Goldsboro, North Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

My latest update referred back to Boise, and how close to spring it was getting even there. In the Carolinas, I think this would have been a pretty late breaking bit of news. They are aware.

At 255PM, ET, Goldsboro was reporting fair skies with a temperature of 85 degrees. Three was a bullseye of 90 nearby in Raleigh, but it is warm everywhere in the Carolinas. Fortunately, temperatures are not being boosted further by sweltering humidity, with dew points below 60. While things have been active in the center of the country, the east coast is dominated by an upper level ridge.
The latent alto cumulus that just exists in the southeast throughout the summer thanks to oceanic and Gulf moisture seems to be reaching a barrier at the southern end of the Appalachians, and isn’t moving across theSome sun in the morning with increasing clouds during the afternoon. Very warm border from South Carolina. A boundary moving into the region from the west will arrive at the Appalachians on Saturday morning and struggle to get moisture into the Carolina Plains as well, however the persistent flow over the mountains will lead to some lee troughing. This localized circulation will draw some moisture into the area, and late shower activity is possible Saturday in Goldsboro.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 63
Saturday – Late clouds with a chance of showers, High 83, Low 64

TWC: Tomorrow – Some sun in the morning with increasing clouds during the afternoon. Very warm High 89, Low 63
Saturday – Cloudy skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 84, Low 64

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and very warm High 89. Low 63
Saturday – Cloudy with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm, mainly later High 83, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 62
Saturday – A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, High 84, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow – Partly Sunny, High 88, Low 68
Saturday – Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the morning then a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 82, Low 66

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 87, Low 62
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated storms, High 80, Low 64

CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 88, Low 63
Saturday – Rain Showers, High 81, Low 64

You can see the scattered clouds through South Carolina that just filter out when you hit the Tar Heel State.

Heat roasting the Philippines

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Heat index temperatures around metro Manila this week have been in the triple digits, and aren’t expected to drop in the near future. The thick, tropical air mass is expected to remain in place north of the ITCZ and south of the more active trade pattern, which is soaking south China but little else. Looking at the long range model outlook, there isn’t really a change in pattern either.

It will likely take a tropical wave moving through to kick up some seabreezes and move air around, though we are in the dry season for the Asian tropics. It’s never really cool in the Philippines, though, so bear that in mind when thinking about what kind of unbearable heat would lead to it being newsworthy.

Muncie, Indiana

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It’s been a rough stretch for a large swath of the Plains. Will this weather be able to sneak eastward? Well not sneak, more like charge.

At 851ET, Muncie was reporting a temperature of 75 degrees with mostly sunny skies. There was a brisk south-southwest wind funneling the warm, moisture rich air northward within the warm sector of a strong system that has caused serious problems for the middle of the country. Fortunately, the associated cold front is occluded and significantly weaker by this point. Further, the boundary is anticipated to pass through Muncie overnight and into tomorrow morning. A perturbation along the boundary, the bit of energy bringing storms to Texas today, will slow the boundary down and some light rain will linger through most of the afternoon.
While there is clear air behind the front, it will take too long to push out of Muncie to really change the pattern in town. Lingering overnight clouds from Monday into Tuesday will keep things mild overnight, and Tuesday will be sunnier than Monday, blunting any temperature downgrade even further. In fact, Tuesday may end up being warmer than Monday.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm. High 74, Low 62
Tuesday – Showers in the morning, High 76, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with occasional rain in the afternoon, High 77, Low 65
Tuesday – Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. High 74, Low 58

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy in the morning; cloudy with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm High 75, Low 65
Tuesday – Partly sunny, nice and warm High 76, Low 56

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, High 75, Low 64
Tuesday – A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 8am. Mostly cloudy, High 72, Low 58

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Then, mostly cloudy with showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. high 72, Low 65
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning, then mostly sunny in the afternoon, High 70, Low 61

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers and a chance of storms, High 74, Low 63
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with light rain showers and isolated storms, High 72, Low 59

CLI: Tomorrow – Drizzle, High 75, Low 64
Tuesday – Drizzle, High 73, Low 59

It’s looking pretty clear in Muncie, and it looks like they are going to dodge the worst effects of this latest severe weather outbreak.

Freeze decision page

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One thing that I have seen many people bring up this year is the spring freeze warnings. They come up after things start thawing out, but it’s not a straight line. Frost and freeze advisories are out for those early planters, or folks with sensitive plants that have started budding on their own. The Quad Cities WFO has a whole page for residents looking for more information on the subject, and forecasts of the same.

Quiet is on it’s way

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It has been a terrible weekend for a large chunk of the country. There were tornadoes most notably in Omaha, Lincoln and Des Moines on Friday, and on Saturday, the storms battered Oklahoma most notably. but also produced tornadoes from northwest Missouri to north Texas. Unfortunately, the tornadoes in Oklahoma led to one fatality, but throughout the storms, there was damage and lives upturned throughout the Plains.

Today features another enhanced risk of severe weather around the ArkLaTex. The next several days will still have a bit of a threat for severe weather, but it isn’t nearly on par with what we were concerned with through the weekend. Instead of a tornado outbreak, we’ll just see more of the garden variety thunderstorms. Strong, sure, but not historic.

Summer makes it’s approach

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When we looked at Chico earlier this month, it didn’t appear that there was much of a trend, but when we bore out the actual verification numbers, it turned out that yes, there was a trend. From the 16th to the 17th it got a bit warmer, both during the day and during the night. It isn’t crazy hot yet, but this little window into April was a sign that it’s coming. WeatherNation ended up getting the top forecast, all by themselves.
Actuals: April 16th, High 75, Low 49
April 17th, High 77, Low 54

Grade: A-C

A stormy end to the week, a stormier weekend ahead

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A tag team of systems moving through the country are going to bring quite a bit of severe activity through the weekend. It will be mostly in the Plains, and will start tomorrow with some significant storms possible, especially in the central Plains. The show will really get going over the weekend, though. Saturday looks like the more hectic day, as there is already a 30% outlook on Saturday, which is a long way out to think that there will be strong storms. Watch out in the highlighted areas.