Mellow in SoCal

Our forecast for Riverside called for more hot air, despite the fact that we are reaching the end of October. Temperatures were warm, but only managed to hit the mid 80s, which was a hair cooler than the forecast suggested, but that is a move in the right direction for a spot that has just been too warm lately. At long last, Victoria-Weather finally came through with another forecast win.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 84, Low 55
Thursday – High 86, Low 55

Grade: A-D

St. Cloud, Minnesota

We’re back! Let’s hope this goes better than the last time we were here.

At 953AM, CT, Saint Cloud was reporting a temperature of 43 degrees with light rain. The remnants to Hurricane Willa were reconstituting as a subtropical area of low pressure slicing through the Ohio Valley. A lingering inverted trough was responsible for the light rain in central Minnesota, though it had more to offer closer to the Wisconsin, and St. Cloud was at the western edge of the rain for the time being. 
A shallow jet ridge is nosing into the region, promising more stability and a bit warmer air, however before that can happen, the nose of the jet ridge is going to enhance the inverted trough, and lead to a bit more instability. Expect another cloudy, drizzly day on Saturday, with an intensification of the showers overnight into the wee hours of Sunday morning. With a bit of independent organization, the low pressure entity in the Upper Midwest will take off swiftly for the eastern Great Lakes, with more sun and warmer air to follow into Minnesota shortly thereafter. 
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with some late showers, High 55, Low 39
Sunday – Early light rain, then clearing and warmer, High 56, Low 40

TWC: Tomorrow =- Mostly cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon (late rain) High 52, low 40
Sunday – Partly to mostly cloudy. High 53, low 40

AW: Tomorrow =- Mainly cloudy; milder (late rain) High 54, Low 39
Sunday – Windy in the morning; considerable cloudiness (early rain) High 52, Low 42

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers after 4pm. Areas of fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy high 54, Low 43
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny (early rain) High 54, Low 42

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning then mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain in the afternoon, High 53, Low 41
Sunday – Mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance for rain in the morning. High 50, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 52, Low 41
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 50, Low 40

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 53, low 43
Sunday – Mostly cloudy until afternoon and breezy starting overnight, continuing until afternoonHigh 52, Low 41

So less warm, and less rain than I had in the forecast, generally from everyone across the board. I like the way my forecast looks, though, so hopefully it bears out. Here is the morning radar, with showers just to the south.

Buffalo, New York

Today we take a look at what’s going on in Buffalo! Often a target for Lake Effect snows, it doesn’t seem like it’s quite the season for such shenanigans just yet, but let’s see what the start of the weekend looks like for them! 

At 954pm EDT, the temperature at Buffalo, NY was 39 degrees under overcast skies. An area of high pressure over the Northeast is keeping the area dry today with rather pleasant Fall conditions. Cloudy skies are anticipated throughout the day Friday in advance of an approaching storm system lifting up from the Southeast. By the time it makes it to the Northeast on Saturday, it’s expected to become a good ol’ fashioned nor’easter. Not really cold enough for there to be widespread snows, but just lots of rain for much of the region. Rain will move in during the very early morning hours on Saturday and last throughout the day as a weak lobe of low pressure on the backside of this system will keep the rain in the area until early Sunday. But hey, no snow just yet!

Friday: Increasing clouds, late night rain showers. High 52, Low 36.
Saturday: Rain throughout the day. High 47, Low 41.

TWC: Friday: Cloudy. High 53, Low 37.
Saturday: Rain. High 43, Low 40.

AW: Friday: Mostly cloudy. High 53, Low 37.
Saturday: Rain and drizzle in the afternoon. High 45, Low 41.

NWS: Friday: Mostly cloudy. High 50, Low 36.
Saturday: Rain. High 47, Low 41.

WB: Friday: Mostly cloudy. High 51, Low 38.
Saturday: Rain. High 42, Low 40.

WN: Friday: Mostly cloudy. High 50, Low 36.
Saturday: cloudy with light rain. High 47, Low 41.

FIO: Friday: Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 53, Low 36.
Saturday: Rain starting in morning, continues through the day. High 44, Low 40.

Some layered clouds continue to stream over the area, so while there won’t be much sun on Friday, the rain will take a while to get there

The Odessa Odyssey

Never underestimate a clear sky in west Texas. It was fairly clear in Odessa on Monday, as the streams of light rain showers steered clear of our forecast site as the work week began, and temperatures were well above the consensus forecasts.. Sunday was a little bit more solemn, with some spits of rain here and there that not many outlets were entirely prepared for. Accuweather had the only perfect forecast in terms of precipitation, but hey were outdone by the National Weather Service and their shadows at WeatherNation, who knew to expect a temperature spike with the sun shining on Odessa.
Actuals: Sunday – Rain reported, not measured, High 64, Low 48
Monday – High 70, Low 46

Grade: B-D

Binghamton, New York to Buffalo, New York

Today we embark on a day trip westward across the great state of New York! What fun awaits us on your daytime journey? Let’s take a look!

High pressure is camping out over the Northeast, however, a storm system is working its way up from the Southeast. Overcast skies are expected to remain throughout the day and rain showers are expected to make their way into the state. However, with our trip only taking 3-4 hours, we’ll comfortably make it into Buffalo before rain starts in the late evening hours.

Supertyphoon Yutu slams Saipan

Saipan is the primary island in the Northern Marianas Islands, a US territory in the western Pacific. It is near Guam, and was clobbered by the strongest tropical storm of the year. While Michael launched 155mph winds at the Florida Panhandle, Saipan saw winds of 185mph. 

The Coast Guard is currently assessing the situation in the Northern Marianas, but they will undoubtedly need some time to recover from this disaster. If there is any good news, it is that the Northern Marianas are home to a large military presence, and much of the population is transient, so permanent abodes aren’t necessarily destroyed for as many people as it could be. Still, stay tuned to this news story, because the western Pacific islands are already isolated, and this storm will only make them moreso. Help is likely to be needed. 

Better luck next time

Boy, it’s a good thing we have another forecast for St. Cloud coming up soon. I think that, to a person, we are looking forward to having another crack at this forecast. Temperatures were both to hot and too cold for our outlets. Temperatures on Friday, the 19th were able to clamber all the way up to 63, which was a handful of degrees warmer than anyone thought. Then under clear skies the temperatures kept dropping on Saturday evening, falling all the way to 23 degrees, which was 8-12 degrees cooler than folks expected then as well. decided against precipitation and as a result had a narrow victory.
Actuals: Friday – High 63, Low 45
Saturday – High 46, Low 23

Grade C-D

Riverside, California

Riverside is named as such because it lies on the south side of the Santa Ana River, in case you, like me, were incredibly curious about the etymology of the name. There is a river! 

At 1058AM, PT, Riverside was reporting a temperature of 67 degrees with mostly sunny skies. There was some valley haze, particularly around Ontario, but the LA Basin was otherwise in good shape. The marine layer was evident on satellite, with a thick cloud deck observed south of Point Conception.
Hurricane Willa is going to make her landfall near Mazatlan tonight, and through the period will work to pull any moisture away from the west coast as she deteriorates and slides towards Texas. Expect an ease to the marine layer off the coast, and an elimination to the morning haze, at least through Wednesday. Sunny skies will continue inland through Thursday as well.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 86, Low 56
Thursday – High 88, Low 55

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky High 87, Low 57
Thursday – Sunny skies. High 88, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny; warm High 87. Low 58
Thursday – Plenty of sunshine; very warm High 89, Low 57

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 84, low 60
Thursday – Sunny High 87, Low 58

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 86, Low 57
Thursday – Sunny, High 87, Low 57

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 60
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 87, Low 58

FIO Tomorrow – Partly cloudy until afternoon. High 86, Low 60
Thursday – Clear throughout the day. High 91, Low 62

Sunshine and warmth. Soak up these forecasts while you can!

Coming soon…

October is approaching it’s end, and winter is coming very soon. The eastern part of the country, particularly in the Great Lakes, has already been set to by snow showers. Will we get a brief reprieve in the coming weeks, or is more wintry weather forthcoming? 

St. Cloud, Minnesota
Road Trip from Morristown, Tennessee to St. Cloud

Road Trip from Lexington, Kentucky to Sherman, Texas

Harrisburg, Pennsylvania

Odessa, Texas

It’s a very quiet pattern across the country, except the lower Mississippi Valley. Does any of that wet weather spread over towards west Texas? Only one good way to find out.

At 953AM, CT, Odessa was reporting a temperature of 60 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. High pressure over the center of the country stretched its southwestern component to west Texas, though the anti-cyclonic flow was pulling the upper level moisture into the region, which was contributing to the clouds over Odessa this morning, as well as a few showers closer to I-10.
 One area to monitor will be the tropics. With high pressure likely to remain in place over the center of the country through Monday, the continued east to west flow through Texas will work to incorporate tropical moisture into the region. Tropical Storm Willa in the Pacific is expected to become a hurricane over the next few hours, and will aid in the consolidation of wet weather moving through south Texas as it flows towards Willa. It’s unlikely that much, if any rain can reach Odessa through Monday evening, but it will mean more clouds through the forecast period.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 63, Low 45
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 64, Low 47

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy High 61, Low 49
Monday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 67, Low 48

AW: Tomorrow – Rather cloudy, a passing shower or two High 63, Low 50
Monday – Times of clouds and sun High 64, Low 49

NWS: Tomorrow – Isolated showers. Mostly cloudy, High 65, Low 48
Monday – Isolated showers. Mostly cloudy, High 68, Low 49

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. High 60, Low 49
Monday – Mostly cloudy with isolated showers, High 65, Low 48

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with isolated showers, High 65, Low 48
Monday – High 68, Low 49

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 59, low 47
Monday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 59, Lo2 46

The ridge in the center of the country is going to be really good for the Ohio Valley, but it will be a bit more interesting on the flanks of that ridge. Here is the radar with some showers over Fort Stockton and Pecos.

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