from Victoria-Weather
Cold air damming is something that happens when warm air tries to build from the southwest, but it doesn’t spill east over the Appalachians (usually). This is why you are seeing temperatures in the mid to upper 50s through Kentucky, and it is only in the mid 40s in Charlotte and Greenville.
There is an area of low pressure hanging out in the Gulf of Alaska that is sending successive rounds of moisture into the Pacific Northwest. It isn’t a strong system and is really only notable because of the time of year it is arriving. It is the first real snow storm for the northern Rockies and Cascades, and will be persistent and cold enough to bring lasting snow.
We all know about the urban heat island. Typically, city center or airport observation points are the warmest local point in an area. Not Cincinnati! The airport in Covington (KCVG) is the low point around southeast Ohio.
We’re off on a fairly short trip, that somehow still covers 4 states. It will take 6 1/2 days to cover 439 miles, which equates to a pace of about 67.4mph, which is impressive, given the mountainous terrain we will cover through much of our journey. Thanks, freeways.
There is a mess of instability in the north Atlantic, and it is extending a few memories into the eastern US. By tomorrow morning, we will see a trough in the Great Lakes and a band on the Atlantic side of the Appalachians, from Virginia to South Carolina. The trough in the Great Lakes is going to leave us alone, though it will be breezy for most of our drive, until about Knoxville. A tropical wave near the Bahamas is going to leak to the north and inflame that rain in the coastal plains. It often seems like it is raining between Knoxville and Asheville. Lean more towards the Asheville side this time, and anticipate a shower or two in Hickory when we role in.
Temperatures were expected to be on cool side in the afternoon in Olympia, thanks to a couple of waves pumping through the Pacific Northwest. The biggest surprise of the whole deal was that temperatures last Sunday started to plummet on the evening. Temperatures were significantly cooler than expected on Sunday, which really made scores look worse than they may actually have been. WeatherNation was able to sneak in for a victory, but scores were all pretty close.
Actuals: Sunday, .01 inches of rain, High 59, Low 44
Monday – High 55, Low 45
Grade: C
There are a lot of quirks about Cincinnati. First, the airport is actually across the Ohio River in Kentucky. Next, the radar terminal for the area is actually to the north, in Wilmington, because the WFO there services Columbus, Dayton and Springfield, as well. It begs the question: what exactly IS Cincinnati?
At 352PM, ET, Cincinnati was reporting a temperature of 74 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The clouds were patchy or much of the tri-state region, with clearer skies at other nearby sites. Low pressure over the northern Plains is entangled with some tropical energy from the south and drenching the western Great Lakes. The two bits of energy are also attached to parallel jet streaks, which are boosting the energy but hampering the mobility of the feature.
The leading band of rain is diminishing over Indiana and northwest Ohio tonight, and will wear itself out
through the morning hours tomorrow. The trailing cold front will be dragged into the region later in the day Friday, arriving in the predawn on Saturday. By this point, low pressure will be developing over the central Rockies, with a warm front rising towards the Ohio Valley by the late evening, bringing a chance for steadier rain to the region after a cooler day beforehand.
Tomorrow – Cloudy with scattered showers, High 74, Low 63
Saturday – Overcast with light rain early, cooler, and more rain late, High 67, Low 57 (Non standard)
TWC: Tomorrow – Showers in the morning, then cloudy in the afternoon. High 76, Low 64
Saturday – Cloudy. Periods of rain early. High 66, Low 60
AW: Tomorrow – Breezy and warm with periods of clouds and sunshine High 76, Low 64
Saturday – Variably cloudy with a thunderstorm High 68, Low 59
NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of rain before 2pm, then a chance of rain and thunderstorms between 2pm and 5pm, then a chance of rain after 5pm. Partly sunny High 77, Low 65
Saturday – A chance of rain. Cloudy High 67, Low 60
WB: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain, High 72, Low 66
Saturday – Cloudy with a chance of rain, High 65, Low 59
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, High 77, Low 65
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with isolated storms, High 67, Low 60
CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers, High 76, Low 61
Saturday – Thunderstorm, High 66, Low 58
It will be particularly interesting to keep an eye on the temperature trendline for Saturday. Post cold front to overcast to warm front, it could go a lot of different directions.
Halloween is coming soon, followed by the rest of the Holiday season. It’s getting busy of all of us, so these forecasts get a little bit more important to daily life.
Sherman, Texas
Logan, Utah
Road Trip from Lima, Ohio to Oxnard, California
Monroe, Michigan
We verified a forecast for Racine yesterday, and I will just say that the verification in Victoria could not have been more different. For one thing, it was sunny throughout the forecast period. An expected advance from a tropical storm never really happened and it was honestly pretty great through the middle of last week, just a bit more humid on Wednesday. Clime kept their momentum (ah, there is the title source) by tying Accuweather for the forecast victory.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 77, Low 44
Wednesday – High 83, Low 50
Grade: A-C
A site that review every time I am thinking about the weather is the Aviation Weather Services Decision Support page. The “ADDs” page had observations and flight conditions for every site in the country, initially, and after some updates, any site with an observation in the world. It was a great, easily digestible first stop when looking at the weather.
As is usually the case with life and the internet, the ADD’s page changed. Actually, it pretty much went away, replaced by something new, the Aviation Weather home page. It’s even better. The AWC released an introductory video that walks you through the site.
The new site does some great things. First, it combines all the most useful elements to paint a picture of current conditions, from those terminal observations to radar and satellite imagery. Also on the site, you can find winter weather and all sorts of other governmental forecast sites. There are a couple of different selectable choices, namely the Winter Weather Dashboard and Traffic flow Management Portals, selectable through the Tools option at the top of the page, that serve as clearing houses for important weather links, including the Storm Prediction Center. or the HRRR model.
Poke around it, certainly, to see if there is anything in it for you. I know I’ll be back there learning all of her tricks nearly every day of the week.
We forecast for Racine, Wisconsin a couple of weeks ago, just as a soaker of a storm was going to roll in. On the 13th and 14th of the month, Racine saw a combined total of 1.9 inches of rain. Weather observers needed only look at the rainfall for those two days as well, as for the 48 hours, the high temperature was 57 and the low was 50, both occurring on the 14th. It stayed between 53 and 57 on the 13th. That’s a good sign that the clouds are smothering you, when the temperatures refuse to budge like that. Clime was the steady hand in southeast Wisconsin, earning the top forecast.
Actuals: October 13th, .76″ of rain, High 57, Low 53
October 14th, 1.14″ of rain, High 57, Low 50
Grade: A-B