Category Archives: Forecast

Medford, Oregon

At Purdue, they have a capstone course called “Forecasting” in which you take into account all your learning of your previous 4 years and put them into your first actual operational forecasts. The very first city we were given  as an assignment was Medford. The town holds a special place in my heart.

At 953PM, PT, Medford was reporting a temperature of 45 degrees with overcast skies. Currently, a deep upper level trough was keeping a strong area of low pressure spinning off the coast of British Columbia. While the jet trough works it’s way southeast towards the coast, the surface system will continue to spiral off shore, battering western Washington with gusts, which will eventually translate south through the Oregon Cascades.
Tomorrow will be a breezy day as the low stages off the coast, with the cold front moving slowly into the Olympic Peninsula. The front will start moving more rapidly towards the coast late on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. A perturbation at the base of he low will begin to slide up the front and will enhance rainfall as it hits northern California, with the complex, with the cold front and the vort max arriving in Medford on Wednesday afternoon. While it will be a cloudy, rainy and windy afternoon and evening in town, don’t be surprised if there is snow at the higher terrains.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and windy, HIgh 53, Low 37
Wednesday – Cloudy with rain and wind in the afternoon, with snow in higher elevations, High 47, Low 39

TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny. High 55, Low 38
Wednesday – Showers early, becoming a steady rain later in the day. High 50, Low 40

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 55, Low 38
Wednesday – Rain High 51, Low 40

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 54, Low 39
Wednesday – Rain likely, mainly after 10am. Cloudy High 50, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers in the morning then partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 52, Low 38
Wednesday – Cloudy. Chance of rain in the morning then rain in the afternoon. High 49, Low 39

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 54, Low 39
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with light rain likely, High 50, Low 40

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon (early rain) High 54, Low 41
Wednesday – Light rain starting in the afternoon, continuing until night. High 47, Low 42

There is a little bit of rain in the Medford area right now, but it looks like it is kicking out of there, and wasn’t reaching the ground anyways. Besides, I really just wanted to show off this whirl of low pressure off the coast of British Columbia.

Santa Barbara keeps the beach open

Despite a couple of systems pummeling the Pacific Northwest, it seemed as though Santa Barbara transcended all climatological concerns. The sun was out for the most part, but there were a few clouds to prevent too much sunburn in case anyone forgot the sunscreen.  In general, the flow off the Pacific was less robust than the forecast called for, which resulted in temperatures being a hair warmer than anticipated during the day. Overnight, however, the weaker flow meant clear skies, which are nice, right up until those temperatures start dropping. With no marine layer, overnight lows dropped to the upper 40s, which allowed Victoria-Weather to rise up and take the victory in the very pleasant Santa Barbara.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 72, Low 47
Thursday – High 70, Low 49

Grade: C-D

Palm Bay, Florida

Today we head down to the Sunshine State as hurricane season looks to be winding down. Is something out on the horizon cause for concern or will this week be fairly quiet?

At 853pm EST, the temperature at Palm Bay, FL was 75 degrees under a few clouds. The good news is no tropical systems look to affect the FL Peninsula over the next couple of days, or really for a while at all as the only possible area of organization is waaay out over the Atlantic. A large area of high pressure is found over the Eastern US, keeping much of the country east of the Mississippi River dry. However, this area of high pressure is steering some shower activity that pops up over the Gulf Stream westward over the eastern shores of the FL Peninsula, which should be somewhat on the numerous side tomorrow. Wednesday will still see some activity, but more of the isolated to widely scattered variety. In any event, it should be a nice couple of days, but don’t be surprised if you have to dodge a couple of quick showers.

Tuesday: Few scattered showers possible. High 78, Low 70.
Wednesday: Isolated showers possible. High 77, Low 69.

TWC: Tuesday: Showers likely. High 78, Low 71.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy, couple of isolated showers possible. High 77, Low 69.

AW: Tuesday: A brief shower or two. High 78, Low 72.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with a shower. High 78, Low 70.

NWS: Tuesday: Chance of showers. High 78, Low 69.
Wednesday: Chance of showers. High 78, Low 67.

WB: Tuesday: 50% chance of rain showers. High 76, Low 71.
Wednesday: 40% chance of rain showers. High 77, Low 69.

WN: Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 79, Low 68.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. High 78, Low 65.

FIO: Tuesday: Partly cloudy starting overnight, continuing until night, chance of afternoon showers. High 78, Low 70.
Wednesday: Breezy until morning and partly cloudy with isolated showers throughout the day. High 78, Low 69.

There’s a couple bands of showers pushing their way onshore currently, and are expected to become a little bit more widespread tomorrow during the day.

Chico dips its toes into fall

Temperatures in Chico started a slow descent towards winter over the past couple of days. After a cold front moved through northern California, temperatures failed to get out of the 50s for the next two days. The cooler temperatures were certainly autumnal, but the lack of rain in the area, despite a somewhat active pattern is distinctly Californian. The Weather Channel was in a three way tie for the lead when looking solely at temperatures, but they skyrocketed to the lead when they withheld rain from the forecast
Actuals:  Sunday – High 57, Low 44
Monday – High 59, Low 42

Grade: A-B

Santa Barbara, California

We’re on the way to the beach in southern California, which sounds like an altogether wonderful idea.

At 953PM, PT, Santa Barbara was reporting a temperature of 54 degrees with clear skies. The entirety of southern California was seeing a sky full of stars, and satellite indicates that the marine layer is non-existent tonight.
A strong area of low pressure will be moving towards the Pacific Northwest through the day tomorrow, and arrive by late in the day. As it advances eastward, and then lingers over Washington on Friday, a steady onshore flow should bring a few clouds to the higher terrain inland from Santa Barbara, and a refreshingly cool flow to town.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 68, Low 50
Thursday – Sunny, High 68, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High 70, Low 53
Thursday – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 70, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy and pleasant High 71, Low 53
Thursday – Pleasant with periods of clouds and sun High 72, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny,  High 72, Low 56
Thursday – A 20 percent chance of rain before 10am. Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 58

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 70, Low 55
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 69, Low 55

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 56
Thursday – Psrtly cloudy with isolated showers, High 70, Low 58

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the morning. High 69, Low 58
Thursday – Partly cloudy until evening. High 69, Low 58

Temperatures are dropping much faster than guidance had indicated. My forecast reflects an anticipation of that trend continuing. A look at the satellite shows the entire lack of clouds.

Persistent overcast gives rise to inconsistent drizzle

After a cold front moved through the Joplin area late last week, clouds hung around well beyond their welcome. There was never any clearing, which was somewhat unexpected. We all knew that Friday was probably a lost cause, but the continued cloudiness on Saturday was a real downer. Temperatures were at least 5 degrees off the most conservative estimates, and some of those clouds even led to a bit of drizzle mid-day on Saturday, which was almost entirely unexpected. Accuweather wasn’t quite as on their heels as other outlets, and picked up on that precipitation forecast, but their temperatures were far enough off, that the best they could do was a tie with The Weather Channel for the title in Joplin.
Actuals: Friday – High 62, Low 50
Saturday – Trace of rain, High 67, Low 49

Grade: C-D

Chico, California

Chico is the sight of the very first ever forecast on Victoria-Weather, more than a decade ago. I suspect that the weather will be a touch different than it was back in the olden days.

At 949, AM, PT, Chico was reporting overcast skies and a temperature of 54 degrees. There was light rain being reported in Susanville and more moderate rain to the southeast towards Lake Tahoe, while wind vectors indicated that the responsible boundary lay between Chico and Red Bluff. This particular wave is winding down in Chico, but will continue to bring snow to the high Sierras as a trough is angled southwest into the Pacific. A steady stream of moisture will pump into the mountains, in what is good news for the very dry Central Valley as they look forward to next spring.
An undercutting jet trough is expected to phase into the trough already influencing northern California’s weather, as a weak area of low pressure will slide into the Pacific Northwest by the end of the weekend. As the low continues to move into the Great Basin, an associated cold front will pass through the northern Valley, including a brief stop in Chico. It’s not out of the question that the city sees another bout of light rain in time for the morning rush on Monday, giving way to another dry but cloudy day to start the week.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 57, Low 44
Monday – Light rain early, then overcast, High 59, Low 46

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 57, Low 41
Monday – Mainly sunny.  High 59, Low 43

AW: Tomorrow – Mainly cloudy and cool with a couple of showers High 57, Low 42
Monday – Sunny much of the time and cool (early rain) High 59, Low 44

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 57, Low 40
Monday – Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, sunny, High 60, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 58, Low 42
Monday – Patchy fog in the morning. Mostly sunny. High 61, Low 47

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 57, Low 40
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 60, Low 40

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the morning (late rain).High 56, Low 42
Monday – Partly cloudy until morning (early rain). High 58, Low 43

Wow, everyone is all over the place on this forecast. It will be quite interesting to see how it plays out! Here is a look at the Sacramento radar, showing heavier precipitation around Lake Tahoe.

Joplin, Missouri

Joplin is one of those cities what will always echo in the memories of meteorologists. It was the home of one of the largest tornadoes in history, and always seems to be in the crosshairs of something ominous. Let’s hope that’s not the case tonight!

At 953PM, CT, Joplin was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with overcast skies. A cold front has moved through this evening and lies south of Branson and Rolla, but isn’t yet to West Plains or Harrison, Arkansas, and there are a few  thunderstorms remaining along the line. Chilly high pressure is on its way south into the Plains to ensure the rest of the evening will be dry.
An undercutting jet streak in the central Rockies will help stir up more trouble sooner rather than later. The pattern in the central US will be muddled, but a strong area of low pressure will be developing in the northern Rockies and northern High Plains. A resultant return flow will bring overcast and some light precipitation to the region tomorrow evening into early Saturday morning. A warmer high pressure will return to Joplin just in time for the weekend.
Tomorrow – Cloudy with some late showers, High 61, Low 48
Saturday – Sunny, High 72, Low 49

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 63, Low 50
Saturday – Cloudy skies early, followed by partial clearing. High 72, Low 49

AW: Tomorrow – Rather cloudy and cooler; an afternoon shower in places High 65, Low 51
Saturday – Mostly cloudy and warmer with a passing shower High 74, Low 49

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of drizzle before 4pm, then a slight chance of showers or drizzle after 4pm. Patchy fog before 1pm. Otherwise, cloudy, High 61, Low 52
Saturday – Partly sunny, High 78, Low 53

WB: Tomorrow – Cooler.Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog in the morrning. Slight chance of drizzle through the day. High 62, Low 52
Saturday – Warmer. Partly sunny. High 71, Low 50

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with slight chance of light drizzle, High 61, Low 52
Partly cloudy, Hgh 78, Low 53

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day and breezy starting overnight, continuing until morning. High 64, Low 53
Saturday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 71, Low 53

We’re all over the map on this forecast. The placement of clouds and how much sun can actually peak through will really affect the reliability of this forecast! Here is the radar, with showers already through town.

Philippe can’t be contained

The remnants of Philippe moved through the mid-Atlantic and brought a nice spat of rain and wind to New England and the Chesapeake. He also flared up just as he made his landfall, and became broad enough to keep clouds and rain over our forecast city of Youngstown for both the two days of our forecast period. A cold front swept through on Sunday, but more rain fell on Monday with the backwash from the deepening Nor’Easter. Only half of the outlets had rain in the forecast, but Weathebug outpaced the field on temperatures by so much that they won despite having rain only with that cold front.
Actuals: Sunday .08″ of rain, trace of snow, High 44, Low 35
Monday – .11″ of rain, High 42, Low 37

Grade: C

Ogden, Utah

Today we head off to Ogden, UT, surrounded by the picturesque Rocky Mountains on one side and the Great Salt Lake on the other. Will we close out the month of October with beautiful weather to match the scenery?

At 1020pm MDT, the temperature at Ogden, UT was 45 degrees under fair skies. Low pressure found over the Desert Southwest will be pushing through the Four Corners area and into the Central Plains over the next couple of days. Widespread high clouds are found over the region tonight but those will be shifting out of the region with the low pressure throughout the day Tuesday. Weak high pressure shifts overhead for Wednesday bringing warmer temps and mostly clear skies to the area. Looks like it’s shaping up to be a nice couple of days!

Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High 55, Low 34.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warmer. High 65, Low 41.

TWC: Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 55, Low 33.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 65, Low 43.

AW: Tuesday: Partial sunshine. High 54, Low 34.
Wednesday: Pleasant and warmer. High 64, Low 39.

NWS: Tuesday: Sunny. High 54, Low 31.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 63, Low 37.

WB: Tuesday: Sunny. High 53, Low 32.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 63, Low 38.

WN: Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 54, Low 31.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 63, Low 37.

FIO: Tuesday: Partly cloudy starting in the evening. High 53, Low 33.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 60, Low 37.

Some cirrus clouds are found over the region as a system starts to get going over the Four Corners region. Luckily for us, these clouds will be shifting out of the region tomorrow and clears out for midweek!