Tampa, Florida

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’re headed to Florida for the second time in a row, and headed a bit closer to the ocean. Can you believe people live in cities that don’t touch the sea in Florida?

At 353PM, ET, Tampa was reporting a temperature of 93 degrees with mostly sunny skies. The interaction of three primary features will dictate the weather through the end of the work week in Tampa: Hurricane Larry in the north Atlantic, surface feature southwest of Tallahassee, and low pressure in eastern Canada. At this time Larry and the tropical low are helping steer much moisture away from Tampa, and south Florida is fairly clear this afternoon, aside from patchy clouds near the coasts.
Larry and the low in the Gulf will interact with the Canadian feature, which is presently dangling a cold front through the southeastern US. The boundary will tap into the moisture of the low, and increase the thunderstorm threat tomorrow in Tampa. Larry will stall the boundary over the Atlantic, and turn to be subsumed by the Canadian Low. This will cause the boundary to stall across Florida, but will also interrupt the length of the boundary. Forward momentum and shear will be lost, but some scattered showers and storms will still be able to tap into the sea breeze and local moisture on Friday.
Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms, High 89, Low 78
Friday – Isolated storms, High 89, Low 78

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers early, becoming a steady rain later in the day. High 86, Low 78
Friday – Mixed clouds and sun with scattered thunderstorms. High 88, Low 77

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a thunderstorm; breezy High 87, Low 78
Friday – Widely separated morning thunderstorms; otherwise, mostly cloudy High 89, Low 77

NWS: Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny High 88, Low 78
Friday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny High 89, Low 77

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms, High 86, Low 78
Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms High 88, Low 77

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 86, Low 76
Friday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 89, Low 76

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 87, Low 77
Friday – Humid and mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 89, Low 77

I think a lot o these forecasts are too cool for tomorrow. I don’t think it will be as rainy as many suspect, and it hit the 90s today. We shall see. Here is the local satellite, with low pressure in the northeast Gulf, and clouds ringing the peninsula.

Going all in

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Central California was in the midst of a hot streak over Labor Day weekend, and Madera was no exception. My general rule of thumb for the heat, and with sunny skies is to always bet on the over. That is to say, it will probably be a little warmer than the forecast. Also, in clear dry nights, the temperature bottoms out a bit lower than the forecast. By following those two rules of thumb, Victoria-Weather was able to collect the victory in central California.
Actuals: Sunday – High 100, Low 55
Monday – High 103, Low 61

Grade: B-D

Gainesville, Florida

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Hey gang! Happy Labor Day, I hope you are enjoying this last breath of summer. Of course, it goes along with the first real weekend of college football, so one foot in the summer, one in the fall, and I think Gainesville is a good nexus for that. Warmth and college football.

At 1253AM, ET, Gainesville was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 75 degrees. Generally pleasant conditions were in place across the Sunshine state, with a few spots of clouds. Morning haze is probably on the horizon, given the typically high dew points and the clear overnight conditions. Low pressure was present in the Gulf of Mexico, but it doesn’t pose a likely tropical threat.
Flow, however, was derived in part from the low in the Gulf, and was associated with via a long range of baroclinicity, with a system in Canadian Maritimes. The southwest to northeast flow is going to be a fixture over north Florida for the week. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase later in the week, but some pop up afternoon storms will be possible on Monday and Tuesday as well.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, with isolated thunderstorms, High 92, Low 72
Tuesday – Scattered showers with thunderstorms, High 91, Low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 89, Low 71
Tuesday – Partial cloudiness early, with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 90, Low 72

AW: Tomorrow – Periods of clouds and sunshine High 88, Low 71
Tuesday – Sun and some clouds with a thunderstorm in a couple of spots in the afternoon High 88, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 69
Tuesday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Patchy fog between 7am and 8am. Otherwise, sunny, High 90, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms, High 88, Low 72
Tuesday – Sunny in the morning then partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 88, Low 73

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms, High 90, Low 70
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms, High 90, Low 72

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 89, Low 72
Tuesday – Possible light rain in the evening. High 87, Low 73

All of us are dancing around the same numbers. I am going warmer this afternoon, but others don’t believe the guidance like me. Anywho, here is the satellite imagery for this evening across Florida. Not much that far south.

A small taste of autumn

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While for many, it has been a long, hot summer, it’s actually been a bit truncated and cooler than normal in the southeastern United States. The remnants of Ida caused terrible destruction in the Northeast, all while trailing a cold front that developed as the storm became extra tropical, which tailed through north Florida as we forecast for Hinesville on Wednesday. As the work week concluded, Hinesville was able to enjoy some mild temperatures, along with the sunshine. It’s not often they get to see those two in concert, particularly in the summer. Also rare was Forecast.io’s solo victory.
Actuals: Thursday – High 90, Low 73
Friday – High 86, Low 67

Grade: A-B

August Forecaster of the Month

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Hurricane Ida made her landfall at the end of August, and continued to the eastern Seaboard to provide devastating rainfall and flash flooding before she expired at the beginning of September. Ida was an extraordinary storm, both for the strength at landfall, (and the forecast accuracy as it arrived, which definitely saved lives) and the flash flooding rains, which led to the second flash flood emergencies ever issued by the New York City office of the National Weather Service — the first was earlier in the month with Henri. It exposed the poor infrastructure of the region, which is ill equipped for torrential rains. which will only become more likely as we head into the future.

We had a lot of forecasts in the month of August, and some were impacted by the broad scope of Ida. Otherwise, heat and a break to some drought issues in the upper Midwest were the theme for the months. The Weather Channel concluded the month of August with the victory, followed closely by Weatherbug, a tandem that owns a tie at the top so far in 2021.

OutletForecast Wins (year)
Weatherbug10.66
Victoria-Weather7
The Weather Channel6.33
Accuweather5.83
Forecast.io3.83
National Weather Service3.16
WeatherNation1.16

Hinesville, Georgia to Madera, California

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We’re ending the summer with a long trip across the country. It will take 4 and a half days, covering 2568 miles. That puts us on a brisk pace of 69.4mph, which won’t seem as great, since we will be on this pace for the better part of a week. The result of each day of driving will be 555 miles traveled. Not bad at all, actually, even if it will still take until Thursday to arrive.

DAY ONE (Sunday)

Hinesville, Georgia

Low pressure in the Great Lakes is demonstrating a nearly perfect comma shape, dangling a cold front from its eastern periphery southwestward towards the southern Plains. The front itself is in pretty rough shape, speaking of precipitation, and isn’t bringing a wintry onslaught, thanks to another system up in northern Canada., but it is going to dangle into our day one route. driving through Georgia and Alabama should mostly be ok, but some isolated showers and storms may pop up at the end of the day’s drive near the Alabama-Mississippi border. They shouldn’t be too obtrusive, but certainly possible. The day ends in Hickory Flat, Mississippi.

DAY TWO (Monday)

The front will be behind us as we leave on Labor Day morning, and while it will probably be cloudy until we hit Arkansas, it shouldn’t be rainy. The sun will be out not long after we reach Arkansas, and we will enjoy the sunshine all the way to Yukon, an Oklahoma City suburb.

DAY THREE (Tuesday)

Even a subsequent area of low pressure churning through the northern Plains and Great Lakes won’t be enough to pull up a return flow into west Texas. The drive from Oklahoma to New Mexico will be dusty and lonely. We’ll make it past Albuquerque, and the day will conclude in Highland Meadows, which is about 20 minutes west of Albuquerque.

DAY FOUR (Wednesday)

The drought continues in the west, and as if to confirm that for us, we will drive through Arizona, which is desertified at the best of times, and end our drive in the Mohave Natural Preserve about an hour into California. About 5 hours left for our Thursday in some blistering heat.

DAY FIVE (Thursday)

Make sure that AC is working. We’ll turn north at Barstow, and it will remain plenty toasty all the way up past Fresno and into Madera. Don’t be surprised if 110’s buckle roads for the last stretch of the drive. Some clouds my finally cool things down on our first full day in Madera, but it sure will be hot when we arrive.

Madera, California

Madera, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’re off to the central Valley of California today, to reexamine one of the ongoing hardships wrought upon our planet this summer. Drought continues in California, with fires east of the Madera area. Is there hope on the way?

At 1153AM, PT, Madera was reporting sunny skies and a temperature of 87 degrees. There was a heat advisory in place for the central Valley and the southern California high country along the Nevada border was under an excessive heat watch. High pressure on the west coast was particularly robust and allowing of the abnormal heat.
Low pressure is spiraling independently in the eastern Pacific, and it will give a guide to the shape of the surface ridge through the next couple of days. It will ride well off shore north to the Gulf of Alaska low and begin to merge with that feature. the ridge in the west will change generally unchanged, but the onshore will carry over the Coastal Range and only make it hotter by Monday.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 101, Low 58
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 103, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine High 102, Low 58
Monday – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 104, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot; danger of dehydration and heat stroke if outside for extended periods of time High 99, Low 59
Monday – Mostly sunny and hot; danger of dehydration and heat stroke if outside for extended periods of time High 103, Low 63

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, high 98, Low 61
Monday – Mostly sunny and hot High 101, Low 65

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 99, Low 62
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 103, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 99, Low 59
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 102, Low 64

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 98, Low 63
Monday – Clear throughout the day. High 101, Low 67

A look at the satellite imagery shows smoke in the clouds across the Sierras, but not much in the way of onshore cloud cover.

Hinesville, Georgia

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

The coast of Georgia seems to be growing as a tourist destination. Now that we are headed to the autumn, it’s time to start thinking about going some place war.

At 836PM, ET, Hinesville was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with partly cloudy skies. The remnant Ida remains impactful over the mid – Atlantic, where tornado watches are bracketing the New York City area, but as it reaches the higher latitudes, it is demonstrating traits of a subtropical low, including a ranging cold front that slides south of the Brunswick area. Showers and thunderstorms are seen as near as Valdosta, but is moving away from Hinesville.
The boundary is expected to act as a barrier to onshore flow for the remainder of the work week. Expect a mostly sunny start to September, though the stalled boundary, which will be over north Florida Thursday and Friday, will lead to some waves of clouds in Hinesville.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 89, Low 72
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny along with a few clouds. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 89, Low 72
Friday – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High 86, Low 68

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sun High 89, Low 74
Friday – Partly sunny; noticeably less humid than recent days High 87, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5pm. Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 71
Friday – Sunny, High 89, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 88, Low 74
Friday – Sunny, High 85, Low 71

WN: tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 90, Low 71
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 89, Low 73
Friday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 87, Low 68

I think the storm activity will stay to the south of Hinesville, but it appears to be a point of contention among the various outlets. Here is a look at the satellite, showing some storms in south Georgia.

Failing to meet expectations

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It seems like in so many circumstances lately, the weather has met the extreme ends of forecasts. Intensity, heat, rainfall, it just seems that we are reaching the worst case scenario all too often. When we get a record high potential in the forecast, as we had in Hickory for the past weekend, and it fails to come close, that seems like big news too! Instead of surpassing the mid-90s record highs over the weekend, It didn’t even hit 90 on Sunday, and stopped at 90 on Saturday. Weatherbug is usually helped by forecasts that stay on the cool side, and it was no different in Hickory. WB gets the W.
Actuals: Saturday – High 90, Low 70
Sunday – High 89, Low 70

Grade B-C