2:58PM – As a result of going away from the county based warning system to a “polygon” system, but also still using counties to some degree, we have had these weird nested warnings on our radar displays now for a some time. No, Georgia, you aren’t in a double warning because the storms are so bad, you are in a double warning because geospatial mapping isn’t as easy as anyone thinks it should be.
10:44PM: It is quarter to 11 on June 9th, and there is finally no rain in the Twin Cities area. Does this mean warmer temperatures? And will the departure of the persistent north wind, does that means less smoke? Probably! I hope!
It wasn’t a busy month for forecasts for us, but there was still plenty to talk about. Tornado season leads to hurricane season, and as a result, there is always a little bit of extra attention on the weather this time of year, so even if we didn’t get a high volume of forecasts, their success was a little bit weightier. The beleaguered National Weather Service did come through with the top forecasts for the month.
Dalton is an interesting place for a forecast visit. It is so close to the commercial weather Mecca that is Atlanta, and yet so far. Dalton is in the higher terrain of northwest Georgia, which can lead to some interesting weather perturbations that are dissimilar even to the spots just down the road.
At 1053AM, ET, Dalton was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with overcast skies. A sharp upper level ridge was tilted across New England, which was allowing for some clean radars for the moment, however the pattern aloft is quite active, including a sharp trough over the Northern Plains, and of more local concern, a weak lower level short wave over the eastern Gulf. The strength of the upper trough and the moisture attendant with the weak Gulf low will interact to bring clouds and moisture north into the Peach State. The Gulf trough is going to weaken as it drifts ashore, and while clouds are expected in Dalton both Wednesday and Thursday, the precipitation associated with those clouds will be light. Aloft, the northern jet is going to phase down and reconstitute north of the Canadian border, robbing the area of conflicting air masses, which will ultimately make the next two days fairly dull and dreary. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with spots of drizzle, High 83, low 66 Thursday – Light rain possible early, then mostly cloudy, High 85, Low 64
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. High 86, Low 66 Thursday – Partly cloudy. High 87, Low 67
AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with plenty of sun High 84, Low 65 Thursday – Humid with plenty of sun High 85, Low 67
NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after 4pm. Mostly sunny High 85, Low 66 Thursday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny High 86, Low 66
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 83, Low 67 Thursday – Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the morning then a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon High 86, Low 68
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 87, Low 66 Thursday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers and isolated storms, High 86, low 66
CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 85 Low 64 Thursday – Sunny, High 84, Low 65
The satellite is pretty clean right now, and it won’t be real ugly later, but it will certainly be different.
In NFL circles, Green Bay is known as the “Frozen Tundra”. Something tells me that, rolling into June, that name isn’t as apt.
At 456PM, CT, Green Bay was in reporting rain. There were spotty showers and thunderstorms throughout the region, including a few that have been severe with large hail. A broad area of low pressure centered over Eastern Canada is trailing a few different frontal and post frontal bands. There is severe weather s a result of this system on the east coast, and the weather in Eastern Wisconsin is the most significant post frontal activity. The disorganized upper level pattern surrounding the trough is going to coalesce as a jet trough overnight into tomorrow morning. This will make the overall pattern more transient. Lingering shower activity will wrap up this evening, and tomorrow will be dry as a weak ridge enters the picture. The next feature will be more appropriately centered for this time of year, and will emerge from the Canadian Prairies. By Sunday afternoon, America’s Dairyland will be within the warm sector of this feature, with some isolated showers and storms popping up late in the day over central Wisconsin, but the Lake cooled air should keep them away from Green Bay. Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 71, Low 46 Sunday – Mostly sunny, warmer with isolated clouds late, High 76, Low 43
TWC: Tomorrow -Sunny skies. High 73, Low 47 Sunday – Sunny. High 77, Low 44
AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and nice; wildfire smoke will cause the sky to be hazy High 73, Low 47 Sunday – Hazy sunshine and warm; smoke from Canadian wildfires will obscure the sky High 79, Low 44
NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of smoke after 4pm. Sunny, High 69, Low 45 Sunday – Sunny, High 75, Low 43
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. Areas of smoke in the afternoon High 70, Low 48 Sunday – Sunny. High 74, Low 46
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 45 Sunday – Sunny, High 75, Low 43
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 47 Sunday – Sunny, High 79. Low 42
For more on that smoke, take a look at the WBAY weather forecast. For more on the storms this afternoon, check out the radar loop below. For more on the forecast from Clime tomorrow, I can’t help you.
3:51PM: If you are anything like me, you will take advantage of the NWS snowfall probability forecasts in any pending snow fall scenario. Now, the NWS has similar outlooks for rainfall, which is great for farmers and gardeners, and is available here. Update the final three letters of the URL to your NWS office to see a map for where you live.
10:47PM: This spring has remained fairly active. There have certainly been the fair share of severe storms, but also, east of the Rockies has been on the rainy side of average for a lot of places. At least in places like western Nebraska, which has been drier, there is an ongoing forecast for rain for the next couple of days.
10:15pm – The big slow moving blob of low pressure in the Great Lakes is, as noted, producing severe weather persistently in the southern US is also producing some cool weather in the Upper Midwest, and frequent spats of showers with occasional thunderstorms. This is more typical of April than late May. Things should be turning over in the next couple of weeks, however.
The last post here was about the devastating tornadoes in St. Louis and Kentucky in the middle of the month on May 15th. I noted that it wasn’t a classic outbreak. Though there was quite a bit of severe weather, it wasn’t overwhelmed by multiple tornadic supercells. The tornadoes that occurred were devastating, but they weren’t particularly widespread.
In the 11 days, including today, since that terrible day, only one day has had little severe weather, the 21st which saw 20 severe reports (most from western Pennsylvania, where there were some small tornadoes, ironically) versus hundreds of severe reports on all of the other days. What’s more, is that there has been a predilection for storms in the south central US (Texas to Alabama, approximately). There hasn’t really been a let up.
The 17th, 18th and 19th were the busiest of those days, with several hundred reports from storms, including wind, hail and tornadoes. The 17th and 19th also featured a few injuries as the result of stronger storms. The organized severe weather has since started to focus on hail and particularly strong winds in the last few days, and has increasingly targeted the lower Mississippi Valley, as opposed to the High Plains.
This is because of an upper level gyre centered over the Great Lakes that has become disconnected from the main jet stream. Flow through the gyre is allowing for weak shortwaved redevelopment at the surface, moving from the Red River Valley to the Lower Mississippi Valley before dissipating and starting over the next day. This gyre is going to recycle about 4 more times, meaning about 4 more days of severe weather from Texas to the Carolinas. By the weekend, it will fold into the jet structure and start moving east and out of the southern US for the weekend.
The transitional season of spring has allowed this gyre to keep pumping severe weather into the region, because the Gulf keeps supplying fuel to the fire. However with the gyre having a tough time moving, the weather has strafed the same ground over and over, and has robbed it of it’s potency since the clash of air masses has been blunted, and the lines between warm and cold air were increasingly blurred. Still, it has been severe couple of weeks, even if not in the news cycle consuming fashion of a typical spring outbreak.
Tornadoes last weekend, particularly those in St. Louis and London, Kentucky resulted in the largest weather loss of life thus far in the severe weather season. Hearts break for all those affected by these storms, and they are stirring a greater conversation around the country about forecasting and disaster relief, but the storms also point back to something we always need to be reminded of.
The strength and number of tornadoes is less impactful than where the tornadoes strike. While these have been the most deadly days of the 2025 tornado season, they haven’t been the days with the most twisters. Despite the number of deaths and the extensive damage, these storms weren’t the strongest storms. In St. Louis, the tornado was an EF-3, while the one in Kentucky was an EF-4. Strong, certainly, but there have been stronger.
And the mode through which these storms occurred was less of he isolated supercells that we se in he Plains, like we have seen in Moore or Greensburg, but rather embedded within broader storm systems. Supercells, no less, but hardly the classic radar signature. Most importantly, had this storm not hit St. Louis and London, I’m not even sure these storms would necessarily be a “tornado outbreak”.
But of crucial importance was the fact that these storms DID hit St. Louis and London, and will thus be remembered for the destructive incidents that they are. A tornado is a spectacle that people go out of their way to observe until the time it moves through a densely populated city, or a mountain community with an out of service weather radio network. Storms can be strong or numerous, but they don’t really become nightmares until they find humanity.
For those that may not recall, this past week in the mid-Atlantic has been a fairly miserable one by May standards. Temperatures were cool, it has been rainy and there was the looming specter of severe weather. Before all that got underway, there was a forecast for Vineland, New Jersey. It was a warm end to the weekend, with the beginning of the week preparing south Jersey for the looming gloom. The top spot belonged to Victoria-Weather, despite being the only outlet to have rain in the forecast, only to have it not materialize Actuals: May 11th, High 81, Low 48 May 12th, High 78, Low 51
