Humid but dry
Posted by Ryan
Oklahoma City is in the throes of tornado season. with the threat for thunderstorms on Sunday residents certainly should have been keeping an eye to the sky for threatening weather. They probably also recognized that the dew point temperatures, in the upper 60s, were providing a ripe environment for strong thunderstorms, seeing as how many most Sooners have experienced. And then... the storms didn't happen. It stayed hot, humid and most of all, quiet in OKC. Everyone was clustered near the same score, but Accuweather was a hair better.
Actuals: Saturday, High 89, Low 63
Sunday - High 87, Low 68
Grade: C
Elmira, New York
Posted by Ryan
Off to western New York for this overnight forecast. Is it going to be good weather for the second week of May? No? What can we expect?
At 1253AM, ET, Elmira was reporting a temperature of 48 degrees with clear skies. A dew point near 40 coupled with those clear skies suggests a threat for fog overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. An upper level trough in the central Plains is generating quite a bit of unsettled weather in the Great Lakes. A fairly strong upper level ridge lies over the mid-Atlantic as well, however the persistence of the trough west of town has established something of a dry line through northern Pennsylvania.
The upper level trough will do little by way of movement, however the ridge will push further north, meaning warmer conditions, and the introduction of more moisture, and a messier surface state. Showers and storms will crop up through the day on Monday. Guidance suggests enhancement of a low level trough over the eastern Great Lakes, artificially propogating a surface cold front. In plain English, that means showers and thunderstorms will become much more well organized, perhaps even severe, through the day Tuesday.
Tomorrow - Scattered showers and storms, High 66, Low 44
Tuesday - Showers and thunderstorms, possibly severe late, High 68, Low 53
TWC: Tomorrow - Showers High 66, Low 46
Tuesday - Rain / Thunder High 70, Low 53
AW: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers High 68, Low 41
Tuesday - Periods of rain High 69, Low 53
NWS: Tomorrow - Showers likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy High 65, Low 42
Tuesday - Showers and possibly a thunderstorm High 68, Low 52
WB: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy. Showers likely...mainly in the afternoon High 65, Low 43
Tuesday - Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. high 68, Low 51
So, the answer is "no" when asking whether or not the weather looked good for Elmira this week. Here is the satellite, showing the cloudy mess as it sits presently over the western Great Lakes.
Well, oops
Posted by Ryan
I don't know if you missed it, but we had a forecast for La Crosse, Wisconsin on Thursday. (You missed it, I had to toggle it over to published just now when I couldn't find it on the page. That would be the "oops"). Anyways, things in La Crosse porteded to be stormy. And they were, in fact, stormy. Stormy to the tune of temperatures being 5-10 degrees off the forecast highs, depending on who you talked to. The models, and most of the forecasts called for "isolated" storms, but successive squall lines definitely threw everything out of whack. In the end, Weatherbug was the only outlet that scored above "D".
Actuals: Friday, .45 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 66, Low 55
Saturday - .19 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 64, Low 53
Grade: C
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Posted by Ryan
This seems the right time of year to put together a forecast for Oklahoma, right? IT's tornado chasin' season!
At 552PM, CT, Oklahoma City was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees. A dry line extended through western Oklahoma, with cooler dew points allowing for temperatures to climb all the way to the mid 90s on the western side of the dry line. Additionally, the dry line has produced strong thunderstorms, particularly to the southwest, including a cell southwest of Lawton. A severe thunderstorm watch was posted in southern Oklahoma and part of central Texas. The severe weather didn't appear to be a threat for Oklahoma City.
The dry line will hover through the center of the state through the weekend, however it will remain fairly inactive. Instead, dry dew points will move into Oklahoma City, and temperatures will be allowed to warm dramatically. As much of the southern US has experienced, central Oklahoma will see a an early dose of summer, with hot, dry air settling in tomorrow. A bit better organization with a system moving through the Northern Plains on Sunday will redirect flow, and the dry line will again set up west of OKC, meaning a return of humidity.
Tomorrow - Hot and dry. High 92, Low 71
Sunday - Humidity returns, still warm, High 89. Low 71
TWC: Tomorrow - Sunny High 94, Low 67
Sunday - Isolated T-Storms High 90, Low 71
AW: Tomorrow - Partly sunny, very warm and humid with the temperature approaching the record of 94 set in 1940 High 92, Low 70
Sunnday - Breezy and humid with times of clouds and sun High 89, Low 71
NWS: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny High 93, Low 70
Sunday - A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny High 88, Low 70
WB: Tomorrow - Partly cloudy High 94, Low 70
Sunday - Partly cloudy with slight chance of thunderstorms. High 87, Low 70
The models were very different, but everyone came to approximately the same conclusions. The NAM, which most people discounted, wanted a high in the mid 90s (compared to about 90 from the GFS) tomorrow, while calling for a high of 80 on Sunday (compared, again, to a 90 from the GFS). These forecasts could totally bust, especially if the dry line doesn't retrograde to where we think it will on Sunday. Radar shows the cell southwest of Lawton. It looks beastly.
La Crosse, Wisconsin
Posted by Ryan
It's been pretty crazy with the weather today in the upper Midwest. The pattern is tremendously disorganized too, which makes things all the more enjoyable, meteorologically. So let's get this show on the road.... I guess.
At 253PM, CT, La Crosse was reporting sunny skies and a temperature of 80 degrees with sunny skies. The heavy thunderstorms they saw this morning have left a good deal of moisture in the gound, leaving dewpoints at the surface in the low 60s. While the upper level pattern has been one of clarity, the surface is dynamic with a miasma of stationary surface boundaries and outflows, ready to set off thunderstorms really at any juncture. A complex of storms developing on the Minnesota/Iowa state line will likely influence La Crosse later this evening.
A weak ridge is developing into the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest, and will strengthen though the course of the next 48 hours, however a strong push of cold air is likely what is needed to clear out the surface instability for good. Given the way the system has produced convection, it would not be a surprise to see showers and storms each of the next two days.
Tomorrow - Isolated showers and storms, High 77, Low 60
Saturday - Mostly sunny, isolated storms, High 75, Low 56
TWC: Tomorrow - Isolated T-Storms High 73, Low 60
Saturday - Isolated T-Storms High 71, Low 53
AW: Tomorrow - Very warm with times of clouds and sun; a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 78, Low 61
Saturday - Times of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm around High 76, Low 56
NWS: Tomorrow - A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm High 75, Low 60
Saturday - A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 70, Low 54
WB: Tomorrow - Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 73, Low 58
Saturday - Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms High 68, Low 52
The models are actually putting out PoPs of less than what people are forecasting. The coverage we have seen with convection so far this week has people a little trigger shy today. Here is a look at the satellite. It's pretty messy, really.
Breaking free
Posted by Ryan
After what was a crummy day for Springfield on Saturday, things made a decided improvement on Sunday. The weekend was saved! A cloudy, drizzly atmosphere cleared out just enough for a 15 degree improvement. Not a bad way to finish the weekend, eh? A three way tie between ourselves, The Weather Service and Weatherbug was found atop the forecast leaderboard.
Actuals: Saturday .30 inches of rain, High 48, Low 39
Sunday - High 66, Low 38
Grade: C
Oh So Close
Posted by Anthony
Ryan mentioned that the NWS kept precip out of Davenport until after 1AM on Saturday. Unfortunately, for the NWS that is, a rain shower moved in around 11PM Friday night. This messed up their otherwise superior temperature forecast and out of 1st place. V-W and the Weather Channel took advantage of their misstep and tied for the top spot.
Friday: 0.01" of rain in a light shower. High 59, Low 37.
Saturday: 0.84" of rain in an early morning thunderstorm. High 48, Low 41.
Forecast Grade: B
Dry Detroit
Posted by Ryan
Things worked out quite nicely for denizens of Detroit to end the week. There was rain in the forecast the past two days, but that never quite happened, with the city instead seeing dry, if cloudy skies. Temperatures were significantly cooler than what most of the country has come to expect this spring, but as they say, you win some, you lose some. The Weather Service won this one, from a forecasting standpoint.
Actuals: Thursday - High 59, Low 42
Friday - High 55, Low 34
Grade: B
Springfield, Ohio
Posted by Ryan
There are a lot of decent sized towns in Southwestern Ohio, much to everyone's surprise. Actually, probably not. Everyone probably already knew that.
At 1156AM, ET, Springfield was reporting a temperature of 46 degrees with clear skies. It was cooler than it's been for much of the spring, as a ridge spilled south from Canada. A strong system has developed over the northern Plains that will eventually bring some wet weather to Springfield, but eventually lose it's organizational structure well ahead of it's arrival in southwestern Ohio.
While some systems develop impressively rapidly, this system will completely fall apart with stunning efficiency. The primary center of low pressure will remain parked over the Dakotas as a remnant warm front stalls over the Ohio Valley. The associated rainfall, wind and clouds from the system will vanish across most of the system, but there may be a lingering shower threat through the weekend for Springfield.
Tomorrow - Scattered showers late, and cloudy, High 53, Low 38
Sunday - Showers and clouds, but warmer, High 63, Low 40
TWC: Tomorrow - Rain showers in the morning with scattered thunderstorms arriving in the afternoon. High 57, Low 39
Sunday - Mostly cloudy (early showers). High 63, Low 36
AW: Tomorrow - Periods of rain High 55, Low 41
Sunday - Warmer with intervals of clouds and sun high 63, Low 41
NWS Tomorrow - Showers High 46, Low 41
Sunday - Mostly cloudy (early showers) High 60, Low 39
WB: Tomorrow - Showers likely in the morning...then showers with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 46, Low 41
Sunday - Partly cloudy (early rain) High 60, Low 39
Everyone looks to be in agreement on Springfield this weekend. At least there is a warm up for Sunday! Look how strong the low over the Plains looks today, compared with how weak it will be going forward.
Idaho weather goes south
Posted by Ryan
It was downright steamy in northern Idaho on Wednesday, as many expected, but it was even warmer than anyone had anticipated. Lewiston hit nearly 80 degrees on Wednesday. Rain and clouds changed things up significantly on Thursday, however, with temperatures 20 degrees cooler. Victoria-Weather handled to the forecast and the changing conditions the best, earning the top spot.
Actuals: Wednesday - .01 inches of rain, High 79, Low 57
Thursday - .27 inches of rain, High 61, Low 47
Grade: C