Utica, New York

It’s been a big weather week in the southern US, and all that activity is moving the north-northeast. At least Utica is accustomed to big snow, in case that is what is on the way.

At 153PM, ET, Utica was reporting a temperature of 25 degrees with overcast skies. The low pressure that has been bringing so much pain and heart break to the southern US has shifted predominantly off shore, but an inverted trough is pointed through New Jersey towards Binghamton. Light snow was falling across the Poconos and was headed towards Utica.
Snow will continue in the area as low pressure becomes distended perpendicularly across the Gulf Stream. The cold front will stall, and so too will the inverted trough across New York. Light snow showers are going to continue in Utica at least through the day tomorrow as reorganization begins in the southeastern US. Troughing will be tilted aloft, which will be conducive to further cyclogenesis. The reborn feature will get stronger tomorrow night into Saturday morning. The feature will shift into the North Atlantic and drag wet weather along with it. Late Saturday will be cool but dry.
Tomorrow – Snow likely all day, High 30, Low 19
Saturday – Some early snow, then clearing and cold, High 26, Low 17

TWC: Tomorrow – Variable clouds with snow showers High 32, Low 21
Saturday – Overcast. A few flurries or snow showers possible. High 27, Low 19

AW: Tomorrow – Periods of snow, accumulating 1-3 inches; storm total snowfall 3-6 inches High 33, Low 24
Saturday – Remaining cloudy and breezy with a couple of flurries High 30, Low 24

NWS: Tomorrow – Periods of snow, mainly before 1pm, then scattered snow showers after 2pm High 32, Low 20
Saturday – A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy High 27, Low 18

WB: Tomorrow – Snow. Total snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. High 32, Low 22
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. High 28, Low 22

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with light snow likely, High 32, Low 20
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with chance of light snow showers, High 27, Low 18

FIO: Tomorrow – Foggy throughout the day. High 35, Low 22
Saturday – Foggy overnight and in the morning. High 28, Low 18

It’s going to be a smattering of snow across the region, which will last for quite a while, and thankfully not a big storm like they saw in the south, or really like they can see with a lake effect feature. Here is the radar right now, with a lot of coverage, but not much heavy precipitation.

Dubuque, Iowa

We’re headed to the northern US tonight to see what catastrophe is happing up there. Catastrophes everywhere.

At 1153PM, ET, Dubuque was reporting clear skies and a temperature of -8. Dubuque was smack dab within the upper level trough responsible for the wild weather in the south, and the cold weather in the Plains. A feature tolling along the base of the trough is going to trigger change across the nation.
An inverted rough will be directed to the north from the advancing low in the Lower Mississippi Valley, and will pass over eastern Iowa through the day Wednesday. There won’t be a lot of moisture available to this disturbance, but with temperatures as cold as they are, big, dendritic flurries are more than possible. As the feature propagates, it will elongate, and circulation will become distorted. With less northerly flow, Thursday looks to be the first day of a true warming trajectory.
Tomorrow – Flurries, High 12, Low -10
Thursday – Warmer and partly cloudy, High 17, Low 2

TWC: Tomorrow- Partly cloudy skies during the morning hours will become overcast in the afternoon High 17, Low -9
Thursday – Partly cloudy skies. High 22, Low 1

AW: Tomorrow – Some sun, then turning cloudy and cold; a little snow this afternoon with little or no accumulation High 15, Low -5
Thursday – Cold with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 21, Low 2

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly after 2pm. Patchy fog before 8am High 14, Low -12
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 21, Low 3

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning. A 40 percent chance of light snow in the afternoon, High 13, Low -6
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 18, Low 2

WN: Mostly cloudy, High 14, Low -12
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 21, Low 3

FIO: Tomorrow -Overcast throughout the day. High 17, Low -11
Thursday – Foggy until morning, starting again in the evening. High 23, Low 4

Clear night in Dubuque. Brr. But at least good news is on the way.

Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Hattiesburg is among the many, many cities nation wide that is experiencing cold that they are wholly unaccustomed to. Particularly in the southern United States, record cold on top of a huge winter storm is working to exasperate the situation. Lets see if there is any hope for improvement for these next couple days.

At 653PM, CT, Hattiesburg was reporting cloud skies and a temperature of 23 degrees. The deep, strong, broad trough across the country is still holding firm to it’s place over the Plains. Another round of snow and ice is currently falling over the Red River Valley, getting ready to shift into a more moisture rich environment to the east.
The wet weather will arrive in Mississippi towards afternoon tomorrow. The freezing line right now looks to slice just to the north of town, while enough warm air is expected to be drawn north to keep Hattiesburg in the rain overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, though an ice storm is anticipated across the rest of Mississippi. The wavelength of the jet trough will contract after the storm has pushed to the east, and cold air will be able to dig south, leading to a chilly end of the week in Hattiesburg, but with the promise of some warmth soon after.
Tomorrow – Rain, sometimes heavy and embedded with thunder late in the day. High 46, Low 20
Thursday – Rain early, then clearing and chilly, High 45, Low 33

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming cloudy with periods of rain later in the day. High 46, Low 21
Thursday – Showers in the morning, then cloudy in the afternoon. High 44, Low 37

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and cold; a passing shower in the afternoon High 47, Low 19
Thursday – Occasional rain and drizzle in the morning; otherwise, mostly cloudy and cold High 42, Low 35

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, High 44, Low 23
Thursday – Rain and thunderstorms likely before 1pm, then a chance of rain. Cloudy, High 47, Low 36

WB: Tomorrow – Showers likely, and a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. High 45, Low 20
Thursday – Light rain and thunderstorms likely in the morning then a chance of light rain in the afternoon. Cloudy. High 42, Low 36

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers likely, High 44, Low 23
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely, High 47, Low 36

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain until night, starting again in the afternoon, High 46, Low 24
Thursday – Rain overnight and in the morning, High 49, Low 32

I’m not so sure about the threat for thunder. The system has a lot of juice, but I’m not sure there is enough instability in the region. Still, there is going to be a healthy dousing of rain, perhaps over a half inch. If that all freezes on contact to the north, it could be a scary situation from Jackson north towards Memphis and Tupelo. This is a big time system. Here is the next round of wet weather on satellite over the Red River Valley.

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES ABI BAND 14 OR_ABI-L1b-RadC-M6C14_G16_s20210480131035_e20210480133407_c20210480133535.nc

Feature Forecaster Adam Claibon, from KING 5 in Seattle

Adam Claibon with KING 5 in Seattle is our guest forecaster today. Adam has even taken the time to put together a full video run down of the pending weather in Seattle for this weekend, and to teach us all a little bit about himself and the city he calls home.

With extremely cold weather coming in east of the Rockies, rain actually sounds pretty good, doesn’t it?

Thanks to Adam Claibon for putting together this forecast! You can find him on Twitter @ACLAIBONWX and on TV on KING 5 in Seattle.

Dallas, Texas

Honestly, is there anything better than referring to an entire region as “The Metroplex?” I’m not sure there is. It sounds so futuristic.

At 853PM, CT, Dallas was reporting a temperature of 50 degrees with fair skies. There was a strong cold front trailed along the Gulf Coast which was bringing quite a bit of rainfall east of Texas, but the real story for the week is the strong Arctic trough plunging into the eastern two thirds of the country.
A sharp perturbation at the nadir of the jet trough will make for some wintry weather through the southern Plains tomorrow morning, but all guidance seems to agree that Dallas will remain south of the jet stream over the weekend. A few scattered showers may crop up in the Piney Woods, but the Dallas appears to be looking for a dry, cool, windy weekend.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy early, clearing and breezy, High 60, Low 44
Sunday – Sunny and brisk, High 61, Low 33

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy early, then afternoon sunshine. High 58, Low 43
Sunday – Partly cloudy skies. High 62, Low 34

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of Sun, High 56, Low 34
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 62, Low 33

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 60, Low 40
Sunday – Sunny High 61, Low 34

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then clearing, High 55, Low 43
Sunday – Sunny, High 56, Low 36

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 60, Low 40
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 61, Low 34

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 64, Low 41
Sunday – Clear throughout the day. High 61, Low 43

Here is the satellite imagery for Dallas tonight, with the bright clouds over east Texas thanks to the cold front, while the jet itself is represented by the lighter clouds to the north. Keep an eye in Oklahoma for a real mixed bag tomorrow morning!

Brunswick, Georgia

We have spent a lot of time in the western United States lately, so I find it refreshing to return to the east coast. What kind of weather will we see in an entirely different time one than I’ve become accustomed to?

At 155PM, ET, Brunswick was reporting a temperature of 61 degrees with clear skies. Strong winds aloft have produced inland clouds, but they were scoured along the coast, where things are a few degrees cooler. The jet, just to the north of the Brunswick area is helping to facilitate high pressure across the region.
The strong jet will merge with a more northerly jet streak, which will set up an upper level convergence point, where showers and isolated embedded rumbles of thunder can develop. That activity will be to the west if Brunswick through most of the period, however increasing clouds will be likely on Thursday, with rain sneaking into the picture by early Friday morning.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 68, Low 41
Thursday – Increasing clouds, High 66, Low 43

TWC: Tomorrow – Plentiful Sunshine, High 66, Low 41
Thursday – Mostly cloudy, High 65, Low 42

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 67, Low 42
Thursday – Pleasant with intervals of clouds and sun (PM Showers) High 67, Low 44

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 65, Low 43
Thursday – Partly sunny, High 64, Low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. High 67, Low 43
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 64, Low 42

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 65, Low 43
Thursday – Mostly cloudy, High 65, Low 43

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 67, Low 42
Thursday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 68, Low 42

The website I have used for model guidance has been taken down. This was a long forecast to write, but not terribly difficult! Here is satellite imagery showing off some clouds resulting from the local jet streak.

Billings, Montana

Let’s forecast again! We haven’t done that for a while, so let’s head for the High Plains and do that!

At 953PM, MT, Billings was reporting mostly cloudy skies and a temperature of 32 degrees. The northern Rockies were at the eastern crest of an extremely eastward tilted ridge. Mid level clouds were present in the turbid flow aloft, but dry weather was seen at the surface throughout Montana.
The ridge will nose in, almost along a west to east axis, cutting a trough over the southwestern US. The northern portion of the trough ridge will become it’s own jet streak, aiding an Alberta Clipper late in the forecast period. While this may make things a bit breezier, Billings will be well south of the feature, and will be in the process of getting warmer thanks to the upper ridge, and flow off the Rockies.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High, 40, Low 25
Wednesday – Breezy early, partly cloudy, High 48, Low 30

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny. Becoming windy late. High 41, Low 24
Wednesday – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 48, Low 32

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny; breezy in the afternoon High 42, Low 25
Wednesday – Strong winds gradually subsiding; periods of clouds and sunshine High 47, Low 31

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 44, Low 24
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 48, Low 31

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 41, Low 25
Wednesday- Decreasing clouds, windy, High 46, Low 31

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 44, Low 24
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 48, Low 31

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 44, Low 27
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 47, Low 31

A look at the national satellite shows the sweeping high clouds over the southern US, which is the jet stream forming the base of a severely tilted trough. It’s keeping Billings out of trouble, though!

Fresno, California

All right everyone, it’s time to get in our first 2021 forecast, which will take us to the state of the last forecast of 2020 – California. Let’s go!

At 453PM, PT, Fresno was reporting a temperature of 58 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A large Gulf of Alaska storm system is looming off the Pacific Coast, ready to move inland, and prefrontal southerly flow ahead of the system has already arrived, bringing additional moisture and the overcast presently in the area. The primary thrust of this system will arrive on in the late morning tomorrow.
The system will swiftly move through northern California, and be out of town shortly after nightfall on Monday. Most of the precipitation will be found north of Fresno, and snow will fall in the mountainous terrain due north of town. A bubble of high pressure will trail this ridge, making for a decent enough Tuesday, but with the spectre of more inclement weather on the horizon.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a few shots of rain, High 59, Low 45
Tuesday – Clear and calmer, High 58, Low 41

TWC: Tomorrow – A mix of clouds and sun in the morning followed by cloudy skies during the afternoon. High 63, Low 44
Tuesday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 59, Low 42

AW: Tomorrow – Sun and some clouds High 58, Low 43
Tuesday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 58, Low 41

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly after noon. Increasing clouds, High 58, Low 41
Tuesday – Areas of fog before 10am. Otherwise, partly sunny, High 56, Low 42

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers in the afternoon, High 61, Low 47
Tuesday – Mostly Sunny. Areas of fog in the morning, High 58, Low 45

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 59, Low 44
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 56, Low 41

FIO: Tomorrow – Areas of fog before 10am. Otherwise, partly sunny, High 61, Low 43
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 63, Low 41

Here is a look at a particularly busy West Coast satellite. There are a lot of clouds coming to the California coast tomorrow, but it’s moving fast, given the size of the system.

Bakersfield, California

I hope everyone had a happy Holiday. If you were among the millions who were in the midst of winter weather during the Christmas Season, then I hope this forecast for southern California can fill you with warmer thoughts.

At 1054AM, PT, Bakersfield was reporting light rain and a temperature of 54 degrees. A narrow band of showers lay across the southern Valley, with more industrious precipitation in the higher terrain of the Sierras and Tehachapi Mountains. This was a more forceful preview of a storm coming later today and early in the workweek.
A deep trough digging into the Pacific Coast is a tailing lobe over a broader jet trough covering the better part of the northern half of the country. The precipitation follows the course of the exiting part of the jet streak from the lobe, but a well defined area of surface low pressure looms off the California coast. Rain and mountain snow will really intensify overnight tonight, with the feature fully onshore shortly after midnight. Rain is likely in Bakersfield, but significant snow in the mountains ringing Bakersfield are all under Winter Storm advisories. The good news is that the storm will move quickly, and be chased out by dry California air by the end of the day. Tuesday looks to be atypically cool, but dry.
Tomorrow – Rain likely, otherwise mostly cloudy, High 56, Low 46
Tuesday – Early AM drizzle, then sunny and cool, High 52, Low 40

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies during the morning hours will become overcast in the afternoon (early rain) High 57, Low 46
Tuesday – Considerable clouds early. Some decrease in clouds later in the day. High 55, Low 33

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a shower in spots HHigh 56, Low 45
Tuesday – Periods of clouds and sunshine High 54, Low 40

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain likely, mainly between 8am and 9am. Patchy fog between 7am and 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, High 54, Low 43
Tuesday – Partly sunny, High 51, Low 41

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain, High 56, Low 44
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly sunny, High 53, Low 42

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light rain likely, High 54, Low 43
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 51, Low 41

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain overnight and in the morning. High 57, Low 44
Tuesday = Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 55, Low 41

Model guidance definitely doesn’t fully clear the Bakersfield by the early afternoon tomorrow, as some outlets suggest, but Bakersfield is not an easy place to get steady precipitation, which is why nobody carries it as late as we do. Still, it arrived early, so why not stay a while? Here is the radar, with that rain hanging around, especially in the mountains.

Akron, Ohio

It worked out mostly by accident, but today is the beginning of the NBA season, featuring the reigning champions, the LA Lakers, and their star, LeBron James, from Akron. It was meant to be.

At 851PM, ET, Akron was reporting a temperature of 37 degrees with overcast skies. Winds were light across the region, but generally southerly in response to a warm front over the northern Great Lakes right now. The warm front is attached to a rapidly strengthening area of low pressure that promises to ruin the end of the week in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
The clouds over Akron right now are chaff found across the Eastern Great Lakes, which will shunt off to the northeast as warm air advances in ahead of the cold front coming through later this week. Wednesday should be warm, but increasingly windy and cloudy, with the front arriving on Christmas Eve, near dawn. It should be warm enough that it will start with rain, with a secondary circulation rising from the Tennessee Valley towards eastern Ohio. This advance will stall the cold air, which will dlay the transition to snow until much later, perhaps until the evening on Christmas Eve.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, increasingly windy and cloudy, High 50, Low 32
Christmas Eve – Rain starting early, intensifying and then turning to heavy wet snow around nightfall. 2-4″ by midnight. High

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies (Late rain). High 51, Low 33
Christmas Eve – Rain early with snow in the afternoon. High 51, Low 27

AW: Tomorrow – Mild with sun through high clouds; breezy in the afternoon (Late RAin) High 50, Low 30
Christmas Eve – Rain mixing with, then changing to snow late, accumulating 1-3 inches; watch for a rapid freeze-up High 47, Low 25

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 49, Low 31
Christmas Eve – Rain before 2pm, then rain and snow between 2pm and 4pm, then snow after 4pm. High 46, Low 24

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy (late rain) High 48, Low 34
Christmas Eve – Rain, Snow in the afternoon. Light snow acumulation, High 49, Low 27

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with isolated showers, High 49, Low 31
Christmas Eve – Cloudy with a wintry mix, High 47, Low 39

FIO: Tomorrow – Windy overnight and in the evening. High 50, Low 32
Christmas Eve – Rain (with a chance of 2–4 in. of snow) throughout the day. High 48, Low 22

It’s too bad that the forecast couldn’t come in the midst of wet weather. The NWS has rolled out new radar imagery and I could have used it. Alas, here is a look at Akron, on the cusp of clear skies. Don’t get used to them.