After a lull in the late summer, The Weather Channel came storming back in September. They were the top outlet in 60% of the forecasts for the month, and manhandled the competition. They have a commanding lead in the forecast wins, but when they’ve been bad, they were really bad, so there is a lot to play for this year. If TWC keeps forecasting like they did in September, they will be hard to catch!
Before Isaias grabbed headlines in Florida, we were eying Polo in the eastern Pacific. The storm was projected to slide into the Southwest and pump moisture into the southern Plains. A couple of outlets thought the threat was great enough to include rain throughout the forecast for Sherman. Instead, one of the outlets, The Weather Channel, who kept the forecast dry on the 29th, put together a nearly perfect forecast and won the last forecast of September. Actuals: September 28th, .01″ of rain, High 90, Low 70 September 29th, High 93, Low 73
Fall storm systems are just dreary. Cold and rainy, without the strong thunderstorms or stacking of snow. Just unpleasant. Sorry that this is coming.
8:30PM
Flooding rains to the east, thanks to Isaias, the pending rain storm to the north this weekend, and yet, Arkansas is going to be looking at a fire risk over the next couple of days. The weather, at times, is on a razor’s edge.
9:25PM: This is the kind of storm that rolls in right at bed time on a school night. I don’t see any storm reports yet, despite the move through the Kansas City metro, so let’s hope the only impact is drowsy elementary schoolers tomorrow morning.
9:34PM: Isaias came and went. Two deaths were attributed to his wrath, but a Category 2 hurricane is otherwise light work for local residents. He’s going to continue to harangue the East Coast for a couple of days, and will probably get his name retired, even though it’s not going to go down as a storm that everyone remembers.
1059PM: Obviously Isaias was the big show in town this weekend, but we should also take note of the potential for flash flooding almost immediately thereafter in the Las Vegas area.
Well, it’s here. Hurricane Isaias is on the doorstep of the Florida Panhandle, and will make landfall this afternoon to early evening.
Presently, Isaias is a Category 3 hurricane, which is what I anticipated, but it is also taking a bit deeper channel in towards landfall, which at this point appears to be just east of Fort Walton Beach.
While surge is going to be an immediate problem along the coast, within the next few hours, the threat for high wind and a few tornadoes will be pronounced in places like Panama City and Tallahassee. Fortunately, Isaias is moving steadily, and while there is a threat for flash flooding, it is not as severe as we have seen with storms in recent years.
Isaias will march through Alabama tomorrow, which has brought some speculation about the viability of the college football game in Tuscaloosa. It should start drying out fairly early, and football is important at the University of Alabama, so expect it will be a miserable game on.
Isaias is major hurricane and will certainly cause problems in the Panhandle, but it is not as strong as Matthew, the most recent strong hurricane to hit the area, and is not going to dawdle in the high terrain, like Helene. Any landfalling hurricane is notable, and it is particularly notable this year, as it is the first hurricane of any kind in the Atlantic. It only takes one!
12:21AM: Late night update, but Isaias is presently a major hurricane. He will begin to wane as he approaches the coast through the day Friday, but surge, rain and a few tornadoes are going to be expected in southern Alabama, southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle this weekend.
Late September in Salinas is apparently perfect. Our forecast featured sunshine, highs in the low 70s and crisp mornings in the upper 50s. Forecasts along the coast are always a bit topsy turvy, so even with good weather, the forecasts weren’t extraordinary. The Weather Channel did earn victory. Actuals: September 24th, High 73, Low 58 September 25th, High 73, Low 54
1:31PM: For those who missed it, we finally have our first hurricane of the year. Isaias is officially a hurricane in the Gulf, headed for landfall around Mobile and Pensacola if current guidance holds.
10:33AM: Isaias has formed in the Gulf, and you can see the wind barbs drawing towards and around the center of his circulation off the Mexican coast. There are ample showers and storms tied to a slow moving boundary in the Florida Peninsula, and the air is dry along the Gulf Coast. That said, the storm is in very rich air, and now appears primed to develop into the year’s first hurricane. Steering flow will keep him over the Gulf, getting stronger, for a couple of days. Right now the guidance has him making landfall around Pensacola. If it misses, I will guess it goes further to the east, towards Panama City. Still a lot of the week left to go, with a projected land fall coming late Friday.
11:41AM: The rain currently in Florida shouldn’t be discounted. It has brought historic rain to the northern part of the state over the beginning of October, and is related to several perturbations along the coast. Jacksonville isn’t far from where Isaias will end up, and they don’t even touch on it in their daily highlights.
12:08PM Guidance right now pretty consistently calls for at least a Cat 1 storm out of Isaias. Thi is a strange year, but I’ve learned recently that storm intensity isn’t often anticipated well. Don’t be surprised if he ultimately caps as a Cat 2 or even low grade Cat 3.
10:13PM: After ending September with tons and tons of rain, it has now been pretty warm in Minnesota this week. My lawn hasn’t looked this good all summer.
