We are getting ready for a heat wave in the southern US, we can reflect on last month, when things were just downright smoky. All manner of the US experienced the smoky weather, from the Northern Plains all the way to the East Coast. We put together a forecast for Kalamazoo towards the end of the month, and indeed, it got smoky there as well. It was so smoky, and in conjunction with an inactive cold front that passed through, temperatures were only in the low 70s on Tuesday the 27th, but rebounded uncomfortably th Wednesday after. Weathernation collected their first solo victory of the year thanks to a solid forecast. Actuals: Tuesday, June 27th, High 73, Low 59 Wednesday, June 28th, High 82, Low 53
We are undergoing the hottest stretch the planet has ever seen, and yet, the continental US has been fairly cool. That’s not a blanket statement, though, as the heat is on in the southwest, and Odessa looks to be in the crosshairs for some brutal heat.
At 753PM, CT, Odessa was reporting a temperature of 94 degrees with clear skies. Dew points were below 50 which is among the reasons that temperatures are able to soar during the heating of the day. Low pressure is centered over eastern Oklahoma, and cycling moisture into a lee trough, where severe thunderstorms have arisen from Colorado to the Texas Panhandle. Ridging has started pressing from the southwest already, though, and Odessa is expected to remain dry tonight. Sunday will remain hot and dry, and the jet will lift well to the north. A fairly strong area of low pressure will emerge in the Canadian Prairies, pulling moisture westward, and likely inducing a bit more activity out of the dry line. It will be plenty warm again on Monday, but there will be a few scattered clouds across west Texas in the evening to spell relief, though rain will predominantly stay in the Panhandle. Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 103, Low 78 Monday – Scattered clouds, High 104, Low 74
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. Hot. High 104, Low 78 Monday – A mainly sunny sky. Hot. High 105, Low 76
AW: Tomorrow – Breezy in the morning; sunshine and hot; stay hydrated when outside in the heat High 103, Low 77 Monday – Mostly sunny, breezy and hot; danger of dehydration and heatstroke if outside for extended periods of time High 103, Low 78
NWS: Tomorrow -Sunny and hot, High 103, Low 77 Monday – Sunny and hot, High 103, Low 77
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, Hot, High 102, Low 78 Monday – Sunny, hot, High 103, Low 78
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 103, Low 77 Monday – Sunny, High 103, Low 77
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 102, Low 79 Monday – High 104, Low 77
As I said, it’s going to be plenty hot, with temperatures well over 100, and it won’t cool down all that much in the evening. Tonight, looking to the north they may see some flashes of light on the horizon.
In looking at the forecast for heat across the southern US, temperatures will be dangerously warm, most anomalously so from El Paso to northern New Mexico, but as they say, it will be a dry heat. Sweltering humidity is going to make the Gulf Coast and areas north to Missouri and Tennessee painfully uncomfortable as well.
Cooler temperatures, relative to normal, are expected for the next couple of weeks in the north central US. Don’t be surprised if the south continues it’s blistering inferno. It’s all part of the hot summer we all get to enjoy in the northern Hemisphere this year.
I like this radar image, because it is so unusual for Florida. One isolated storm over Lake Okechobee, and another just out west of the Florida Peninsula.
Usually, you will see bands of showers, or a region wide smattering of showers and storms. The discrete cells aren’t what we usually see.
As was widely reported, yesterday was the hottest temperature in recorded history on the planet. This is a combination of anthropogenic climate change, El Niño and most of the reporting sites around the world lying in the northern hemisphere, where it is summer. That is to say, maybe it was a bit warmer in December, but too many sites were in the depths of winter so we didn’t know.
Before we get to this forecast in the Texas Panhandle, I want to note that with the looming collapse of Twitter, all posts will also be shared on Post.news and Mastadon under my RhinoandCompass handle. Now, it is the beginning of July. What do you think the weather is going to look like?
At 953PM, ET, Amarillo was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 81 degrees with clear skies. Temperatures are on the rise again after a dry line swept through uneventfully earlier in the week. Dew points are back in the low 50s after surging over 60, an unusual event for the Texas Panhandle in the heart of summer. The cold front htat pushed the dry line along is bringing some shower activity to the Oklahoma Panhandle, but will not have the juice to reach Amarillo. The jet is well aloft and fairly weak, but enough to tap into the instability of the northern Plains. The cold front noted earlier is draped through the Prairies of the central States to the Panhandles. Though this is the feature that compelled the dry line eastward, it will also pose a threat for some rain and clouds as the boundary sinks to the south on Wednesday evening. Expect some more humidity and likely some cooler temps also on Thursday. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 68 Thursday – Isolated morning storms High 87, Low 65
TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 93, Low 69 Thursday – Partly cloudy skies. High 88, Low 65
AW: Tomorrow – Sunshine mixing with some clouds High 92, Low 68 Thursday – A heavy thunderstorm in the afternoon; storms can bring flooding downpours, hail, damaging wind gusts, and an isolated tornado High 84, Low 64
NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, Late storms, High 92, Low 70 Thursday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am. Some of the storms could be severe. Partly sunny, High 87, Low 65
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (late showers/storms) High 89, Low 69 Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 85, Low 65
With the collapse of Twitter, I am trying to experiment with some short form posting (category – Update) since the longer, regular posts are so sporadic these days. Since my posts feed to Twitter (for now) and Facebook, they are still visible for most of the regular audience. Let me know what you think!
Don’t be intimidated by the shower activity presently where you are, because it may not be indicative of where the storms will be for fireworks tonight. I’m specifically thinking of places like Oklahoma/Texas/Arkansas.
That said, storms may reemerge in the upper Midwest later this afternoon. As always, paying attention to the forecast is the way to go!
