from Victoria-Weather
It’s getting closer and closer to the winter season, and snow showing up in our forecasts. Also, this set of forecasts may take us right up to Thanksgiving, which is an entirely different set of stressors.
Fort Smith, Arkansas
Florence, Alabama
Road Trip from Battle Creek, Michigan to Florence
Corvallis, Oregon
Lancaster, Pennsylvania
Road Trip from Corvallis to Lancaster
It’s mid-November, and temperatures are getting cooler and days are getting shorter. Certainly, both are factors in making things a little depressing. The cold keeps us inside, and the lack of daylight makes things dark, quite literally.
But even in the daylight, it can often seem more grim. When it’s sunny, that usually means it’s colder in the morning, but another huge factor is the lower Lifting Condensation Level (LCL) that comes with winter. The LCL is level at which air lifted from the surface would reach the condensation point in the atmosphere. In practice, this is the height at which the bases of clouds form.
A given “parcel” of air will see temperatures drop at a known rate with height, based on established atmospheric physics. As we know with fog and clouds, moisture can only be retained in air to a certain temperature before it condenses. This is also why we have dew in the morning – that is when temperatures are coolest, and the air can’t hold the moisture any longer.
Cold air holds less moisture, and the atmosphere is colder in at all levels in the winter. As air at the surface is generally warmer than air aloft, it is prone to rising until it meets the LCL, at which point clouds start to form. Clouds are more likely in the cooler weather because the air can’t hold moisture, and the LCL is lower because the change in temperature from the surface to the point which the air can’t bear as much water is smaller, so those clouds are going to have low bases. There will be more clouds, and they will be lower to the ground. It’s dingy and claustrophobic, even in the day time.
But at least night comes earlier. At least spring is only 6 months away.
I was talking to someone in St. Louis today, and he was lamenting how gray it has been for a couple of days now. I lamented the same to him, here in the Twin Cities. What do you know, Cedar Rapids is right between the two! To be fair, Tuesday was sunny in Cedar Rapids, and likely felt pretty OK in the sun. The sun was not to be found on Wednesday, though, replaced by clouds, afternoon rain and cooler temperatures. Forecasts for Cedar Rapids turned out pretty well, none better than Accuweather’s.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 51, Low 31
Wednesday – .11 inches of rain High 48, Low 36
Grade A-C
Midland used to be the Weather Forecast Office that I would think about when thinking of severe thunderstorms, but in recent years, that focus has certainly shifted eastward. In mid-November, though, Midland could still provide a few forecast thrills.
AT 953AM, ET, Midland was reporting a temperature of 58 degrees with clear skies. An upper level ridge is parked over the Mississippi Valley, and sitting on the western flank of this ridge is allowing west Texas to remain comfortable and dry. A weak but active boundary east of the Mississippi is pushing most of the moisture in the middle of the country well away from the Lone Star State.
The upper level ridge will only work to get broader while a sharply angled trough in the western US will begin to get stronger flow through it. This will lead to an increase in warm air for Midland, however the narrow but strong wave will have a difficult time translating eastward. The beginning of the weekend will be warm and pleasant for west Texas, if a bit breezy.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 47
Saturday – Sunny with a bit of a breeze, High 82, Low 53
TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 79, Low 47
Saturday – Partly cloudy skies. High 81, Low 56
AW: Tomorrow – Sunny, breezy and pleasant High 76, Low 47
Saturday – Mostly sunny and very warm High 80, Low 55
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 49
Saturday – Sunny, High 80, Low 56
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 47
Saturday – Sunny, High 80, Low 57
WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 50
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 80, Low 56
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 78, Low 48
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 81, low 54
Well, that is sure a pleasant forecast, isn’t it? Let’s just say it is probably good this forecast stops at Saturday. For now, the satellite is basically a picture of Texas.
After toiling in the Midwest pretty regularly of late, we are going to head out west, and the state capital of the Silver State. What’s up, Carson City?
At 1235PM, PT, Carson City was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 57 degrees. An area of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest was directing a cold front through the Sierras. There was precipitation on the western faces of the mountains, and blustery winds over the mountains and through the eastern slopes, including Carson City, where wind speeds were gusting to 30mph.
The trough off the west coast is going to remain in place for the foreseeable future, which means the low in the area is going to recycle, and flow will continue from the west into California and eventually western Nevada. The moisture won’t be robust, so it will struggle to breach the mountains until the trough itself is able to move into the Great Basin. Thursday will continue to see some patch cloudiness, but Friday will see the introduction of some light rain with a possible snowy mix into the forecast.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 50, Low 36
Friday – Chance of light showers, mixing with snow, High 45, Low 28
TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 51, Low 33
Friday – Mainly cloudy. A shower of rain or wet snow possible High 40, Low 30
AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun with a shower in places; cool High 52, low 29
Friday – Cloudy and colder High 43, Low 29
NWS: Tomorrow -A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly after 10am. Snow level 5700 feet rising to 6200 feet in the afternoon. Mostly sunny, High 53, Low 29
Friday – Snow, mainly before 4pm. High 42, Low 25
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny in the morning and then becoming partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain and snow, High 50, Low 32
Friday – Snow likely, High 41, Low 28
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 52, Low 31
Friday – Mostly cloudy with light snow, High 42, Low 28
CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 51, Low 29
Friday Heavy snow showers, High 44, low 27
That’s enough out of me, here is the scene from KOLO news in Reno.
It wasn’t well modeled in Champaign over the weekend, but perhaps it should have been more closely monitored. Temperatures after a weak cold front moved through overnight Saturday into Sunday fell off fairly quickly Sunday night. I think most of us anticipated more clouds, or simply weren’t in on guidance’s plans, so Sunday lows were too warm, across the board. Also off were the precipitation forecasts for a couple of outlets. It did continue to rain on Sunday morning, nearly a quarter inch, which Accuweather and Clime didn’t have in their forecast. This hurt Accuweather the most, as it cost them victory for the day, instead handing it to us, Victoria-Weather.
Actuals: Saturday, .43 inches of rain, High 56, Low 44
Sunday .2 inches of rain, High 67, Low 43
Grade: C-D
I don’t know what to tell you, except that the algorithm has decided to provide a bevy of eastern Iowa forecasts lately. A bevy in eastern Iowa is, of course, two.
At 352PM, CT, Cedar Rapids was reporting a temperature of 48 degrees with clear skies. A cool north-northwest wind dominated eastern Iowa, A large area of high pressure was seated at the center of the country, however unlike some of the summer ridges we’ve contended with this year, this ridge will be transient, and the upper level pattern is active.
The ridge won’t be shifting out of the region by tomorrow, with warmer flow from the south riding a bit of a breeze. The next trough coming out of the Rockies will dislodge the ridge, and bring a modestly active line of showers with a few embedded storms to Cedar Rapids on Wednesday evening. The sharp trough is tightening and directing the low through Illinois on Wednesday. Expect cooler temperatures to wait to start intruding until early Thursday as clouds and light rain continue even through midnight, while breezy accompany the passage of the low.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 52, Low 30
Wednesday – Rain and embedded thunder in the evening, High 52, Low 38
TWC: Tomorrow – Plentiful sunshine. High 51, Low 29
Wednesday – Cloudy skies with periods of rain later in the day. High 53, Low 37
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and breezy High 50, Low 31
Wednesday – Variable cloudiness with showers; breezy High 50, Low 36
NWS: Tomorrow – Increasing clouds High 48, Low 29
Wednesday – Showers, mainly after noon. High 51, Low 37
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 35
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon, High 49, Low 41
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 48, Low 29
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, with showers, High 48, Low 37
CLI: Tomorrow – Clear, High 49, Low 30
Wednesday – Rain Showers, High 51, Low 37
At some point, with a lack of clouds, it’s more of a map than a weather product, right?
Weather information receivers, the general public, expects perfection for their specific spot every time. That said, everyone had forecast for rain in the Quad Cities on Saturday. We knew in spots it would be heavy, and nearly everyone called that out. The Upper Mississippi Valley indeed saw some showers, but it was only .06″ worth of rain in Davenport, though places around there saw more. Is it a problem, then, that they didn’t see more in Davenport, when most outlets suspected it? Probably for some people. Not for me, either. The Weather Channel had the top forecast.
Actuals: Friday – High 65, Low 35
Saturday .06″ of rain, High 54, Low 41
Grade: A-C
We’re headed southeastward to start the work week. Getting into the middle of November, a trek to the beach might be a good idea. It will take two days to get from Illinois to the Treasure Coast, covering 1162 miles. That will cover nearly 70 miles an hour, and we will over 554 miles on our first day, leaving a longer day for Tuesday. Beach day!
DAY ONE (Monday)
Low pressure in the Great Lakes has hooked up with the remnants of Rafael at this point, which is slowing the eastward traffic down a bit. By the time we get going on Monday morning, it will have dried out in east Central Illinois, and will be dry, if with some patchy clouds, for our route. The tail of the cold front, fused to the remnants of Rafael, will stall through Georgia, bringing about some mid to lower level overcast through the Smokey Mountains as we pass through Chattanooga. The day will conclude in Calhoun, just north of Atlanta.
DAY TWO (Tuesday)
That low in the Gulf will refuse to go away, but will get forced apart by a burgeoning ridge of high pressure in the eastern two thirds of the country. The low moving out of the Great Lakes will be safely off in the Canadian Maritimes, and our drive on Tuesday to Sebastian will be done with very good conditions, save for all those Florida drivers to worry about.
We’ll head to America’s Heartland for our weekend forecast. Champaign is the home of the University of Illinois, school with a good meteorology program, and rivals of my Purdue Boilermakers.
At 1053AM, ET, Champaign was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with clear skies. High pressure was seated over the Great Lakes, thanks to a shortwaved ridge riding the greater jet structure. This means that while it is sunny in east central Illinois, it is also fairly cool. A perturbation moving out of the base of the mean trough is starting to send some high clouds into the area. While it is cool and calm right now, a couple of features, the remnants of Rafael in the Gulf and the perturbation in the trough poise to make the weekend a bit less pleasant.
Rising moisture out of the Gulf will carry with it some additional warmth tomorrow. The well wound system in the center of the country is rapidly occluding, but is generally well organized enough to transfer airmasses, and send some worthwhile cold air into Champaign behind the cold front tomorrow evening. This will allow the murky shower and perhaps isolated thundershower activity not to overstay its welcome. Clearing will come by the end of the day on Sunday.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, with rain in the afternoon and evening. An isolated thunderstorm can’t be ruled out. High 58, Low 40
Sunday – Rain early, then clearing and warmer with sunlight, High 63, Low 49
TWC Tomorrow – Cloudy skies (Late rain), High 59, Low 40
Sunday – Sun and a few passing clouds (Early rain) High 64, Low 52
AW: Tomorrow – Increasing cloudiness (Late rain)High 60, Low 41
Sunday – Breezy and pleasant with periods of clouds and sun High 62, Low 46
NWS: A 20 percent chance of showers after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, High 60, Low 40
Sunday – A 40 percent chance of showers before noon. Mostly sunny, High 64, Low 49
WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the morning, then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon, High 60, Low 42
Sunday – Mostly sunny, a chance of showers in the morning, High 62, Low 49
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers and isolated storms, High 58, Low 39
Sunday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 62, Low 52
CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 58, low 40
Sunday – Sunny, High 63, low 52
It’s going to be active and wet this weekend, though not a complete drencher. Still, if it is going to be this cool, it’s pretty gross. Clouds are already filtering in across the region.
