Great Expectations

With a system passing just south of the Fargo area during the middle week, there was great anticipation for a momentous warm up across the area when it departed. Temperatures proceeded to plummet overnight into Wednesday morning as clear skies and a bit of a cooler flow filtered into the region. That was the fatal flaw in the forecast. The high on Wednesday didn’t recover to match the expected highs, ensuring that there wasn’t a really good forecast to be had. I’m not going to say everything was all bad from a forecasting standpoint, however, as meteorologists and the weather recovered nicely, with a high of 70. WeatherNation was solid on Thursday, and ultimately had the privilege of claiming victory for the whole day.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 63, Low 41
Wednesday – High 70, Low 43

Grade: C-D

Steady As She Goes

A hot, dry forecast was in the books for Brownsville, and it didn’t disappoint. It was a bit cloudier in the mornings than expected, but that didn’t stop temperatures from hitting the 90s both days. Temperatures were very even across both days, which I’m sure made it easy for people to plan how to go about their days. Accuweather edged out the victory.

Wednesday: High 90, Low 77.
Thursday: High 91, Low 78.
Forecast Grade: A-B

Visalia, California

Good morning! It’s getting warm everywhere, but in California, it never really gets that cold anyway.

At 756AM, PT, Visalia was reporting a temperature of 53 degrees with clear skies. An area of low pressure in the Pacific Northwest was inducing a westerly flow across California, transporting cooler Pacific air into the Valley, but keeping skies clear.
A look at the satellite suggests the ongoing trend for the next couple of days. Clear skies will persist at the lower terrain, mid level flow will generate some clouds in the Sierras. The upper level trough will break down, through flow will continue to bring moisture into the Sierras. Expect a few showers in the mountains, but Visalia will continue to be free and clear.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 72, Low 46
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 71, Low 47

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and some clouds. High 74, Low 46
Monday – Mainly sunny. High 74, Low 48

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and cool High 73, Low 46
Monday – Mostly sunny and cool High 74, Low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73, Low 48
Monday – Sunny – High 73, Low 49

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 72, Low 47
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 72. Low 47

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 48
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 73, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 78, Low 45
Monday – Clear throughout the day. High 78, Low 45

So FIO is going a little on the warm side, I guess. here is a look at the satellite, showing those high clouds over the Sierras I had mentioned.

Beachworthy

There aren’t any beaches to speak of in Bremerton. Shoreline, definitely, but probably not anything you would traditionally call a beach. The weather was nice enough that if there were beaches, many Seattle area residents would have been at them on Tuesday and Wednesday. Ahead of a spit of rain coming from the Gulf of Alaska, temperatures were near 70 with mostly sunny skies during the day. Rain inched in just before Wednesday turned to Thursday, which was earlier than expected, throwing off everyone’s forecast. Accuweather was the best around, and earned victory.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 71, Low 41
Wednesday – Rain reported, not measured, High 69, Low 46

Grade C-D

Jonesboro, Arkansas

A storm system has been affecting the south the last few days, but will it finally give way to the residents of Jonesboro?! Or will it be a soggy Mother’s Day weekend?

At 953pm CDT, the temperature at Jonesboro, AR was 64 degrees under overcast skies. A slow-moving low pressure system brought plenty of rain and storms to the area over the last couple of days, but as that moves off to the east overnight tonight, high pressure will be building over the region. Clouds should dissipate overnight, giving way to a sunny morning. These clear skies are expected to last throughout the Mother’s Day Weekend, with temperatures perking up a few degrees for Sunday. What a lovely weekend!

Saturday: Sunny. High 78, Low 55.
Sunday: Sunny and warmer. High 83, Low 55.

TWC: Saturday: Sunny. High 77, Low 54.
Sunday: Sunny. High 82, Low 58.

AW: Saturday: Pleasant and warmer. High 77, Low 54.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and pleasant. High 81, Low 55.

NWS: Saturday: Sunny. High 77, Low 55.
Sunday: Sunny. High 82, Low 57.

WB: Saturday: Sunny. High 76, Low 56.
Sunday: Sunny. High 80, Low 57.

WN: Saturday: Sunny. High 77, Low 55.
Sunday: Sunny. High 82, Low 57.

FIO: Saturday: Clear throughout the day. High 79, Low 56.
Sunday: Clear thoughout the day. High 84, Low 56.

Here we see some rain showers off to the south of Jonesboro, the last vestiges of the low pressure system pulling away from the area.

Lancaster, Pennsylvania

We’re going on another forecasting adventure today, taking a trip to southeastern Pennsylvania. This is Amish country, which is important because with the rain on the way, horseback is going to be an efficient way to travel.

At 1253PM, ET, Lancaster was reporting light rain with overcast skies and a temperature of 53 degrees. Eastern Pennsylvania lies at the tail of a cold front extending from the Atlantic and the forward edge of a warm front eminating from the southern Plains, and that convergence is producing a great deal of rain, with the bulk of it closer to Wilkes-Barre and dwindling shower activity in southeastern Pennsylvania.
The feature in the plains will organize as it moves towards the Ohio Valley, and early on Friday there will be a respite from the shower activity.As the feature approches, however, showers will build back into the Lancaster area Friday evening. An inverted trough will develop on the northwestern flank of the feature, extending over eastern Pennsylvania and staying put, effectively ruining Saturday thanks to a cool, persistent rain.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a bit of drizzle, High 59, Low 47
Saturday – Rain throughout the day, High 54, Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow -Cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 58, Low 47
Saturday – Rain, High 52, Low 47

AW: Tomorrow -Considerable cloudiness with a shower High 58, Low 47
Saturday – Breezy with periods of rain High 53, Low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of light rain, mainly after 10am. Cloudy High 58, Low 48
Saturday – Rain, High 55, Low 48

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 58, Low 50
Saturday – Rain. Rain may be heavy at times in the afternoon, High 53, low 50

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with patchy light drizzle, High 57, low 48
Saturday – Cloudy with rain, High 55, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow A chance of light rain, mainly after 10am. Cloudy High 61, Low 47
Saturday – Rain until evening.High 53, Low 48

Well, that’s gross. Here is the radar from this afternoon, showing that the weekend isn’t really much worse than it is today.

Hagerstown, Maryland to Johnson City, Tennessee

Today’s road trip falls just short of 400 miles, but will traverse 4 states as we travel through Appalachia. It’s just a day trip, but are there storms out there that will slow us down?

It will be mostly cloudy but dry to start the day driving southwards into western VA. However, a boundary that’s been camping out over the Virginias into NC over the last couple of days, and by midday, showers and thunderstorms will develop south of Roanoke. We’ll be dodging these storms for the duration of the afternoon as we continue down I-81 and eventually into Johnson City. We’re not anticipating any severe weather from these storms, but they could slow us down a bit at times.

A smattering of showers and good forecasts

The forecast in Blacksburg was a tale of two seasons. First, there was the threat for frost on Monday morning, though it was not realized and temperatures only dipped to 38. Tuesday brought a slow moving warm front with rain falling through the day, though only a quarter inch fell in town. And the warm front had to wait to bring it’s raised temperatures, as the clouds brought cooler highs than they saw on Monday. The warmer Monday lows, an the dreary Tuesday were good news for a handful of outlets. Victoria-Weather was steady across the board, Accuweather slipped on the Tuesday high, while Forecast.io stumbled with Tuesday’s low. All three drew level atop the leaderboard for the day.
Actuals: Monday – High 62, Low 38
Tuesday – .25 inches of rain, High 56, Low 39

Grade: B-C

Brownsville, Texas

Today we venture to one of the furthest south cities in the USA, Brownsville, TX! Sitting right at the USA/Mexico border, this city often sees scorching summer heat. Will these next couple of days see that or will the Gulf cool them off a tad?

At 1253am CDT, the temperature at Brownsville, TX was 80 degrees under overcast skies. High pressure is sitting firmly over the FL Peninsula, extending its’ reach throughout the Gulf of Mexico. A low pressure system attempting to become more organised over the Southern High Plains is kicking off plenty of thunderstorms from western KS to western TX tonight, but are making very little eastern progress. Pieces of energy will continue to eject from this system over the next couple of days, but will ride up and over the high pressure system through the Mid-MS River Valley into the OH Valley, pretty much bypassing eastern and far southern TX. Some very isolated shower activity may spring up during the day, but that activity should remain further inland. Gusty southerly winds are anticipated over the next couple of days, but outside of mostly cloudy skies heading into the weekend, that will be about as bad it gets.

Wednesday: Thinning clouds in afternoon, otherwise mostly cloudy. High 88, Low 76.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy, a hint warmer High 90, Low 75.

TWC: Wednesday: Partly cloudy and windy. High 89, Low 74.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 91, Low 76.

AW: Wednesday: Partly sunny, breezy, humid. High 89, Low 76.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, humid. High 91, Low 76.

NWS: Wednesday: Decreasing clouds and breezy. High 87, Low 75.
Thursday: Decreasing clouds. High 90, Low 76.

WB: Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 87, Low 76.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 88, Low 77.

WN: Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 88, Low 75.
Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 90, Low 75.

FIO: Wednesday: Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 89, Low 76.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy until afternoon. High 92, Low 76.

Here we see just some high clouds over southern TX, meanwhile far western TX/eastern NM continues to see some bright cloudtops, indicative of thunderstorms continuing to affect the area.

Fargo, North Dakota

Let’s keep up our good run of posting with a look to the Dakotas for a forecast.

At 953PM, CT, Fargo was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees with clear skies.  A weak disturbance at the northern periphery of a stronger low in the Front Range was producing light rain over south central North Dakota, but it will carry well south of Fargo, which will enjoy clear skies overnight, with a few passing high clouds.
The trough responsible for the rain and storms in the southern Plains will shift to the east, leaving an upper level pattern vacuum. This will be filled by surface high pressure in the Dakotas, which will be supplemented by a developing ridge that won’t move into the area until late on Thursday.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 66, Low 48
Thursday – Sunny, High 67, Low 41

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 66, Low 48
Thursday – A mainly sunny sky. High 58, Low 40

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sun High 68, Low 48
Thursday – Periods of clouds and sunshine High 67, Low 39

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 68, Low 49
Thursday – Sunny, High 69, Low 41

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the morning then clearing. High 67, Low 49
Thursday – Sunny, High 67, Low 40

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 68, Low 48
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 41

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy until afternoon. High 72, Low 50
Thursday – Clear throughout the day. High 70, Low 42

Here is a look at the satellite, showing some high clouds in North Dakota. Radar shows a lot more rain than is actually falling in North Dakota, which is why you get this and not the radar.  It’s misleading!

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