I thought we had turned a corner. On the winter, if there is a shadow of a doubt, leave precipitation in the forecast. On the summer, it’s easier to dodge rain drops even if it looks like storms are looming on a given day. Alas, I thought Lafayette was in the clear over this weekend with a short wave trough approaching. I was the only one who felt that way, but I felt really good about it. Of course, you know how this ends. It ends with Lafayette wet. Victoria-Weather could have secured victory if those .06 inches of rain hadn’t fallen, but instead, it was The Weather Channel and WeatherNation who split honors. Actuals: Saturday, High 53, low 19 Sunday – .06 inches of rain, High 53, low 38
While we’ve been knocked out of commission and also trying to get caught up with life, the weather has gone on unabated. While most of the country has been bouncing back from a grueling winter, our first stop takes us to Nebraska and South Dakota, which are undergoing unprecedented flooding, thanks primarily to snow melt, which has led to dam breaches, particularly on the Missouri, Elkhorn and Niobara Rivers.
These floods pale in comparison, somehow, and amazingly, to the catastrophic landfall of a cyclone near Beira, Mozambique. Cyclone Idai, all told will end up killing thousands in Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Malawi. Part of the problem, as is often the case with disasters in the third world is a failure of infrastructure, but another is that Mozambique has a natural barrier – Madagascar – that usually saves the country, and the region was less experienced with such catastrophes. Idai brought its strongest winds to Beira, a city of 300,000, then meandered through southeast Africa, with floods sweeping inland areas, driving up the death toll.
After all that, it’s tough to move to a different, more positive tale, but here it is” We were able to maintain our records, even if we weren’t able to keep our site up and running. We can say for sure that Accuweather had the top month back in February, which seems wild, since A) I can’t believe we are still thinking about February and B) they did it without much success on winning individual forecasts. Consistency! Congrats to Accuweather
Up until now, we’ve had to rely on our RSS feed to put together out verifications, but the first post back was forFayetteville, North Carolina. It had been written before The Incident, so it was actually valid for the days before it even posted, but that’s neither here nor there. The forecast, then was for Monday the 11th and Tuesday the 12th. I’m happy to say the weather in North Carolina was fine, because this post has already required quite a bit of explanation. I’ll just conclude by saying that WeatherNation had the win for the first forecast back from oblivion. Actuals: Monday, the 11th, High 72, Low 54 Tuesday the 12th, High 64, Low 39
Yes, it’s tournament time, so there is no better time than to salute my alma mater, Purdue University. They’re a 3 seed in the Big Dance, and nearly everyone will be indoors watching basketball in their home city of West Lafayette, Indiana, but we can give them a forecast anyways, I guess.
At 254PM, ET, Lafayette was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 47 degrees and brisk north winds that belied the high pressure stably in place over the region. Satellite gave a clue to the blustery conditions, as Indiana was clearly in the wash of a strong system moving through the Eastern Seaboard this afternoon. High pressure will remain in place across the Great Lakes tonight and through the day tomorrow, but the pattern aloft is moderately active, particularly in the Plains. A weak low will be bolstered by a sharp trough with weak flow through it in the Plains will start to approach the Hoosier State. Rain won’t reach Lafayette by the time the weekend ends, however some clouds will likely start to build. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 52, Low 25 Sunday – Increasing clouds late, other wise warmer, High 54, Low 37
TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly clear. High 51, Low 23 Sunday – Cloudy with occasional showers for the afternoon. High 51, Low 37
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny; chilly High 50, Low 24 Sunday – On-and-off rain and drizzle High 60, Low 35
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 53, Low 28 Sunday – Rain, mainly after 1pm. High 54, Low 40
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 49, Low 26 Sunday – Rain, High 50, Low 37
WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 53, Low 25 Sunday – Mostly cloudy with light rain, High 54, Low 40
FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the evening. High 54, Low 24 Sunday – Rain in the morning and evening. High 56, Low 40
Well, I’m not sure why everyone else has rain getting there so early. Please stay with us as we see just how wrong I can be! Here is satellite, showing that “wash” over Lafayette that I was talking about,
In our last forecast before “The Incident” we looked at Riverside, California, which was in the midst of a string of uncharacteristically rainy days as we approached the weekend. Ah, but what an allegory for our site, no? The good news was, things were starting to warm up as the next week began even if there was a little bit of light rain in the area. And now, with the website back up and running, we can see brighter days on the horizon as well! That said, the Weather Service had the top forecast for the day. Oh well. Sunday March 10th, High 59, Low 46 Monday, March 11th, Rain reported, not measured High 64, Low 41
Well, now we have all types of Victoria-Weather posts ready to roll on the reconstituted site, but our archives are still toast. Oh well, the weather continues on, as will we, on this two day journey from North Carolina to Iowa. It is 1090 miles between the two towns, and though this trip is approximately 2 even days, we’ll go a little bit further on day two. The first day will conclude after 519 miles on the road. all at a pace of 64.9mph. I think the weather is going to be pretty great, so let’s see if we can’t make even better time.
DAY ONE (Monday) Like I said, it looks like we don’t have a whole lot to be concerned with on the first day on the road. High pressure is taking over the country. Sweeping the nation, really. There may be some haze and what not as we pass through West Virginia, just because of moisture in the valleys, but it will only serve to make things more picturesque. We’ll make it to Beavercreek, just outside of Dayton, Ohio.
DAY TWO (Tuesday) There is a weak little perturbation expected to roll out of the central Rockies and cruise through the central Plains. It’s not going to be very strong, but it’s miniature stature means it will be fairly unpredictable. It will only reach southern Iowa by the time we finish our day, but there is enough uncertainty that I might just suggest to prepare for a few wet flakes anywhere from the Quad Cities to Waterloo. Slow down in Cedar Rapids, they have cameras.
Thanks to our RSS feed, which apparently doesn’t get purged just because the content of the entire website is obliterated, we still know the contents of our post for Ocean City New Jersey, before the big calamity. The good news for us is that the forecast went very well for us, as Victoria-Weather claimed forecast supremacy, even as we fumbled with our own very existence. A quick wave moved through town and lead to a bit of snow, thanks in large part to temperatures that were cooler than expected…. by everyone but Victoria-Weather. Actuals: Thursday, March 7th, High 38, Low 12 Friday – .07 inches of precipitation, reported as snow, High 41, Low 19
As you may have noticed, I blew up the site on Sunday night. Here it is, reconstituted and hopefully fully functional, with a revised background PHP. Let’s load test the site with all these forecasts:
All right, let’s do some forecasting! It’s getting into the thick of conference tournament season and everyone likes to pay attention to the state of North Carolina this time of year. We’re no different!
At 1053PM, ET, Fayetteville was reporting a balmy 67 degree with partly cloudy skies. A cold front has shifted to lie along the Carolina coast, with a stationary front extending east to west lying from Charleston, South Carolina to Montgomery Alabama. Fayetteville is currently lodged within the cool post frontal portion of the low moving into the mid-Atlantic, but will soon be under high pressure, which is developing in the eastern US over the next couple of days. Warm, dry days will start the work week. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 54 Tuesday – Sunny but cooler, High 67, Low 45
