Sebastian, Florida

Today we are off to the Space Coast of Florida, and the city of Sebastian, which lies between Melbourne and Vero Beach. I imagine the weather there is going to be quite wonderful, though perhaps a bit toasty. Let’s see if I’m right.

At 10am, ET The east coast of Florida was fairly uniform, with temperatures at 87 in both Melbourne and Vero Beach. The sea breeze was most active on the Gulf side of the Peninsula, but as the afternoon warms up, those storms should become more widespread over the center of the state, if the past couple of days are any indication. Temperatures will top out in the low 90s, though rogue thunderstorms will bring temperatures down with cool outflow.
The thunderstorm activity across the Florida Peninsula has primarily been found inland, allowing for collapsing storms to produce the cool outflows that have been seen along the coast in recent days. High pressure continues to extend from the Gulf of Mexico east across Florida, and local thermal dynamics will continue to provide direction for the weather, with early showers and storms possible, before the daily instability shifts further inland on each of the next two days. A cold front reaching the northern border of Florida will enhance the threat for later in the day storms for Sebastian, as flow will take a more southerly approach.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers and storms in the morning, High 90, Low 75
Friday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers and storms, High 90, Low 76

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 95, Low 75
Friday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 95, Low 76

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine, a thunderstorm in spots High 89, Low 74
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine, a thunderstorm in spots; humid High 90, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny, High 90, Low 72
Friday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 92, Low 74

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy through late morning then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 86, Low 74
Friday – Partly cloudy with showes and thunderstorms likely, High 87, Low 74

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 90, Low 72
Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 92, Low 74

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain in the afternoon. High 86, Low 74
Friday – Light rain in the afternoon. High 84, Low 75

For a coastal Florida site in the heart of summer, those are some awfully chilly forecasts. Of course, with the random whims of Floridian thunderstorms, who really knows?

Weather Wayback…. Razor’s Edge

Autumn came in late October to central Indiana. There was a quick cold front that moved through, followed by temperatures in the upper 40s on the 25th in Indianapolis. There were only  too outlets who thought the dreary day was rain free, and it was at Indianapolis International Airport, though across town at Eagle Creek, there was a faint smudge of drizzle. Rain was thisclose to verifying during out period, but instead, Victoria-Weather got the win, with the dry forecast.
Actuals: October 25th – High 49, Low 37
October 26th – High 62, Low 34

Grade: A-C

Jackson, Michigan to Little Rock, Arkansas

Today we embark on a 824-mile road trip from Lower Michigan to the capital of Arkansas. This will be a 2-day trek for adventure seekers. Let’s hit the road!

DAY ONE

High pressure sitting over the Great Lakes should make for a pleasant start to the day as we head west out of Jackson, MI on I-94 towards Lake Michigan. Increasing clouds are expected as we head through northwest IN past Gary and into northeastern IL. We’ll head south on I-57 and through early afternoon the conditions will remain dry. As we head into central IL during the late afternoon hours, we could see some isolated showers as a boundary lingers from the OH Valley into the Central Plains. Any rain we see should be short-lived as we pull into Mt. Vernon, IL for the night.

DAY TWO

Low pressure hanging out near Sioux Falls will shift through the Midwest during the day, bringing more widespread shower/thunderstorm activity around Southern IL as we start the day. We’ll have to dodge this activity until we get into Arkansas where conditions should finally start to dry out, but clouds should remain. The rest of the day will be smooth sailing as we head into Little Rock in the late afternoon!

Calm and Steady Along the Gulf

We were anticipated a fairly quiet pattern for New Orleans as kicked off the weekend, and the weather didn’t disappoint. Dry conditions were felt both days with temperatures nearly identical both days as well! There was a 4-way tie at the top of the leaderboard as VW, TWC, the NWS, and WN all tied with just 3 degree error points!

Friday: High 93, Low 78.
Saturday: High 94, Low 78.
Forecast Grade: A

Oklahoma pounded by overnight squall line

Take a look at this current radar image from Oklahoma City. It promises a very bumpy evening for residents of the Sooner State.

Let’s address that big line that rolled through Oklahoma City just now. Note the narrow blue band ahead of the primary line. That’s likely not actually precipitation, but rather the dust and particulate forced ahead of the line by very strong winds rushing ahead of the line. Usually, we would call this an outflow boundary, but that would indicate a collapsing storm, which this storm is not doing. It’s just hauling through Oklahoma, generating a lot of straight line wind.

If you look to the west, there are a couple of smaller bow echoes, which are undoubtedly producing strong winds of their own, and given their stronger radar returns, might be contributing some small hail as well.

All these storms are riding a mostly stationary boundary, which is the case with derechoes. Those straightline wind events are generally long lasting (expect to see this storm in Arkansas or Louisiana tomorrow morning) because they have the stationary boundary to ride, and produce widespread damage, thanks the to the breadth of these storms.

Fortunately, the storm is through Oklahoma City for the night, and the largest town it should clip overnight is McAlester, but places like Pine Bluff and Shreveport should be ready for an early wake up call!

New Orleans, Louisiana

As we head into the weekend, let’s take a look at how it’s shaping up for the Big Easy! Will it be a great weekend for tourists and residents alike? Or will vacation be spent indoors? Also, Summer officially started earlier this morning, hooray!

At 1053pm CDT, the temperature at New Orleans, LA was 83 degrees under fair skies. An occluded low is found over the Mid-MS River Valley, trailing a front through the Ohio Valley and down into the Deep South and Southern Plains. Some healthy thunderstorms are rolling through MS/AL ahead of the cold front, but this activity is expected to stay well north of the New Orleans area. The tail end of the front should remain north as it shifts east during the morning hours Friday, and much of the Eastern GOM/Gulf Coast looks to be quiet as the Bermuda High builds over the region. We can expect these fairly quiet conditions to extend into Saturday, with continued hot and muggy temperatures. Typical Summer conditions!

Friday: Mostly sunny. High 93, Low 78.
Saturday: Continued sunny and muggy. High 92, Low 77.

TWC: Friday: Partly cloudy. High 93, Low 77.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 92, Low 78.

AW: Friday: Partly sunny; delightful. High 91, Low 77.
Saturday: Partly sunny; humid. High 91, Low 78.

NWS: Friday: Partly sunny. High 92, Low 78.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 92, Low 78.

WB: Friday: Partly sunny. High 87, Low 79.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 88, Low 79.

WN: Friday: Partly cloudy. High 92, Low 78.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 92, Low 78.

FIO: Friday: Humid throughout the day and mostly cloudy until evening. High 89, Low 76.
Saturday: Partly cloudy until afternoon. High 90, Low 77.

All is quiet around the Central Gulf Coast tonight, while portions of the Deep South are seeing some potent thunderstorms. This quiet pattern looks to extend into the weekend!

Not quite tropical, except for the rains

Late last week, it appeared that tropical storm Beryl was in the near future for the western Gulf of Mexico. As it would ultimately turn out, however, the storm didn’t organize enough to be named, but it did bring quite a bit of rain to eastern Texas. On Friday and Saturday, though, College Station was still concerning itself with the onshore flow associated with the strengthening low. The problem was that it wasn’t quite strong enough to really pipe in any moisture based on circulation alone. There was nary a drop those two days, which was unexpected by almost everyone, and the dry, sunny days meant warm days as well. The warmest forecasters were the Weather Service and WeatherNation, and they snagged the top spot.
Actuals: Friday – High 96, Low 74
Saturday – High 95, Low 75

Grade: B-D

Topeka got throttled

Early last week, we took a look at the forecast for Kansas’ capital, Topeka. A cold front preparing to bisect the Plains was set to touch off thunderstorms in the area on Monday, and it was going to be close, whether or not those storms fired up before the boundary passed Topeka or not. Perhaps the headline gave it away. There were severe storms all around Topeka, particularly northeast of town on Monday night. They collected exactly one inch of rain before all was said and done, with hail and gusty winds to boot. There was just a trace on Tuesday, and the subsequent day must have felt much more comfortable.
Actuals: Monday – 1.00″ in heavy thunderstorms, High 99, Low 69
Tuesday – Trace in rain, high 92, Low 69

Grade: C

Victoria, Texas

While it was scorching here in the Twin Cities (record high of 95!), let’s go take a look at somewhere a bit cooler, Texas! Wait what?

At 751pm CDT, the temperature at Victoria, TX was 85 degrees under fair skies. A broad ridge of high pressure is found throughout the South, from the Southern Plains through the Southeast. Outside of typical dryline storms in West TX and normal seabreeze-esque diurnal storms along the coast, the region is fairly void of synoptic systems. That’s expected to change over the weekend as a tropical feature is spinning its way from the Yucatan Peninsula towards the TX coastline. It’s not really expected to develop into anything, just looks like a system that will bring increase rains to the Victoria area, mainly on Sunday evening. Saturday looks fairly decent, just gotta dodge those pop-up afternoon storms!

Saturday: Isolated thunderstorms in afternoon. Hot and humid. High 94, Low 76.
Sunday: Slightly cooler with increased clouds, chances of storms increases for the afternoon and evening hours. High 90, Low 75.

TWC: Saturday: Partly cloudy, isolated showers. High 94, Low 76.
Sunday: Thunderstorms. High 89, Low 76.

AW: Saturday: A shower and t-storm around. High 92, Low 76.
Sunday: Rain and a t-storm, breezy. High 90, Low 76.

NWS: Saturday: Chance of thunderstorms. High 93, Low 76.
Sunday: Thunderstorms likely. High 90, Low 76.

WB: Saturday: Chance of storms. High 92, Low 76.
Sunday: Scattered thunderstorms. High 88, Low 77.

WN: Saturday: Partly cloudy with scattered storms. High 93, Low 76.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely. High 90, Low 76.

FIO: Saturday: Humid throughout the day, partly cloudy in afternoon. High 92, Low 77.
Sunday: Rain starting in the afternoon. Hig 89, Low 76.

Here we see some clouds dotting the region. More noticeable, however, is a fire from Matagorda Island with it’s smoke blowing towards the northwest, just missing Victoria. It was a prescribed burn, so nothing to be too worried about.

College Station, Texas

Midweek, and time for another forecast. This time, we’re going to head to the home of one of the finer meteorology schools in the country, College Station, in east Texas.

At 153PM, CT, College Station was reporting a temperature of 92 degrees with partly cloudy skies. Some seabreeze thunderstorms were popping up along the coast, with the strongest storm presently passing through downtown Houston. A tropical wave in the Bay of Campeche was directing a southeasterly flow into the Texas coast, helping to contribute to the thunderstorm activity.
The NHC is monitoring the wave, with the expectation of some development in the next few days, though models seem to agree that it won’t develop beyond a weak tropical storm, making it Tropical Storm Beryl. In the meantime, afternoon thunderstorms will continue today, tomorrow and Saturday, as the future Beryl drifts into the western Gulf.
Tomorrow – Warm but with isolated thunderstorms, High 92, Low 75
Saturday – More thunderstorms, but still other wise warm and sunny, High 91, Low 75

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 94, Low 73
Saturday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible.  High 93, Low 74

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny; humid High 93, Low 74
Saturday – Clouds and sunshine, a shower or thunderstorm around; humid High 92, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 95, Low 74
Saturday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 92, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 89, Low 75
Saturday – Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 86, Low 75

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms, High 95, Low 74
Saturday – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 92, Low 75

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the morning, continuing until evening.High 92, Low 72
Saturday – Partly cloudy starting in the morning, continuing until evening. High 92, Low 73

Here is a look at the radar, showing those isolated thunderstorms. Very hit or or miss, and mostly miss.

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