After consecutive harsh winters, an early start to the below normal cold is not what most wanted to hear, but alas, we are already in the midst of it. Halloween is expected to be awfully chilly, and the beginning to November doesn’t project to be much more comfortable.
The 8-14 day outlook from the CPC, which will take us into the 11th month of the year shows that most of the country east of the Rockies is expected to be below normal.
The Great Lakes are going to be embedded in a fairly strong trough, and it isn’t likely to move very far this week. This trough will lead to a pipeline of moisture from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, including snow in the southern Great Lakes.
The trough is expected to be so entrenched that the Upper Midwest is actually going to be below normal for the second half of the month as well.
All right, friends, it’s about time we engaged in a cross country, 5 1/2 day monster of a road trip. we will cover a whopping 2,914 miles to get from the East Coast to central California. A lot of time on interstates will mean a brisk 66.2mph pace and 529.8 miles covered a day on those full days in the car. We might see snow, and we might see fires Sounds pretty dynamic, doesn’t it?
DAY ONE (Tuesday)
Salisbury, Maryland
Things will be off to a good start on Tuesday, with warm high pressure settling into he Appalachians and throughout the DC/Baltimore region. We shouldn’t have any issues, even with tolls, as we will be traveling the southern route through Ohio, the one that avoids the toll road, but not Columbus. We’ll stay in Lake Darby, a western suburb of the Ohio State Capital.
DAY TWO (Wednesday) I have some good news for Wednesday! It probably won’t snow! A warm front will reach north towards the southern Great Lakes overnight, and we will be in rain almost from the time we get moving. There is a chance at some thunderstorms over southern Indiana and Illinois, but by the time we reach Missouri, the cooler air will be moving in. The thunder threat will long be over, and instead a chilly rain will overtake the thunder. Maybe after we stop for the night in Devil’s Elbow in central Missouri, a wet snowflake could mix in.
DAY THREE (Thursday) Undoubtedly, our coldest day will be Thursday, Halloween. How cool is it that we will start Halloween in Devil’s Elbow? We’re going to contend with the remnants of a few snow showers for the first couple hours of the day, concluding before we reach Springfield, and then Oklahoma will simply offer a chilly wind as we nagigate the Sooner State. We will only just start to enter Texas when we call it a day in Shamrock, where west winds suggest we will finally be reaching a bit warmer air.
DAY FOUR (Friday) November will get off to a pleasant start. Nary a cloud in the sky as we head through the Texas Panhandle and New Mexico, and temperatures should start warming a bit too. We’ll stop for the night in Manuelito, New Mexico, on the Arizona border.
DAY FIVE ( Saturday) Another day on the road out west, and another day with little to worry about. We’ll navigate Arizona without a concern, and reach southern California where it will be much warmer than we are used to. The day will end near Barstow, but far away from the fire concerns near the coast.
DAY SIX (Sunday) I suspect that by next weekend, the fire danger in California will be significantly dampened. That will make for a less hazy drive through southern California. Madera looks to be in fine shape for our arrival.
Madera, California By Jcarrello – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=52965015
The big news story out of California is once again the wildfire season, aided heavily by a robust Santa Ana wind regime. Madera lies in the Central Valley, set away from the flaming hillsides in Wine Country and northwest of Los Angeles, and are under no threat from the flames, though those brisk Santa Anas will surely cause some concerns, won’t they?
At 853 AM, PT, Madera was reporting a temperature of 46 degrees with clear skies and calm winds. Other places further south in the Valley were reporting some light haze as the brisk winds on the hills and mountains of the Golden State was not settling into the Valley. The atmosphere is finally going to start doing some favors for the beleaguered region, as a strong trough is getting ready to dig into the Great Basin, breaking up the Santa Ana high, and allowing winds to subside. There will continue to be some breeze, though it will shift to become more north-northwesterly as a cold front tries to sneak into the area. With wind off the ocean and picking up the Kincade Fire of northern California, smoke and fog will become more likely in the Madera area Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Expect some cooler temperatures, though depending on the moisture transported into the region, those could be blunted by a lack of radiational cooling. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, with some haze possible, High 70, low 37 Wednesday – A bit cloudy with haze and morning fog more likely, High 68, Low 35
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 71, Low 37 Wednesday – Mostly Sunny, High 68, Low 34
AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sunshine, High 71, low 36 Wednesday – Plenty of sunshine, High 69, Low 32
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 39 Wednesday – sunny, High 68, Low 37
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, Patchy frost in the morning, High 69, Low 49 Wednesday – Sunny, patchy frost in the morning, High 67, Low 36
WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, low 39 Wednesday – Sunny, high 68, Low 37
FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 72, low 37 Wednesday – Clear throughout the day. High 70, Low 34
Not often that Victoria-Weather finds itself smack dab in the middle of things. The biggest surprise to me was that the GFS has a warming trend for Wednesday, and it was wholly rejected by all outlets. That doesn’t happen often. Here is the satellite image for central California. If you look closely, you can see the plume from the Kincade Fire north of San Francisco Bay.
A big blast of cold air is is continuing to dive nto the High Plains , setting up a fairly chilly end to the week between the Rockies and the Mississippi. We got that that kicked off with this:
Heavy snow falling now in #Amarillo with near whiteout conditions at 1250 pm. #Snow is beginning to accumulate on roads from near Amarillo westward. #phwxpic.twitter.com/dHgy8djFqL
The Amarillo WFO would later report 3″ of accumulation, which is a considerable total for west Texas at any time of year, but particularly in October. The snow fell on the back end of an area of low pressure that also swept a very active line of storms as far south as Brownsville, which lead to significantly cooler temperatures in the Lone Star State.
The sharp upper level trough that is serving as a host to this system will also inform as to where the feature will progress. It’s sliding back north in the Mississippi Delta right now, abnd will continue to the Great Lakes. The jet is going to regenerate in place, and at least for the next week, temperatures will be chilly in the Plains and Mississippi Delta, save for a brief warm up tomorrow afternoon.
This standing trough will mean a chilly end to the month east of the Rockies, and a Halloween that requires all the princesses and Iron Men to be bundled up, but it has other insidious consequences. The stalled trough has also led to a strong area of high pressure over the Great Basin, which has fueled the dangerous Santa Ana winds that are fanning the flames around Los Angeles this month.
Victoria-Weather stumbled on the forecast high last Friday in Toledo, but we came in hot for the Saturday morning lows and totally redeemed ourselves. Or should I say, we came in cold, remembering what happens with clear skies overnight, especially when coupled with a north wind. The low was even cooler than we forecast, but we had the coolest morning low on Saturday, allowing us to catch up with The Weather Channel and Accuweather, who were a bit better on that Friday high, for a three way draw. Actuals: Friday, High 59, low 36 Saturday – High 65, Low 35
A worst case scenario is a large tornado in a populated area, and it is compounded when it moves through at night. This super cell moved through the north Dallas suburbs in a coming together of some of the worst possible circumstances.
It could have been significantly worse though. The storm touched down just 15 miles away from AT&T Stadium, where the Dallas Cowboys were playing the Philadelphia Eagles in front of 75,000 people. In fact, despite the strength of the tornado (I’m guessing it will be at least an EF-3), and it’s long track, there were no reports of fatalities, and only 3 serious injuries.
The NWS hasn’t plotted the track anywhere yet, pending storm surveys, but in real time, the Google Maps traffic report was a good proxy for estimating the storm track:
The storm impacted many commercial areas, wrecking, in what I have seen so far, a Home Depot, a Land Cruiser dealership, and the home of the Dallas Stars’ Tyler Seguin.
Thanks to everyone reaching out about the news tonight, I am safe. Luckily this is my house for sale and I have moved into a new one. I just left the area and it is an extremely sad sight to see. Prayers to everyone affected by the tornado. https://t.co/wT6XlUBi8N
The damage reports will continue to roll in, and they will likely continue to provide stark imagery. Keep an eye on the NWS Fort Worth office Twitter feed for updates on the storm surveys. As the picture of damage becomes clearer, we will likely appreciate more how lucky we were that it wasn’t worse.
What would eventually become Tropical Storm Nestor formed late in the week, and dissipated shortly thereafter. It made landfall with a maximum sustained wind speed of 50mph. There was a storm in New England that had stronger winds than that.
Still, Nestor did provide his fair share of problems. When the center of Nestor arrived, it had been preceded by an off center, heavy batch of rain. Nestor is still a little off kilter. Note that his center in this radar image is actually around Tallahasee.
That’s a lot of rain, but certainly by looking at it, you wouldn’t say that it looks like a tropical storm, would you?
The primary impact the storm had, aside from the typical rain that comes with tropical storms, was a bout of tornadoes east of Tampa Bay. You can see where they ended up on the SPC storm reports.
There haven’t been the severe reports today out of the storm, and now that Nestor is on shore, he will continue to fall apart and get shoved back off shore.
Nestor has been pretty unremarkable storm, particularly when taken in contrast to some of the tough storms in recent years and months, but one needs only to look at the video below to understand that tropical features should always be given some respect.
Last weekend was a wet one in New England, and then, perhaps you heard, there was a ‘bomb’ cyclone later in this past week. As is often our luck, when we pulled the forecast for Boston, we found it between the two wet and windy spells. Temperatures were comfortable, especially without wind or rain. Speaking of comfortable, Victoria-Weather won this forecast… comfortably. Actuals: Sunday, High 67, Low 53 Monday – High 64, Low 52
Fall colors are in full bloom across the Great Lakes. Are there any leaf peepers headed to northwest Ohio?
At 1152AM, ET, Toledo was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 51 degrees. Toledo was on the back side of a strong system moving through New England, which resulted in a brisk northerly flow across the region. there was a tendril of clearer skies right over Toledo, but the back end of the clouds is over Wisconsin and Illinois. After some clear air gets to Toledo, the primary influencer will be a tropical disturbance developing now in the Gulf of Mexico, headed northeast across north Florida towards the Carolinas, which will sap moisture from a cold front advancing through the Upper Midwest. Ahead of the front, and on the back of the tropical feature, warmer air will filter into Toledo, with clouds likely across Lake Erie. Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, much less wind, High 56, low 35 Saturday – Partly cloudy and warmer, High 64, Low 36
TWC: Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. high 56, low 36 Saturday – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds., High 65, Low 38
AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sunshine High 57, low 36 Saturday – Partly sunny and pleasant High 66, Low 38
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 55, Low 38 Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 65, Low 42
WB: Tomorrow – Areas of frost in the morning. Mostly sunny, High 56, Low 41 Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 65, Low 41
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 55, Low 38 Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 65, Low 42
FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 57, Low 36 Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 67, low 38
A look at the satellite shows that cloud cover at the western flank of the big storm on the east coast.
