Record breaking cold comes to the northeast

If you are waking up this morning in New York or New England and are reading this today, you likely already know this: it’s cold out there! Here is a look at the forecast morning lows across the region:

The only thing keeping Boston, New York and Philadelphia in the 20s is proximity to the coast and the urban heat island effect. Inland, temperatures are barely in double digits in central New York or Pennsylvania.

If this seems cold to you, it’s not just because this is the first bout of cold weather for the season, but it’s also the earliest it’s ever been this cold in places like New York. It’s going to be a record low, and the lowest temperature ever seen this early in the year in New York City! If you aren’t a fan of the cold, then I grant you the right to complain about this outbreak of cold. No, it isn’t supposed to be this cold this time of year!

Chico dips its toes into fall

Temperatures in Chico started a slow descent towards winter over the past couple of days. After a cold front moved through northern California, temperatures failed to get out of the 50s for the next two days. The cooler temperatures were certainly autumnal, but the lack of rain in the area, despite a somewhat active pattern is distinctly Californian. The Weather Channel was in a three way tie for the lead when looking solely at temperatures, but they skyrocketed to the lead when they withheld rain from the forecast
Actuals:  Sunday – High 57, Low 44
Monday – High 59, Low 42

Grade: A-B

Santa Barbara, California

We’re on the way to the beach in southern California, which sounds like an altogether wonderful idea.

At 953PM, PT, Santa Barbara was reporting a temperature of 54 degrees with clear skies. The entirety of southern California was seeing a sky full of stars, and satellite indicates that the marine layer is non-existent tonight.
A strong area of low pressure will be moving towards the Pacific Northwest through the day tomorrow, and arrive by late in the day. As it advances eastward, and then lingers over Washington on Friday, a steady onshore flow should bring a few clouds to the higher terrain inland from Santa Barbara, and a refreshingly cool flow to town.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 68, Low 50
Thursday – Sunny, High 68, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High 70, Low 53
Thursday – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 70, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy and pleasant High 71, Low 53
Thursday – Pleasant with periods of clouds and sun High 72, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny,  High 72, Low 56
Thursday – A 20 percent chance of rain before 10am. Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 58

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 70, Low 55
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 69, Low 55

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 56
Thursday – Psrtly cloudy with isolated showers, High 70, Low 58

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the morning. High 69, Low 58
Thursday – Partly cloudy until evening. High 69, Low 58

Temperatures are dropping much faster than guidance had indicated. My forecast reflects an anticipation of that trend continuing. A look at the satellite shows the entire lack of clouds.

Persistent overcast gives rise to inconsistent drizzle

After a cold front moved through the Joplin area late last week, clouds hung around well beyond their welcome. There was never any clearing, which was somewhat unexpected. We all knew that Friday was probably a lost cause, but the continued cloudiness on Saturday was a real downer. Temperatures were at least 5 degrees off the most conservative estimates, and some of those clouds even led to a bit of drizzle mid-day on Saturday, which was almost entirely unexpected. Accuweather wasn’t quite as on their heels as other outlets, and picked up on that precipitation forecast, but their temperatures were far enough off, that the best they could do was a tie with The Weather Channel for the title in Joplin.
Actuals: Friday – High 62, Low 50
Saturday – Trace of rain, High 67, Low 49

Grade: C-D

October Forecaster of the Month

The month of October was a very busy month on the forecasting front, with 17 forecasts verified in total, which might just be a record. I think that this is, therefore, a good accounting for the meteorological skill of the top forecasters in the country, particularly given that October is a month of transition, and there were the dramatic fires out west, and an unseasonably cool shot in the Great Lakes, and a strong storm that screamed up the coast late in the month. OK, enough beating around the bush… Your October forecaster of the month is Victoria-Weather!

Joplin, Missouri to Chico, California

Let’s take a nice little trip out west. And by nice, I mean one in which we will almost certainly have to head through freshly snow covered mountain passes. The drive is going to take 3 days, with a pretty long day to wrap things up. The drive will cover 1887 miles at a pace of nearly 70mph, which will allow us to net 559 miles a day on those first two days of travel. I think we can handle this, snow and all!

 

DAY ONE (Sunday)

A cold front sneaking south through the Plains will bring some early morning drizzle and rain to eastern Kansas and western Missouri, which will be an auspicious start to what already promises to be a challenging journey. Fortunately, we will be north and west of the front by the time we hit I-70 at Salina. It will be cool and cloudy the rest of the way as high pressure settles in for a little while. We will make it into Colorado and the small town of Vona in the Plains as we prepare for the more scenic drives through the mountains.

DAY TWO (Monday)
The last day before we really lay it all on the table with a 700+ mile journey, we will contend with difficult enough weather. The city travel, in Denver and Cheyenne, will be just fine. We will pass through with little to no bother, save for the ever present risk of a traffic jam. When we reach the Elk Mountain area of Wyoming, however, we will start seeing delays of a different sort. Especially in the high terrain, don’t be surprised to see some light snow the rest of the way to Evanston, the stop for the day, with more significant bursts of snow in the mountain passes.

DAY THREE (Tuesday)
Fortunately, the snow that we see in Wyoming will be part of the last of a multi speared assault on the west coast. We will see a clear path forged ahead of us through Utah and Nevada, which have ducked any significant weather so far this season. The trek through the Sierras might still be slow as the area digs out from the first major rounds of snow in that part of the world, but we will arrive in a clearer, drier Chico than the one it has been the last couple of days.

Chico, California

Chico is the sight of the very first ever forecast on Victoria-Weather, more than a decade ago. I suspect that the weather will be a touch different than it was back in the olden days.

At 949, AM, PT, Chico was reporting overcast skies and a temperature of 54 degrees. There was light rain being reported in Susanville and more moderate rain to the southeast towards Lake Tahoe, while wind vectors indicated that the responsible boundary lay between Chico and Red Bluff. This particular wave is winding down in Chico, but will continue to bring snow to the high Sierras as a trough is angled southwest into the Pacific. A steady stream of moisture will pump into the mountains, in what is good news for the very dry Central Valley as they look forward to next spring.
An undercutting jet trough is expected to phase into the trough already influencing northern California’s weather, as a weak area of low pressure will slide into the Pacific Northwest by the end of the weekend. As the low continues to move into the Great Basin, an associated cold front will pass through the northern Valley, including a brief stop in Chico. It’s not out of the question that the city sees another bout of light rain in time for the morning rush on Monday, giving way to another dry but cloudy day to start the week.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 57, Low 44
Monday – Light rain early, then overcast, High 59, Low 46

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 57, Low 41
Monday – Mainly sunny.  High 59, Low 43

AW: Tomorrow – Mainly cloudy and cool with a couple of showers High 57, Low 42
Monday – Sunny much of the time and cool (early rain) High 59, Low 44

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 57, Low 40
Monday – Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, sunny, High 60, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 58, Low 42
Monday – Patchy fog in the morning. Mostly sunny. High 61, Low 47

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 57, Low 40
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 60, Low 40

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the morning (late rain).High 56, Low 42
Monday – Partly cloudy until morning (early rain). High 58, Low 43

Wow, everyone is all over the place on this forecast. It will be quite interesting to see how it plays out! Here is a look at the Sacramento radar, showing heavier precipitation around Lake Tahoe.

Coming Soon…

Here comes November, whether you like it or not. The forecasts will definitely start getting more interesting!

Santa Barbara, California

Road Trip from Fargo, North Dakota to Providence, Rhode Island

Medford, Oregon

Hinesville, Georgia

Joplin, Missouri

Joplin is one of those cities what will always echo in the memories of meteorologists. It was the home of one of the largest tornadoes in history, and always seems to be in the crosshairs of something ominous. Let’s hope that’s not the case tonight!

At 953PM, CT, Joplin was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with overcast skies. A cold front has moved through this evening and lies south of Branson and Rolla, but isn’t yet to West Plains or Harrison, Arkansas, and there are a few  thunderstorms remaining along the line. Chilly high pressure is on its way south into the Plains to ensure the rest of the evening will be dry.
An undercutting jet streak in the central Rockies will help stir up more trouble sooner rather than later. The pattern in the central US will be muddled, but a strong area of low pressure will be developing in the northern Rockies and northern High Plains. A resultant return flow will bring overcast and some light precipitation to the region tomorrow evening into early Saturday morning. A warmer high pressure will return to Joplin just in time for the weekend.
Tomorrow – Cloudy with some late showers, High 61, Low 48
Saturday – Sunny, High 72, Low 49

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 63, Low 50
Saturday – Cloudy skies early, followed by partial clearing. High 72, Low 49

AW: Tomorrow – Rather cloudy and cooler; an afternoon shower in places High 65, Low 51
Saturday – Mostly cloudy and warmer with a passing shower High 74, Low 49

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of drizzle before 4pm, then a slight chance of showers or drizzle after 4pm. Patchy fog before 1pm. Otherwise, cloudy, High 61, Low 52
Saturday – Partly sunny, High 78, Low 53

WB: Tomorrow – Cooler.Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog in the morrning. Slight chance of drizzle through the day. High 62, Low 52
Saturday – Warmer. Partly sunny. High 71, Low 50

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with slight chance of light drizzle, High 61, Low 52
Partly cloudy, Hgh 78, Low 53

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day and breezy starting overnight, continuing until morning. High 64, Low 53
Saturday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 71, Low 53

We’re all over the map on this forecast. The placement of clouds and how much sun can actually peak through will really affect the reliability of this forecast! Here is the radar, with showers already through town.

Philippe can’t be contained

The remnants of Philippe moved through the mid-Atlantic and brought a nice spat of rain and wind to New England and the Chesapeake. He also flared up just as he made his landfall, and became broad enough to keep clouds and rain over our forecast city of Youngstown for both the two days of our forecast period. A cold front swept through on Sunday, but more rain fell on Monday with the backwash from the deepening Nor’Easter. Only half of the outlets had rain in the forecast, but Weathebug outpaced the field on temperatures by so much that they won despite having rain only with that cold front.
Actuals: Sunday .08″ of rain, trace of snow, High 44, Low 35
Monday – .11″ of rain, High 42, Low 37

Grade: C

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