While strong synoptic scale systems, from Nor’Easters to Hurricanes are recognized for the sheer kinetic energy they possess over broad swaths of earth, it’s important to recognize that individual thunderstorms have an unbelievable amount of energy as well, and it’s all expressed faster and over a smaller area.
This video captures the flash flooding produced on Monday morning by a slow moving “every day” thunderstorm across the DC area. Even non-severe storms are capable of producing brisk winds, deadly lightning and as you can see, dangerous flash flooding, even if there aren’t any severe warnings (though this storm was waned for flash floods) and aen’t ultimately any severe reports.
First the good news: there were no thunderstorms last Wednesday or on the 4th of July for the city of Gulfport. Now the bad news: it was really stinkin’ hot. Low to mid 90s in the afternoon, and a low of 75 each morning. I hope the air worked for locals, or at least they have grown accustomed to sweating through the night. Accuweather had a dry forecast and the second best temperature forecast, which meant they started July off on a good note. Actuals: Wednesday – High 92, low 75 Thursday – High 94, low 75
Hi friends! I hope the holiday weekend left you recharged to attack the workweek. I think mine just made me want another week off!
At 953AM, CT, Tyler was reporting a temperature of 85 degrees with sunny skies. Dew points were sultry, sitting in the mid to upper 70s across the region, feuling a surprisingly robust cluster of thunderstorms in southwest Arkansas, with some storms developing southwest into Texas, where a couple of cells were popping up just to the north of Tyler, and Gilmer was reporting thunder. A very weak perturbation at the mid levels is sweeping through the region, beneath a similarly low powered ridge over the lower Mississippi Valley. This is enough to give some semblance of organization to the thunderstorm activity across the area, however widespread convection is likely across the southeast this afternoon as broadscale northwesterly flow trails some weak rotation centered over the Carolinas. Tyler will be at the western edge of this convective activity through mid afternoon tomorrow, and a stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. As low pressure organizes a bit over north Florida, and gets entrained with a trough over the Gulf Stream, The northwesterly flow will subside in Texas, but so too will the stream of moisture towards Tyler. Expect a hot and humid day on Tuesday, but without the threat for rain. Tomorrow – Hot and partly cloudy with an isolated thunderstorm, High 94, Low 76 Tuesday – Mostly sunny, hot High 95, Low 75
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 95, Low 76 Tuesday – Mainly sunny. High 95, Low 76
AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny; humid High 93, Low 75 Tuesday – Partial sunshine; humid High 94, Low 76
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 93, Low 76 Tuesday – Sunny, High 94, Low 75
WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy High 93, Low 76 Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 94, Low 75
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 94, Low 76 Tuesday – Mostly sunny,, High 94, Low 75
FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day.High 91, Low 73 Tuesday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 91, Low 72
Guidance has already proven to be a bit too cool today, so I’m anticipating that to continue for the next couple of days. It looks like The Weather Channel and I are the only two on that bandwagon, as well as the threat for storms tomorrow. They ARE tops in the standings so far this year, so I think I picked a good partner. Here is radar, with a couple of storms popping up to the north.
For the first time as I can remember this year, an outlet thoroughly dominated the competition for a forecast period. The Weather Channel easily attained the top score this month, and they did it by winning or tying at the top spot on 4 of the month’s 6 rated forecasts. No stopping The Weather Channel, who now also takes the lead on forecasts wins for the year.
If you haven’t ever been to Gulfport, or know where it is located, Gulfport is a port on the Gulf.
At 853AM, CT, Gulfport was reporting a temperature of 86 degrees with clear skies. It’s the season for light off shore convection, and indeed, there is already some off the Mississippi Delta. These Gulf Coast storms tend to be more widespread than anticipated in model guidance, and an intense rain shower cannot be ruled out today. In the parlance, the Gulf is “open” meaning there is little to no counterflow to sea breezes, and sultry air is free to invade the coastal areas. This tends to mean that in the afternoon, there will be enough instability for occasional showers and thunderstorms, particularly a few miles inland where the sea breeze loses momentum, with storms then drifting back towards the coast as the sun sets. This will probably be the pattern each of the next two days in Gulfport, and truly, the entire Gulf Coast. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a few thunderstorms, High 93, Low 76 Thursday – Mostly cloudy with a few thunderstorms, High 95, Low 76
TWC: Tomorrow – Partial cloudiness early, with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 90, Low 76 Thursday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 93, low 77
AW: Tomorrow = Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 92, low 76 Thursday – Mostly sunny High 95, Low 76
NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly sunny High 91, Low 76 Thursday – Mostly sunny, high 93, Low 76
WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 91, low 75 Thursday – Sunny in the morning then partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 93, low 75
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 92, low Low 77 Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 93, Low 77
FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 91, low 78 Thursday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 93, Low 78
Hot. Humid. Mississippi. Here is some of this morning’s off shore convection on radar.
It was plenty warm in Nashville last week. temperatures soared into the low 90s in Nashville as the weekend commenced last week. there was a threat of some pop up showers and storms as is often the case south of the Ohio River this time of year, but Music City dodged the drops. The dry forecast meant Forecast.io was able to slip in front and win the forecast. Actuals: Friday – High 91, Low 67 Saturday, High 92, Low 72
Take a look at the high temperatures coming your way this weekend, middle America.
Now, this map, in my opinion, is a bit misleading, becaue we have been groomed tro believe that red is hot and yellow is merely warm. Look again, though, and see that yellow is 90. Triple digits will be possible as far north as central South Dakota tomorrow, even if the color scale is a touch muted.
This doesn’t take into account the humidity that will flow northward a long with the heat. Excessive Heat advisories are in place across the region this weekend, as far north as Minnesota thanks to heat indices expected to reach the 110s in some northern states. After a cool start, this will feel even hotter for local residents.
Does that title make you think of Dubuque? it did in my head, but I’m not sure about it now, seeing it on paper. Anyways, this is in reference to the fact that we had two forecasts in Dubuque last week. Anthony made a forecast on the 18th, and I followed up on the 21st. There was no overlap in forecast period, and I can say that we both defeated 2 of our rival outlets. The difference was that Anthony tied all of the other ones, and The Weather Channel throttled the rest of us on the 21st. So congrats everyone, you pretty much all won (except Weatherbug and Forecast.io) on the 18th, but The Weather Channel really stood out on the 21st. Actuals: Wednesday, Trace of rain, High 75, Low 57 Thursday, High 78, Low 67 Saturday – .01 inches of rain, High 78, Low 57 Sunday – .32 inches of rain, High 78, Low 67
The Music City is our stop for this forecast. I think it’s an unfair sobriquet, frankly, because while Nashville is the home of Country Music, Memphis, just down the road, has a lot of jazz and blues history, as well as Graceland and Elvis. Gosh darn it, Tennessee should just be the Music State.
At 853AM, CT, Nashville was reporting a temperature of 80 degrees, even at this early hour. A remnant vorticity maximum was bringing thunderstorms to western Tennessee, though more broadly, the Tennessee Valley was under a broad ridge of high pressure. After the vort max subsides, It will be warm high pressure taking hold in central Tennessee. Generally speaking, this usually means isolated showers and storms in the summertime, and that will be no different tomorrow and especially Saturday. It will be more active to the north, synoptically, but scattered afternoon showers and storms are more likely than not throughout the southeast. Tomorrow – Stuffy, with a chance of afternoon showers and storms, High 88, low 70 Saturday – A little clearer, but still a threat for afternoon thunder, High 90, Low 71
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with afternoon showers or thunderstorms. High 92, Low 69 Saturday – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 94, Low 71
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, a thunderstorm High 91, Low 69 Saturday – Partly sunny, warm; a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 92, low 70
NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny High 92, Low 69 Saturday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 92, low 70
WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 89, Low 70 Saturday – Partly cloudy, a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms High 90, Low 70
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 92, Low 69 Saturday – Partly cloudy, a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 92, Low 70
FIO: Tomorrow – Rain tomorrow evening. High 91, Low 70 Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 92, low 72
Here are the scattered storms over western Tennessee. Expect a lot less organization as the weekend rolls around.
