With a wave of energy coming off the Gulf of Alaska, it seemed possible that Portland would see some rain on the 23rd. The model guidance had it, and the outlets that lean a bit more closely on extracting data explicitly from models included it in their forecast. Victoria-Weather was the only man powered forecaster to include it. Ultimately, Portland didn’t see any rain. Score one for the old fashioned way. The Weather Channel secured victory, while Accuweather collected their third 2nd place in a row! Actuals: October 23rd, High 58, Low 43 October 24th, High 60, Low 39
We are headed to north Georgia, and the home town of the state’s biggest University. Athens was at the periphery of Hurricane Helene’s deadliest swath, so even more so, I am hopeful for a quiet forecast.
At 1251AM, ET, Athens was reporting overcast conditions with a temperature of 66 degrees. A cold front was sliding through the region, and dropping temperatures between Atlanta and Chattanooga were leading to a band of fog in the region, and overcast through the region. The boundary is becoming cut off from any synoptic scale forcing, but will continue as a surface trough, expected to pivot back to the north through the coming days. High pressure is returning to the eastern third of the country, but the weak trough is still showing up in forecast surface analysis. The trough will curiously move to the north on the back side of this anticyclonic flow, lifting away from Athens. The lingering low level moisture will not be compelled out of the region, however, and without adequate sunlight, Sunday looks to be a cooler day than Saturday. Tomorrow – Cloudy early, then clearing and warm. High 80, Low 62 Sunday – Mostly sunny, warm, High 72, Low 59
TWC: Tomorrow – Areas of patchy fog early, then partly to mostly cloudy, High 80, Low 49 Sunday – Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. A few sprinkles possible High 70, Low 59
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and very warm High 80, Low 59 Sunday – Mostly cloudy and very warm High 72, Low 59
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and very warm High 79, Low 59 Sunday – Partly sunny, High 71, Low 59
WB: Tomorrow – Areas of fog in the morning. Partly sunny. High 80, Low 65 Sunday – Partly sunny, High 68, Low 61
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 78, Low 60 Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 71, Low 60
CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 79, Low 58 Sunday – Rain showers, High 70, Low 58
I think the outlets forecasting rain are using some computer generated interpretation of the lower level moisture, calling it rain when it will instead by fog. Satellite shows just a bit of scattered clouds in the region, which are masking the fog further north.
2:11PM: The strong polarization on either coast is beginning to break down. It’s not going away, but the the cold anomaly out west is coming back to normal. Still warmer out east, which means precipitation is going to continue to be robust right in the middle of the country. Fortunately, it is needed in this area.
8:31PM After the snow and rain yesterday, it’s looking like the dry spell is going to be concluding rather quickly. Don’t be surprised to see more rain through the week in the Twin Cities… but not tonight. The precipitation that was in the area is dissipating fairly rapidly.
10:35PM: There is a marginal risk for severe weather along the Texas-New Mexico border, but nothing is really panning out right now. This same pattern will make things a bit more interesting this weekend. More severe weather, just like earlier this week, is expected west of the Mississippi from Iowa to Oklahoma. It’s sure been an interesting final third of 2024.
11:58PM Well, it was no Halloween Blizzard, as it was in 1991, but there was snow in Minnesota today. The bullseye was the northwestern side of the Twin Cities metro, where a couple of inches fell. This is anecdotal, I was coming from North Dakota and got to enjoy a wintry blast on the way back home.
2:36PM There is an enhanced risk for severe weather in the center of the country today, which reflects a slow but substantial move towards more seasonal weather. It was 80 yesterday in Minneapolis, and in the low 40s in Bismarck, for example. It’s slow, but the dynamic is there. When I get around to posting forecasts, they promise to be a little bit more interesting.
9:56PM: Are you sick of politics, but still enjoy binary choices of red and blue? Well does the CPC have you covered! High pressure has been running things in the eastern half of the country, but a deep digging trough is moving in out west. That means the temperature outlook is bifurcated.
Unfortunately, just like America, this divide will lead to conflict. Expect storms in the Plains tomorrow, and probably through the week.
The forecast in the middle of October for Binghamton was our first forecast for the season where anyone mentioned snow. It turned out, there were no flakes in Binghamton, but the temperature forecasts were nevertheless quite good. WeatherNation had the top forecast, but nobody should be embarrassed by their output. October 16th – .05 inches of rain, High 46, Low 36 October 17th – High 55, Low 36
10:45PM – It’s an embarrassment of riches in the Twin Cities. Not only was there rain on Thursday, but next week, there is a really good shot at more rain on Tuesday and Wednesday. It’s an abrupt and welcome end to the dry spell.
A lot of the attention for the last month has rightfully been on the southeast where two major hurricanes, Helene and Milton devastated areas from western Virginia to south Florida. Surge and wind were major problems, as always, but this hurricane season is going to be forever remembered for all the rain that fell, and the flooding that ensued.
It seems like I am talking about a different planet, then, when I reference the lack of rain in the middle of the country. But indeed, it is the middle of the same country that has not seen rain for weeks. Minneapolis is working on a top three dry spell, measured by the length of time since their last recorded rainfall. Southern Minnesota and all of South Dakota haven’t seen a drop of rain in a month.
There hasn’t been much rain anywhere in the Plains, which is particularly jarring because this area is adjacent to the part of the country that saw so much. Fortunately, a lot of this area was well hydrated earlier this year, and drought hasn’t yet seized the area in a particularly consequential way.
We are getting deeper into autumn, and by the middle of next week, it will start snowing across the northern tier, including the dry part of the northern Plains. It can’t come soon enough.
