Fresno, California

It’s been a while since I’ve made a forecast for California. I missed out on their wacky weather last month, but recently, it’s been warm and wonderful. Let’s see if we can get the one w adjective they really need – wet.

At 1053PM, PT, Fresno was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with fair skies. The entirety of the central valley was seeing clear skies, but dew points in the mid 50s were leading to fog and haze, which was already emerging as far north as Visalia.
An upper level ridge is only going to get stronger along the West Coast as an undercutting jet streak along the Mexican border dissipates. Expect a dry, warm weekend for the Central Valley.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, fog in the morning, High 75, Low 52
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 51

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 74, Low 50
Sunday – Sunny skies. High 75, Low 49

AW: Tomorrow – Patchy morning fog; otherwise, partly sunny High 75, Low 51
Sunday – Patchy fog in the morning; otherwise, mostly sunny High 76, Low 50

NWS: Tomorrow – Widespread haze. Mostly sunny High 75, Low 52
Sunday – Widespread haze. Sunny, High 76, Low 52

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. Haze. High 73, Low 52
Sunday – Sunny Haze, High 74, Low 51

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with haze. Hgh 75, Low 52
Sunday – Partly cloudy with haze, High 75, Low 52

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy starting overnight, continuing until evening. High 81, Low 48
Sunday – Partly cloudy starting in the evening. High 81, Low 48

I’m not sure if Fresno is forecasting for the same town as the rest of us. That’s pretty warm! Here is the fog satellite, which I am sharing, though the haze so far is pretty light.

Packing in the precip

The west coast was raked wit ha couple of systems over the last two days, and they both struck direct hits on Bellingham, with a total of over half an inch over the two day period. Temepratures didn’t have much room to maneuver, varying only 10 degrees within the 48 hour period, owing to the persistent cloud cover. The lack of temperature fluctuation meant there was a logjam at the top of the leaderboard, with five outlets tying for the victory. The Weather Channel, Accuweather, National Weather Service, Weatherbug and WeatherNation all had different forecasts but the same net result.
Actuals: Wednesday – .26 inches of rain High 45, Low 35
Thursday – .32 inches of rain, High 41, Low 35

Grade: B

Dothan, Alabama

Today we head off to the Deep South, someplace much warmer than VW HQ. Will they see some precip in the liquid form this weekend? Or will Spring Break start off hot and sunny?

At 1053pm CST, the temperature at Dothan, AL was 56 degrees under fair skies. A bit of high pressure continues to linger over the Southeast, but a pattern change is about to happen. There’s a ill-organized area of low pressure found pushing into the Central Plains tonight and will continue to ride the base of an upper-level trough, shifting its way into the Southeast during the early morning hours on Sunday. Some rain showers will start pushing into southeastern Alabama during the early morning hours and last until the early afternoon before continuing off to the east. Late Sunday evening should clear out precip-wise, but clouds are expected to linger. So, kind of a half-and-half weekend shaping up. Enjoy Saturday!

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 72, Low 46.
Sunday: Cloudy, morning showers expected. High 64, Low 48.

TWC: Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 72, Low 45.
Sunday: Cloudy, scattered showers. High 63, Low 50.

AW: Saturday: Thickening clouds. High 71, Low 46.
Sunday: Cooler with showers around. High 63, Low 50.

NWS: Saturday: Sunny, increasing clouds late. High 71, Low 46.
Sunday: Rain likely in morning, then decreasing by evening. High 63, Low 51.

WB: Saturday: Sunny. High 71, Low 46.
Sunday: Showers expected. High 63, Low 52.

WN: Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 72, Low 46.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with rain likely. High 63, Low 51.

FIO: Saturday: Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon. High 76, Low 46.
Sunday: Light rain starting in the afternoon. High 63, Low 50.

Southeastern AL is pretty quiet today, while rain showers and some thunderstorms continue to stir over the far Western GOM. Eventually it will make its way to Dothan, but first, a nice start to the weekend!

Line of thunderstorms barreling through the Tennessee Valley

Last night when we were looking at the forecast for Florence, I note that the NAM had the Tennessee Valley going from nothing to a whole lot in a very short amount of time. The NAM was right.

This line of thunderstorms is going to continue through the early morning, with Memphis in immediate danger and Huntsville the next two cities in danger. There is some development back in Arkansas, but it looks like Little Rock will be spared the bow echoes bearing down its neighbors to the east.

The great news is, this system will clear up quickly, but for the time being, bow echoes cover a lot of territory, and trees may come down and power may be lost.  Stay awake if you are in the area until the initial line has gone through.

Weather Wayback… New Year, new weather

On January First, we had our first forecast of the year, in the remote northern outpost of Lewiston, Idaho. Lewiston is in the mountains, and Anthony was almost certainly overserved the day before the forecast, Victoria-Weather, just like the other outlets around us, didn’t come out to a very good start in 2017. Temperatures were significantly warmer than expected, with highs in the upper 20s, with lows also notably warmer than anticipated. The forecast was a bust all the way around, but the warmest outlet, Forecast.io, had the first good forecast of the year.
Actuals: January 2nd – High 28, Low 21
January 3rd – High 27, Low 14

Grade C-F

Florence, South Carolina

Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 36
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 77, Low 49

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny – High 78, Low 39
Friday – Cloudy early, becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 78, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy early, becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 76, Low 42
Friday – A morning shower in spots; otherwise, breezy and very warm with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 78, Low 51

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 41
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 80, Low 48

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 43
Friday  – Partly cloudy, High 76, Low 53

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 41
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 81, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 79, Low 40
Friday – Drizzle in the morning. High 76, Low 51

FIO going off the reservation with their rain and lower temperatures. I’m much chillier on tonight’s forecast. We’ll see how it all works out!

Bellingham, Washington

Good evening. Let’s head to the west coast and knock out a forecast, shall we?

At 853PM, PT, Bellingham was reporting a temperature of 41 degrees with overcast skies. There was light rain being reported at Whidbey Island to the south, and snow in the Cascades of British Columbia and Washington, where there is a winter storm warning in effect.  An area of low pressure centered near Sitka, Alaska is dangling the offending cold front along the west coast past the Olympic Peninsula.
The central pressure will remain stalled over the Alaska Panhandle, and moisture will stall along the coast, with overcast conditions around Bellingham and continued snow in the mountains. A vigorous jet streak will slide into the Pacific Northwest and cause moisture to flare up tomorrow evening and into the overnight, with some clearing for most of the day Thursday. Some of the precipitation on Wednesday will fall as wet snow.The next system forming in the North Pacific looks to take a direct shot at the Bellingham area on Friday. By Thursday evening, the leading edge of rainfall and wind will be arriving in town, with heavy rain and even some embedded thunder before midnight.
Tomorrow – Scattered rain/snow, High 44, Low 36
Thursday – Rain with isolated thunderstorms, High 45, Low 34

TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast with rain showers at times. High 44, Low 37
Thursday – Cloudy skies with periods of light rain later in the day. High 44, Low 35

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy with occasional rain followed by a steadier rain, High 43, Low 35
Thursday – Chilly with rain at times High 45, Low 35

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain and snow showers likely before 10am, then rain likely. Mostly cloudy, High 43, Low 36
Thursday – A slight chance of rain and snow before 10am, then rain likely. Mostly cloudy High 44, Low 35

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A chance for rain and snow showers in the morning, then a chance of rain and snow in the afternoon. High 41, Low, 35
Thursday – Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain and snow in the morning, then a slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Snow level near sea level in the morning. High 42, Low 34

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with light rain, High 43, Low 36
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with light wintry mix likely, High 43, Low 36

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain starting in the morning. High 41, Low  36
Thursday – Light rain starting in the morning, continuing until evening. High 45, Low 35

So there you have it. Pretty dreary for Bellingham. We can see rain on radar already south of Bellingham. More to come!

Spring warmth precedes spring rain

Of course, according to the solar calendar, we are still in the midst of winter in Columbia, Missouri, but with temperatures climbing into the low 70s on Saturday, you would be forgiven for thinking we had skipped ahead to spring. The thunderstorms that came a day after our forecast definitely seemed like spring, with severe wind, hail and isolated tornadoes. Our forecast was only for the good times, though, and the Weather Service had the top forecast. I forgot to enter FIO’s forecast, and gave them the average numbers for the day. It turns out, that tied the NWS, so I will give them a co-share of the championship.
Actuals: Saturday – High 71, Low 39
Sunday – High 64, Low 53

Grade: B-D

Tornadoes in Minnesota and Snow in San Francisco

This evening we are witnessing a sizable severe weather outbreak, stretching from the Upper Midwest south to the Ozarks. This is extremely early for a tornado outbreak, especially as far north as Minnesota and Wisconsin. There is an elongated cold front now extended to central Oklahoma. There was a tornado north of Minneapolis that will go down as the earliest Minnesota twister on record when confirmed, and there have been numerous tornado reports all the way southwest to eastern Kansas.

Earlier in the system’s lifespan, it brought cold air south to the Bay area. Yesterday, Mount Diablo, east of San Francisco, saw it’s peaks capped with snow, while the city itself saw small hail, that the residents unaccustomed to such weather believed was snow. It was not, but still quite the phenomenon for San Francisco.

We are left with pretty pictures, such as the one from the San Francisco Gate, above, to enjoy the snow. It is still dark in Zimmerman, Minnesota, Seymour, Iowa and Carrollton, Missouri, so the entire picture of the tornado damage is yet to be developed.

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