Phoenix, Arizona

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Happy Mother’s Day to all the Moms up on Sunday night reading weather blogs!

At 551PM, PT, Phoenix was reporting a temperature of 80 degrees with overcast skies. The overcast was a high overcast, and not indicative of any significant weather in the area. There was a it of instability in the southwestern United States in conjunction with an upper level wave, but the shower activity has steered clear from Phoenix.
The tail of the jet providing the upper level instability for these showers and storms will pull west through Texas as the week begins. This will leave a weak upper level ridge in the desert Southwest, and Phoenix is in the clear to start the work week.
Tomorrow – Increasingly sunny, High 91, Low 68
Tuesday – Sunny, High 95, Low 75

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 94, Low 66
Tuesday – Partly cloudy skies. High 98, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 92, Low 66
Tuesday – Mostly sunny; warm High 97, Low 71

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 94 Low 65
Tuesday – Sunny, High 97, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny and warmer, High 92, Low 65
Tuesday – Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny, High 96, Low 71

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 94, Low 65
Tuesday – Mostly Sunny, High 97, Low 69

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 95, Low 65
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 98, Low 68

Looks like we are on the cool end. Hard to think warm thoughts when you are living a cool spring. Here is the satellite with a rogue thunderstorm closer to Yuma.

Not stalling

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OK, we’ve been sitting on this verification for a while. When you see how bad everyone did, you’ll think it was a stall tactic, but really, I’ve just been really busy. Denver is a tricky place to forecast for, and they pulled out all the stops during the last weekend of April. After a rain soaked Friday, Saturday dodged all the rain drops, and the clear morning skies meant the morning low was significantly colder than we bargained for. And then Sunday, it did rain a little bit. Strangely, that rain came with a significant warm up that outclassed meteorologist’s wildest dreams. All told, Victoria-Weather and Accuweather backed into a tie for the top forecast, but it will probably go down as the worst of the first half of he year, at least.
Actuals: Saturday (26th) – Hgh 67, Low 39
Sunday (27th) – Rain reported, not measured, High 78, Low 41

Grade: D-F

Athens, Georgia to Corpus Christi, Texas

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The only part of the Gulf Coast I’ve ever visited is in South Florida. this two day trek will sweep along the whole doggone thing. It’s a 1071 mile journey which will be paced at 68.5mph, despite travel through Atlanta and Houston’s sprawling suburbia. There will be a little bit more to day one, as we expect to cover 548 miles, leaving the rest for Wednesday.

Athens, Georgia

DAY ONE (Tuesday)
It’s not a sight we see too often from May to about October. There will be a solid area of high pressure camping in the region today and tomorrow. This is great because tomorrow, we are driving through the southeastern US! We’ll navigate Atlanta and Montgomery with no weather issues, making it to Robert, Louisiana on the northwest side of Lake Pontchartrain to finish off our day.

DAY TWO (Wednesday)
One of the busiest stretches of the Gulf Coast, weather-wise, is the patch between Houston and Lake Charles. Indeed again, we may see some storms starting to pop up in this area, particularly in the Beaumont area, but by the time we get through Houston, we should have nothing but sweltering highway ahead of us. A cold front is moving through north Texas, drawing that moisture in through Beaumont, but the relief will come much later to Corpus Christi.

Corpus Christi, Texas

Corpus Christi, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Whenever we can talk about inclement weather in the Plains, that usually means a steady threat of showers somewhere along the Gulf Coast. Is that place Corpus Christi for the next couple of days?

At 1051PM, CT, Corpus Christi was reporting a temperature if 75 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. There was smattering of clouds along the coast reflecting an onshore flow feeding thunderstorms along the dryline over west Texas. While there is indeed a strong system in the northern Plains, the threat of thunderstorms in the southern Plains was tied to the dry line, and is not going to move much further to the east.
There isn’t a lot of upper level dynamics at work in the southeastern US, but guidance is pinging on a surface low developing near Del Rio on Tuesday morning. This will tap into the return flow suppling showers further north, and begin to follow the same course. This will mean heavier showers and storms over the Corpus Christi region on Tuesday. It will be forced to oblivion as a stronger feature develops along the Colorado-New Mexico border.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 85, Low 73
Tuesday — Showers and storms, especially early, High 83, Low 75

TWC: Tomorrow – Variable clouds with thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. High 83, Low 73
Tuesday – Thunderstorms likely, especially in the morning…and becoming windy High 84, Low 74

AW: Tomorrow – A shower in the morning, then a few strong t-storms; storms can bring flooding and damaging winds High 84, Low 71
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy; a shower or thunderstorm around, breezy and humid High 84, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy High 83, Low 75
Tuesday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 85, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 82, Low 76
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms, High 82, Low 76

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered storms, High 84, Low 74
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered storms, High 85, Low 75

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain in the afternoon. High 82, Low 74
Tuesday – Rain starting overnight, continuing until morning. High 83, Low 76

Here is the satellite, with interior Texas looking clear, but a line of storms near the Big Bend.

Denver, Colorado to Athens, Georgia

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We are about as close to mountains at the start and end of this trip as we can get, but yet we will only spend a quick moment in eastern Tennessee contending with elevation changes. We’ll maintain a pace of nearly 70mph as a result, and cover 553 miles per each of the first two days, but leave a little more than half a day to get through the high country on Monday. The Plains are getting active. Is any chasing in order?

Denver, Colorado

DAY ONE (Saturday)
It’s become so active across the country that some systems are becoming unable to find a full wealth of energy and really get going. so it will be on Saturday as we drive the vast expanses of Kansas. There will be a front snaking through Nebraska and western Kansas, but it won’t be doing much, except producing a few gentle rolling clouds, and maybe…. maaaaybe a dry thunderstorm or light rain shower. The bulk of the moisture is going to be in the southeast, unable to reach the front attached to a low moving along the Canadian border. It will get even more serene as the day continues, and our day will end in Lawrence.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
A cold front will be sagging towards eastern Kansas by Sunday morning, but this is the rare case where heating of the day will actually serve to stabilize the region, and we should leave Lawrence with showers diminishing to the west. Tentative high pressure will set up between this fading band of showers and the retreating area of rain and thudnerstorms in the southeast. As a result, we will bisect Missouri, clip Illinois and Kentucky and reach Clarksville, Tennessee without much of a threat of rain.

DAY THREE (Monday)
I’m not sure you could ask for a better day to drive through Tennessee than next Monday. Temperatures won’t swelter, and the sun will be out. We’ll snake into Athens with only a few clouds in the sky, temperatures comfortable and a few hours to spare left in the afternoon.

Athens, Georgia

Sleeping in Savannah

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Savannah is a nice southern town, good for vacations, and things played out perfectly for out of town guests last week. First, temperatures overnight dipped into the 50s both Thursday and Friday morning which was cooler than had been anticipated, and then there was no shower or thunderstorm activity on Friday, as all the storms associated with a passing cold front were drawn north or shunted south of the city. Forecast.io was the only outlet to correctly call for a dry day, but Accuweather had cool overnight lows and secured the victory on their own.
Actuals: Thursday, High 86, Low 58
Friday – High 82, Low 59

Grade C-D

Coming Soon…

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Busy, busy, busy. We’re going to be very busy criss-crossing the country, but at least the conversation will be about thunderstorms instead of snow.

Corpus Christi, Texas
Road Trip from Athens, Georgia to Corpus Christi

Phoenix, Arizona
Road Trip from Racine, Wisconsin to Phoenix

Road Trip from Phoenix to Lima, Ohio

Road Trip from Philadelphia,Pennsylvania to El Centro, California.

Denver, Colorado

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Everyone everywhere says “if you don’t like the weather here, wait for 15 minutes” or something like that. Denver, though, is perhaps the most variable city in the country and we get to forecast for it! Joy.

At 1005AM, MT, Denver was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 59 degrees. These conditions belied an increasingly active p, Low attern in the northern Rockies, as a deepening trough is going to bring some precipitation to the higher terrains this afternoon and evening. It is a shallow amplitude feature and will sweep through the region quickly. There may be a splash of precipitation on Saturday morning.
The jet stream at this moment is shaped like a w, and the second lobe will strafe the northern Rockies on Sunday. As the trough emerges in the northern Plains, surface low pressure will develop, with a cold front tailed into the Denver region. This is he most likely time for the area to see wet weather this weekend, with a few afternoon thunderstorms, particularly east of town, a strong possibility.
Tomorrow – A bit of morning drizzle, then clearing, High 69, Low 47
Sunday – Late rain and thunderstorms, High 71, Low 42 (late)

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and some clouds. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 72, Low 48
Sunday – A mix of clouds and sun early, then becoming cloudy later in the day. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 74, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – sunshine and some clouds; comfortable High 70, Low 47
Sunday – Times of clouds and sun, a thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 72, Low 44

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 72, Low 49
Sunday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny, High 73, Low 49

WB: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy (late rain), High 69, Low 49
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms, High 70 Low 47

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 72, Low 49
Sunday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 73, Low 49

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy until morning. High 72, Low 49
Sunday – Partly cloudy starting overnight. High 77, Low 51

As is only fitting with Denver these forecasts are all over the map.

Going the Wrong Way

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With a feature moving through New England, it seemed fairly logical that temperatures would tumble in Springfield. It seemed even more likely that the rainier day, Monday, would be cooler than the drier day. As it happened, neither of these things were true, as the cloudier, rainier day ended up several degrees warmer than the drier Sunday. The National Weather Service correctly navigated the less than intuitive forecast for a victory.
Actuals: Sunday – .02 inches of rain, High 64, low 51
Monday – .46 inches of rain, High 68, Low 49

Grade: B-C

Savannah, Georgia

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I don’t know how Savannah got it’s name. It’s spelled different than the African savannas. Maybe it’s just because it’s so danged hot, just like a savanna. The extra h is for “humid”.

At 1153AM, ET, Savannah was reporting a temperature of 83 degrees with clear skies and a relatively manageable dew point of 59 degrees. There is a jet streak over the northern Gulf of Mexico which is at present providing the nearest cloud cover, as well as the nearest inclement weather, which is developing over east Texas and promises some headaches before the week is through in Savannah.
Low pressure is developing in East Texas with a jet streak that will phase into a broader jet trough that extends into the Canadian Prairies. Expect Thursday to remain fairly tranquil, if hot and humid, but showers and storms will be primed to arrive on Friday morning. The association with the broader trough will mean less organization in the storms over Georgia, and the pivoting nature of most high amplitude waves will reduce the chance of a real influx of cold air Friday evening. It will still rain and potentially storm a bit, but Friday would be much worse if these two features didn’t merge.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, increasing clouds, High 84, Low 63
Friday – Rain, maybe some thunder, generally clearing out in the afternoon, High 82, Low 64

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon. High 87, Low 62
Friday – Showers in the morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Thunder possible. High 81, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny; warm High 87, Low 61
Friday – More clouds than sun, a couple of showers and a thunderstorm; not as hot High 82, Low 65

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny,High 86, Low 64
Friday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 7am. Cloudy, High 80, Low 68

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 83, Low 63
Friday – Showers with a chance of thunderstorms, High 83, Low 67

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 86, Low 64
Friday – Mostly cloudy with showers likely, High 80,Low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy starting in the afternoon. High 83, Low 61
Friday – Mostly cloudy until afternoon. High 81, Low 66

Forecast.io is so bold as to think this system is going to dissipate before it even arrives on the Georgia Coast. Here is the satellite imagery with clouds over the northern Gulf.