Madera, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’re off to the central Valley of California today, to reexamine one of the ongoing hardships wrought upon our planet this summer. Drought continues in California, with fires east of the Madera area. Is there hope on the way?

At 1153AM, PT, Madera was reporting sunny skies and a temperature of 87 degrees. There was a heat advisory in place for the central Valley and the southern California high country along the Nevada border was under an excessive heat watch. High pressure on the west coast was particularly robust and allowing of the abnormal heat.
Low pressure is spiraling independently in the eastern Pacific, and it will give a guide to the shape of the surface ridge through the next couple of days. It will ride well off shore north to the Gulf of Alaska low and begin to merge with that feature. the ridge in the west will change generally unchanged, but the onshore will carry over the Coastal Range and only make it hotter by Monday.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 101, Low 58
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 103, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine High 102, Low 58
Monday – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 104, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot; danger of dehydration and heat stroke if outside for extended periods of time High 99, Low 59
Monday – Mostly sunny and hot; danger of dehydration and heat stroke if outside for extended periods of time High 103, Low 63

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, high 98, Low 61
Monday – Mostly sunny and hot High 101, Low 65

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 99, Low 62
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 103, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 99, Low 59
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 102, Low 64

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 98, Low 63
Monday – Clear throughout the day. High 101, Low 67

A look at the satellite imagery shows smoke in the clouds across the Sierras, but not much in the way of onshore cloud cover.

Hinesville, Georgia

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

The coast of Georgia seems to be growing as a tourist destination. Now that we are headed to the autumn, it’s time to start thinking about going some place war.

At 836PM, ET, Hinesville was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with partly cloudy skies. The remnant Ida remains impactful over the mid – Atlantic, where tornado watches are bracketing the New York City area, but as it reaches the higher latitudes, it is demonstrating traits of a subtropical low, including a ranging cold front that slides south of the Brunswick area. Showers and thunderstorms are seen as near as Valdosta, but is moving away from Hinesville.
The boundary is expected to act as a barrier to onshore flow for the remainder of the work week. Expect a mostly sunny start to September, though the stalled boundary, which will be over north Florida Thursday and Friday, will lead to some waves of clouds in Hinesville.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 89, Low 72
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny along with a few clouds. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 89, Low 72
Friday – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High 86, Low 68

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sun High 89, Low 74
Friday – Partly sunny; noticeably less humid than recent days High 87, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5pm. Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 71
Friday – Sunny, High 89, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 88, Low 74
Friday – Sunny, High 85, Low 71

WN: tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 90, Low 71
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 89, Low 73
Friday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 87, Low 68

I think the storm activity will stay to the south of Hinesville, but it appears to be a point of contention among the various outlets. Here is a look at the satellite, showing some storms in south Georgia.

Failing to meet expectations

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It seems like in so many circumstances lately, the weather has met the extreme ends of forecasts. Intensity, heat, rainfall, it just seems that we are reaching the worst case scenario all too often. When we get a record high potential in the forecast, as we had in Hickory for the past weekend, and it fails to come close, that seems like big news too! Instead of surpassing the mid-90s record highs over the weekend, It didn’t even hit 90 on Sunday, and stopped at 90 on Saturday. Weatherbug is usually helped by forecasts that stay on the cool side, and it was no different in Hickory. WB gets the W.
Actuals: Saturday – High 90, Low 70
Sunday – High 89, Low 70

Grade B-C

Spokane sees a refresh

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Temperatures in Spokane were downright delightful last week. After a long hot summer, they deserved the mid – 70s that they saw, though admittedly, the bit of drizzle early Friday morning was a bit of a tease, given the wildfires and drought encompassing the western US this summer. The Weather Channel collected the top forecast of the day, narrowly, and would have had something special if only they had accounted for the drizzle.
Actuals: Thursday – High 77, Low 53
Friday – Trace of rain, High 75, Low 55

Grade: B-C

Victoria-Weather expresses our grief and wishes for a rapid recovery to southeastern Louisiana and the residents that have been so heavily impacted by Hurricane Ida. We encourage readers to donate to hurricane relief via the Red Cross.

Ida will landfall tomorrow in Louisiana

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Hurricane Ida sits off the coast of Louisiana, and will descend upon the Bayou State tomorrow. Strong winds are already starting to pick up from Mobile to the Mississippi Delta. At this hour, Ida is a Category 2, but she is slowing down her momentum and is anticipated to strengthen rapidly. The NHC suggests that Ida will become a major hurricane, likely a Category 4 before she comes ashore.

Ida’s swift momentum before this point brings good news, in the fact the storm surge will not be as terrible as it could be, given it’s status as a major hurricane. The rapid development before it makes landfall also limits the fetch and the subsequent coastal flooding. Additionally, if Ida closely follows the forecast track, she will landfall south of Houma, a bayou laden, sparsely populated (relatively) stretch of coastline. This is the good news.

The bad news is that a Category 4 storm is still strong. It will pass near enough to New Orleans to cause significant problems. There will also be a disruption to the platforms in the Gulf, and a hike to gas prices nationally as a result. Also, with Ida’s recent slowdown, heavy rain and flash flooding will become a concern. The gravest concern, and what makes Ida more dangerous than most, is that because she is expected to develop so quickly, mass evacuations were not issued. There are simply far more people in the line of fire than there would be typically when a major hurricane is bearing down.

Another bit of good fortune is that Ida is a compact storm, and as a result, will not impact even the entire state of Louisiana. Where she will impact though, will struggle to recuperate. Ida will landfall tomorrow evening, and will finally pull away from Louisiana on Monday evening.

Hickory, North Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

The weekend is fast approaching, and I think that is one thing everyone can come to appreciate. How much, exactly, will Hickorians (?) appreciate the weather this weekend?

At 1053AM, ET, Hickory was reporting a temperature of 80 degrees. Clear skies were reported across the region, however some fog and low clouds appeared in the valleys closer to Asheville. A band of mid and high clouds was seen along and southeast of a line from Greenville to Fayetteville. High pressure was otherwise seizing the day in the Mid Atlantic.
There is some weak baroclinicity, which will organize a bit over the weekend outside the mouth of Chesapeake Bay, but the story everyone will be watching is the rapid intensification of Tropical Storm Ida, which will be a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by Saturday evening, likely to make landfall southeast of Lafayette late on Sunday, after lingering just off shore for the weekend, with potentially disastrous side effects. Hor Hickory, this will function to remove moisture or conflicting flow into the region, and will lead to sun and clear skies, which probably means some toasty conditions.
Tomorrow – Sunny and warm with haze and fog early, High 94, Low 70
Sunday – Sunny and hot with morning clouds and fog, High 95, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 92, Low 69
Sunday – Sunny skies. High 93, Low 68

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and very warm High 93, Low 68,
Sunday – Mostly sunny and warm with the temperature approaching the record of 94 set in 2007 High 93, Low 69

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, High 93, Low 69
Sunday – Sunny, High 94, Low 68

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning, Sunny. High 91, Low 70
Sunday – Sunny, High 92, Low 68

WN: Tomorrow = Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 69
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 94, Low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid throughout the day. High 89, Low 67
Sunday – Humid throughout the day. High 89, Low 65

Hurricane Ida will definitely make headlines this weekend, but her presence will ensure the Carolinas have sunny skies this weekend. Satellite now shows some general clouds in the southeastern part of the state, and lingering fog in the mountains.

Time best spent outdoors

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Summer can be brutally hot through the center of the country. 90s with humidity aren’t out of the question in Springfield in August, so anything less than that is a treat. Consider last weekend to be a treat, then. On the 14th, there was supposed to be a bit of rain, but it was unseen in Springfield, leaving only the completely tolerable temperatures that maxd out in the 80s. The lows were a little warm, especially the 71 on the 14th, but much more accommodating on the 15th. Victoria-Weather and The Weather Channel were optimistic enough to put together these relatively pleasant days in their forecast, and shared the forecast victory.
Actuals: August 14th, High 86, Low 71
August 15th, High 86, Low 64

Grade: B-C

Spokane, Washington

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

When people think of Washington, most, I believe, think about Seattle, Tacoma and the Puget Sound area. Rainy and glum for a lot of the year. That is now what you should expect in eastern Washington, though. Let’s take a look at the biggest town in Washington east of the Cascades.

At 1053AM, PT, Spokane was reporting a temperature of 67 with mostly cloudy skies. An unusual feature has set up in the northwest: a cool area of surface high pressure. A trough aloft was opening the door for cooler air to fill in, but in the short term, surface reflection, aside from the temperatures, was not anticipated. Flow was stout enough from the west that fires in Oregon were not impacting air quality as much as they have recently.
The upper level trough is low amplitude and broad, but a lobe of vorticity will sneak down from British Columbia late on Friday. This will lead to some breezier conditions and some clouds, but will also help to usher the trough out of town. Importantly, this will also help temperatures start on the rise again for the weekend, but through the forecast period, it will be pleasant.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 76, Low 57
Friday – Partly to mostly cloudy with some breeze, High 73, Low 56

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon High 77, Low 54
Friday – Partly cloudy. High 74, Low 55

AW: Tomorrow – Comfortable with partial sunshine (late rain) High 76, Low 55
Friday – Pleasant with sunshine and some clouds (Early rain) High 72, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny (ate rain),High 78, Low 55
Friday – Partly sunny (Early rain), High 73, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, Haze in the morning (Late rain). High 74,Low 55
Friday – Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain, High 72, Low 55

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 78, Low 55
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 73, Low 54

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 80, Low 54
Friday – Partly cloudy throughout the day.High 79, Low 56

We found the right time to go to Spokane, didn’t we? A look at the satellite shows some smoke plumes out of Oregon.

Wrong place at the wrong time

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There are presently three named features in the north Atlantic and North America. Fred is continuing his slow spin into oblivion over the eastern US, while Tropical Storm Grace is moving through the Caribbean and Tropical Storm Henri is spiraling out by Bermuda. You can see them all on satllite.

Well, at least you can see the tail end of Fred. He is a spiraling storm presently threatening rain and tornadoes to the central Appalachians. The rotational energy will dissipate through tomorrow, but rain will continue in the mid-Atlantic tomorrow.

Off shore, Henri is presently the stronger storm, and likely will be the case until Grace reaches the open Gulf again. Henri will disrupt travel to and from Bermuda, but is not going to affect the island directly. Grace, the weaker seafaring storm, has never really been able to muster herself to become a hurricane, and looking at the wind history, hasn’t been a significant storm.

Of course, there are times when the numbers don’t tell all the story. Even when considering Fred, Henri is the strongest of these three storms (though Grace may eventually overtake him), and Fred has been dropping tornadoes in the western Carolinas all day, but it is indeed Grace that has been the most problematic.

Grace passed through Haiti at a time when the country was struggling with the aftermath of a strong earthquake that left thousands dead. Grace brought flooding rains to the country as relief efforts were underway. There is a point at which the death toll from the earthquake and Grace are inextricably linked, but at this point, no loss of life has been assigned to the storm. Whatever the statistics bear out, Grace, in all her disorganization came at the worst time to the worst place, something that will never describe Henri, even if he is the bigger storm.