Manchester, New Hampshire

It’s been pretty warm in New England this autumn, so we aren’t ready to consider fall colors quite yet. Soon, though, and a trip to Manchester would be a good getaway from Boston regardless. How will that getaway look then?

At 1053AM, ET, Manchester was reporting overcast skies with a temperature of 52 degrees. High pressure sits over New England in a broad sense, but at the surface moisture was straming to a trough over the central Plains, and a vorticity maximum over New York and evident on satellite loops, embedded in the flow is slowing the clearing for New Hampshire and the rest of New England.

The trough in the central Plains will be slow to organize into a typical cyclonic structure, and through Tuesday and early on Wednesday, expect the skies to clear up considerably. A warm front will organize over northern New England by late in the day on Wednesday, however, and some increased overcast will occur by that time. The rapid intensification of Hurricane Michael in the Caribbean  will impact the amount of moisture available in New Hampshire, and for that reason, rain is being left out of the forecast on Wednesday.

Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, increasing sunlight, High 76, Low 53

Wednesday – Increasing clouds late, High 78, Low 67

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. Warmer.High 78, lpw 52

Wednesday – High 82, Low 64

AW:: Tomorrow – More humid; cloudy, then clouds and sunshine High 77, Low 54

Wednesday – Partial sunshine; very warm High 81, Low 66

NWS: tomorrow – Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy,  High 79, Low 53

Wednesday -Mostly sunny High 79, Low 64

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 77, Low 62

Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 77, low 64

WN: Tomorrow – partly cloudy, High 78, low 52

Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 79, low 63

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy until afternoon. High 76, Low 54

Wednesday – Partly cloudy starting overnight. High 79, low 64

A nice warm up coming to New Hampshire as that trough in the west takes shape and our vort max in New York goes away. One last taste of summer, it seems.

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES-16 ABI BAND 01 OR_ABI-L1b-RadC-M3C01_G16_s20182811502201_e20182811504574_c20182811505018.nc

Fuzzy Forecast

There was a big broad trough across the northern part of the US as September rolled into October. The trough brought cloud, cold temperatures and a lot of uncertainty, particularly in the Eastern Great Lakes. There wasn’t much rain with the feature, so it was tough to really put it in the forecast, and as a result, everyone who did put rain in the forecast for Utica had it on the wrong day. There was a only a trace of rain on Sunday the 30th, when it seemed like rain would be more likely on Saturday morning when the surface activity was more intense. Victoria Weather was more optimistic about the rain threat, and we had a top forecast for this amorphous blob of weather. 
Actuals: Saturday the 29th – High 63, Low 44
Sunday – Rain reported, not measured, High 61, Low 39

Grade: C-D

Florence, Alabama

Today we’re visiting Alabama for the second straight day! We’re gonna stay in the far northern part of the state though today, let’s see how the weekend is shaping up!

At 853pm CDT, the temperature at Florence, AL was 75 degrees under fair skies. High pressure is nosing it’s way over the Deep South currently, and with a front draped across the Central US, there really isn’t much synoptically going on in N AL. Some airmass thunderstorms look to pop up tomorrow afternoon but looks like they’ll stay off to the north before conditions settle down for the late evening. More of the same is anticipated for Sunday, but there’s a slightly better chance at some isolated activity sneaking its way into the Florence area. No washouts are expected, but keep a wary eye on the afternoon sky in case you have some outdoor plans.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 89, Low 67.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, some isolated afternoon showers possible. High 90, Low 65.

TWC: Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 91, Low 69.
Sunday: Afternoon thunderstorms. High 90, Low 68.

AW: Saturday: Mostly sunny; warm and humid. High 91, Low 68.
Sunday: Mostly sunny; warm and humid. High 90, Low 66.

NWS: Saturday: Patchy fog then partly sunny. High 91, Low 68.
Sunday: Mostly sunny then slight chance of showers. High 90, Low 67.

WB: Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 90, Low 69.
Sunday: Partly cloudy. High 90, Low 69.

WN: Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 91, Low 68.
Sunday: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. High 90, Low 67.

FIO: Saturday: Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. High 88, Low 67.
Sunday: Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. High 88, Low 65.

Once again, it’s super quiet tonight around the TN Valley, while the Midwest and Plains remain active along a slow-moving cold front.

Elkhart, Indiana to Tuscaloosa, Alabama

Today’s road trip will be just under 700-miles and take 2 days to cover, as we venture from N Indiana to the heart of Alabama

DAY ONE

A stationary front is sitting over Northern Indiana, keeping chances of rain in the area as we depart southward in the morning. Conditions should improve as we pass Indianapolis, with drier conditions expected over the southern half of the state but cloudy skies remain. We’ll be fine as we pass by Louisville but additional showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon as we continue southward through Kentucky. Chances for inclement weather continues into the evening as we make way for Nashville, our stop for the night.

DAY TWO

Chances for some morning showers are possible in the Nashville area as we continue our southward trek. Conditions should improve by the time we make it to Alabama, but a few spotty early afternoon thundershowers are possible as we make our way past Birmingham and eventually into Tuscaloosa.

Tuscaloosa, Alabama

Today we take a look at what the weather will be like in Tuscaloosa, home of one of the best college football programs of the last decade. Will the weekend be nice for the Crimson Tide?

At 1053pm CDT, the temperature at Tuscaloosa, AL was 74 degrees under fair skies. Weak high pressure is found over much of the Southeast US/Deep South as a storm system shuffles through the Upper Midwest and the Plains. Some afternoon shower/thunderstorm activity could develop over the TN Valley Friday afternoon, but activity should stay off to the north before it dissipates in the evening. Saturday looks to be quiet once again over the region with shower activity shunting off a bit further north to the OH Valley. Looks like a couple of enjoyable days!

Friday: Increasing clouds in afternoon then clears overnight. High 89, Low 71.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 90, Low 68.

TWC: Friday: Partly cloudy, isolated shower possible. High 92, Low 71.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 92, Low 69.

AW: Friday: Mostly sunny; warm and humid. High 91, Low 70.
Saturday: Partly sunny; hot, humid. High 91, Low 68.

NWS: Friday: Patchy fog then mostly sunny. High 91, Low 71.
Saturday: Sunny. High 92, Low 70.

WB: Friday: Partly cloudy. High 91, Low 71.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 91, Low 71.

WN: Friday: Partly cloudy. High 91, Low 71.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 92, Low 70.

FIO: Friday: Clear throughout the day. High 90, Low 69.
Saturday: Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. High 89, Low 69.

The Southeast is extremely quiet this evening, with just some thunderstorms waaaaay out over the Gulf of Mexico. Quiet weather looks to be in store for much of the weekend!

Stormy In Massachusetts

As expected, afternoon rain and thunderstorms moved into the Pittsfield area associated with a cold front. Some light rains lingered after midnight, but cleared out by morning and temperatures warmed into the 60s. Overcast skies and the midday rains kept the temperatures down for Tuesday, which was the bulk of the error in temperatures during this forecast. Weatherbug narrowly edged out V-W for the win by a single point.

Tuesday: Rain in afternoon hours. High 59, Low 53.
Wednesday: Early morning rain shower. High 64, Low 51.
Forecast Grade: B-

Coming Soon

We’re digging into October now, and the forecasts are about to get a lot more wintry. What fall foliage locations might we pass through on this forecast adventure?

Portland, Maine

Road Trip from Portland to Reno, Nevada

St. Cloud, Minnesota

Odessa, Texas

Riverside, California

Rosa targeting drought stricken southwest.

One of, if not the most drought addled parts of the country is the 4 Corners territory. The nexus of those four states is a bullseye on the CPC drought monitor for being the most in need of rain and cooler temperatures. Fortunately, Rosa is on her way. The next month forecasts to be a very wet one for most of the country, which is good news for the western US, and the remnants of Rosa, which is tracking over the Arizona as we speak, is only a start, though a very robust start. The heaviest rain will fall in northern Arizona, but Phoenix has already seen over 3” of rain, which doesn’t sound like much, but could be overwhelming to that arid landscape.

Rosa also has brought severe storms to northwestern Arizona. The population in the Mojave is spread thin, however the downpours caused by severe storms can fill arroyos and become extremely dangerous. The aftermath can be quite beautiful, and fresh rains will hopefully suspend significant fire threats for the time being.

The heavy rain will relent later in the week as Rosa winds down with more speed than tropical features in the eastern US (thanks to the Rocky Mountains), but the disruption to the flow aloft will change course for the precipitation pattern across the country.

Pittsfield, Massachusetts

Today we head to far western Massachusetts, home of the Berkshires! Let’s see what the next couple days have in store for some foliage viewing!

At 1054pm EDT, the temperature in Pittsfield, MA was 54 degrees under overcast skies. An area of low pressure is shifting through the Eastern Great Lakes and trailing a cold front down into the Ohio Valley. This low pressure is expected to shift through the Northeast and New England throughout the day Tuesday, bringing periods of moderate to heavy rains to western MA. Shower activity should trail off during the overnight hours and with high pressure building over the area Wednesday, a fairly decent day looks to be in store!

Tuesday: All-day rain chances, better chance of afternoon thunderstorms. High 68, Low 52.
Wednesday: Showers trailing off shortly after midnight. Clouds clear out by afternoon. High 65, Low 51.

TWC :Tuesday: Afternoon thunderstorms. High 67, Low 53.
Wednesday: Cloudy. High 64, Low 57.

AW: Tuesday: A little rain. High 66, Low 54.
Wednesday: Clouds and sun; pleasant. High 66, Low 59.

NWS: Tuesday: Chances of showers early, then heavier afternoon rains. High 65, Low 52.
Wednesday: Isolated early morning showers, then partly sunny. High 67, Low 58.

WB: Tuesday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 65, Low 53.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. High 63, Low 52.

WN: Tuesday: Cloudy with light showers. High 65, Low 50.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 67, Low 57.

FIO: Tuesday: Rain starting in the afternoon. High 70, Low 53.
Wednesday: Rain overnight. High 66, Low 52.

Rain showers are shifting through the region, with heavier ones on the way moving in midday.

Santa Barbara, California to Lancaster, Pennsylvania

We embark on a week-long, 2,738 mile, cross-country road trip, right as weather gets busy in the Southwest. Juuuust peachy.

DAY ONE

We get an early start on the day as we’re playing a race of sorts on Monday. Tropical Storm Rosa is heading towards Baja California and looks to impact the Desert Southwest over the next couple of days. Rain streaming ahead of the storm is already impacting Arizona. Quiet weather is expected for our departure out of Santa Barbara towards Los Angeles, and continues as we head north on I-15 into the Mojave Desert. We head eastward on I-40 and will be following this interstate for quite a while and we’ll start to see some scattered shower activity in the afternoon as we cross over into Arizona. As the evening progresses, we’ll see an increase in shower activity and perhaps some embedded thunderstorms as we make our way to Flagstaff, our stop after the long day.

DAY TWO

The remnants of Rosa are shifting into Arizona this morning, so our start out of Flagstaff will be off to a slow start. On the plus side, the lions share of the heavy rains are getting caught up in the mountains to the south. However, it will still be a messy start to the day as we head out of Flagstaff towards Gallup, NM. The further east we go, the more the weather improves as the rain mostly heads northward into Utah. By the time we reach Albuquerque, the rain should have come to an end. The rest of the afternoon and evening should be fairly quiet as we end the day in Tucumcari, NM.

DAY THREE

Today should be a fairly easy day overall! Low pressure intensifying over the Northern Plains will cause much angst to those from Montana to Minnesota, but with a nose of high pressure extending into the Southern Plains, it should be enough to keep the rain chances away. We could probably see some increased southerly winds during the afternoon as southerly flow feeds the low pressure off north. We cruise on by Oklahoma City in the afternoon and settle in Tulsa for the night.

DAY FOUR

As low pressure continues to explosively develop and shifts into Canada, the cold front trailing this system is dropping into the Mid-MS River Valley and Central Plains. We still expect dry weather as we head out of Tulsa northeastward on I-44, but as we head past Springfield, MO and head further into Missouri, we’ll get closer to encountering showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms along the front. It looks like the activity will hold off to the north of our route long enough to make it to St. Louis, but the threat will remain for the rest of the evening as we head into Effingham, IL for the night.

DAY FIVE

Today will be an abbreviated day of sorts, as we’re only traveling 350 miles to Columbus, OH. But as a new area of low pressure begins to intensity over the Midwest, scattered shower activity looks to develop over the OH Valley throughout the morning. Heavier activity will remain off to the north of our route, but don’t be surprised if we see a stray thunderstorm over OH before we read our destination for the day.

DAY SIX

A cold front will be hot on our heels today as we continue eastward on I-70 then get onto I-76, which will take us the rest of the way. We could see some morning shower activity, but dry weather is expected for much of the day. An approaching cold front will continue to trail us, bringing showers and thunderstorms to OH and NW PA, but luckily it’ll be just slow enough so our final push into Lancaster should be largely an easy task. We’ve made it!

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