rainy and stormy, I’m sorry to report. The region is under a flash flood watch because of the persistent rain, Take a look at the radar, and you can see that band of rain directly over Spartanburg.

Grand Rapids, Michigan

Hope everybody had a pleasant Memorial Day today! Off to the Great Lakes to see how they’ll start off the shortened workweek.

At 1053pm EDT, the temperature at Grand Rapids, MI was 79 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. It was another scorcher today across the region with the high hitting 94 while other areas in the Upper Midwest hit the upper 90s to 100 in MSP. High pressure sitting over southern Hudson Bay nosed over the Great Lakes, keeping the region dry for much of the day before activity ignited over MN/WI, but kept Lower MI dry. This area of high pressure is going to shift off over Quebec tomorrow, allowing the area of low pressure sitting over the Dakotas to push eastward, kicking up the moisture over the region. While the Grand Rapids area should avoid much of the convection expected to ignite off over WI and over northern IN/OH. Wednesday will see a much higher chance of rain moving into the area, but that has little to do with low pressure from the west. In fact, it has more to do with low pressure lifting up from the south, the remnants of Subtropical Storm Alberto! Alberto’s remnant low looks to lift north along the MS River throughout the day tomorrow before moving over the Great Lakes late Wednesday, bringing widespread rain showers with it.

Tuesday: Increasing clouds during the afternoon. High 91, Low 67.
Wednesday: Rain showers becoming more widespread throughout the day. High 84, Low 66.

TWC: Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High 92, Low 68.
Wednesday: Afternoon thunderstorms. High 87, Low 68.

AW: Tuesday: Mostly sunny, hot. High 91, Low 68.
Wednesday: Cloudy, not as humid, couple of evening showers. High 83, Low 69.

NWS: Tuesday: Mostly sunny then scattered thunderstorms. High 92, Low 68.
Wednesday: Chance of showers then showers likely. High 82, Low 68.

WB: Tuesday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 89, Low 68.
Wednesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 82, Low 69.

WN: Tuesday: Site down.
Wednesday: Site down.

FIO: Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High 87, Low 67.
Wednesday: Rain starting in afternoon. High 79, Low 65.

The weather over Lower Michigan is pretty quiet tonight, however we can see the clusters of thunderstorms popping off over MN and WI. Conditions will slowly become more active over the next couple of days.

Weather Wayback… what was up in Washington?

When I looked back at an October forecast for Bremerton, opposite Seattle on Puget Sound, I was struck by one thing: The monotony of the temperature forecasts. No forecaster strayed more than a degree for their forecast high from day to day, and the biggest change in the low temperature forecast for any forecaster was 2 degrees. Across the board, including all highs and lows, both for Sunday and Monday, the range in temperatures was a high of 61-64 to a low of 41-45. Wouldn’t you know it, then, that literally every forecast was busted on day one, Sunday the 15th, when the high was 60 and the low 35. Monday cooperated, as well it should have, given the uniformity of the forecasts.  Victoria-Weather had the top forecast for the day.
Actuals: Sunday, October 15th – High 60, Low 35
Monday, October 16th – High 62, Low 41

Grade: C

None of the wheat, all of the chaff

The Inter-Mountain West is presently being put through a fairly early bout with the monsoon. Most of the activity has been confined to the Rocky Mountain peaks, but some of that convective activity billowed back into the Ogden area. It was enough to keep temperatures cool — at least cooler than some outlets thought it would be. Some of those clouds came with clouds, but there were only a couple of drops on Tuesday, really messing with the final veryification numbers. The Weather Channel drew level with Weatherbug, thanks to precipitation issues.
Actuals: Monday – High 78, Low 53
Tuesday – .01 inches of rain, High 69. Low 55

Grade: A-C

Ogden, Utah

The forecast for the night takes us to the second largest city on the shores of the Great Salt Lake, Ogden, Utah. Summer is coming to the Great Basin as much as anywhere else, so what does that mean in northern Utah?

At 1153PM, MT, Ogden was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 57 degrees. The afternoon was marked by scattered showers and thunderstorms across the interior west, though most of that activity was found in higher terrains north and east of Ogden. The thunderstorm activity is a sure sign that the seasonal monsoon was in effect, a fair bit earlier than it is usually expected.
A cut off area of circulation at the upper levels is going to emerge over the next 12-18 hours over California, orphaned from the main jet after initiating as a sharp trough along the Pacific Coast. The jet streak will flame out by the end of the day Tuesday, but not before rotating northeast through eastern Utah. This little feature will enhance showers and storms along the eastern face of the Rockies, and over the Sierras tomorrow, but it will wait until the very end of the day on Tuesday to have an impact on Ogden, thanks to the distance from any real moisture sources. Nevertheless, there should be a rumble of thunder on Tuesday evening as a result of our cut off low.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 77, Low 54
Tuesday – Afternoon showers and thunderstorms, High 76, Low 53

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny along with a few clouds. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 78, Low 55
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with afternoon showers or thunderstorms High 69, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine; breezy in the afternoon (PM thunder) High 78, Low 54
Tuesday – Times of clouds and sun, a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 74, Low 56

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny High 79, Low 53
Tuesday – A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly cloudy, High 76, Low 56

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy, High 77, Low 53
Tuesday – A slight chance of rain showers in the morning, then a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy, High 72, Low 56

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 79, Low 56
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 76, Low 56

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting overnight, continuing until night. High 76, Low 54
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy until evening. High 74, Low 56

Satellite isn’t really showing any convective cloud cover. Totally tranquil at night in the Rockies, but it might get a little more active through the beginning of the week.

Weather Wayback… Sun when it really counted

In early October, not long after we put together the forecast for La Crosse, Anthony assembled a forecast for Danville, Virginia, that got a little bit more out of hand than anyone really anticipated. With forecasts pegged in the upper 70s to low 80s on October 10th and 11th, the temperatures instead climbed all the way to 87 on both days, thanks to sun that shone brightly on the town from the early to mid afternoon, just when it had it’s maximum impact. The sun mixed with heat and humidity, destabilizing the environment and leading to evening thunderstorms on each day of the forecast, moreso on Tuesday the 10th than on Wednesday. Victoria-Weather narrowly surpassed our rivals, though the warmth was more than anyone truly anticipated.
Actuals: October 10th – .47 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 87, Low 72
October 11th – Trace of rain in thunderstorms, High 87, Low 67

Grade: C-D

Weather wayback…. History repeats

With a large system presently moving through the south central United States, cooler weather is being pulled into the Upper Midwest, as though a cold front has just sneaked through the region without our knowledge. There wasn’t any rain, but suddenly it’s noticeably cooler.  Something similar happened back in early October in La Crosse, Wisconsin, where temperatures on the 8th were in the upper 70s. Then, despite the fact that there had been no rain to speak of, it cooled by about 10 degrees on the 9th. Smarty-pants Anthony saw it coming, however, and tied atop the leaderboard with The Weather Channel.
Actuals: October 8th – High 78, Low 53
October 9th – High 69, Low 43

Grade: C

An extended vacation

The last few days have been on repeat, with showers and storms slicing from the Ohio Valley and south through the central Plains. When this pattern set up, it did so just to the southeast of Lincoln, so after the first round of showers on Friday morning, it got significantly cooler as Mother’s Day weekend approached. Ahead of that, however, we had our forecast period in Lincoln, and it was warm and mostly sunny, without a drop until after the forecast period was over. The mid 80s in mid-May, especially after a long winter and a head of a return to some chillier air was certainly a welcome turn of events. Forecast.io snuck in and won the day.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 86, Low 57
Thursday – High 86, Low 55

Grade: B-C

Storms get a bit out of hand

Let’s first state something about the Holland, Michigan forecast and the weather there through the middle of the week: For the most part, it was a pretty decent few days for locals in western Michigan. Wednesday evening got a little bit wild, as strong thunderstorms moved  into the area, dropping a half inch of rain in Holland, but also leading to some storm reports both to the north and south of Holland in Allandale and South Haven, respectively. The good news is that the threat for showers and thunderstorms was there for every forecast, so it wasn’t unanticipated, and though there was some property damage, there were no injuries or anything worse. Victoria-Weather had the top forecast for the day.
Actuals, Tuesday – High 76, Low 41
Wednesday – .48 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 79, Low 53

Grade: A-C

Weather Wayback…. Before and after winter

I think that most people would consider May to be a warmer month than October, just in general. October is autumn and time for football and Halloween. May is spring, baseball and Memorial Day.  Naturally, that leads to this segue: When we forecast for Owensboro back in October the temperatures reached the mid-80s as winter approached. Now, coming out of the longest winter ever*, it’s presently in the 70s in Owensboro. It wasn’t a particularly irksome forecast, and there were some good scores all around, especially from Victoria-Weather and The Weather Channel, who locked horns at the top, for a drive.
October 3rd – High 84, Low 64
October 4th – High 86, Low 62

Grade: A-B

*Not actually a fact