Scranton, Pennsylvania

Let’s see about the weather in northeastern Pennsylvania tonight. It’s been warm and wet for the last several weeks. Will it continue?

At 1254AM, ET, Scranton was reporting a temperature of 29 degrees with overcast skies. Flurries were falling as nearby as Allentown, but the swath of heavy snow is pressing to the east and out of eastern Pennsylvania. A vast area of low pressure lies over the southern part of Hudson Bay, and the heavy snow represents the leading edge of the disturbance.
The upper level trough parenting this low will generate an undercutting surface low over the Great Lakes throughout the day Tuesday. This refocused feature will accelerate and swing through New England on Wednesday, but Tuesday does appear as though it will be filled with light snow and blustery winds.
Tomorrow – Rain snow mix, increasingly windy, High 43, Low 26
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, with an early mix, with temperatures dropping through the day, High 37, Low 29

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower.  High 45, Low 29
Wednesday – Cloudy skies. Windy during the morning (morning rain). High 42, Low 30

AW: Tomorrow – Milder; considerable cloudiness, then times of clouds and sun, a shower in the area late in the day High 46, Low 31
Wednesday – Cloudy, windy; a few stray afternoon snowflakes High 42, Low 29

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, High 45, Low 28
Wednesday – A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, High 39, Low 26

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers and freezing rain in the morning, then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. High 42, Low 26
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers, High 41, Low 30

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 46, Low 30
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with chance of light wintry mix, High 41, Low 35

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 46, Low 28
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 44, Low 29

I’m not sure we’re going to see temperatures spike quite as warm as many outlets seem to think on Tuesday. Too many clouds, too much terrain. I’m always wrong in the mountains. Here is a look at the radar, with a whole lot of rain headed for the coast.

Starting 2019 strong

The first forecast of the year was for Lima, Ohio, which was getting winged by a strong spring like system that was sliding from the Lower Mississippi Valley towards New England. Lima ducked any wet weather, all while hitting temperatures that were nearly perfectly forecast by Victoria-Weather. In fact, they were perfectly forecast on Saturday. It was a solid start to the new year.
Actuals: Saturday, High 48, Low 30
Sunday – High 43, Low 33

Grade: A-C

Hectic weather paying dividends

It’s been pretty rainy along the west coast so far in 2019, with heavy snow in the western mountain ranges, from the Rockies to the Sierras. The heaviest round is likely to come Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, and will overwhelm travel along the coast, and will perhaps lead to flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas that have recently seen wildfires.

The payoff will come in the spring. In addition to the rain, which is already alleviating the persistent drought that has been seen in southern California, but the successive rounds of wet weather this month, and the forecast for a wet late winter suggest that the drought relief will be more widespread than just San Diego County. 

A huge part of the relief is going to come in spring when the mountain snows melt and fill rivers and streams that feed agriculture, particularly in California. 

These rain clouds are definitely the kind that come with a silver lining. 

Pueblo, Colorado

Time for a swing to the High Plains to see what, exactly, we can expect in Pueblo.

At 253PM, MT, Pueblo was reporting a temperature of 61 degrees with clear skies. A trough was developing in the lee of the Rockies, but the inflow had already developed as far to the east as the Mississippi Valley, with a broad dry slot indicative of a mature cyclone already set up over the High Plains.
A broad but low amplitude trough over the Pacific Northwest is responsible for the development in the Canadian Prairies and inducing the lee troughing over eastern Colorado. It will continue to progress to the east, with some mountain snows continuing in the Colorado Rockies through tomorrow. The wave will move into the Plains by Tuesday morning, with the mountain snow ending west of Pueblo, and warmer air beginning with a stiff westerly downslope.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 62, Low 25
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 48, Low 23

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies, High 58, Low 28
Tuesday – Mainly sunny. High 49, Low 23

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sunshine; breezy High 58, Low 28
Tuesday – Mostly sunny High 48, Low 23

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 57, Low 27
Tuesday – Sunny High 48, Low 22

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 54, Low 31
Tuesday – Sunny High 45, Low 27

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny High 61, Low 26
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 24

FIO: Tomorrow – Windy starting in the morning, continuing until evening. High 56, Low 28
Tuesday – Partly cloudy until morning. High 49, Low 25

Since the system I referenced throughout the forecast is based in  Canada,  so I used the Environment Canada satellite image. Pretty sweet, huh?

Starting in San Diego

The first verification of the new year is actually for the last forecast of the old year. Thanks to a cranky baby, I worked on the forecast in the very wee hours of New Year’s Eve, but fortunately, the forecast was for San Diego which is, under most circumstances, a softball forecast. Indeed, that was the case for the first couple of days this year (though things are surely a bit more challenging for forecasters tonight), and the Weather Service and Weatherbug snatched top notch forecasts for the chilly but dry couple of days in the town that calls itself America’s Finest City. 
Actuals: Tuesday, High 61, Low 45
Wednesday – High 62, Low 41

Grade A – C

Coming soon…

As we really sink our teeth into the new year, we’re going to really sink our teeth into many forecasts.

Scranton, Pennsylvania

San Luis Obispo, Califonia

Corpus Christi, Texas

Lawrence, Kansas
Road trip from Corpus Christi to Lawence

Waco, Texas

Lima, Ohio

It’s Friday, it’s time for the weekend, and it’s time for my first forecast of the year! We’re going to Lima, Ohio, a nice Midwestern spot for the first stop of the year.

At 1253AM, ET, Lima was reporting a temperature of 42 degrees with sunny skies. Most of the state of Ohio was in the embrace of warm high pressure, however a large system in the southeast could be seen in the southeastern US, with the northern reach of clouds brushing the Ohio River. The system is expected to continue towards New England through the night tonight, but there is consensus that the precipitation will not extend northeast to Lima.; 
An overriding ridge will become the predominant feature aloft, further reinforcing the warm up in Lima over the weekend and bringing out a vast dome of high pressure, stretching from the Gulf to Canada. It’s going to be a sunny weekend in Lima, with unseasonably warm temperatures, with a little bit of morning fog possible if there is anything on the ground available to be evaporated.
Tomorrow – Early clouds, becoming sunny, High 48, Low 30
Sunday – Sunny, High 44, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies.High 46, Low 29
Sunday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 37, Low 30

AW: Tomorow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 45, Low 30
Sunday – Partly sunny High 40, Low 31

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 47, Low 30
Sunday – Partly sunny, High 40, Low 32

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 44, Low 31
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 39, Low 33

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy, High 47, Low 30
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 40, Low 32

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy overnight. High 46, Low 31
Sunday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 40, Low 30

Here is a look at the current satellite (about 10 hours after the original forecast) showing just how close those clouds are coming to Lima tonight. Nothing to really worry about though!

Forecaster of the Year

We’re on to 2019, but there is one last bit of 2018’s business to consider: The forecaster of the year award! Some years, there is some competition as the year comes to a close, but 2018 was not one of them. Strong, steady work throughout the year meant that The Weather Channel locked things up for themselves back in autumn. Congratulations to The Weather Channel, and thank you for spending another year with Victoria-Weather!

Frigid Start to 2019

Happy New Year everybody! I hope you all enjoyed a great time bringing in the new year last night, whether it be at a crazy party or just laying low at home. To those who stumbled outside into the world this morning to get back home, like yours truly, you were met by something other than blinding sunlight… some bonechilling cold. Strong high pressure took over much of the Central US while a quick moving low pressure system shifted through the Northeast/New England last night, bringing plenty of rain to Times Square as the ball dropped. Much of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest saw sub-zero temperatures and wind chills that plunged well below -30, even to -50 in some spots! Right now, Sub-zero temperatures are found throughout the northern 2/3 of MN and far northern WI, with temperatures already down to -21 at Hibbing, MN. Single-digit temperatures are found all the way down to western KS with sub-zero temps found over eastern CO down into NM. Temperatures will be on the rebound by Thursday, but Wednesday morning will still bring a chill to the lungs as people head out for the 1st work day of the year

San Diego, California

Good morning! Did you know that I have 6 month old twins? Let that be all the explanation you need for my being up and forecasting at 5AM local time. For context, there is a baby (finally) asleep on my chest as I forecast.

At 2AM, PT, San Diego was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A disturbance at the base of a sharp trough over the Great Basin was producing a few clouds in the area, but the aggressive offshore flow at the surface and aloft was doing a great job of decimating the marine layer.
The surface feature will pull clearer air into San Diego by mid-morning on Tuesday, while the weakening inflow to the jet will mean the disturbed weather will not be reinforced, but neither will the marine layer return.
Tomorrow – Morning clouds, the mostly sunny, High 64, Low 44
Wednesday – Sunny High 62, Low 42

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny High 61, Low 43
Wednesday – Sunny High 61, Low 41

AW: Tomorrow – Sunshine High 63, Low 41
Wednesday – Plenty of sunshine High 62, Low 38

NWS: Tomorow – Sunny High 62, Low 45
Wednesday – Sunny High 63, Low 41

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 59, Low 41
Wednesday – Sunny High 60, Low 37

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny High 62, Low 45
Wednesday – Sunny High 63, Low 41

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy until morning. High 58, Low 43
Wednesday – Clear throughout the day. High 57, Low 41

You know, most residents of San Diego would think this to be a bummer of a forecast, as those low temperatures may flirt with record territory, especially if Weatherbug gets their way. Alas, even a bad forecast in San Diego is pretty good. Happy New Year, everyone! 

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