Forecast

Terre Haute, Indiana

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While most of the country is keeping an eye on Hurricane Irma, and rightfully so, it’s still a few days away from possibly affecting mainland US. So in the meantime, let’s take a look at what’s happening in the Hoosier State.

At 1053pm EDT, the temperature at Terre Haute, IN was 76 degrees under overcast skies. It was quite the balmy day in Terre Haute today as it got into the 90s, but then the cold front finally swung through during the later evening hours, ushering in some much cooler air over the next couple of days. A decent line of thunderstorms worked its way through the area this evening as well, but luckily for Terre Haute they just missed off to the northeast. A couple of isolated showers are lingering behind the front but should avoid the Terre Haute area as they trek off towards the east-southeast. As high pressure builds in throughout the Midwest over the next couple days, rather cool and pleasant weather is anticipated over the region. Dry weather is expected to last throughout the week actually, so a nice start to Meteorological Fall looks to be in store!

Tuesday: Clouds decreasing through morning, mostly sunny by afternoon. High 75, Low 54.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 68, Low 47.

TWC: Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High 76, Low 58.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 69, Low 47.

AW: Tuesday: Cooler with periods of sun, an isolated morning shower possible. High 76, Low 59.
Wednesday: Pleasantly cool with some sun. High 70, Low 47.

NWS: Tuesday: Slight chance of some early morning showers, then mostly sunny. High 74, Low 57.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 71, Low 49.

WB: Tuesday: Mostly sunny, chance of early morning storms. High 74, Low 58.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 67, Low 50.

WN: Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 73, Low 59.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 72, Low 48.

FIO: Tuesday: Rain overnight, skies clearing by afternoon. High 73, Low 58.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy starting in the evening. High 68, Low 47.

A broken line of thunderstorms rumbled through the region earlier this evening as a cold front moved on through. The next few days will be much nicer however!

Verification

Monterey Bay, a world apart

If you look for weather headlines, aside from the recovery from Harvey in Houston, to the looming danger from Irma in the north Atlantic, the next big story is the heat and fire danger out west. Earlier it was Seattle and Portland that experienced record heat, but last week, it was San Francisco. Los Angeles is seeing a wild fire in an area that hasn’t seen such an event in 80 years. Meanwhile, in places like Monterey Bay, and in particular, Santa Cruz, temperatures as of mid-week remained in the mid 70s for highs. The cold Pacific and a barrier of mountains to the east do a good job keeping anything but cool temperatures out of the area. With regards to the forecast for the area, Victoria-Weather collected the top marks for the city by the sea.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 72, Low 57
Wednesday – High 76, Low 52

Grade: B-C

Road Trip

Austin, Texas to Ann Arbor, Michigan

Let’s take a nice little road trip this Labor Day weekend, as we head north from Texas off to Lower Michigan. Thanks to a rapid drive up I-35, and continued travel along the interstate system, we will be able to cover 70 miles an hour, 563 miles a day, and will cover this 1368 mile drive in only 2 1/2 days. Let’s see if the weather cooperates with our ambitious pace.

DAY ONE (Monday)

Thankfully, as we start our trek out of Austin and through Texas will be dry and warm. This is a part of the country that has been through far too much, so clear skies and hopefully clear roads will be greatly appreciated. We will arrive in Arkansas with a warm, moist flow rising out of the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a weak cold front moving out of the Midwest. The day will end after we pass Little Rock, continuing another hour to Fredonia, on the way to Memphis.

DAY TWO (Tuesday)
Immediately as we get going from Fredonia, we will encounter some rain, with isolated embedded thunderstorms as we make our way through northeastern Arkansas. The boundary will be well defined with a good deal of cold air driving south from the Midwest, so, while we will have some heavy rain and thunderstorm early on in the day, the majority of our drive will be nice and clear. With the cooler air, having rolled down windows will be nice. There might be a bit of a headwind that could impact gas mileage, depending on the profile of your vehicle. We can make it to Monee, on the south side of the Chicago metro before we have to call it a day.

DAY THREE (Wednesday)
The low pressure center associated with the cold front we encounter Tuesday morning will be rotating through the Great Lakes. This cool low will tap into the moisture of the Lakes, and there will be pop up showers throughout Lower Michigan all day on Wednesday. Mostly cloudy skies and an autumnal chill await in Ann Arbor, along with those light showers.

Verification

Savannah dodges a tropical storm

Last weekend, as Harvey was bringing devastation to east Texas, there was another area that seemed like a possibly organizing tropical feature over north Florida. Much to the surprise of nearly everyone, the feature never became a tropical storm, and it only grazed Savannah with a little bit of light rain on Sunday and Monday. The narrow temperature trends were well anticipated by everyone, and the collective forecast was pretty good. The Weather Channel nosed the rest of us to claim a razor thin victory.
Sunday – .07 inches of rain, High 84, Low 75
Monday – .03 inches of rain, High 79, Low 70

Grade: A-B

Forecast

Austin, Texas

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After such a terrible week of weather in southern Texas, we will get an update. Austin wasn’t one of the cities that felt a direct impact by Harvey, but they are housing many of the refugees and were themselves battered by Harvey’s initial rounds of wind and rain. Are things on the upswing in Texas? Let’s explore.

At 1253AM, CT, Austin was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 71 degrees. Lingering moisture allowed the dew points to reach the upper 60s to low 70s across the region, with fog settling in near the coast, and likely to build towards Austin overnight. Some convection churning over northern Mexico is triggering some clouds, which may spill across the border, but otherwise, a clear night is expected for Austin.
High pressure is going to keep a hold on the southern United States for the Labor Day weekend. In north Texas, there might be a rogue thunderstorm that pops up thanks to an upper level ripple, but the region will enjoy some clear skies and a chance to recuperate from the devastation that came to the area last week.
Tomorrow – Morning fog with sun, High 92, Low 69
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 73

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 95, Low 70
Sunday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 95, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 93, Low 70
Sunday – Partial sunshine with a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 91, Low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 92, Low 69
Sunday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy, High 91, Low 70
Sunday – Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 90, Low 72

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 75
Sunday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 91, Low 72

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 91, Low 71
Sunday – Partly cloudy starting overnight.High 89, Low 73

Here is a look at the satellite, with clouds in Mexico. The good news is that we are looking at dry skies for at least a few days. Even if those that had rain in the forecast on Sunday are right, it shouldn’t be that much.

Story

Record Floods, Record Heat, Go Away Irma!

The news continues to be dominated by scenes of the destruction Harvey wrought upon the TX coastline as it make landfall near Rockport, and of course the epic flooding in Houston and places further along the Gulf Coast into Western LA. It’s my hope that these areas in Western LA and where Harvey actually made landfall don’t get ignored as most focus on Houston. Areas around Rockport and Port Aransas were mostly flattened by the sustained hurricane force winds that battered them for nearly half a day.

But as the Gulf Coast continues to start to pick of the pieces, and in many areas, wait for the floodwaters to recede, a new possible threat emerges, Hurricane Irma. Irma is still way out in the Atlantic, but has sustained winds of 115mph (Category 3) and look to take an odd path over the next few days. Most storms out in the Atlantic head on a more west-northwesterly route, maybe sometimes due west. Irma, however, wants to go west-SOUTHwest throughout the weekend. It’s not very often a storm “loses” latitude, but that’s what it’s expected to do. This could be a problem because the further south it goes, the longer it would take for it to recurve out over the Atlantic as it gets closer to the Caribbean. Models have it going anywhere from the Gulf to New England, so it’s still a WAYS out of being any real threat to land, but they do all agree on it being a major hurricane as it pushes into next week. Irma will definitely be a storm to keep an eye on.

And as if THAT wasn’t enough, another weather story that’s been pushed under the proverbial rug that is Harvey is the epic heat wave engulfing the Western US right now. Downtown San Francisco broke their ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH tonight as they topped out at 106 degrees. San Francisco Airport broke their all-time record as well at 104. Places everywhere baked over 100 degrees and crushed records, with Healdsburg and King City peaking at 111. It should start subsiding over the next couple of days, but meanwhile, the West will continue to roast.

Verification

Weather Wayback … back when the weather changed in the west

Whatever headlines we see for the center and eastern parts of the country, it seems, as of late, the weather out west has remained the same. Dry and hot. Back in May, however, it wasn’t quite the same situation, and after a system moved out of the western US and into the Rockies, there was a splash of rain in our early May forecast for Grand Junction, and it wasn’t much of a surprise. Nowadays? It would definitely be a surprise, and a welcome relief. Back in May, up in the mountains of the central Rockies, the National Weather Service had the top forecast.
Actuals: Friday, May 5th, High 87, Low 48
Saturday, May 6th, .06 inches of rain, High 83,, Low 52

Grade: A-C

Road Trip

Savannah, Georgia to Santa Cruz, California

We continue to monitor the situation in the western Gulf, which is expanding in scope from the Houston area to southern Louisiana, but this lengthy trip should give us a good cross section of the weather elsewhere in the country. Our trip will take 5 days to cover 2685 miles. As a special treat, this will take exactly 5 days to cover, meaning the math is pretty easy to figure out. We’ll go 67.125 miles a day and covering 537 mile a day.

 

DAY ONE (Wednesday)

Harvey is finally, mercifully on the move, and will really begin to break down as he moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley. As he becomes unravelled, the heavy rain will spread in their coverage, spilling into Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi. Showers and thunderstorms, including some isolated tornadoes, will become increasingly possible as we head west through the day, with rain becoming quite heavy west of Birmingham. Amid the deluge, we will stop between Tupelo and Memphis in the town of New Albany, Mississippi. They might see a couple inches of rain, but it still won’t compare to the Texas coast.

DAY TWO (Thursday)
Harvey will move up the Mississippi River towards Memphis, and we will be within the heavy rain, and make our nearest pass to the center of circulation as we head through Memphis. Fortunately, by this point, Harvey’s breadth will be reduced, and we should drive out of the rain somewhere around Little Rock. High pressure is what is forcing Harvey along, and will be the culprit for our much calmer afternoon. We’ll stop on the east side of Oklahoma City, with sunny skies and hot weather in our immediate future.

DAY THREE (Friday)
Friday will also be mercifully dry, but afternoons will be getting even warmer. The monsoon is getting organized out west, especially with Harvey clearing the moisture pipeline and allowing the wet weather in. Some isolated storms will pop up in the 4 corners, but it will be over the higher terrain of northern New Mexico, rather than the dusty east part leading up to Albuquerque. It will be just us and the road as we arrive in Albuquerque for the night.

DAY FOUR (Saturday)
We’ll be headed into the hottest part of the country, if not the world on Saturday, in the midst of another west coast heat wave. We’re going to move through the relatively cool northern Arizona and bake by the time we hit the Colorado River along the border with California, calling it a night in Needles, which isn’t far from the border. One more day to drive!

DAY FIVE (Sunday)
Sunny California. We’ll see most of it, from the deserts of southeastern California through the lush central Valley and then the undulating and beautiful Monterey Bay. We won’t see many clouds until we get right up on the coast, where there might be a hint of a marine layer as we arrive in Santa Cruz.

Forecast

Santa Cruz, California

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So much attention has been focused on southeastern Texas and Harvey – and rightfully so, of course- that there is almost no concept of what the whether is doing elsewhere right now. A preview: it’s hot out west.

At 948PM, PT, Watsonville/Santa Cruz was reporting overcast skies with fog and a temperature of 59 degrees. Heat advisories were out for the interior Valley, but from San Francisco Bay to Monterey Bay, Pacific flow, clouds and morning and evening fog were all conspiring to keep temperatures livable. In fact, the heat advisories and red flag warnings have all been stripped away from the Bay area.
There is a weak trough moving through upper levels of the atmosphere, and will traverse California through the day Wednesday, and should ultimately lead to a dissipation of the fog and low clouds, at least in the later evening on Wednesday. Temperatures inland will respond by cooling off, but with fewer clouds, it may warm slightly along the coast with less afternoon overcast.
Tomorrow – Morning and evening fog. High 73, Low 55
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies.  High 74, Low 58
Wednesday – Sunny skies. High 77, Low 56

AW:: Tomorrow – Nice with areas of low clouds early on; otherwise, mostly sunny High 74, Low 58
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and cool High 75, Low 58

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, Hgh 70, Low 58
Wednesday – Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, High 71, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Patchy fog in the morning, High 69, Low 57
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. High 71, Low 57

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 57
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 57

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy until afternoon. High 69, Low 54
Wednesday – Partly cloudy in the morning. High 70, Low 54

Temperatures are all over the map. It will depend greatly on what the clouds do along the coast.  Speaking of, here is the satellite, with some low overcast barely showing up around Monterey Bay.

Verification

Irma isn’t around to keep it cool

Most of the forecasts for Columbia incorporated some organization to the potential tropical storm off the Georgia coast. Alas, this storm, a future Irma, was not yet to be. Columbia didn’t enjoy any respite from clouds, and no temperate air was brought in to reduce temperatures. Instead, it was a typical August swelter in the South Carolina capital, with temperatures touching the 90s each day this weekend. Weatherbug still managed to hang on to a pretty decent forecast, winning the day.
Actuals: Saturday – High 92, Low 73
Sunday – High 90, Low 72

Grade B-C

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