The Eastern Carolinas are just as deep into December as the rest of us, but in places like Jacksonville, December is just nicer. On the 17th and 18th, during our forecast period, it was foggy and damp, yes, but also in the 70s. And sure, there was rain, but only .01″ was recorded late on the 18th. That’s not that bad! Also not bad was the forecast put forth by the Weather Service and WeatherNation, who had top billing in this one. Actuals: Tuesday – High 74, Low 55 Wednesday – .01 in of rain in a thunderstorm, High 70, Low 54
New Orleans is a lot further south from Virginia Beach than I thought when this forecast first came up. It will be a tour of the southeast on this two day drive, which will bring us to New Orleans on Christmas Day. Our sleigh will be moving at 67.8mph for 1076 miles on this holiday road trip.
DAY ONE (Tuesday)
Virginia Beach, Virginia
A little bit of a perturbation in the Bight of Georgia is going to pull northward through the day today, and brush the Carolinas with a little bit of wet weather. We will skirt the periphery of this rain, which again, should be light, for our Christmas Eve journey, and it will erode both in the face of advancing colder air from the northeast, and simple distance from the sea. We will be in the clear as we turn west from Florence, South Carolina, and should then have quieter times through the remainder of the Palmetto State, and pull in for the night in Greensboro, Georgia, near Lake Oconee.
DAY TWO (Wednesday) Merry Christmas, travelers. We will get started from Lake Oconee and head into Alabama, relatively unscathed, save for Atlanta traffic. The Gulf will be opening up as high pressure moves into the east Coast, which will mean some afternoon rain and thunderstorms in the Mississippi Valley. The threat for rain will begin near Evergreen, Alabama, and continue to New Orleans. Stormy conditions are probably going to be more pervasive inland, so hopefully, the Mississippi Gulf Coast and New Orleans aren’t too rainy to spend Christmas afternoon.
7:38PM: Well, it’s here; Christmas week. Initial indications are for a stormy pattern out in the Northwest, and more wintry weather in New England. The good news is, if you live in those areas, you have surely taken that news into account as a part of your travel planning. If not, though, just remember that weather in either of those areas can trip up travel nationwide. And we are getting it in both regions. On Christmas. Be patient.
1107pm: A look at the Eastern Carolinas precip forecast outlines moisture rising from the southeast bearing toward New England
Rain was inundating the mid Atlantic when we forecast for Lancaster on the 10th. Over an inch fell on the 11th, which belied the 60 degree high temperature. Those 60s also didn’t stick around. The 12th got quite a bit chillier, about 25 degrees so, but at least it stayed dry! The forecast was handled pretty well all around, but Accuweather stood out a bit on the competition. Actuals: December 11th, 1.14″ of rain, high 61, Low 37 December 12th, High 38, Low 24
11:21. No no, that is the continental shelf off the Carolina Coast, not an above the surface physical feature touching off thunderstorms. No matter how it looks.
It was busy this month, which really added to the annual win totals, and gave credibility to our monthly winner. It hasn’t been the best year for Accuweather but in our most active month of the year (at least in terms of forecasts issued) they came through with the big win. Congratulations!
December started in quite the dreary manner in the Cascades. It had been foggy in Corvallis when we investigated on the 4th, and the forecast was for the fog to start breaking down a little bit. It did not. Not even a little bit. Victoria-Weather was the least optimistic, but that paid off, because it was pretty gloomy. The forecast wasn’t good for any of our forecasters, and the weather wasn’t good for any of the residents, as it never cleared out to start warming up. Actuals: December 5th, High 36, Low 30 December 6th, High 37, Low 28
Not quite as renowned as the two Portlands, there are also two Jacksonvilles, and both of them are on an intercoastal water way in the southeast, so there is a bit more in common with these co-named towns.
At 156PM, ET, Jacksonville was reporting a temperature of 69 degrees with mostly sunny skies. A boundary had shifted off shore in relation to low pressure in the central Appalachians, and clouds and rain were recently observed as nearby as Cherry Point. North Carolina finds itself within the warm sector of this feature, and looks to enjoy a warm afternoon. The parent low to the feature in the Appalachians is a deeply occluded cyclone in Ontario. The jet structure is becoming more laminar, making the occlusion even more stark, and weakening the cold front. The boundary will track through Jacksonville fairly uneventfully tomorrow afternoon. This unaltered environment will be in place as another low organized and moves swiftly, starting in southern Missouri and transporting through the Carolinas by Wednesday evening. Expect a surge in warmth and moisture in the afternoon, followed by an increasing threat of showers, with a few embedded thunderstorms. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 72, Low 43 Wednesday – Increasingly cloudy, some rain late, High 72, low 56
TWC: Tomorrow – Areas of fog (and rain) early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon High 73, Low 53 Wednesday – Areas of fog early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon high 72, low 54
AW: Tomorrow – Areas of fog in the morning; otherwise, very warm with clouds and sunshine High 74, Low 51 Wednesday – Areas of morning fog; otherwise, partly sunny and warm with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 72, Low 53
NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of fog before 10am. Otherwise, cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, High 73, Low 52 Wednesday – A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, High 70, Low 54
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly sunny, High 69, Low 53 Wednesday – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. A 40% chance of showers, with thunderstorms in the evening, High 69, Low 53
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers, High 72, Low 53 Wednesday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 70, Low 54
CLI: I think Clime is done? Their forecasts just keep bringing out 404’s
Here is the radar for the Carolinas with some showers over the Outer Banks.
We transitioned to December in the midst of our forecast period in Florence, Alabama, and for Alabama, anyways, it felt like the season was changing. Overnight lows were below freezing both on the 30th and 1st, and that’s a chill you just can’t shake if you aren’t used to it, even if the high temperature ranges up to the mid-50s, and the sun is shining in the afternoon. The brisk weather in Alabama was brisk business for Victoria-Weather, who had a top notch forecast and won the day. Actuals: November 30th – High 52, Low 34 December 1st – High 55, Low 30
