from Victoria-Weather
There was certainly some rain in the forecast with the next round of wet weather coming through, but there was a question of timing, and it always makes me wonder what the radar signatures will look like when it comes to pass. Well, the heavy rain has moved on from Harrisonburg, which is good news for those hoping for a dry Sunday. The rain has been quite steady too, especially in the lower terrain south of Harrisonburg through the center of the state.
Organized rain and thunderstorms from New England to the Mid Atlantic continue to be an issue through the next 48 hours or so, followed by life getting considerably better. Undoubtedly, there will be more rain and thunder somewhere in the country, but the focused, widespread activity is going to take a little bit of a break.
A system working it’s way through the country is temporarily bringing some more comfortable weather across the middle of the country. Of course, there is more smoke behind this system, and there is a lot of red skied sunsets across the northern Plains tonight. And of course, it’s going to roast again. Check out the next several day forecast out of Wichita.
We’re heading to northern Virginia, and are going to be in for some sultry conditions headed into the weekend. Let’s see how stuffy we can get.
At 1215PM, ET, Harrisonburg was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with clear skies and a steamy dew point of 71. There are a few clouds in nearby Staunton, and there is lingering moisture across the coastal Plain area from the Chesapeake south through the Carolinas which will continue to diminish through the day today. It is left over from the previous round of wet weather, and as the next system moves from the Great Lakes, expect Harrisonburg to scour out a bit, with clear skies coming in.
That next system will approach from the west by Saturday afternoon. The latent moisture in the region will mean there is a better chance for some rain and storms as the system climbs over the mountains than typically seen in eastward moving systems in Harrisonburg. There is a great deal of disagreement on the timing of this feature, with one model suggesting that the system won’t arrive until Sunday. As a result, rain and storms will be in both days’ forecast, but there is a better chance that the precipitation will be stormier on Saturday evening. There is some hope for clearing on Sunday afternoon, so the weekend won’t be a total loss.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with some late thunderstorms, High 89, Low 65
Sunday – Scattered showers, with some clearing potentially late. Less humid, High 88, low 68
TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine in the morning with more clouds for later in the day. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. high 88, Low 64
Sunday – Partly cloudy skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 86, Low 69
AW: Tomorrow – Clouds and sunshine with a heavy thunderstorm around High 87, Low 64
Sunday – Mostly cloudy (early storms) High 87, Low 70
NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, partly sunny, High 89, Low 66
Sunday – A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 69
WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 86, Low 67
Sunday – Mostly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 84, Low 68
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and a chance of storms, High 89, Low 67
Sunday – Partly cloudy (early storms), High 89, Low 69
CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 88, Low 63
Sunday – Light rain showers, High 88, Low 68
As one might expect with models in conflict, there is disagreement on how to sort out this forecast. Have a glance at the local forecast from WSHV’s Ben Beddoes to get a little bit of clarity.
Thunderstorms moved into Amarillo after the 4th of July as the dry line finally shifted east and away from West Texas. on the 5th and 6th, as a system moving through the northern US dragged it into oblivion. As it usually does, it set off some nocturnal convection, which nearly everyone had in the forecast. I don’t feel bad for the outlets that left thunder out of the forecast for the 6th, as there were a solid 5 or 6 hours of stormy weather. Everyone who kept it dry on the 5th though, you were right, up until the 1156PM observation, when scattered storms were reported at KAMA. That’s tough. The Weather Service and WeatherNation had storms on both days of the forecast period, and WeatherNation narrowly edged the Weather Service to earn an Amarillo A+
Actuals: Wednesday, July 5th, Storms reported late, no accumulation, High 91, Low 69
Thursday, July 6th, .04″ of rain in thunderstorms, High 87, Low 63
Grade: A-C
Today has been a scary severe weather day, with the tornadoes in Chicago. There is ongoing severe weather in Lower Michigan and in the middle of the country from Missouri to Kansas. The severe weather will return tomorrow, coupled with more flash flooding possible in New England, Vermont in particular. Severe weather is coming from the Eastern Great Lakes, through the Ohio Valley, as well as in the high Plains – tornado alley. Friday is going to be quieter, and right now, at least, it looks even better for the weekend.
The tail end of a tornado outbreak is wrapping up in Chicago. Unfortunately, the densest population in Chicago is on the Lake, so the worst may still be to come. Look at the radar progression this evening, as those tornado reports crop up through the evening.
There have been reports of damage that started in Huntley with roofs and tree damage, then more to the south around La Grange, with the final set of reports coming from Bloomingdale to O’Hare Airport. Having a tornado outbreak in a metropolitan area as densely populated as Chicago is a scary scenario, and we will await news from the authorities, as storms roll out into the Lake.
Another line of thunderstorms decides to develop 2 hours behind the first batch
With the severe weather further to the east, hot dry air is billowing up the Front Range. Highs in Denver are expected to be in the 90s through Thursday, at which point a rainier spell will settle in.
Denver is typically at the border between two worlds, one mountainous, the other empty plains. Lately, they have also been along an oscillating lee trough, touching off strong thunderstorms throughout the area.
At 853PM, MT, Denver was reporting a temperature of 70 degrees with fair skies. Thunderstorm activity has finally started to leave eastern Colorado and western Kansas in piece, as a weak upper level ridge has settled in place over the central Rockies.
For the next couple of days, the primary factor in the ignition of showers and storms will be a dry line that will initially be too far south to bring any wet weather to the Mile High City, and shift east into the Plains. Denver will continue to warm and dry out as the week begins.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, Hot, High 91, Low 61
Tuesday – Mostly sunny and even warmer, High 97, Low 63
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 91, Low 61
Tuesday – Sunshine and some clouds. Hot. High 97, Low 63
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 91, Low 58
Tuesday – Very warm with plenty of sunshine High 97, Low 61
NWS: Tomorrow – Very warm with plenty of sunshine High 95, Low 60
Tuesday – Sunny High 95, Low 62
WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 92, Low 61
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 96, Low 61
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 95, Low 60
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 62
CLI: Tomorrow – Light Rain Showers, High 87, Low 61
Tuesday – Sunny, High 94, Low 62
Clime looks to be on a slightly different planet than the rest of the forecasters her. In fact, I would say if this forecasts busts, it will be because the temperature is even warmer tomorrow. Satellite tonight is awfully quiet.
