Perfect August weather

We took a look at the coming weather for Ann Arbor late last week, and it really worked out great for residents of southern Michigan (so too for meteorologists if I’m being honest.) Temperatures were manageable, especially on Friday after a weak cold front sneaked through Thursday night. There was a little bit of precipitation with the passage of the cold front, and temperatures went from the mid to low 80s for highs, while lows dipped to the low 60s. The best news was that meteorologists essentially nailed the forecast. The National Weather Service, who won the day, missed only by 1 degree of error.
Actuals: Thursday .10 inches of rain, High 85, Low 60
Friday – High 82, Low 64

Grade: A=C

July Forecaster of the Month

I think this might be the first time this has happened, but I haven’t been able to verify it quite yet. I think this might be the first time we’ve had WeatherNation step up and have the top record for an entire month of the year, but alas, they claimed the July crown, putting aside an affinity for the NWS forecast and a series of technical issues and display shortcomings. Congratulations, Weathernation, you’ve earned it.

Weather Wayback… Aiming to impress

Back in Mid-November last year, Anthony remarked upon his knowing someone that lived in our forecast city, Wheeling, West Virginia. He wanted to make sure that he would give a good impression by nailing this forecast. Close, I guess. It was a challenging forecast all around, so nobody had a perfect forecast, but Forecast.io  came through with the top forecast by going warm on the 16th, but more importantly, staying cool on the 17th. Was Anthony’s friend impressed? Maybe, but this wasn’t necessarily our best shhowing.
Actuals: November 16th – Trace of rain, High 47, Low 36
November 17th, High 44, Low 35

Grade: B-D

Ann Arbor, Michigan to Tulsa, Oklahoma

Michigan to Oklahoma doesn’t seem quite as long a journey as some of our treks have been, but this will still cost us a day and a half to navigate the heart of the Mississippi Valley. We have 902 miles to cover, which we will do at a pace of 68mph, despite a slog through Chicago. We will thus cover 545 miles of our journey on Saturday, leaving that last meat on the bone for Sunday.

DAY ONE (Saturday)

An area of low pressure in the Mid-Atlantic is bringing all sorts of showers and embedded thunderstorms from the Upper Ohio Valley east towards southern New England. Of course, this is south of our route, but the circulation associated with this feature will sneak a bit of moisture back over the Great Lakes. A small perturbation over southern Lake Michigan will kick up a few clouds and maybe a stray shower in the Chicago region in the afternoon. We will likely make it through there by the time showers pick up, but surely, there will be some mostly cloudy skies in the Land of Lincoln regardless of whether or not we see sprinkles. Our Saturday drive will take us to Gray Summitt, Missouri, just west of St. Louis.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
An upper level trough over the southern Plains is going to churn up some southerly flow, destabilizing the atmosphere across Oklahoma. Storms will probably be erupting fairly early in the afternoon, anywhere over our last couple of hours of driving, between Springfield and Tulsa. Most of it will be rain, but don’t be surprised by an embedded thunderstorm, either.

Tulsa, Oklahoma

I think the thing most people think about when they hear “Oklahoma” and “weather” is tornadoes. Sure, Oklahoma gets a lot of twisters, but they also endure freezing rain like I can barely believe in the winter. In the summer, though it’s all about the heat.

At 953AM, CT, it was already 85 degrees under the sun in Tulsa. Dew points were in the low 70s across the region, but mostly cloudy skies were providing temporary shade. The tail of a cold front associated with low pressure in the Canadian Maritimes was touching of showers and storms even at this hour over north Texas, which will sap the convective energy in Oklahoma. In fact, there is an inversion across Oklahoma with subsiding post frontal air trapping all manner of smoke and haze in the Tulsa area.
A sharply angled trough will become cutoff and orphan an area of circulation over the southern Rockies through the weekend. This will generate a a bit more southeasterly flow across the southern Plains. This sounds like bad news, but actually, it will pump more moisture into the region, destabilizing the region. Storms will be isolated Saturday, but by Sunday afternoon, expect the area to be rife with shower and thunderstorm activity.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 94, Low 72
Sunday – Scattered showers and storms around, with some isolated showers, High 88, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow =- Partly cloudy High 91, Low 72
Sunday – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning becoming more widespread in the afternoon. High 88, Low 72

AW: Tomorrow – Partial sunshine; air quality will be unhealthy for sensitive groups High 92, Low 71
Sunday – Cloudy, a couple of showers and a thunderstorm High 87, Low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 71
Sunday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny High 87, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 90, Low 71
Sunday – Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 83, Low 71

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms High 92, Low 71
Sunday – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 86, Low 71

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day.High 95, Low 71
Sunday – Light rain in the evening.High 91, Low 71

A look at the satellite shows some activity across Texas. This is what we will expect in the next few days for eastern Oklahoma as well.

Surpassing expectations

A couple of rainy days came and went in the Akron area during the middle of the week. They were the generic kind, not the kind that make news headlines because of their persistence or severity. Just your average, regular old thunderstorms. If there was anything noteworthy, particularly among the meteorology crowd, it was that temperatures still nudged up close to 90 on Tuesday, and were above the forecast highs on Wednesday as well.  Accuweather claimed the top forecast for the day.
Actuals: Tuesday – .17″ of rain in thunderstorms, High 88, Low 70
Wednesday – .01″ of rain, High 86, Low 71

Grade: B-C

Ann Arbor, Michigan

Just a couple of days after our forecast for Akron, we are moving jut to the northeast. Will the forecast be terribly different, or are we headed for a similar day in the home city of the University of Michigan?

At 1051AM, ET, Ann Arbor was reporting a temperature of 89 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. Lower cloud decks were being seen across lower Michigan, A weak upper level trough is moving swiftly out of he Great Lakes, and a surface trough over the Eastern Lakes. This surface feature is producing the dreary skies in Michigan, but thanks to the wavelength of the upper trough, it will shift quickly away from the area and Ann Arbor will be in the sun by late evening.

A part of this upper level trough is producing a more organized area of low pressure in eastern Hudson Bay, which is trailing a cold front into Lake Superior. This boundary will mean a return of rain and isolated thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening. This boundary will be the last gasp, however, with high pressure inserting itself into the area, providing a nice day on Friday.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, scattered storms in the afternoon, High 85, Low 59
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 81, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies during the morning hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. High 85, Low 60
Friday – A few clouds early, otherwise mostly sunny. High 83, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Times of sun and clouds, a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 85, Low 59
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sun; humid High 82, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 61
Friday – Partly sunny High 82, Low 64

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. A 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 84, Low 61
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 78, Low 64

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 85, Low 61
Friday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 83, Low 64

FIO Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening.High 82, Low 59
Friday Partly cloudy starting in the morning.High 79, Low 61:

Check out the satellite below. Sure, there are a few clouds to concern ourselves with today in Ann Arbor, but the real story during the forecast period will be that splotch over Lake Superior.

Weather Wayback… The end of Hurricane season

Here we sit, approaching the busiest time of year in the Atlantic hurricane season, and we are going to turn back to look at the end of last year’s season on the Atlantic Coast of Florida.  Palm Bay in mid-November was at the tail end of what had been a tortuous Atlantic Season, but they were enjoying extremely pleasant weather, with only a few scattered showers and storms thanks to sea breezes. Not only was the hurricane threat nearly gone, but the weather was downright comfortable, probably for the first time in months on the Florida Peninsula. The top forecaster was Forecast,io.
Actuals: November 14th, .01 inches of rain, High 82, Low 71
November 15th, High 81, Low 69

Grade: C

Akron, Ohio

Hello, forecast friends! We’re headed off to northeast Ohio, and the home of the Rubber Bowl and at least one very good basketball player and influential humanitarian. Akron, Ohio, let’s go!

AT 251PM, ET, Akron was reporting mostly cloudy skies and a sultry 86 degrees. A cold front sliding through the Great Lakes hasn’t quite become active, but will soon, with severe weather expected this afternoon in the Detroit and Toledo areas. Storms won’t reach Akron tonight, but the southerly flow  leading into the boundary will continue to saturate the atmosphere in northeastern Ohio this afternoon
Storms will move into Akron overnight, and will linger into the morning tomorrow, leading to what projects to be a cool, stormy day. The low associated with this boundary will drfit further north, limiting the cold air and momentum of the front. Storm activity will weaken, but will not advance through eastern Ohio. At the base of the upper level trough, a vorticity maximum will develop late tomorrow in central Illinois. It will follow the jet streak towards Ohio, and will reinvigorate thunderstorm activity for Wednesday. Showers and storms will be persistent, though severe weather isn’t going to be widespread.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and storms, High 84, Low 71
Wednesday – More showers and storms, High 80, Low 67

TWC: Tomorrow – Thunderstorms, High 84, Low 71
Wednesday – Scattered thundestorms, High 82, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – A shower and t-storm around, High 86, Low 72
Wednesday – Variable Clouds, a T-storm, High 84, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Mostly cloudy. High 86, Low 71
Wednesday – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 3pm High 81, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow – 60% Chance of storms High 82, Low 73
Wednesday – 60% chance of storms, High 78, Low 71

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms, High 85, Low 72
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms, High 82, Low 69

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain starting overnight, continuing until evening, High 84, Low 72
Wednesday – Rain in the afternoon, High 80, Low 69

The internet went out here yesterday, so I couldn’t post in a timely manne, but I pulled these forecasts from the mobile site, and grabbed an archived satellite image. I am dedicated. Here is the line of storms firing over the Great Lakes.

 

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