New Orleans, Louisiana

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’ve had quiet tropics, and the southern US is looking at more quiet weather this week, but even now, more than a week out and with nothing fully developed, the eyes of Louisiana are on the Venezuelan coast, where a tropical feature may develop and threaten the Gulf Coast. What before then? That’s where we come in.

At 856PM, CT, New Orleans was reporting fair skies with a temperature of 86 degrees. The satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico was a little bit murkier than the model analysis, which indicated the tail of a cold front over the northern Gulf, extending from Hurricane Fiona, bearing down on Nova Scotia.
As Fiona presses into the Canadian Maritimes, the attendant boundary will diminish. Low pressure in the Great Lakes will produce a cool front through the Ozarks, advancing southward. Though not expected to be terribly robust, it will be enough to induce an onshore flow, and a return of some clouds and spotty rain showers around New Orleans by Sunday evening.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 75
Sunday – Mostly sunny, late showers and storms in the area, High 91, Low 74

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 93, Low 77
Sunday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 94, Low 77

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy High 92, Low 76
Sunday – Humid with clouds and breaks of sun High 91, Low 75

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 90, Low 76
Sunday – Sunny, High 91, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 90, Low 76
Sunday – Sunny, High 91, Low 76

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 76
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 75

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid throughout the day. High 89, Low 76
Sunday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 90, Low 75

Pretty consistent numbers across the board, thanks toa fairly quiet pattern, for the time being. The storm near Venezuela was named Ian while I was writing this post. For the moment, he looks like he will curl into the Gulf Coast of Florida, but the most recent GFS has a bit more northerly track than the consensus. It’s all still pretty variable for now. Here is the currently tranquil satellite imagery..

Cooler and comfortable

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Overnight lows in the 50s are like gifts, no matter where you are, but especially in a place like Gadsden, Alabama, where the persistent summertime humidity makes the nights cloying and hard to sleep through. This past weekend likely led to a lot of well rested residents, especially since manageable highs in the mid 80s should have meant a lot was accomplished during the day as well. Victoria-Weather can be proud of our accomplishment, earning the forecast victory.
Actuals: Saturday, High 85, Low 55
Sunday, High 86, Low 59

Grade: A-C

Idaho Falls, Idaho

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’ve been dabbling out in the Great Lakes or southeast for so long, it seems about time to hone our skills out west.

At 953PM, MT, Idaho Falls was seeing clear skies and a temperature of 59 degrees. The western US was within a strong upper level trough, which was tiered and producing two separate surface features. A weak low and cold front lay over Canada, and at the base of the deeper trough, a low spun off the California coast. Idaho Falls sat between the two features, and was a position of calm. The trough was squashing monsoonal moisture to the osuth.
The low off the California coast will be the one to follow, as it will track along the existing jet structure. It will take until the afternoon on Wednesday, but it will arrive in eastern Idaho, pulling monsoonal moisture back northward. Rain and some isolated thunderstorms are expected in the evening in Idaho Falls, along with a few blustery gusts.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 46
Wednesday – Showers in the afternoon with isolated thunderstorms. High 78, Low 47

TWC: Tomorrow – A few clouds from time to time. High 84, Low 45
Wednesday – Partly cloudy in the morning. Thunderstorms developing later in the day High 79, Low 49

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and warm with the temperature breaking the record of 83 set in 1966 High 84, Low 45
Wednesday – Partly sunny with a thundershower in spots in the afternoon High 77, Low 48

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 82, Low 47
Wednesday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 83, Low 49
Wednesday – Mostly sunny with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms, High 76, Low 53

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 47
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with showers and chance of storms, High 78, Low 50

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 81, Low 50
Wednesday – Rain in the evening. High 72, Low 54

There is a big difference between the west and east of the Rockies. When amid a trough out west you can still get record highs. Let’s get the local perspective from KIFI in Idaho Falls

Summer claws back

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A fairly miserable little wave moved through the Great Lakes last week, bringing rain — too much in some instances — clouds and cooler weather throughout the region. It was a rather unpleasant weekend. By midweek, summer was ready to make a comeback, and nowhere appreciated that like Battle Creek. After a weekend of drear, temperatures were back up to 80 by Wednesday. Nice! Forecast.io had the forecast victory, thanks to that nice weater.
Actuals: Tuesday, High 73, Low 47
Wednesday – High 80, Low 55

Grade:B-C

August Forecaster of the Month

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I don’t know about you, but to me, August seemed totally nuts. As a result, at least for me, this meant fewer forecasts than I would like. Of course, we got to write quite a bit about how unbelievably quiet the tropics were, and how some heavy rain events were across the country. It’s not just forecasting here!

Your tax dollars have been at work so far this year, with the National Weather Service maintaining the lead they have had in 2022 with another victory, a decisive one, in August. Way to go, America!

Somewhat strangely, for individual forecast wins on the year, the NWS finds themselves in third, which just means they are consistent.

OutletForecast Wins (year)
Weatherbug6.33
Accuweather6.32
National Weather Service6.16
The Weather Channel4.83
Victoria-Weather4.32
WeatherNation3.83
Forecast.io3.16

Gadsden, Alabama

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It’s just a northern Alabama kind of day here at Victoria-Weather. Real question is whether we have learned any lessons since last go around.

At 356PM, ET, Gadsden was reporting mostly cloudy skies and a temperature of 82 degrees. A stalled boundary over the Gulf of Mexico was filtering out a lot of the otherwise typical heat and humidity, and high pressure entrenched in the region was backed by a pleasant air mass.
The prevailing flow will remain northwesterly, which should keep Gadsden relatively pleasant through the beginning of the week. A small perturbation will develop in the Bight of Georgia over the weekend, and stir up showers and storms, but this will additionally serve to staunch humidity in eastern Alabama for the weekend. This perturbation looks significantly less than it did in earlier runs, as it will likely be unraveled by what will then be Hurricane Fiona off the coast. This could lead to more clouds than expected in Gadsden, though it should stay dry.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 58
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 86, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – A few clouds from time to time. High 87, Low 61
Sunday – A few clouds from time to time. High 87, Low 63

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny; a beautiful start to the weekend High 86, Low 58
Sunday – Pleasant with plenty of sunshine High 87, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 88, Low 60
Sunday – Sunny, High 88, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 85 Low 60
Sunday – Sunny, High 86, Low 62

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 58
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 60

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 86. Low 61
Sunday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. high 86, Low 61

A lot of of popcorn cumulus across the region, but that’s what you get in the south. The real show is further southeast, and even then, it’s not very interesting programming.

A break in the right direction

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It seems to this Midwestern forecaster that lately, and especially in the summer, temperatures always sneak past the forecast highs. Apparently, that’s not how it works in northern Alabama! Temperatures failed to surpass 90 in HuntsvHuntsville, Alabamaille as August turned to September, and on the 1st, the low temperature dipped below 60. You can almost sleep in those temperatures! Unbound by our preconceived biases, Forecast.io did not fall into the too warm trap and had the top forecast.
Actuals: August 31st, High 89, Low 64
September 1st, High 89, Low 59

Grade: A – C

Battle Creek, Michigan

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

One of our most recent forecasts was for Battle Creek, but that doesn’t mean we’ve forecast for Battle Creek recently. Vacation, woo! Back on the horse in Kellogg’s Country.

At 953AM, ET, Battle Creek was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees with overcast skies. Tightly wound low pressure was centered northwest of Manitowoc, Wisconsin, and moisture and clouds blanketed the Great Lakes. Rain showers were for the moment avoiding Battle Creek, though some light activity south of South Bend was on it’s way. Shower activity were retrograding across northern Michigan, indicative of how slowly this disturbance was moving.
The upper trough birthing this surface low is phased with the primary jet stream, found over Hudson Bay. Even though the feature is moving slowly at present, it has motivation to progress to the east, by way of the upper trough. The rain in the area is likely to abate today, with the overcast hanging on through tomorrow, but by Wednesday, clearer, drier air is on it’s way, expected to put a pause on autumn for the time being.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, and a little bit warmer, High 71, Low 49
Wednesday – Clearing and warmer, High 77, Low 56

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower.High 72, Low 51
Wednesday – Partly cloudy skies. High 78, Low 54

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a shower in places High 72, Low 55
Wednesday – Sunny much of the time and nice High 78, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers before 11am, then a slight chance of showers after 2pm. Partly sunny, High 71, Low 49
Wednesday – Sunny High 78, Low 53

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain showers, High 70, Low 51
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 76, Low 55

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 72, Low 49
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 49

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 73, Low 48
Wednesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 78, Low 52

Not exactly the most pleasant scenario, but it could be worse. Battle Creek has avoided the copious rains that this system brought to Chicagoland. Here is a deeper dive from Wood TV’s Matt Kirkwood.

Huntsville, Alabama to Wilmington, North Carolina

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I am writing up this road trip forecast in the midst of a road trip that has gone awry. I got a flat tire and bent a rim after taking a mountain corner a little too wide, and am stuck until I can get my car fixed. I’m kind of along this route, though, in Spartanburg, South Carolina, so maybe that will help with the forecast. We will be able to cover the ground in one long day, and the route — south of Spartanburg — will be 599 miles long. Maybe it’s just me without a car, but it does seem like the pace here is slow, so 63.5mph, even when using interstates, sounds about right. Keep your eyes on the road!

Huntsville, Alabama

Late this weekend, rain really started to pick up along a stretch from western North Carolina to north Georgia, clearly induced by the ocean sided exposures of the Appalachians. The surface trough helping to enhance the onshore flow and subsequent rain is going to consolidate and shift off the mid-Atlantic coast towards Hurricane Earl. This will bring a slight reprieve in the showers from Huntsville to about Madison, Georgia. The threat for rain has continued to be minimal for much of South Carolina and central Georgia, though with the trough in place, the stretch from Columbia eastward stayed drier anyways. Mostly cloudy skies are likely, and after the threat for spotty showers ends around Madison, we should see dry pavement on to Wilmington.

Wilmington, North Carolina