New Haven, Connecticut

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I love the spring. Winter is such a long slog, and then you start getting this taste of warmth that brings along the first thunderstorm activity of the year. Even when it’s colder, you can bet it’s going to be interesting. Let’s knock out this likely entertaining forecast.

At 453PM, ET, New Haven was reporting sunny skies and haze. An occluded feature over Newfoundland is extending a cold front just to the south of Long Island. This boundary runs further to the east southeast and intersects a more vigorous feature centered over the Ozarks. The resulting languid pace of the boundary south of town will lead to high humidity, and clouds and overnight fog for New Haven in the immediate future.
The stronger low to the western low will progress northeastward, buoyed by a rapidly propagating, strong jet perturbation, will moves swiftly to the northeast. The front will back up and move north through New Haven, but without much moisture within the feature. A little bit of rain is possible overnight, but a warm early afternoon will follow. The cold front will arrive in the late evening, perhaps shortly after sunset, and will bring showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation will wrap up quickly, but Tuesday will be breezy and much colder,
Tomorrow – Early showers, late showers and thunderstorms with some breezy conditions. High 57, Low 45
Tuesday – Clouds clearing early, with breezy and chilly conditions. High 49, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies with periods of rain later in the day. High 56, Low 48
Tuesday – Mostly sunny skies. High 51, Low 37

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy and mild; a little rain late in the afternoon High 59, Low 49
Tuesday – Cooler with clouds yielding to sun (early rain) High 52, Low 34

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers likely, mainly after 4pm. Increasing clouds, High 57, Low 46
Tuesday – Sunny High 51, Low 34

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then partly sunny with a slight chance of showers in the afternoon, High 55, Low 48
Tuesday – Sunny, High 50, Low 31

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light showers likely, High 57, Low 46
Tuesday- Mostly sunny, High 46, Low 36

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain overnight and in the evening. high 59, Low 46
Tuesday – Possible light rain overnight. High 53, Low 35

The description of the precipitation is pretty different across the board, from the amount and intensity to the timing. No two forecasts are alike. Not much on the local radar display right now.

The west cools down

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Persistently, for years, the abnormally warm part of the country has been the west. It’s exasperated the drought, fanned wildfires and brought hundreds of millions of dollars of destruction to the region. Finally, the upper level feature preparing to bog down over the western US will be a trough. The long wave, slow moving trough over the western US will ensure below normal temperatures for a large chunk of the Pacific Coast and Rocky Mountains.

The coldest stretch will be in the second week of the month, and there is a good deal of forecast confidence in the below normal temperatures.

The colder weather out west will turn around by the end of the month, as the feature will start to propagate and surely bring severe weather to the Plains, given the temperature change over such a narrow swath of land, showing up even in these long term outlooks. Despite the coming warm up as this broad trough starts moving, the overall outlook for the month of March is for below normal temperatures in the west.

Rain will come to the Pacific Northwest but the trough is going to be far enough east that low pressure will generally develop in the Rockies. Not necessarily a drought buster for California, but perhaps an extension to the ski season will be coming soon.

Snow skipper

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If you like winter weather, the Great Lakes and New England are great places to be. Snow comes in heavy in that part of the world, and is usually the wet, dense stuff, perfect for snowmen and snowballs, and not the wispy inch or two you get in the Plains that aren’t really good for anything. What is worse than that, though, is when it rains. That’s all they got in Lima on the 11th, in the distant past when we issued our forecast for the northwestern Ohioan town. What a tease! Victoria-Weather saw it coming, though, and collected the top forecast in town, for our first win in 2022.
Actuals: February 10th, High 37, Low 28
February 11th – .12″ of rain, High 43, Low 28

Grade: A-C

Chicago, Illinois

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

The Chicago area covers a lot of territory, and even covers some smaller microclimates, wrapping around Lake Michigan as it does. The site we use to verify defaults to Chicago-Midway, so we will as well. Just know, what happens at Midway doesn’t always happen at O’Hare.

At 829PM, CT, Chicago Midway was reporting a snow with fog and low clouds. A vigorous southwest to northeast trough runs from Texas to the Great Lakes, and a perturbation in the Upper Midwest has led to a surface feature that is presently organizing over western Kentucky, extending an inverted trough through northern Illinois and bringing the snow that is being seen in the region. The low will continue to organize and jet off to the northeast, pressed on by the swift flow aloft.
After the surface system and abetting upper level perturbation aloft shift out of the region overnight tonight, expect clearing to take hold. The jet to the south will remain in place, keeping any hope for warmth at bay through the weekend, but the swift flow aloft will lead to some mid to high level clouds, which will keep it a couple of degrees warmer overnight. After flurries end early tomorrow morning, Chicago will be brisk but dry through Saturday.
Tomorrow – Early AM Flurries, then a bit brisk, mostly cloudy, High 30, Low 21
Saturday – Partly cloudy, breezy, High 36, Low 20

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy skies. A few flurries or snow showers possible. High 29, Low 24
Saturday – Sunny skies High 36, Low 18

AW: Tomorrow – A couple of flurries early in the morning; otherwise, mostly cloudy and cold; watch for icy spots in the morning High 29, Low 23
Saturday – Mostly sunny; breezy in the afternoon High 36, Low 19

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of snow between 8am and 2pm, then a chance of flurries after 2pm. High 29, Low 23
Saturday – Sunny, High 33, Low 18

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and a chance of flurries and a slight chance of light snow in the morning, High 27, Low 22
Saturday – Sunny, High 32, Low 18

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers, High 28, Low 25
Saturday – Sunny, High 34, Low 20

FIO: Tomorrow – Foggy overnight and in the morning. High 29, Low 20
Saturday – Clear throughout the day. High 34, Low 16

A little snowy in Chicago, but we are at the end of it. Only The Weather Service specifically directs to Midway in their forecast offerings, so we will see if that has any bearing on how things turn out.

Awards season

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We are halfway through February, and the schedule has still not permitted time to reward the forecasters of the month in December and January, let alone the forecaster of the year for 2021. Naturally, we have an opening just before a fairly significant weather system sets to blast the south central US. I’ve been giving a lot of updates to friends on that, so it’s time to take a step back to review where we have come from.

First, I will start with the December champion, because I’m sure that will be top of mind for everyone, and I like to give a shout out when an unusual champion makes a stride. Forecast.io won the month of December. Good for them!

With that in mind, we can also award the title for Forecaster of the Year. It was close for a lot of the year, and our winner was even in second place until about August, but then they surged and won going away. The Weather Channel was the strongest forecaster in 2021, and it’s hard to dispute this as a fluke. Way to go, TWC, you were dominant. Kudos to Weatherbug, who had the highest highs, earning the most individual forecast victories, but sloughing off when they weren’t at the top of the heap. It’s about consistency, not just the wins.

OutletForecast Wins (year)
Weatherbug16.99
Victoria-Weather12
The Weather Channel11.66
Forecast.io10.66
Accuweather8.83
National Weather Service6.16
WeatherNation1.66

And now, finally, we can conclude with the champion for the month of January in 2022. We were awfully light on the forecasting to start the year, but we can say, with confidence, that The Weather Channel didn’t let off the gas pedal, just because they started the new year. Congratulations for all the good news, Atlanta!

OutletForecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel1.33
National Weather Service1
Victoria-Weather0.33
Accuweather0.33
Weatherbug
Forecast.io
WeatherNation

Glazed Hickory

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The beginning of this month has brought a relentless cavalcade of systems moving along the east coast, keeping it snowy in New England and the Mid Atlantic and cold in the middle of the country. Where the two meet and merge with the south, AKA the southern Appalachians, it has been icy at times. On Monday in Hickory, there was .16″ of freezing rain, which is enough to cause a fair share of issues for locals. The temperatures climbed into the 50s on Tuesday though, which helped to clear things up. We put together a forecast last Sunday, and it was won decisively by Accuweather.
Actuals: Monday – .16″ of rain, High 39, Low 29
Tuesday – High 54, Low 30

Grade: A-C

Laredo, Texas to Lima, Ohio

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It’s the depths of winter for a lot of us, but this is close to the time that the southern US starts to wake up for Spring. We’ll traverse the heart of the USA for our 3 day trip from Texas to Ohio. It’s a 1,488 mile journey, at a pace of 67mph, which will lend itself to a 537 mile drive on the first two days of our trek. We’ll finish the drive on a shorter day in order to enjoy all that Lima has to offer.

DAY ONE (Saturday)

Laredo is the county seat of Webb County, Texas, United States, on the north bank of the Rio Grande in South Texas, across from Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas, Mexico.

Another surge if cold air is headed for Texas this weekend. An area of low pressure is going to bring heavy snow to the Great Lakes, but for our drive tomorrow, the trailing cold front will arrive in Texas early in the day. Rain will squeeze out in front of the boundary, but that should hold off until we get to Austin. After that, wind and light rain will be a concern through the early afternoon. Some wet snow could mix in before the rain ends while we approach Dalls. Clearer conditions will try to press in by the end of the day, but expect it to be chilly, and for some slick, icy spots on the roads. We’ll end the day in Winfield, Texas

DAY TWO (Sunday)
So much for the hints of spring I was hoping for. It’s still going to be cold for our route through the south central US. The deepest part of the thermal trough will align, essentially, with our route on Sunday, but fortunately, the precipitation will be confined well south of our route, closer to the Gulf Coast. The day will end in Bellevue, Tennessee, a southwest suburb of Nasville.

DAY THREE (Monday)
Another clipper is going to scoot through the Great Lakes to start the week, another in a series of similar features. This one will ride a bit further north of the tracks that have been in place lately, and won’t likely bring snow to Lima. Fortunately, Lima is in the one spot of northern Ohio that isn’t susceptible to lake effect snow, so expect some clouds, but a pretty generic winter day in Lima when we arrive.

Lima, Ohio

Lima, Ohio

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Sure I’m up late, but the Olympics are in Beijing, and on TV at all the wrong times. Speaking of the Olympics, these are the winter games, and Lima will get pretty wintry as we wrap up the week.

At 1253AM, ET, Lima was reporting a temperature of 37 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The southern end of a Canadian trough is moving through the Lima area tonight, but will be out of the hair of Lima residents entirely by the time the sun rises. It will shine brightly as clouds associated with the area of low pressure will shift northeast.
The next feature is a Clipper already forming in the Canadian High Plains. The heart of the feature will move through Wisconsin and Michigan on Friday, but the tailing cold front will sweep through northern Ohio. Snow is likely to arrive on Friday, heavily at times around noon, but mixed a bit with rain initially. It will then get colder with a few flurries possible through the afternoon.
Tomorrow – Clearing, but still partly cloudy, High 37, Low 30
Friday -Rain mixing with snow, around midday, flurries late, High 42, Low 28

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies, early snow, High 36, Low 31
Friday – Cloudy with periods of light rain, High 41, Low 27

AW: Tomorrow – A couple of morning flurries; otherwise, cloudy and colder High 38, Low 31
Friday – Breezy and milder; sun and areas of high clouds in the morning, then a mix of snow and rain in the afternoon High 40, Low 26

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, High 33, Low 25
Friday – Snow before 8am, then rain and snow between 8am and 11am, then rain after 11am High 41, Low 24

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow showers, High 36, Low 28
Friday – Windy cloudy, rain. Possibly mixed with snow in the morning. Then chance of rain in the afternoon. High 40, Low 28

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with slight chance of light snow showers, High 33, Low 24
Friday- Cloudy with light wintry mix, High 40, Low 24

FIO: Tomorrow – Overcast throughout the day. High 34, Low 23
Friday – Light rain starting in the morning. High 40, Low 23

This verification is going to be very interesting. A mixed assortment of precipitation forecasts, as well as questions about the temperature trajectory, especially for Thursday. I’m intrigued. Here is the satellite, with some clouds nosing in from Michigan. This isn’t much, and a more notable system is on it’s way.

Brisk for west Texas

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The Texas Panhandle was a chilly place to be at the end of January and beginning of February. Well, it was cold in Amarillo relative to most of the forecasts available, but Tuesday was actually quite chilly. Monday was in the mid-60s, but was still a few degrees shy of the forecast. Accuweather was on the low end of the forecast range, and had a very good total, winning the day.
Monday – High 66, Low 29
Tuesday – High 46, Low 32

Grade A-C