Bowling Green, Kentucky

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

There are two Bowling Greens that I can think of. One is in Ohio, and the other is in southern Kentucky. Apparently, lawn bowling is a big deal in the Ohio Valley.

At 953AM, CT, Bowling Green was reporting a temperature of 34 degrees with clear skies. Things were unseasonably cold across most of the eastern United States under a stout dome of high pressure that has been in place for a couple of days now, but will offer a brief moment of respite in the next couple of days.
A bit of a thermal ridge is going to develop across the Ohio Valley, though the region is more broadly underneath an upper level trough, reactive to any perturbations along it’s path. One such wave will move southeast out of Alberta into the northern High Plains as the weekend continues. By early next week, it will mean precipitation for the Bowling Green area, but in the interim, simply expect a warmer return flow.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 54, Low 23
Sunday – A few clouds, even warmer, High 64, Low 36

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 53, Low 22
Sunday – Sunny, High 64, Low 36

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sunshine, High 52, Low 20
Sunday – Plenty of Sunshine, High 63, Low 34

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 52, Low 23
Sunday – Sunny high 60, Low 34

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny high 52, Low 23
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 63, low 37

WN: Tomorrow -Sunny, High 52, Low 23
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 60, Low 34

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 55, Low 23
Sunday – Clear throughout the day. high 64, Low 34

The weather is looking pretty nice for the weekend. It will be a good time to get out and take care of the leaves in the yard, I would say. The weather is going to take a turn again early next week. For the time being, take a look at the satellite. The white in Michigan is actually fresh snow.

Clouds come close

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It doesn’t happen often in the Front Range, and a city like Cheyenne, but it did early this week. The models did really well with the temperature forecasts, and forecasts were generally pretty good. If there was one thing that everyone got wrong, it was the clouds southeast Wyoming saw overnight. On the back of a strong upper level jet, layers of clouds developed, abutting the higher terrain and trapping warmer air overnight, leading to low temperatures that were warmer than forecast lows both on Monday and Tuesday. Weatherbug was undeterred, and collected the best forecast.
Actuals: Monday – High 42, Low 32
Tuesday – High 54, Low 31

Grade: B-D

Auburn, Alabama to Fond du Lac, Wisconson

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Today’s journey takes us along I-65, one of my old favorite arteries, running from Chicago to Montgomery, but we will end up both north and south of that highway by the time all is said and done. It’s a 2 day trek covering 931 miles. The first day will be longer, concluding after about 502 miles. We’re going to see some weather, so hopefully we make good time outside of the storms.

DAY ONE (Thursday)

Auburn, Alabama

The weather is going to be nice in Alabama tomorrow morning, as warm Gulf air is drawn northward, taking the edge off of the autumn by just a little bit. Nice! Of course, the reason it is going to move to the north is a massive, nasty cold front at the leading edge of a strong ridge of high pressure sinking into the Great Lakes. The resulting boundary will be in our path, starting with a few rogue showers and thunderstorms north of Birmingham, with heavy rain and wind, perhaps even severe, in Tennessee and southern Kentucky. The trailing air mass is going to be cold an dense, so the cut off from rain to clear air will be abrupt. Expect a change in wardrobe if we need to stop anywhere north of Bowling Green, Kentucky, The night will be clear when we call it a night in Scottsburg, Indiana, north of Louisville.

DAY TWO (Friday)
While the rain we see on Thursday is going to be a pain in the butt, it will come with a good navigational consequences, Sure, Indiana, Illinois and Wisconsin will be awfully chilly, they will also be sunny and dry. With a fresh bit of snow in Wisconsin, keep those sunglasses at the ready.

Fond du Lac, Wisconsin (C) Bryan Penberthy

Smoke from a not so distant fire

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I used the current fire map for the LA area as the image in the forecast for Santa Barbara to give a little perspective on the threat in the region as we started to look at the forecast. Even a few days later, the picture is wholly different, with some fires contained, some extinguished and more underway. Santa Barbara did seem to avert the worst of the fires this go around, though there was smoke reported most of the day on Friday as the Getty blaze raged and coupled with easterly winds. Victoria-Weather and Accuweather combined to net the top forecast in the area.
Actuals: Friday – High 73, Low 38
Saturday – High 78, Low 40

Grade: B-F

October Forecaster of the Month

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The month of October has come and gone. North America is bucking the trend of, well, essentially the entire planet, and saw generally a cooler than normal month, but it was marked by some very warm weather type events, like a tornado moving through the Dallas city limits. If anyone is going to handle a topsy turvy. high profile month like October was, the top spot is usually going to The Weather Channel, as it does this month.

OutletMonth wins
Victoria-Weather1.83
Weatherbug1.33
Forecast.io1
The Weather Channel0.83
WeatherNation0.33
National Weather Service0.33
Accuweather0.33
OutletMonth winsyear wins
Victoria-Weather1.8314.98
The Weather Channel0.8312.53
Weatherbug1.3311.91
WeatherNation0.338.14
Forecast.io17.95
National Weather Service0.337.81
Accuweather0.337.14

Cheyenne, Wyoming

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Strange that this is the furthest east we’ve been in weeks, isn’t it?

At 1053AM, MT, Cheyenne was reporting a temperature of 50 degrees with sunny skies and a brisk northwest wind of about 25mph in gusts. The off-mountain winds are certainly helping to bolster the warm up this afternoon. There was a weak ridge building in the front range as well, but most of the warm up at this time is mechanical in nature.
The upper level pattern is quite static, and a glance at the jet pattern looks to remain unchanged through the beginning of the work week. This means a tight thermal gradient just to the northeast of Cheyenne, which will result and a continuing brisk wind in the region. If the wind continues to be more westerly than northerly, Cheyenne will also be able to sustain some warmer temperatures.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 40, Low 26
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy but warmer, High 52, Low 30

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 43, Low 27
Tuesday – Sunny skies High 55, Low 29

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 43, Low 26
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and milder High 55, Low 28

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of flurries before 11am, then a chance of sprinkles. Partly sunny High 40, Low 22
Tuesday – Sunny, High 54, Low 23

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, Colder, High 42, Low 28
Tuesday – Sunny, not as cool, High 55, Low 30

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 40, Low 23
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 53, Low 24

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 43, Low 26
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 53, Low 29

A look at the satellite shows some striations in the clouds north of Cheyenne, which are caused by the strength of the jet through those clouds.

One off

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Madera was the first of our trio of California forecasts this past week, and was the city the farthest from fire danger. It came down to how temperatures were handled by forecast guidance. Victoria-Weather was off the forecast by one degree on every verifying time by one degree, low every time. That’s just as tough to do as getting the forecast exactly right, I would say. The Weather Channel was off by a couple of degrees at two different times, and V-W and TWC ended up with a tie in Madera.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 69, Low 36
Wednesday – High 67, Low 34

Grade: A-B

Santa Barbara, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Unlike our last trip to the Golden State, Santa Barbara is a little bit closer to the fires in Southern California, particularly the recently ignited Easy Fire, burning between Thousand Oaks and Simi Valley. What are we looking at for the next couple of days? Respite?

At 753AM, ET, Santa Barbara was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 39 degrees. Shielded by the Coastal Range, and seeing as it is fairly early in the morning, Santa Barbara was shielded from any blustery winds from the interior of the state.
In the next couple of days, a coastal trough is forecast to develop and should finally blunt the winds from the east. A little bit of latent moisture may even turn into a Marine Layer, sneaking up the coast by Saturday morning, making for a cool damp beginning to the weekend.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, with some smoky haze, High 74, Low 40
Saturday – Early fog, then clearing and hazy High 73, Low 42

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 77, Low 46
Saturday – Sunny. High 76, Low 48

AW: Tomorrow – Delightful with plenty of sunshine High 75, Low 40
Saturday – Delightful with plenty of sunshine High 74, Low 42

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 80, Low 44
Saturday – Sunny High 77, Low 46

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 73, Low 42
Saturday – Sunny High 73, Lw 46

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny HIgh 80, Low 44
Saturday – Sunny High 77, Low 46

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 73, Low 58
Saturday – Clear throughout the day. High 74, Low 61

There are some wild differences on the low temperature forecasts in Santa Barbara. Are these even all the same city? A look at the map shows that the fire danger is a little removed from Santa Barbara, but it should still be monitored.

A cool start to November is coming

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After consecutive harsh winters, an early start to the below normal cold is not what most wanted to hear, but alas, we are already in the midst of it. Halloween is expected to be awfully chilly, and the beginning to November doesn’t project to be much more comfortable.

The 8-14 day outlook from the CPC, which will take us into the 11th month of the year shows that most of the country east of the Rockies is expected to be below normal.

The Great Lakes are going to be embedded in a fairly strong trough, and it isn’t likely to move very far this week. This trough will lead to a pipeline of moisture from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, including snow in the southern Great Lakes.

The trough is expected to be so entrenched that the Upper Midwest is actually going to be below normal for the second half of the month as well.