High pressure hijinks

Generally speaking, sunny days tend to have a pretty low degree of forecasting error, but for some reason, that wasn’t the case in Jackson last week. The easily identifiable  flaw was in low temperature forecasts, particularly the one on Saturday morning, where even the best forecast was 4 degrees too warm. It seems we are still trying to figure out how forecasting in real live warm temperatures works. WeatherNation and the Weather Service tied atop the leaderboard.
Actuals: Friday – High 74, Low 45
Saturrday – High 73, Low 43

Grade: B-D

Severe weather to continue Wednesday

Tuesday was the first rough weather day, in terms of widespread severe weather, in the Plains for 2018. There was a streak of severe reports through central Kansas, as well as four different super cells that appear to have produced tornadoes, two northwest of Salina in Kansas, another along the Nebraska border and a fourth south of Kearney, Nebraska. To this point, it doesn’t sound like there was much structural damage, nor any injuries or fatalities, which is obviously excellent news.

Within these storms, however, there were reports of hail reaching up to 4 inches in diameter and damaging straight line winds, suggesting the intensity and organization of this feature. Unfortunately, the set up isn’t really changing, aside from a slight shift to the southeast, bringing with it the same threat for long track, if isolated tornadoes, large hail and strong winds. The greatest threat is highlighted by the SPC in red.

The red, moderate risk contains towns like St. Joseph, Missouri, and the northern metro of Kansas City, and closely correlates to the center of low pressure for this system. Expect more general thunderstorms in the arm extended towards Michigan, but the cold front southwest through the Big Bend is more likely to produce widespread severe weather, by my estimation.

Unfortunately, the conditions that occurred on Tuesday in Kansas and Nebraska are very dangerous, and are likely to be repeated on Wednesday. On Tuesday, they occurred in sparsely populated locations, but it seems less likely that we will be so lucky on Wednesday.

Punta Gorda, Florida

As thunderstorms roll through VW HQ here, let’s take a peek at the Sunshine State and see if any storms are greeting them this fine evening!

At 1053pm EDT, the temperature at Punta Gorda, FL was 72 degrees under fair skies. Strong high pressure is controlling much of the Eastern Seaboard, keeping everywhere from Cape Cod to Cape Canaveral dry. Some isolated showers have popped up from time to time around the Miami area, as precip rides along the southern periphery of the high pressure. This activity isn’t expected to really make it across the Peninsula to the Punta Gorda area, so dry weather looks to be in store for the next couple of days! Thursday will warm up a couple of degrees as the cloud cover decreases, but still another pleasant day!

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 89, Low 62.
Thursday: Sunny and slightly warmer. High 91, Low 64.

TWC: Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 90, Low 62.
Thursday: Sunny. High 93, Low 63.

AW: Wednesday: Mostly sunny and breezy. High 91, Low 61.
Thursday: Warm with plenty of sun. High 92, Low 63.

NWS: Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. High 88, Low 64.
Thursday: Sunny. High 88, Low 67.

WB: Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 89, Low 63.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 92, Low 66.

WN: Wednesday: SITE DOWN.
Thursday: SITE DOWN.

FIO: Wednesday: Partly cloudy starting in afternoon. High 89, Low 64.
Thursday: Partly cloudy in the morning. High 91, Low 68.

Not much going on in the Southeast currently thanks to that high pressure. Clouds off the Southeast FL coastline might bring some isolated showers to Miami, but not to Punta Gorda.

Jackson, Tennessee to New Haven, Connecticut

Hey gang, let’s hit the road, shall we? We’re going to take a 2 day trip through the Appalachians and on to southern New England. The distance between the towns of Jackson and New Haven is about 1,100 miles, which we will cover at a pace of about 65mph. We’ll make day one a slightly shorter day, calling it good after about 519 miles, which might actually get us through the entire state of Tennessee!

DAY ONE (Wednesday)

High pressure is wedged into the southeastern part of the country, and will be very good to us for our drive on Wednesday, with sunshine dotting our entire journey. We will hit the Smokeys late enough in the day that the typical fog that gives the mountains their name will not be present. Wei’ll just bounce into Radford, Virginia, nary a care in the world and call it a day after a pretty nice day of travel.

DAY TWO (Thursday)
An area of low pressure moving through the Canadian Maritimes is draping a cold front through the Great Lakes, and it will weaken and drift south towards New York City and Connecticut by Thursday. We’ll run into some wet weather, perhaps around Allentown, with the threat lingering for the rest of the drive into New Haven. By that point, it will be much weaker with storms more widely scattered. An advancing system in the Plains will force the boundary to act more as a warm front, which will lead to precipitation to fall more as generalized high base shower activity. What I’m saying is, if it has to rain, it could be way worse. Enjoy steam New Haven!

New Haven, Connecticut

We’re back in Connecticut tonight, visiting the western coast of the Nutmeg State. Let’s see how spring is treating them.

At 1253AM, ET, New Haven was reporting a temperature of 46 degrees with overcast skies. A departing area of low pressure lies over New England, with some clouds winding back into the region from the northwest. There continues to be a threat for some shower activity thanks to this low, though for the time being, it is lingering further north into the Hudson Valley.
The upper level trough is embedded into a broader wave running along the Gulf Stream. This will help the shorter waved trough deteriorate and eventually continue to the northeast. Rain showers will continue through the day tomorrow, with the threat for precipitation finally ending late in the morning on Tuesday. Any cool air brought on by this feature will be short lived, with warm air quick in pursuit, thanks to an advancing ridge.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers possible. High 53, Low 42
Tuesday – Isolated showers early, then sunny and much warmer, High 73, Low 45

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 53, Low 40
Tuesday – Mainly sunny.  High 73, Low 42

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and cool with a passing shower or two High 55, Low 42
Tuesday – Partly sunny, pleasant and warmer High 70, Low 42

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy High 54, Low 41
Tuesday – Sunny, High 70, Low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers High 52, Low 39
Tuesday – Sunny, not as cool, High 68, Low 42

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 54, Low 42
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 43

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy starting overnight. High 57, Low 42
Tuesday – Partly cloudy until morning. High 74, Low 44

A few spritzes of rain in my forecast. This low doesn’t seem to want to leave, but that extra precipitation might not reach the ground. Here is the beautiful satellite, showing off the well defined circulation in New England.

Kauai sets a rainfall record

Back on April 14th, a steady stream of heavy rain pummeled the northern part of the island of Kauai, the westernmost major island in Hawai’i. The northern end of the islands are exposed to the trades and most of the features that drift across the Pacific, so northern Kauai isn’t unfamiliar with heavy rain from time to time. This was something else though.
A sensor in northern Kauai reported a 24 hour rainfall of nearly 50″ which topples the American record which has stood for about 40 years, dating back to Tropical Storm Claudette in 1979 in coastal Texas. For comparison, the maximum total from the devastating Hurricane Harvey was about 60 inches, over the course of several days. This was nearly as much in a quarter of the time. The annual rainfall at Victoria-Weather HQ is about 30 inches!
For more on the devastation and the recovery efforts in this remote part of Hawai’i, read Brittany Lyte’s article on the event, or check out KHON‘s video story of the event.

Emerging spring time

One of the nice things about the delayed introduction to spring is that in places like the southeast, we haven’t hit the sultry, oppressive weight of summer heat. Such was the case in Anderson last week, when our forecast accurately showed that temperatures would see highs around the 70 degree mark, both on Thursday and Friday. The low temperature dropped a bit on Friday after an inactive cold rolled through, but all that meant is that it was tough to get out of bed on Tuesday morning. Too comfortable! Forecast.io claimed the top forecast spot
Actuals: Thursday – High 72, Low 50
Friday – High 68, Low 39

Grade: B-D

Jackson, Tennessee

Tomorrow –  Early fog, then sunny, High 72, Low 49
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 70, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Areas of patchy fog early. Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 75, Low 52
Saturday – Mainly sunny.  High 77, Low 50

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 74, Low 48
Saturday – Pleasant with plenty of sunshine High 72, Low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, High 74, Low 47
Saturday – Sunny, High 73, Low 48

WB: Tomorrow – Areas of fog early in the morning. Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 48
Saturday – Sunny, High 69, Low 49

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 74, Low 47
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy until morning. High 76,, Low 47
Saturday – Clear throughout the day. High 72, Low 48

As is often the cast, I nosed the forecast in one direction or another after I recorded the video. In this case warmer, thanks in large part to all the sun Jackson is going to see.

Manchester, New Hampshire to Pittsfield, Massachusetts

Tomorrow’s road trip is going to be a pretty quick one, only 150 miles from Southern NH to Western MA. It’s over 50% shorter than the road trip I’m actually taking to IL tomorrow to see family. Odd how that works out sometimes.

It will be a relatively short road trip, but unfortunately, it’s going to be a wet one as low pressure is lifting over the Northeast and New England tomorrow. Rain showers will spread into Southern NH overnight and will continue to linger throughout the region tomorrow as we head westward into far southern VT before turning south on I-91 into MA. It’ll be a soggy day as we pull into Pittsfield around noon, and showers will continue throughout the rest of the day.

Pittsfield, Massachusetts

Tonight, we head up to New England and take a gander at what’s happening in the Berkshires of Massachusetts!

At 1054pm EDT, the temperature at Pittsfield, MA was 53 degrees under fair skies. A slow-moving low pressure system is found over the Mid-Atlantic states, spreading copious amounts of rain out ahead of it into the Northeast US and soon, New England. This area of low pressure has been taking its’ sweet time since it developed over the Southern Plains a few days ago and creeped its way into the Deep South. Rain showers will spread over Western MA overnight tonight and last throughout the day Wednesday as the low traverses the Northeast and New England. Rain showers will taper off during the morning hours on Thursday as the low lifts out of New England into Canada, with clouds decreasing throughout the day as weak high pressure moves in.

Wednesday: Rain showers throughout the day. High 57, Low 47.
Thursday: Rain showers in morning, decreasing clouds throughout the day. High 57, Low 42.

TWC: Wednesday: Rain. High 54, Low 46.
Thursday: Morning showers. High 53, Low 45.

AW :Wednesday: Cloudy, a little rain and cooler. High 55, Low 45.
Thursday: Cloudy. High 56, Low 46.

NWS: Wednesday: Rain. High 55, Low 44.
Thursday: Chance of showers, fog early. High 60, Low 45.

WB: Wednesday: Rain. High 54, Low 45.
Thursday: Rain showers. High 52, Low 47.

WN: Wednesday: Cloudy with light rain. High 54, Low 45.
Thursday: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. High 60, Low 45.

FIO: Wednesday: Rain starting overnight, continuing until evening. High 55, Low 44.
Thursday: Early morning showers, foggy overnight. High 53, Low 42.

Yeah… there’s plenty of rain moving in, as seen by the Northeast US radar composite. This low pressure has been slow to move all week, and the next couple of rain-soaked days won’t be any different.

The official blog of Victoria-Weather