We’re driving southward today, trying to get to Atlanta before Hurricane Delta finds the coast. We should be able to do it, as our drive will only last a day and cover 505 miles, doing so at a pace of a little over 62mph. Try to limit stops and use hand sanitizer!
Delta hit the Yucatan this morning and is spilling into the Gulf tonight. It pulsed down before it hit Cancun, and will be weakened when it arrives in the Gulf. Still, it’s previous intensity, and further ramping up will entrap nearby atmospheric moisture, and while the eastern US is under high pressure, the sea breezes will be turned off too. The entire drive from Terre Haute to Atlanta will be under mostly clear skies, with seasonable warmth.
All right, Weather Channel, we’re coming for your back yard.
At 852PM, ET, Atlanta was reporting a temperature of 66 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. Tropical Storm Gamma was interfacing with low pressure in the Gulfstream, with clouds streaming across the southeastern United States. Atlanta was at the northern end of of the band of clouds, but Atlanta was the only place that was reporting anything close to overcast conditions. High pressure is building into the Plains, and that will build into north Georgia as well, rendering the next two days quite pleasant. As Gamma unfurls, there might be a band of showers over central Georgia on Tuesday morning, but nothing well organized or long lived will transpire. Over the long term, Tropical Depression 26 bears monitoring not only for the Gulf, but specifically for the Atlanta area by next week. Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 78, Low 55 Tuesday – Sunny, High 79, Low 57
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies, High 76, Low 52 Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 78, Low 55
AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with plenty of sun, High 78, Low 53 Tuesday – Pleasant with plenty of sun, High 78, Low 57
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 77, Low 53 Tuesday – Sunny High 76, Low 55
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 75, Low 53 Tuesday – Sunny High 77, Low 56
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 55 Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 76, Low 54
FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 79, Low 54 Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 78, Low 57
Atlanta looks ok today, but as I said, the Gulf bears monitoring.
It’s autumn, and it ure feels that way east of the Rockies, even if that’s not the case along the west coast. We’ll take a 4 day run to Puget Sound, which will cover 2182 miles. There is a lot of interstate contained on this route, even if we are covering some high terrain, so the pace will be about 68.2 mph, good for 545 miles a day.
DAY ONE (Thursday)
One of the factors in the Upper Midwest being cooler than normal is the presence of deep low pressure over Labrador, which is swinging more cold air and troughing into the area. It will clear up today in Michigan City, but more drizzle and clouds will emerge by tomorrow morning, and will be the situation through most of our Thursday drive. Some drips and drops will spatter our windshield through Chicago, Milwaukee and Madison, and probably won’t truly clear up until after we pass through LaCrosse. We’ll make it to Lakefield, Minnesota before we pull off for the night.
DAY TWO (Friday) High pressure is entrenched west of that deep area of low pressure. There might be a few high streaking clouds over the western Dakotas, but I would hard pressed to believe they will touch the ground. We’ll traverse South Dakota and clip northeastern Wyoming before we stop in Boyes, Montana, a ghost town in the southeastern corner of the state. It’s going to start warming up by the end of the day.
DAY THREE (Saturday) The entirety of our day will be spent in the windswept prairies of eastern Montana, and the peaks of western Montana that will be significantly less windswept, and definitely not as cool as you might hope. We’ll make it to Wye, on the northwest side of Missoula, and call it a night.
DAY FOUR (Sunday) The best news for our Sunday drive is that the threat for wildfires in the Pacific Northwest has significantly lessened. It will be dry and unseasonably warm in the interior west, before it gets a bit more comfortably as we head north from Seattle into Bellingham.
It’s interesting how things can change, isn’t it? Usually, when we consider a forecast for a place like western Washington, we would wonder about the threat for rain, but now we are left speculating about the continued impact of so little rain.
At 1253PM, PT, Bellingham was reporting a temperature of 69 degrees with clear skies. There isn’t much going on in the Pacific Northwest, and the only activity on the west coast satellite imagery was smoke emanating from fires in northern California. Strong low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska is barricaded by high pressure in the west coast. A strong ridge aided by some southerly flow will ensure that Washington remains clear and dry for at least the next two days. Tomorrow – High 75, Low 52 Wednesday – High 76, Low 52
TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny High 72, Low 53 Wednesday – Sunny. High 75, Low 54
AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with plenty of sun High 71, Low 52 Wednesday – Warm and smoky with hazy sunshine High 72, Low 52
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73, Low 53 Wednesday – Sunny, High 74, Low 55
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 71, Low 52 Wednesday – Sunny, High 73, Low 56
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 74, Low 53 Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 55
FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 72, Low 51 Wednesday – Clear throughout the day. High 74, Low 55
Pretty quiet in western Washington, but no news isn’t always good news. Here is a look at the satellite with fires blazing across western Washington.
Youtube user Tyler Spiedel had a Go Pro camera set up as the now infamous Iowa derecho blew through Cedar Rapids. For those that weren’t in it, it is a good demonstration of the sustained intensity of this particular storm, and the destruction it caused. Derechos look in many ways like hurricanes more than they do tornadoes.
Fortunately for Midwesterners, human and otherwise (see: The deer at about 40 seconds) storms of this intensity are extremely rare. When they do arise, though, the devastation is widespread.
The main topic of conversation in the weather community over the last couple of weeks has been twofold. Either we were talking about the wildfires in the west, or the hyperactive Atlantic, which at one point had 5 active named storms in the Atlantic.
The fires are temporarily tamed, but check out the NHC’s forecast page right now.
Not only are there no active tropical features, but there isn’t even anything on the horizon. The United States and the rest of North America should have a quiet tropical week or two. Thank goodness.
Of course, this should be paired with the standard notice that we are still in late September, and while we are on the other side of the tropical season peak, we are still in a point in the year that is typically fraught with cyclonic peril. Just because it is quiet now doesn’t mean we are out of the woods for the rest of the year. Check back in by the end of the week, and I’m sure there will be something out there to monitor.
Some of the most vibrant and horrible images of the last few weeks have been from the west coast, where smoke from fires had polluted the skies, turning cities from Seattle to the Bay Area an eerie, haunted shade of red.
After the conflagrations had exploded across he region, under a high pressure regime that trapped the ash and haze near the surface, reducing air quality, visibility and sense of reality. Setting aside the summer long conditions, and climatological deterioration that helped set the ground work for the fires, the high pressure was a short term weather pattern that made things worse over a broader area.
The attendant jet also spilled into the middle of the country, and brought all that smoke with it, rendering most of the country hazy. Fortunately, one feature was going to come through and help with both situations. A trough of low pressure.
Well hallelujah. Early this weekend, a weak, but still strong enough area of low pressure came through the area and scoured the atmosphere of smoke and ash and made life and the air a bit more livable. This is a recent capture from the Space Needle’s skycam.
Not only does this removed the smoke from Seattle, but also removes it from the jet stream, clearing skies through the Midwest as well.
Hopefully, the worst is over, even as fires rage in the Cascades. At least, the impact is no longer felt as severely for as far away as it was earlier this month.
Above is this evening’s satellite picture of the Atlantic. Usually, when we discuss the tropics, we can focus on one storm, or if it’s particularly busy, we can look at the western Atlantic and appreciate the activity bubbling up in September.
We need an entire corner of the Earth to fully capture what’s going on, and even then, we can count our blessings that Tropical Storm Alpha has already expired over the Iberian Peninsula, otherwise we wouldn’t be looking far enough to the east to fully encompass all the activity.
Right now, the biggest and most intense storm, right in the middle of the Atlantic, is Teddy. Teddy will only be what we call a “nautical concern” for the next few days as he drifts through the Sargasso Sea. Still, he is a strong enough storm that a hurricane landfall will be possible in Nova Scotia, of all places.
Wilfried is still far enough to the east that she is not a terrible threat, and will continue to be a fish storm, like Teddy but significantly weaker. That leaves Beta.
Tropical Storm Beta stands to become the third Greek Letter hurricane in history, after Beta and Epsilon in 2005. It’s curly path may result in an extended stay off shore. A trip further inland by the middle of next week would surely accelerate deterioration of the storm. Wind and surge don’t look like the primary threats with Beta, but rather rain, like Sally in the Southeast.
There is a lot made out of the prolificity of the 2020 season, but one bit of good news is how infrequently these storms have developed into hurricanes. While there have been a bunch of named storms, and we we will surely surpass 2005 in the number of such storms, we aren’t nearly to the pace of hurricanes as that horrible year. We are on the downslope of the hurricane season now, and hopefully the back side of this peak decelerates much more quickly than it ramped up.
An anomalous batch of cold air settled into the High Plains late last week, bring snow to Denver shortly after they saw triple digits. The cold air spread across the Front Range, and that included places as far south as the Mexican Border. The cold air hung on for a couple of days even in Las Cruces thanks to a cut off low in the region. The cooler forecasts prevailed on this forecast, which is not something you can say that often. Forecast.io nabbed the top forecast honors as the only outlet not to forecast precipitation on Thursday morning. Actuals: Thursday – High 64, Low 49 Friday – High 73, Low 56