Jackson, Michigan

This weekend has brought on the first real heat wave of the winter, which is a little earlier than we usually see this kind of heat. How long will it last?

At 156AM, ET, Jackson was reporting a temperature of 74 degrees with clear skies. The warm temperatures even at this late hour are a result of brisk southerly flow generated by a distended area of low pressure in the Dakotas. Temperatures tomorrow will respond in kind, with 90s highly likely.
The flow is generally from the southwest with this storm, so the airmass in lower Michigan remains relatively dry. With little by way of instability, it will take a trigger to touch off thunderstorms in Michigan, despite the heat. A warm front will be the primary focus for storms, with a derecho tearing through Minnesota and Wisconsin, headed towards northern Michigan tomorrow. A cold front will begin to drift south on Monday, but there will be no upper level support for cooler air to drive southward. Even more significantly for the threat of rain, disturbed weather in the eastern Gulf will mean that the southerly flow into the front will not be laden with moisture. Hot, dry weather is going to continue for at least the next two days.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, hot, High  87, Low 68
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 91, Low 67

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies High 88, Low 66
Monday – Generally sunny. Near record high temperatures. High 92, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, breezy and very warm High 89, Low 66
Monday – Sunny, breezy and hot with the temperature approaching the record of 95 set in 1933 High 93, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 90, Low 66
Monday – Sunny and hot, High 92, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 88, Low 67
Monday – Sunny, High 92, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, Higj 90, Low 70
Monday – Mostly sunny High 91. Low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 91, Low 69
Monday – Clear throughout the day. High 92, Low 69

So, that heat is going to linger for a while. Satellite is showing a lot of sun in the center of the country. Well, moon, at this time of night. That cluster of storms in South Dakota will be a doozy later, but southern Michigan is going to be just fine.

When Perfection Finishes Second

Outside of maaaaybe a shot of a rain shower in Philly, the weather seemed to be pretty good for midweek. That slight chance of a shower though was enough to alter the standings. Even though the NWS had a PERFECT temperature forecast (hooray!), their chances of showers on both days was enough to bring them down to 2nd place, as WN won with their dry forecast.

Wednesday: High 67, Low 54.
Thursday: High 72, Low 54.
Forecast Grade: A

Workplace productivity on the rise

The worst thing about summer is that it’s really hard to stay at the office, working. The sun is out, the kids are out of school and your entire body screams for the outdoors. I am happy to report that this week in New Haven, that was not the case! It was cool and cloudy as a dual low passed off the coast and through New England. The good news was, it wasn’t as rainy as forecasts had envisioned, but it was just as miserable. Great days to be at work. Your boss savored it, I’m sure.
Tuesday – .02 inches in rain, High 55, Low 51
Wednedsay – High 69, Low 50

Grade: B-C

Terre Haute, Indiana to New Orleans, Louisiana

If you stuck around after our initial forecast, you will know that the weather in New Orleans for the next day and a half of this drive will be in excellent shape, but what about the 783 miles in between? We’ll cover that mileage at a pace of 68.5,mph, at which pace we will cover 548 miles on Thursday’s drive.

 
DAY ONE (Thursday)

Indeed, warm weather and sunny skies have come to the Mississippi Valley after a long stretch of busy weather in the area. Don’t be surprised to see a lot of people just outside and enjoying it at any stop that is made. Maybe have lunch by the river in Memphis. It’s going to be nice day, is what I’m saying. We’ll make it to Mississippi and the town of Richland, which is about 75 miles northeast of Jackson.

DAY TWO (Friday)
Like I said in the intro, New Orleans is going to be very nice to drive through. So too, will Jackson and all parts in between. It will even be tolerably cool. Not quite to the dog days yet, but they are coming soon.

New Orleans, Louisiana

The Big Easy… Let’s go find out if the weather will be easy to forecast. – Most obvious intro pun possible.

At 953PM, CT, New Orleans was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with clear skies. After a rough weekend, a boundary has swept through the area, providing New Orleans with northerly flow, importing drier, stable air to the city. High pressure in the center of the country is inhibiting convective development across the center of the country.
The trough that brought the boundary through the region is shortwaved, but the high pressure in place behind it is broad and strong. There might be a few isolated showers or storms floating around the south end of the high pressure feature, but that will mean only some thunder around Corpus Christi. The next real threat for significant weather in the Big Easy will be with a few isolated storms over the weekend.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 71
Friday – Sun High 85, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies High 85, Low 69
Friday – Sunshine – High 85, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Sunshine High 85, Low 70
Friday – Sunny to partly cloudy and pleasant High 85, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 85, Low 70
Friday – Sunny, High 85, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 83, Low 69
Friday – Sunny, High 83, Low 69

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 70
Friday – Sunny, High 84, Low 72

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 87, Low 72
Friday – Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. High 85, Low 73

This is incredible weather for New Orleans  for this time of year. Not too hot and dry.

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

We head off to the City of Brotherly Love today, and let’s see if the weather is just as lovely!

At 1154pm EDT, the temperature in Philadelphia, PA was 57 degrees under overcast skies. There’s an area of high pressure at the surface found over the Great Lakes that’s slowly pushing its way eastward. However, there’s a mid-level disturbance that continues to linger over Southern New England and is dropping southward throughout Wednesday. While some isolated showers are found in the area, they’re dropping southward currently and not expected to affect the city. There could be some morning to midday showers tomorrow over the mountains off to the west while overcast skies continue to linger over Philly. The system should clear out some for Thursday, leading to warmer temperatures, but mostly cloudy skies are still in the cards. It’ll be a few days until a decent system is expected to bring showers to the region, so looks like an enjoyable weekend is on the horizon!

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. High 69, Low 54.
Thursday: Warmer, remaining mostly cloudy. High 75, Low 55.

TWC: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, few morning showers. High 68, Low 53.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 75, Low 53.

AW: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, a shower; cool. High 63, Low 54.
Thursday: Clouds giving way to sun. High 69, Low 52.

NWS: Wednesday: Isolated early morning showers, mostly cloudy. High 67, Low 54.
Thursday: Slight chance of showers. High 72, Low 54.

WB: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. High 65, Low 52.
Thursday: Partly sunny. High 69, Low 53.

WN: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. High 66, Low 54.
Thursday: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. High 72, Low 54.

FIO: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy until night. High 71, Low 54.
Thursday: Partly cloudy starting in the morning, continuing until night. High 76, Low 52.

There’s a few light showers off to the southwest and dwindling as we head through the overnight hours. More dry weather is in store for the area today!

New Haven, Connecticut

All right, I think this is going to be a fun forecast. All the enjoyment of a mid-Atlantic forecast with none of the pressure of forecasting for New York!

At 1253PM, ET, New Haven was reporting overcast skies with a temperature of 61 degrees. The region was smothered in clouds as an area of low pressure lurked off the Delmarva Peninsula. To the southwest, a broad swath of rain was moving through central New Jersey, bearing down on New York City, while where skies had cleared, and an advancing upper level trough was sinking into the region, isolated thunderstorms were popping up east of Scranton in Pennsylvania. Both the surface low and the thunderstorm activity are interconnected, and both are advancing on New Haven.
The surface system will bring some light rain, potentially, to the area, but the bulk of it will continue to slide south of Long Island. The upper low producing thunderstorms in the eastern Great Lakes will be robbed of its instability, but rain will continue to barrel southeast towards Connecticut. The stratiform rain will be a persistent threat through the day Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. Fortunately, the wave is shortwaved enough to be progressive, and will clear out for a pleasant Wednesday afternoon.
Tomorrow – Rain intermittently throughout the day, cloudy HIgh 55, Low 47
Wednesday – Rain in the morning, then clearing and much nicer, High 65, Low 47

TWC: Tomorrow – Thunderstorms in the morning will give way to steady rain in the afternoon. High 57, Low 51
Wednesday – Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 67, Low 50

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy and cooler with spotty showers High 59, Low 51
Wednesday – A stray morning shower; otherwise, cool with clouds breaking for some sun High 62, Low 50

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy drizzle and fog with a chance of showers. Cloudy, HIgh 58, Low 52
Wednesday – A 50 percent chance of showers or drizzle. Cloudy HIgh 61, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a chance of showers with a patch of drizzle, High 55, Low 48
Wednesday – Cloudy with a chance of showers and drizzle, High 62, Low 48

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with chance of light showers, High 57, Low 52
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers High 61, Low 50

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain until evening. High 58, Low 51
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy until afternoon.High 70, Low 51

That’s an unfortunate forecast. You shouldn’t be burdened with high temperatures in the 50s in June. Here is the radar, with all that rain to the south of Long Island, and a pop up storm in Pennsylvania

Home Court

We had a forecast for Minneapolis towards the end of the week last week. This was good, it seems like we get way more forecasts for State College than anywhere else, meaning Accuweather gets to forecast for their home turf, and the rest of us are always looking at locations well away from our homeland. Victoria-Weather wasn’t going to let anyone beat us at home, and indeed, we played up our Minnesota pessimism and earned a victory by having the coolest temperatures of any major outlet. There were 90 degree temperatures in parts of the Twin Cities, but not at Crystal Airport, which is closest to Minneapolis’ City limits. Not to toot our own horn, but we were actually going to leave the threat of rain out of the forecast on Friday, which would only have led to a greater victory. We won regardless (tied with the other locals, the Weather Service), so I guess I can let it go.
Actuals: Friday – High 89, Low 48
Saturday -Thunderstorms reported, not measured, High 87, Low 66

Grade: B-C

May Forecaster of the Month

It felt like my forecasting presence was limited this month, but we actually had 12 forecasts for the Month of May. That is a pretty solid month’s work, so there is no doubt that our forecaster of the month earned their title, especially given how dominant they were. Accuweather crushed everyone on their way to the crown for he month of May, and secured a tie with Victoria-Weather for the annual total.

Napa nicer, wetter

Wine country would have been a good place to be for a visit as May departed and June arrived. Save for a spot of light rain in Napa on Wednesday Morning, skies were sunny and temperatures reached the warmer estimations of forecasters in the region. The Weather Channel, who did not break the cardinal sin of missing out on light rain in California ended up securing an easy victory. If only there was a beverage to toast them with.
Actuals: Wednesday – Trace of light rain, High 79, Low 54
Thursday – High 81, Low 48

Grade: B-D

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