Coming Soon….

The transition to spring is one of the most interesting times of the year for forecasting. Fortunately, we have several of those for your enjoyment.

Road Trip from Jackson, Michigan to Manchester, New Hampshire

Merced, Calfornia

Flint, Michigan

Augusta, Georgia

San Angelo, Texas

Owensboro, Kentucky

San Antonio, Texas

Longview, Texas

It’s been quite a while since we stopped by Texas for a forecast. Let’s do it!

At 153PM, CT, Longview was reporting a temperature of 72 degrees with overcast skies. There was a big swath of overcast across the Big Piney Woods, thanks largely to dew points that lingered in the low to mid 60s. Visible satellite showed that this thicket of clouds was at the tail end of a cold front extending from the coastal Carolinas, and the vector analysis in the region suggested a weak area of low pressure east of Dallas.
High pressure is moving into the region, however, both at the surface and aloft, which will prevent any further convective development. Moisture off the Gulf will be pulled towards eastward, towards Louisiana, as most synoptic activity will be in eastern Canada or off the Eastern Seaboard. Expect temperatures to be much warmer than average.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 83, Low 62
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 84, Low 61

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 82, Low 61
Monday – Partly cloudy skies. High 83, Low 60

AW: Tomorrow – Periods of clouds and sunshine with a shower in spots High 84, Low 62
Monday – Partly sunny and very warm High 84, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 83, Low 62
Monday – Sunny High 85, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. High 80, Low 62
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 62

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 82, Low 63
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 59

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy until afternoon. High 84, Low 62
Monday – Clear throughout the day. High 82, Low 61

Boy, that’s a comfortable forecast, exactly the kind of weather I want in my life. It’s stuck in Texas for now, though. Here is a look at the satellite, with clouds settling in right on top of Longview.

A good day all around in Wichita

The weather of the past two days in Wichita was magnificent, with temperatures climbing up into the upper 70s, warmer even than the most optimistic forecasting outlets. Significantly warmer, actually. Additionally, the Wichita State Shockers, a 10 seed, ended up defeating the Dayton Flyers in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Not bad at all. On top of that, everyone could go outside for their St. Patrick’s Day parade! The Weather Channel enjoyed the top forecast of the day.
Actuals: Thursday – High 76, Low 38
Friday – High 78, Low 50

Grade: B-D

Sunday promises a temperature bump

The pattern this weekend is going to be at the same time unchanged and quite progressive. We will continue to have a ridge out west and the same broad trough that has lingered out east in the wake of this week’s storm. Those aren’t going anywhere, but will instead be strengthened. Instead of focussing on the bad news, let’s look at what I find to be good news. It’s going to warm up in the Plains!

Take a look at the surface forecast, in which we can see a thermal ridge, represented by the arcing red lines, representing thickness, through the Plains and Mississippi Valley.

So the access of the warmest layers run from Nebraska to northern Minnesota. The warmer temperatures will be a little further to the west, as they will be boosted by westerly flow off the higher terrain.

Highs in the 80s into Nebraska, and the 70s in South Dakota. That’s not bad!

A toasty spring is on its way

The Climate Prediction Center has released their outlook for spring 2017, and it is a warm one.

At least half of the country has a better than 50/50 shot of being warmer than normal between the months of April and May. From the CPC press release on their outlook:

For April through June, above-average temperatures are favored for a large area stretching from the Southwest eastward to include the central and southern Plains, Great Lakes, Southeast and Northeast. Most of Alaska and Hawaii are also favored to see above-average temperatures. The greatest odds for above-normal temperatures include the south central Plains and eastern U.S. No areas in the U.S. are favored to see below-average temperatures this spring.

Warmer springs generally mean stormier springs. Looks like we are in for some interesting times next month!

Wichita, Kansas

It’s NCAA tournament time, which means all of our forecasts will make us think about the basketball teams in the area for a while. Well, Wichita is home to Wichita State (duh), a 10 seed and one of the popular sleepers in this year’s tournament. Will the weather be kind while residents are watching their local team?

At 753PM, CT, Wichita was reporting a temperature of 46 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A ridge was advancing eastward from the Front Range, and promised a significant warm up across the region. A light southerly wind was only going to get stronger as tomorrow projects as a much warmer day.
There is a broad, weak trough embedded within the apex of the larger scale ridge, and this feature will generate a weak surface feature in the Canadian Prairies. Return flow into the wave will induce some extra cloudiness tomorrow evening. The upper level trough will strengthen and reinforce the trough that presently exists east of the Mississippi. As the trough develops aloft, the feature at the surface will also  deepen, with a cold front developing through the Ozarks. Fortunately, it will be late enough in the day and without any real upper level support, so the cool down in Wichita will be minimal, despite being behind the front, and the threat for precipitation is low enough that I will be leaving it out of the forecast.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 67, Low 40
Friday – Overcast, with a cool down late.69, Low 49

TWC: Tomorrow – Wind increasing. A few clouds from time to time. High 73, Low 38
Friday – Partly cloudy. High 72, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy and warmer with some sunshine giving way to clouds High 72, Low 40
Friday – Mostly cloudy High 72, Low 50

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 73, Low 40
Friday – Partly sunny, High 70, Low 51

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, warmer. High 71, Low 39
Friday – Mostly sunny, HIgh 69, Low 50

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 73, Low 39
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 70, Low 52

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy until evening.High 72, Low 37
Friday – Partly cloudy until evening.High 68, Low 48.

Here is a surface analysis I drew for the region earlier. High pressure out east, with a weak perturbation in the Rockies. Warm air is moving into the region.

Megalopolis spared, inland pounded

Now that the storm has moved off into Maine, let’s take a look at the totals across the Mid Atlantic and New England. Look how high those totals get when you get just a little bit inland, and especially when you reach the higher terrain. There were parts of interior New York that saw over 40 inches of snow. That’s more than 3 feet!

It will be chilly for several days, delaying the melt, but there shouldn’t be any new significant accumulations during that time. Some good news!

Winning weather

I think the weather this past weekend in Fresno could be labelled as perfect by most opinion havers. The only issue is that there was no rain in an area that is still in drought. Of course, there has been SOME rain this winter, and who wants to make up their rain deficits in one continuous shot? The sunny Fresno weather led to some very good forecasts across the board, with Accuweater able to claim a victory slightly better than the competition.
Actuals: Saturday – High 75, Low 49
Sunday – High 76, Low 51

Grade: A-C

Positive early indications in NYC

This is the current radar from the Philadelphia area. As is easily discernable, the precipitation is heaviest from New York City to the western suburbs of Philadelphia. The temperatures in both places are just above freezing. New York City is reporting sleet at this time, and southern New Jersey and eastern Long Island is reporting all rain.

Indeed, we have another bust on our hands, at least for the larger cities of the Mid-Atlantic. There is still a significant snowfall in progress for Connecticut and north of the Big Apple through the Hudson Valley.

The low jogged a bit to the west and warm air pumped into Long Island and approached too closely to the coast. This is a strong storm, and it has done a very good job of wrapping warm air in with the moisture. These big systems have a relatively thin area where the maximum accumulation of snow will fall. The dire predictions of two feet of snow will fall, but not in the major metropolitan areas that typically attract the headlines.

This is another tough blow to the integrity of meteorologists, who have struggled with the accuracy of large events of late. It’s even more dangerous, because this winter, the peril of storms has been overstated, and one worries that at some point, the public will switch off to the warnings of additional looming threats.

Terre Haute, Indiana

All the talk today is going to be on the Northeast and New England states, as a powerful winter storm takes aim. Will it be the snowiest Pi Day in history for them? Probably. But alas, we’re focused on Indiana today! Let’s see how the Midwest is faring.

At 1153pm EDT, the temperature at Terre Haute, IN was 30 degrees under overcast skies. Snowfall from earlier today has pushed off to the east mostly, getting ready to cripple the Northeast. There could be a couple lingering snow showers in the area early this morning, but conditions will settle down throughout the day as high pressure begins to build in over the Midwest. Wednesday looks to clear out as high pressure settles overhead, with sunny skies and temperatures a lil bit warmer perhaps. Wednesday morning will be chilly with the clear skies, but a lot nicer than the last couple days have been!

Tuesday: Isolated snow shower possible, otherwise cloudy. High 31, Low 22.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 35, Low 18.

TWC: Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, slight chance of snow shower. High 33, Low 23.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 35, Low 17.

AW: Tuesday: Cloudy with a snow shower; breezy. High 33, Low 24.
Wednesday: Partly sunny and cold. High 35, Low 17.

NWS: Tuesday: Chance of snow showers. High 34, Low 24.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 35, Low 17.

WB: Tuesday: Chance of snow showers. High 32, Low 19
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 33, Low 18.

WN: Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with chance of light snow showers. High 34, Low 21.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 36, Low 18.

FIO: Tuesday: Mostly cloudy until evening. High 35, Low 21.
Wednesday: Clear throughout the day. High 38, Low 20.

Some higher clouds associated with tomorrow’s Northeast blizzard are shifting out of the Ohio Valley, while additional clouds stream in from the west. A deck of low clouds is found over IL/IN this evening, but is expected to clear out for Wednesday.

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