To start the month of March, we were monitoring the forecast in Hattiesburg, Mississippi. There wasn’t much to it, honestly, with high pressure over the region and — wait, light rain overnight? I call shenanigans. Actually, specifically, I call out the tendency for the ASOS in the Hattiesburg office for suggesting mist when there often isn’t any. It tends to fog in pretty severely in Hattiesburg, but the actual condensate is harder to verify as legitimate precipitation. I digress. Nobody had , true or not, in the forecast, so we can comfortably say that Victoria-Weather collected the victory. Actuals: Saturday – High 71, Low 31 Sunday – High 71, Low 39
The southern US has been trounced by severe weather lately, from the devastating tornadoes in Nashville and Cookeville, Tennessee, to persistent thunderstorms nearer the Gulf Coast. There is a break in the action, finally, across the region but will it last for our 2 day, 1219 mile route. Will these storms return, or will we be able to manage a steady pace (estimated at 66mph, with a goal of 529 miles in day one)?
DAY ONE (Saturday)
Killeen, TX
A split jet stream over the eastern US is coming together off shore in the Gulf Stream, meaning any and all concerning weather is going to be off shore this weekend. The primary concern between Killeen and Brandon, Mississippi, our destination for the night, will be ensuring that we remember our sunglasses and sunscreen in case we want to sit outside for dinner east of Jackson.
DAY TWO (Sunday) Brandon, Mississippi, is the home of the WFO for Jackson, and in my opinion is one of the best offices in the country. Too bad the weather is going to be so pleasant while we’re there. High pressure will only consolidate over the southeast, and the drive from Brandon to Greensboro will continue to be pleasant, though in the wake of the strong system now off shore, it might be a little cooler in Greensboro than anywhere else along our drive.
And away we go, spring is on the horizon and maybe we can start to see fewer snow storms in our forecasts. Multiple cross country road trips beg of that, while there will be only a couple of western forecasts which should remain snow free.
Tucson, Arizona Road trip from Greensboro, North Carolina to Tucson
Road Trip from Lebanon, Pennsylvania to Madison, Wisconsin
We’re just following election states around, I guess. Well, this time, we are off to Texas, which votes tomorrow as part of Super Tuesday. I’m sure that regardless of who they support, Texans are all going to vote for good weather.
At 958PM, CT, Killeen was reporting a temperature of 67 degrees with fair skies. There was some light rain in the area, south of Killeen. It’s not particularly heavy, and most of it is certainly not reaching the ground, however there were a few drips being reported in Junction and Marble Falls. That ground truth means it would be imprudent to take rain out of the overnight forecast in Killeen. A complicated system in the eastern US is born of a jet with a split tail, merging over Indiana, with a weak cold front sweeping through Texas. The southern end of the front is troughing dramatically in the Desert Southwest, and as it translates to the east, cyclogenesis will be swift. The feature will move into Texas by tomorrow evening, with an active warm front arriving in town late in the evening. The low itself will arrive in the early morning on Wednesday, with heavy rain and some embedded thunderstorms starting around sunrise and lasting at least through the early afternoon, with light to moderate rain coming on the back end of the system and lasting through the afternoon and evening. Tomorrow – Clouds and light rain arriving late, High 76, Low 62 Wednesday – Rain and thunderstorms through the day, High 64, Low 50
TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 76, Low 61 Wednesday – Rain likely. Potential for heavy rainfall. High 62, Low 51
AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy and not as warm with a brief shower or two High 70, Low 59 Wednesday – Cooler; heavy rain and a thunderstorm in the morning, then a little rain; watch for flash flooding High 59, Low 48
NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after noon. High 72, Low 59 Wednesday – Showers and possibly a thunderstorm High 60, Low 50
WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. High 75, Low 60 Wednesday, – Showers. A chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Then a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 64, Low 50
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers likely, High 72, Low 59 Wednesday – Mostly cloudy iwth showers, High 60, Low 55
FIO: Tomorrow – Overcast throughout the day. High 76, Low 61 Wednesday – Rain until evening.High 65, Low 49
If I had a vote, I would vote both against Weatherbug and my blogging software, because goodness, if they weren’t fickle tonight. Here is the radar, with that drizzle moving through central Texas.
Over the weekend, there was a report from CBS that labeled lake effect snow as a “snow firehose” and claimed it was very rare. Anyone who lives east or south of the Great Lakes know that this is decidedly untrue. If it WAS true and it happened over the weekend then Rochester would have been in the “overspray” area, collecting only a trace on Friday and 1-2″ on Saturday. Now the wind, that was something, especially on Friday, where they got 30mph gusts. Maybe that was the firehose? Victoria-Weather and the Weather Service collected the top forecast. Actuals: Friday – Trace of snow, High 26, low 22 Saturday – 1-2″ of snow, High 23, low 12
I will admit, that I haven’t done a heck of a lot of driving in the southeastern US, so I don’t have a terribly good concept of just how big the spaces are down there. I am a little surprised, I guess is what I am saying, that Deltona and Hattiesburg are only 610 miles apart, and the drive can be done in just one day. The pace will be a brisk 70mph, owing the fact, I guess, that the only major towns we will bypass are Tallahassee and Mobile, which I guess aren’t beset by traffic.
Deltona, Florida
The weather in Deltona today is quite nice, and there really isn’t anything on its way that suggests that will change for the next 24 hours or so. TYhe start of our drive, therefore, looks pretty great, pretty swift and incident free. Unfrotunately, an area of low pressure developing over Ontario, of all places, is draping a cold front south along the Mississippi River, and it will be inching into the Tennessee Valley as we get going on Monday. Now, the cold front will not reach the coast or I-10 at any point, but the flow feeding the boundary will lead to some afternoon showers and storms from the Florida Peninsula west to Hattiesburg. The shower activity is most possible beyond Tallahassee, but doesn’t become likely until we reach Mobile. The rain won’t last all night, so Hattiesburg should dry up by nightfall. Of course if we want to spend any more time in Hattiesburg than just one night, we might need to make sure our plans are of the “indoor” variety.
Hattiesburg is a part of the Jackson WFO, and in my opinion, this is the best Forecast Office in the country. That aside, let’s see if they are as good at forecasting as they are at web design.
At 1253AM, CT, Hattiesburg was reporting a temperature of 37 degrees with clear skies. The remnants of a strong system are continuing to clear out of the Ohio VAlley, but otherwise, the satellite remains clear east of the Rockies with a surface ridge building from the Gulf to the Great Lakes. There continues to be a broad upper level trough, with the base running zonally along the US-Mexican border the northern Gulf, with an undercutting ridge providing the stability over the continental US. The base of the trough being as far south as it is simply for temperatures to remain a bit below normal, though the clear skies will help make up some of the difference in the afternoon. Tomorrow – Sunny, High 70, Low 34 Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 73, Low 42
TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. 71, Sunday – Partly cloudy skies. High 70, Low 44
AW: Tomorrow – Abundant sunshine, High 69, Low 36 Sunday – Partial sunshine High 70, Low 42
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 37 Sunday – Mostly sunny High 71, Low 42
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 38 Sunday – Mostly sunny im the morning, then becoming partly cloudy, High 69, Low 44
I have talked about “bright banding” in the past. It is the phenomenon in which snow forms striations on radar, with the brighter returns indicating elongated bands of heavy snowfall. Given the movement patterns of snow storms, these bands tend to linger and usually result in the locations that receive the most snow in a region’s snow event.
What happens, then, if there is only one band of snow in a withering area of low pressure, and it sets up in an area that is otherwise snow free? What this bright band would do is something like what happened earlier this week in Kansas, with a system that moved through the mid-Mississippi Valley, and ultimately became a blizzard in western New York and eastern Canada.
In the end, the snow band was less than 20 miles wide, but in some places more than a foot deep, and came down at a pace that required the closing of I-70 in northern Kansas. Certainly bad luck for the very few people that saw all the snow, but at least they didn’t need to go far to get out of it.
Things are pretty dicey in western New York. Yesterday’s Lake flooding alerts have turned to winter storm and blizzard warnings. My oh my, this should be an interesting forecast.
At 1007AM, ET, Rochester was reporting temperature of 25 degrees, but the thing everyone was surely noticing was the west wind at 33kt and light, wind driven snow. A strong area of low pressure lay over Ontario and Quebec, and on the south end of the system, the brisk west wind is leading to blizzard conditions east of Lakes Ontario and Erie, while Rochester, for the time being, is spared of the worst of this storm. The upper level structure parenting this blizzard is asymmetrical, and that will be it’s undoing. With all the strength off shore, the central low pressure will weaken significantly and the brisk west winds and potential for snowfall will subside this afternoon and through tomorrow. The strong off shore jet will become associated with a laminar jet in the southern US, which will mean cold air will remain in western New York for the next few days. The orientation of the trough will subsequently foster northerly flow, which, while light, will create a fetch off of Lake Ontario that presents the possibility for Lake Effect accumulation in Rochester starting late Friday and lasting through Saturday. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with snow returning in the evening, High 28, low 20 Saturday – Persistent, wet snow, High 23, low 15
TWC: Tomorrow – Windy with snow showers in the afternoon High 27, low 21 Saturday – Overcast. A few flurries or snow showers possible High 23, Low 18
AW: Tomorrow – Windy, cold with blowing snow; cloudy with snow at times, accumulating a coating to an inch High 28, low 21 Saturday – Low clouds and cold with a flurry or two High 25, Low 17
NWS: Tomorrow – Snow showers likely, mainly between noon and 5pm, then snow after 5pm. Areas of blowing snow. High 26, Low 20 Saturday – Snow. High 23, Low 17
WB: Tomorrow – Snow showers in the morning, then lake effect snow in the afternoon. Areas of blowing snow. Accumulations of 1-2″ in the most persistent snows. Very windy and cold. High 26, low 21 Saturday – Lake effect snow, High 22, Low 19
WN: tomorrow – Windy with snow showers likely, High 26, Low 21 Saturday – Cloudy with light snow, High 23, Low 21
FIO: Tomorrow – Windy tonight and tomorrow morning. High 27, Low 19 Saturday – Foggy tomorrow night and in the morning. High 25, Low 17
Instead of the radar, like I would normally add when there is precipitation, I have included the satellite imagery from Canada. This is a big area of low pressure stretched across eastern Canada, but it’s not going to last much longer. It’s getting stretched to oblivion as we speak.
Monday turned out to be miserable in central South Carolina. A round of heavy rain moved north and into the Columbia area early on in the day, and didn’t allow Columbia to come up for air at any point. Monday only saw a 3 degree spread from high to low as they collected35 inches of rain through the day. The Weather Channel has continued their solid month with a victory in the South Carolina state capital. Actuals: Sunday, High 62, Low 30 Monday – .35 inches of rain, High 51, Low 38
