Sacramento, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’ve been worried so much about what has been going on in the southeast lately, we haven’t even looked out west for a while. What is, exactly, going on in the West Coast?

At 1053AM, PT, Sacramento was reporting overcast skies and a temperature of 58 degrees. A weak perturbation in the upper atmosphere is generating clouds over California, including some precipitation in he higher terrain, but there isn’t much support coming behind this feature. Clouds may take time clearing out, but a significant cool down and precipitation are not expected.
More concerted ridging will move into the area by midday tomorrow, rendering Tuesday a clearer and warmer day for the Capitol. There should still be some ambient cloud cover through the area on Wednesday, as a north to south jet will continue weakly along the Nevada-Utah border, and will likely provide, at the very least, some clouds on the eastern horizon for Sacramento
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy but clearing High 75, Low 47
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 80, Low 49

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. High 78, Low 47
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. High 82, Low 78

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, pleasant and warmer High 77, Low 46
Wednesday – Beautiful with a blend of sun and clouds High 82, Low 49

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 78, Low 47
Wednesday – Mostly sunny,  High 83, Low 51

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 47
Wednesday – Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy, High 81, Low 51

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 47
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 83, Low 51

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 78, Low 48
Wednesday – Clear throughout the day. High 84, Low 53

V-W is a bigger believer in the threat for cloud cover. Below, take a look at how robust it is this morning. You can’t even make out the coast yet today.

Pause

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A day after a tornado struck Monroe, Louisiana, and a few days before another round of severe weather swept through northern Louisiana, there was a respite. Temperatures were cool for this part of the world, especially in the spring, with highs never pulling out of the mid-70s and lows even dipping below 40 on Thursday morning. Forecasts were generally pretty good, but this was a fairly simple forecast. A benign forecast for benign weather when that is just what everyone needed. The Weather Channel and Accuweather had the top marks.
Actuals: Wednesday, High 64, Low 40
Thursday – High 74, Low 39

Grade: A-B

Hickory, North Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It’s interesting that Hickory, NC is clearly the largest Hickory in the world, but the most famous is one in Indiana that doesn’t even exist.

At 1153PM, ET, Hickory was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with overcast skies. There were a few sprinkles around town, which was simply a the leading edge of what will be a rainy overnight. The heaviest rain still resided in South Carolina, but it was moving into the Tar Heel State. A strong area of low pressure has brought another day of heavy weather to the southeastern US, but will be pressed east and offshore before any of the worst of the weather can reach Hickory.
The center of low pressure is going to move towards the Carolina coast on its trek northeastward, with moist air advecting back to the west on the back and north end of the low. This will likely enhance the threat for precipitation through Monday morning, at least. The jet stream is running in parallel right now, and a trailing, still strong but less active system is traversing the Canadian Prairies. After Monday dries out, the second system will swing a cold front through the area that will help make things breezy, with a bit of a cool down Tuesday evening.
Tomorrow – Rain through the morning, then improving, High 68, Low 51
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, with increasing clouds late, High 71, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain early. Decreasing clouds with mostly sunny skies by afternoon. High 70, Low 49
Tuesday – Sunny. High 70, Low 46

AW: Tomorrow – Periods of rain in the morning, then clouds giving way to some sun in the afternoon High 69, Low 50
Tuesday – Sunny to partly cloudy, breezy and pleasant High 72, Low 45

NWS: Tomorrow – Occasional showers, mainly before 11am. Patchy fog before 10am. High 68, Low 49
Tuesday – Sunny,High 71, Low 46

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Cloudy with showers in the morning then mostly sunny with a chance of showers in the afternoon, High 68, Low 51
Tuesday – Sunny breezy with highs in the lower 70s, High 69, Low 48

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers, High 68, Low 50
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 71, Low 46

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain overnight and in the morning. High 69, Low 48
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 70, Low 45

There wasn’t rain before we started this forecast, but there is now, in Hickory. Looking at the radar, though, I think you can see that it was inevitable.

Hot stuff

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Last Monday, we issued a forecast for Jacksonville, that took us through the middle of the week. Some other stuff has happened weatherwise since then. In Jacksonville, an aggressive surge of warm air indicated just what was available for the severe weather that was to come a few days later. Temperatures were, as a result, a bit warmer than most had on their forecast board. Weatherbug had two perfect forecasts, and hung tough thanks to their low temperature forecasts, and snagged the top forecast before all the weather went to hell not far from there.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 85, Low 68
Wednesday – .11 inches of rain, High 89, Low 68

Grade: B-C

Pensacola, Florida to Monroe, Louisiana

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We have a short, less than 6 hour drive today, covering 368 miles at a pace of about 63 miles. Even though this is a narrow stretch of the road, it is also exactly the most ravaged part of the south from the Easter tornado outbreaks. We will pass through Collins, which was just north of the 2 mile wide, long track twister that struck Bassfield, and clipped by another mile wide twister on the north side of town. It was a bruising day, that the Jackson WFO is still assessing.

Pensacola, Florida

The southeast currently finds itself in a pretty good respite, as the severe weather from Sunday is now a few days behind us, and dry weather has invaded. It’s warm and comfortably dry, though on Friday during the drive, expect the Lower Mississippi Valley to get increasingly humid as a weak cold front sinks southward and draws Gulf moisture north. This will mean increasing cloud cover as well, ahead of some rain that might enter the picture over the weekend in Monroe.

Monroe, Louisiana

Monroe, Louisiana

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Monroe was one of the first places impacted by the Easter Sunday tornado outbreak in the southern US. Monroe saw damage at the airport, and hundreds of homes and buildings in the area. Fortunately, it looks like we will be getting some more tolerable weather through the middle of the week. Let’s see if I can prove that.

At 1253PM, CT, Monroe was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees with a north wind and mostly sunny skies. There were a few stray clouds to the west, from El Dorado, Arkansas to Ruston and Shreveport, but Monroe was in a sunny streak of the atmosphere. The north wind trailed a still active cold front that stretched from north Florida to the Gulf of Mexico, while the band of clouds atop northern Louisiana was associated with a much weaker trough wrapping into the same area of low pressure as the front. That low was heading towards Ellesmere Island, which should give an indication of how strong it’s influence is.
The parent jet trough is winterlike in it’s strength. The trough is broad and encompassing, but its momentum is carrying it eastward at a pace that doesn’t reflect how weak the flow is behind it, especially given how broad the trough is. With cold air pressing eastward, there doesn’t seem to be much poleward motion, and Monroe looks to be ensconced in cool dry air for the middle of the week.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 65, Low 37
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 40

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies, High 65, Low 40
Thursday – Mainly sunny, High 73, Low 41

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 64, Low 38
Thursday – Mostly sunny and pleasant, High 72, Low 39

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy frost before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, High 66, Low 37
Thursday – Sunny, High 73, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Areas of frost through mid-morning. Mostly sunny. High 63, low 40
Thursday – Sunny, High 70, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with areas of frost, High 66, Low 37
Thursday – Sunny, High 73, Low 40

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 65, Low 37
Thursday – Clear throughout the day. High 72, Low 39

That should be very comfortable. Even if you are out of power in Monroe, first off, thank you for using your mobile device to check Victoria-Weather, and second, I am happy to hear that you will not have to contend with heat without air conditioning. See the banding of clouds over the southeast, below.

As tough as promised

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We looked at the Yakima Valley last week, and I warned that the forecast might be challenging. That was indeed what came to pass. The weather wasn’t really remarkable in Yakima, but it was several degrees warmer in the afternoons than most forecasts, but substantially cooler in the mornings. One outlet let their wings, and their forecast temperature deltas spread, and Accuweather took the top spot on a forecast several outlets would be happy to forget.
Actuals: Monday – High 66, Low 28
Tuesday – High 72, Low 33

Grade: B-D

March forecaster of the month

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Happy Easter everyone! I have to, before we get started, tell you all that tomorrow looks like a very dangerous day along the Gulf Coast. This might be the storm system that 2020 is remembered for, as it bears a strong resemblance to storms that have lead to devastation in Alabama and Mississippi in the past. We’re all at home, so be sure to listen to your local weather persons for guidance as weather gets dangerous.

We didn’t have that many individual forecasts last month during the course of the month, but for those that we did, there was a clear winner: The Weather Channel. The Weather Channel parlayed their win in March to a comfortable lead for the year, a quarter of the way through.

Lets look at the total wins for the month, and for the year.

OutletMonth wins
The Weather Channel2.5
Victoria-Weather1
Weatherbug0.5
WeatherNation
National Weather Service
Forecast.io
Accuweather
OutletMonth winsyear wins
Victoria-Weather14.75
The Weather Channel2.54.5
Weatherbug0.53.83
WeatherNation3.08
National Weather Service1.25
Forecast.io0.33
Accuweather0.25

Not even for my birthday

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Guess what? It was my birthday last weekend (Sunday, to be specific) which fell over the verification period for Yuma. To be concise, there was absolutely no effort to facilitate a forecast victory for me this past weekend in Arizona. The low temperature decided to drop much lower than I had in the forecast last Saturday (though I will admit, it was well managed by our competitors) and other outlets, The Weather Channel in particular, went out and actually broadcast a good forecast. What I’m saying is, none of these reprobates could even manage to gift me a victory, and instead relegated Victoria-Weather to last place. I suppose I could have maybe not been so bullish on the cloud cover Saturday morning, and maybe take some responsibility myself, but you know what? No. It’s their fault I didn’t win.
Actuals: Saturday, High 82, Low 54
Sunday – High 82, Low 58

Grade: A-C

Jacksonville, Florida

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We have trekked out to Washington quite a bit recently (including a forecast for Yakima that didn’t quite get published until I noticed it hadn’t gone out right now) but now, we will be going exactly to the opposite side of the country.

At 1156PM, ET, Jacksonville was reporting a temperature of 63 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. This is likely a bit of an aberration, as most sites across the region are cloud free, and the satellite imagery shows most of the sunshine state enjoying some moonshine tonight. The remnants of a boundary over the southeast lingers from Georgia to Mississippi in the form of some high clouds, though that is all that threatens tonight.
High pressure centered northeast of the Bahamas will ensure Jacksonville will stay dry and mostly sunny on Tuesday. There is a weak low level disturbance over the Mississippi Delta that will continue to unravel as it shifts to the east, but Wednesday is going to look a little bit bleaker with a few more clouds and an isolated shot at a shower or thunderstorm.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 59
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with a spot of rain, High 83, Low 67

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 87, Low 63
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with afternoon showers or thunderstorms. High 86, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun High 85, Low 64
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy and very warm; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 86, Low 64

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 86, Low 62
Wednesday – A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy, High 85, Low 64
Wednesday – Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers in the morning then chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 84, Low 68

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 86, Low 62
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 88, Low 66

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 86, Low 61
Wednesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 87, Low 67

Here is the satellite graphic for the evening. Just a few clouds to the north, while Jacksonville can settle in for the night with no problems.