Between the uncharacteristic rains earlier in the year, but before the heat settled in to this part of the world, we took a trip to San Diego. The forecast was issued at just the right time, to capture postcard perfect weather. At the end of February and beginning of March, temperatures were starting to creep up there, which meant outlets that were on the warm side generally fared better. In this instance, it was the Weather Service who secured the top spot, but with conditions like these, nobody is even worried about those on the bottom — The weather would have been great if their forecast was perfect, too. Actuals: February 28th, High 81, Low 62 March 1st, High 78, Low 56
10:27PM: Unfortunately, the pattern we are in is sticking around. The threat for severe storms will return from the southern Great Lakes southward. I expect a reduced tornado threat, and, yikes…. potential blizzard conditions in Michigan and Wisconsin
It’s certainly not unheard of to have severe weather in March. In fact, it’s pretty standard for the first major spring storms to start appearing as early as mid-February nowadays. If there has been anything strange, it is that the storms haven’t been as problematic for Mississippi and Alabama, frequent targets for early season outbreaks.
This past week has featured deadly tornadoes in both Oklahoma and Michigan. Both locales are certainly accustomed to severe weather, but these outbreaks and the deaths because of them speak to the fickle nature of severe weather, rather than the particular strength of the storms in question.
In Oklahoma, there were two days of tornado related fatalities. The first came on the 5th, when a mother and daughter were killed in their vehicle in the northwestern part of the state. The guilty cell was an isolated supercell tracked from the Texas Panhandle
The storms were more widespread on the 6th, with storms, including a fatal storm in the Tulsa area. Certainly, it was unfortunate that such a storm would batter a large population center like this. Even more unfortunate was what looks like a single long track cell that went directly from Edwardsburg, Michigan to Three Rivers, Michigan to Union City, Michigan, doing this: along the way:
This storm claimed the lives of six in southwest Michigan. Aside from this cell, there were no other severe reports in Michigan. This goes to the seasonal reminder that not every tornado is in an outbreak, but all tornadoes can be dangerous. The highest threat level for those days was an “enhanced” risk in the southern Plains, while much of Michigan was labeled as marginal. It’s a reminder for added vigilance when storms are in the forecast, in case the 1 in 10 chance hits, and there are tornadoes, and your home or route is within the quarter mile width of the looming storm.
We do have more storms ahead. It is that time of year, when cold Canadian air is hanging on across the Plains, but the Gulf has started to pump heat and humidity back to the north. Our conflict zone tomorrow, will be from the Great Lakes to the Big Bend of Texas. There are enhanced risk zones at either end of the forecast thunderstorms. Be careful.
1:02PM: Oh, I did want you all to know: There will be a post later today, and it will probably not be specific to California.
9:47PM: The storms are coming tomorrow for the Plains and Great Lakes. but tonight, storms are winding down in the southeast, just where we would expect them to be this time of year.
11:55PM, Late night random thought: The Weather Channel has proven to be successful because they got the weather part of it right first. Even on the back end, they’ve been right more often than others lately. They have reinvested in clear communication. Like them or not, they are good at what they do.
It was a light posting month here at the Weather Blog, but the weather has still been wild. Fortunately, after two months, a clear cut, reliable forecaster has emerged. Two for two, The Weather Channel has won again.
10:17AM: March is definitely the weather’s silly season. There were severe storms, as the SPC called for. The deadliest storms were a series of tornadoes in southwest Michigan that claimed four lives and injured several more while moving through commercial and residential areas of Three Rivers and Union City.
Meanwhile, in Minnesota, we awoke to fresh snow.
8:27PM: Everyone I know in the north is celebrating the potential 60s tomorrow. It’s great that they are even coming on the weekend, but be aware that cooler air is returning from the west at, oh, about 50mph.
5:00PM: Severe weather is breaking out in the Plains again today, so please be sure to monitor your local weather service and stations. Elsewhere, things have returned to “nearly perfect” in southern California, save for some high winds in the hills north of Los Angeles. Thankfully, normal moisture has returned, and this wind isn’t coupled with a fire threat.
11:09PM – It’s late, but as you may know, we have seen some severe weather tonight, and earlier this week. I haven’t missed my chance, because there will be more!
Our next couple of forecasts are going to be in California. Very recently, the Golden State has seen some significant weather, but will that return any time soon?
At 1151AM, PT, San Diego was reporting a temperature of 81 degrees with clear skies. After some patches of rough weather earlier in the month, Southern California was back to living up to its reputation as a sunny, warm destination. On satellite, there is an obvious area of low pressure over the eastern Pacific that is trying to fold into the upper level jet pattern. It will weaken in the famously inhospitable to synoptic features eastern Pacific, but will arrive in northern California late on Saturday, with an associated cool front stirring things up a bit in San Diego, though failing to bring anything but fresher air by late Sunday. Tomorrow – Sunny, High 82, Low 60 Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 80, Low 57
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly to mostly cloudy. High 78, Low 56 Sunday – Some sun in the morning with increasing clouds during the afternoon. High 74. Low 55
AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy and warm High 77, Low 57 Sunday – Pleasant with sunshine and a few clouds High 73, Low 55
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 81, Low 61 Sunday – Sunny, High 78, Low 58
WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. High 81, Low 63 Sunday – Mostly sunny High 81, Low 59
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny, High 81, Low 61 Sunday – Mostly Sunny, High 77, Low 58
CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 74, Low 60 Sunday – Sunny, High 70, Low 57
Well, well, well. That is certainly an interesting array of forecasts, isn’t it? Wind flow and cloud cover are going to be quite impactful, but things are weird if there is a warm/cold divide and Weatherbug shows up on the warm side. Satellite looks great, with that low over the Pacific making its presence known.
At the beginning of February, we looked at the forecast in Janesville. From outlet to outlet, there were varying degrees of snow in the forecast for the 6th, from flurries to Clime calling for heavy snow. There certainly was snow in Wisconsin on that Friday, but none of it was reported in Janesville. It came down to temperatures, as it often does. The cool down was particularly well forecast across the board, however the warmth ahead of the snow was underestimated, leading to widespread forecast error. The real issue was how much the temperatures would cool that night, which meant that the warmest low temperature forecast ended up winning the entire forecast. The Weather Channel was the winner. Actuals: February 6th, High 40, Low 18 February 7th, High 24, Low 9
