As we slice through August, we will slow down on the forecasts, and likely keep a closer eye on the tropics.
Jonesboro, Arkansas
Syracuse, New York
Road Trip from Brownsville, Texas to LaCrosse, Wisconsin.
Coming Soon…
Fresno, California to Norwich, Connecticut
This summer has been hot, but the temperatures aren’t as rough as they have been lately, and the storm activity in particular is quiet. It’s a perfect time to take a week and cross the country! We’re going to be driving for 6 days, with the 6 day mercifully shorter than the first 5, at a pace of 67.7mph. This will give us daily goals of 542 miles a day as we cross 3046 miles of America.
DAY ONE (Wednesday)
The story in California and through the Southwest is that it is hot. We will go south to avoid some mountains and drive right through the desert, near Death Valley and past Las Vegas. We won’t find much relief from the heat until we start climbing in Utah, and we won’t do that until near the end of the day. We will stop in southern Utah, in the town of Summit, which lies not far from where we will turn onto I-70.
DAY TWO (Thursday)
Moisture is being funneled eastward, which keeping the monsoon stunted. Storms are appearing in Arizona, but I’m not particularly concerned about the mountain passes of the central Rockies. We will make it to the fringes of the mountain community of Golden, west of Denver.
DAY THREE (Friday)
It seems like all long road trips end up spending a night in Nebraska. We’re looking into this. Our week will end near Omaha, really on the southwestern outskirts. If there was going to be any rain, this would have been the day, just for the excitement. We’ll still be rain free as we check in to the hotel in Omaha.
DAY FOUR (Saturday)
More of the same as we start, with dry skies until Des Moines, for sure. A few scattered showers will emerge as a possibility east of Des Moines, but not one that will ruin our day. Unless they come in Chicago, at which point all bets are off. That would ruin the day. Expect traffic to remain dicey regardless of the weather. Let’s get out of Chicago before the night ends, finishing in LaPorte, Indiana.
DAY FIVE (Sunday)
The moisture threat will linger through the weekend, produced by a dissipated area of low pressure and penned by high pressure in the Atlantic. There won’t be much convective activity, and as we reach the hills of Appalachia, the rain will be misty, and more likely the higher we are. The day will end south of Williamsport, in Eastville.
DAY SIX (Monday)
In a bit of good news, all that moisture is going to be hemmed to the west of the Appalachians. There may be a bit of low level moisture – fog or light mist – as we set out, but the drive into New England looks to be clear and dry. And significantly cooler than Fresno.
Norwich, Connecticut
Off to New England as we reach he dog days of summer. I suspect that many residents in the Norwich area would happily be on their way to Martha’s Vineyard or otherwise on vacation this time of year.
At 852PM, ET, Norwich was seeing a temperature of 72 degrees with clear skies. The temperatures over Long Island and near the coast in Connecticut were a shade lower as the sun had less time to shine. Left over mid level moisture along the coast has continued to mean clouds from Long Island southward, and with high pressure parked over the Atlantic will keep it in place for a while.
The next feature to keep an eye on is a standing trough in the Great Lakes. While the cold front won’t be moving eastward in any kind of hurry, the little progression there is will draw some of that lingering coastal moisture further north. The mere act of inducing some motion within this moist air mass will lead to some general showers and storms that will eventually reach eastern Connecticut by Thursday evening.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 86, Low 61
Thursday – Late showers and storms, otherwise mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 67
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 85, Low 59
Thursday – AM Showers, High 88, Low 71
AW: Tomorrow – Humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 83, Low 57
Thursday – Uncomfortably humid with intervals of clouds and sun; an afternoon thunderstorm in parts of the area High 86. Low 70
NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny (late rain), High 84, Low 58
Thursday – A chance of showers before 8am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Patchy fog between 7am and 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 87, Low 68
WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Mostly sunny. (late rain) High 85, Low 64
Thursday – Partly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 87, Low 70
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 84, Low 58
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with showers and isolated storms, High 87, Low 68
CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 86, Low 59
Thursday – Light rain showers, High 87, Low 70
There isn’t enough there, in my opinion, to worry about showers tomorrow. It’s barely concerning on Thursday. Satellite shows those clouds along the Mid-Atantic coast.
Updates 8/4
9:33AM: Last night, I posted a blurb about hot hot and humid it was in Houston overnight. This morning, I come with better news, but for the Ohio Valley. Pittsburgh is sunny and seeing dew points in the low 60s this morning, promising a comfortable day. Good luck trying to work!
Updates 8/3
11:55PM: Good night, and good luck sleeping, Houston. Temperatures may stay in the 80s alllll night.
Fresno, California
Our forecast takes us to the piping hot Central Valley in California. Right out of the frying pan and into the fire, as they say.
At 653PM, PT, Fresno was reporting a temperature of 102, and smokey skies. The Raleigh Fire is located northeast of town, and smoke is observed at the airport, though the fire is nearly 100% contained.
There is an upper level trough moving through the Pacific Northwest, with a ridge moving into the area to start the work week. With flow becoming less organized, laminar upper level winds will be a bit stronger and more westerly. This would typically mean a bit of relief with more Pacific air and the chance for upper level flow, but lighter winds will mitigate any advantages.
Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 109, Low 73
Monday – Fair skies, hot, High 110, Low 72
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 107, Low 71
Monday – Sunny, High 108, Low 71
AW: Tomorrow – Sweltering heat with blazing sunshine; heat will be dangerous, minimize outdoor activity High 108, Low 71
Monday – Blazing sunshine with the temperature approaching the record of 110 set in 1946; heat will be dangerous, minimize outdoor activity High 109, Low 71
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 105, Low 71
Monday – Sunny and hot, high 105, Low 71
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 103, Low 76
Monday – Sunny. High 106, Low 75
WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 105, Low 71
Monday – Sunny, High 105, Low 71
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 106, Low 73
Monday – Sunny, High 106, Low 72
This is the rare time where nearly everyone was forecasting below model guidance for several of the models. If some of those runs are right, Fresno will easily surpass that 110 record. Here is a map of Fresno with the location of the Raleigh Fire.
Updates 8/1
8:25PM: Happy August! We don’t tend to see a lot of the severe weather in the Plains that we can see during the spring and early summer. Late summer and the beginning of fall is typically the province of tropical season. The cold front, steady rain and cool temperatures moving through Michigan tonight are way too early!
This? This is just summer
Have you heard about the heat dome? This has pushed hotter temperatures even further outside the typically warm parts of the middle and southern parts of the country, and nosing those warm temperatures up a couple of degrees. When we forecast for St. Joseph, however, the hot air wasn’t freakishly abnormal. It was in the low 90s in the afternoon, but surely there were complaints about low temperatures that remained in the mid to upper 70s. At least storms evaded the area, which meant temperatures were the only thing inhibiting sleep. Victoria-Weather picked up a victory in sultry St. Joe’s.
Actuals: July 18th, High 93, Low 77
July 19th, High 96, Low 76
Grade: C
Updates 7/29
9:44PM The threat for thunderstorms in the dog days of summer are more generalized and far reaching. Severe storms, organized convection and outbreaks are just not common. This is reflected by a pretty green SPC outlook for tomorrow.
Saginaw, Michigan
It seems as though life is going to get a bit more interesting in Michigan over the next 24 hours. Let’s see just how interesting it gets in Saginaw.
At 1215AM, ET, Saginaw was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 73 degrees. The dew point was 68, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see some fog overnight. While the SPC has hinted at thunderstorms, potentially strong, all day, the most recent model guidance has started to clarify two distinct batches of storms developing, and one is being seen over the Upper Peninsula, while the other is having a tougher time launching in eastern Wisconsin. A slow moving warm front moving through the area will provide the path for whatever develops to shift to the southeast. With the Wisconsin batch lagging behind, the UP area may take advantage, potentially leading to a higher threat for overnight or early morning severe weather.
While the warm front is the main show, the occluded low pressure center will ensure a threat for a few scattered showers into the afternoon as well. Expect a hot beginning to the work week in Saginaw, even while dodging rain drops. The low pressure center will move towards New England, leaving high pressure to build back in over Michigan on Tuesday with cooler conditions.
Tomorrow – Early morning storms, then mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 68
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 65
TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. Potential for severe thunderstorms High 84, Low 66
Tuesday – Cloudy early with partial sunshine expected late High 77, Low 66
AW: Tomorrow – Showers and a heavier thunderstorm in the morning; variable clouds, breezy, humid; thunderstorms can bring flooding downpours, hail and damaging wind gusts High 84, Low 68
Tuesday – Variable cloudiness, breezy and humid with widely separated thunderstorms High 80, Low 66
NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 87, Low 68
Tuesday – Partly sunny (early rain) High 79, Low 66
WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 83, Low 71
Tuesday – Partly cloudy High 81, Low 67
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers and chance of storms, High 87, Low 68
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with showers, High 79, Low 67
CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 82, Low 67
Tuesday – Rain showers, High 76, Low 66
It’s looking more and more like the heavy storms are going to crop up and pass east of Saginaw. I imagine that will help temperatures sneak up fairly high. Nice work by us avoiding the heat dome!
