Bend, Oregon

Happy Independence Day everybody! Hopefully you had an enjoyable extended weekend and got to enjoy some fireworks today. As we ease our way into a short work week, let’s head off to Central Oregon and find out what’s happening in the lee of the Cascades!

At 555pm PDT, the temperature in Bend, OR was 91 degrees under fair skies. A broad upper-ridge is found over the western US with a lingering boundary/low pressure system found over eastern Washington. the boundary is expected to dissipate by tomorrow morning, but essentially a thermal low is going to continue hanging out over eastern sections of WA/OR over the next couple of days as toasty temps in the 90s are anticipated. Very little chance is anticipated in the overall pattern as we push into the weekend, so in the meantime, the conditions in Bend will be hot and quiet.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny and hot. High 92, Low 56.
Thursday: Continued sunny and hot High 93, Low 57.

TWC: Wednesday: Sunny. High 95, Low 58.
Thursday: Sunny. High 94, Low 58.

AW: Wednesday: Mostly sunny and hot. High 93, Low 55.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and hot. High 93, Low 55.

NWS: Wednesday: Sunny. High 93, Low 52.
Thursday: Sunny. High 94, Low 57.

WB: Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 90, Low 58.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 90, Low 58.

WN: Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 93, Low 52.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 93, Low 57.

FIO: Wednesday: Clear throughout the day. High 89, Low 61.
Thursday: Clear throughout the day. High 88, Low 62.

Here we see much of the western US is clear and quiet, just some high wispy clouds over eastern OR. Much of the same is in store for the next couple of days as temperatures remain high.

June Forecaster of the Month

Summer time is here! I’ve always moved a little bit more fluidly during the hottest times of the year. Perhaps it’s because I never move quickly, and everyone else just moves to my level. During the month of June, though, it seemed as though Victoria-Weather had an extra trick up our sleeves all month, as we edged out the nearest competition, in a fairly busy month of work, and in doing so, reclaimed the lead for the year. Way to go, us!

A comfort zone

July began in Columbia by finding a rut and sticking to it. There was only a difference of 1 degree between the highs on Sunday and Monday, while the lows were exactly the same. There was a big difference in precipitation, though, as the isolated showers and storms didn’t affect the South Carolina capital, but they clobbered the town on Monday, as the promised low level wave cruised through town. Maybe waded through town is a better descriptor, as it didn’t move terribly quickly. The Weather Channel inched past the other competitors, thanks to a some serious consistency and now bad verifying times.
Actuals: Sunday – High 94, Low 73
Monday – .49 inches of rain, High 93, Low 73

Grade: B-C

Columbia, South Carolina to Lawrence, Kansas

There will be a lot of travelling over the next few days for people the nation over. Let’s take a look at one possible route with our road trip toady. The trip will cover 1032 miles and last almost 2 days exactly. The trek will proceed at a pace of 68.8mph, which means the first day, which will be longer, will allow us to cover 550 miles at that pace. I think it’s about time to hit the road, don’t you?

 

DAY ONE (Monday)

The drive out of South Carolina will be fairly tranquil, but with a weak low level vort maximum sliding in from Alabama and Mississippi, there is a threat for some showers and thunderstorms to develop as the day warms up. The shower activity will be unable to move over the southern Appalachians, because the moisture is seated in the lower levels of the atmosphere. As a result, as we clear the mountains into Knoxville, we will also clear the air. Tennessee, aside from that spurt through the Smokey Mountains, will be high and dry. We’ll make it into western Kentucky, stopping in the town of Grand Rivers, which seems like a good time, given its proximity to the Cumberland River. I guess we’ll find out.

DAY TWO (Tuesday)
The trip from Kentucky to Kansas will be relatively uneventful as well. Day time thunderstorms will bubbble up as far north as western Kentucky, but that won’t happen until late in the day. Driving through southern Illinois and our cross section of Missouri will be just fine, but a weak upper level trough sliding through the Plains promises to introduce a new level of organization to the weather pattern. Some thunderstorms, potentially a few big ones, will erupt over eastern Kansas, and will be a looming concern from Kansas City to Lawrence. Be prepared to make a run for the hotel upon the arrival in Lawrence.

Not as toasty as advertised

The heat was expected to roast the Yakima Valley at the end of the most recent work week. Forecast highs for Yakima on Thursday and Friday were universally in the 90s, but thanks to the spurious winds of the inter-mountain west, that potential was only barely reached. It remained in the 80s on Thursday, and climbed up to 93 on Friday, but with temperatures dropping all the way to the mid 50s on both days of the forecast period, it never seemed as warm as had been feared. Weatherbug had the coolest forecast of all outlets, and won the forecast.
Actuals: Thursday – High 88, Low 55
Friday – High 93, Low 55

Grade: B-D

Columbia, South Carolina

Let’s check out the weather in the Carolinas tonight. Anyone going to have a problem with that?

At 933PM, ET, Columbia was reporting fair skies with a temperature of 83 degrees. to the southeast, Aiken was reporting thunder, and there was an isolated cell in Saluda County producing severe winds. Heavier rain was being seen on radar to the east, particularly in and around Florence and its neighbors to the south. The activity isn’t well organized, being generated in conjunction with the tail end of a trough that lies mostly offshore.
That weak feature will be replaced by a different weak feature, a low level trough moving from Mississippi and Alabama to the Carolinas by Monday. Lazy summertime thunderstorms will be possible both Sunday and Monday, but as that little wave moves into the Palmetto State, that activity will become much broader in coverage.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers and thunderstorms, High 95, Low 75
Monday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms, High 89, Low 77

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 95, Low 74
Monday – Mixed clouds and sun with scattered thunderstorms. High 91, Low 75

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with clouds and sun; widely separated thunderstorms in the afternoon High 96, Low 75
Monday – Sunshine and patchy clouds with a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 92, Low 75

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, High 96, Low 75
Monday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Partly sunny, High 93, Low 76

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 93, Low 76
Monday – Partly sunny in the morning, thenn mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 87, Low 76

WN: Tomorrow –  Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 97, Low 75
Monday – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 93, Low 75

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain overnight and in the evening. High 94, Low 75
Monday – Rain starting in the morning. High 88, Low 76

WeatherNation made it difficult for me to get to the forecast for Columbia, South Carolina. Even when I would have Columbia, SC in the search bar or even select the option, it would send me to Columbia, Missouri, or, once, Washington, DC. I had to manually enter the browser address. WeatherNation should lose points for that. Here is the radar. Since the forecast started, I should note that severe storms have moved into Columbia.

A first look at the 4th

This evening, Mother Nature is producing her own fireworks from the eastern Great Lakes to the central and Northern Plains, with some rumbles of thunder also cropping up in the southeast. Next Tuesday, at this time, we’ll all probably be in our back yards, watching completely legal fireworks being launched by neighbors, shortly after the municipal shows dominated the twilight.

So what kind of weather are we looking at for the 4th? I’m happy to say, most of the country should get in some traditional 4th of July activities, either the barbecue or the fireworks at sunset. here is a look at the GFS output for mid day and the early evening, respectively.

While there is certainly a threat for showers and storms, particularly in the southeastern US, there is nothing particularly well organized on this map. There might be some rain to duck during the day in the southeast, but it won’t continue through the day, and there will be time to fire up those gas grills.

Later, the center of the country, in and around Missouri, could see some headier storm activity, though it’s far too soon to figure it exactly where the storms will materialize. The activity in Florida will dissipate as the afternoon wears on, and by sunset, any remaining storms will likely be inland, away from most of the shows.

So go out, enjoy Independence Day without fear of nasty weather.

No rain, but a lot of heat

Fort Collins, just on the lee side of the Rockies promised to be at the leading edge of any warm up in the Plains, after a broad, overwhelming trough smothered half of the United States. There was a threat that there would be a few isolated strong thunderstorms at the leading edge of this emerging heat wave, but those storms ended up erupting as far east as Nebraska, leaving Fort Collins to swelter in hot downsloping flow, completely avoiding any rain. Temperatures ultimately blew past anyone’s imagination, reaching 97 degrees on Tuesday. Victoria-Weather had one of the better temperature forecasts (still not great), but were pushed to victory because we left rain out of the forecast. It was in Nebraska, for heaven’s sake! I say we were more than just a little lucky.
Actuals: Monday – High 89, Low 50
Tuesday – High 97, Low 52

Grade: C-D

Yakima, Washington

All right, pals, let’s go to the Pacific Northwest and see if we can’t stir up some weather.

At 953PM, PT, Yakima was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 72 degrees. Winds were brisk through the Yakima Valley, but that was simply the bluster of undulating terrain and not a sign of any significant weather to come.
A sharp, short waved ridge is moving through the Pacific Northwest over the next couple of days, and it will keep Yakima in the sun and warmth.  An upper level trough will inch into the region late on Friday and may take a bit of the edge off the heat late in the day, but won’t significantly impact the weather otherwise.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 90, Low 60
Friday – A few clouds, High 92, Low 64

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 91 Low 60
Friday – Sunny. High 95, Low 60

AW: Tomorrow – Periods of clouds and sunshine High 91, Low 54
Friday – Mostly sunny and hot High 96, Low 58

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 91, Low 57
Friday – Sunny, High 94, Low 61

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 57
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 58

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 91, Low 57
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 61

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. Highh 85, Low 59
Friday – Clear throughout the day. Hiigh 88, Low 63

More hot weather in Washington, but the fire danger is waning. Here is the national satellite, because the local imagery is just a map of Washington.

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