from Victoria-Weather
After a pretty light stretch, we’re going to come back with forecasting, curiously heavy in references to Washington and Indiana.
Bellingham, Washington
Road Trip from Michigan City, Indiana to Bellingham
Atlanta, Georgia
Road Trip from Terre Haute, Indiana to Atlanta
Road Trip from Atlanta to Olympia, Washington
An anomalous batch of cold air settled into the High Plains late last week, bring snow to Denver shortly after they saw triple digits. The cold air spread across the Front Range, and that included places as far south as the Mexican Border. The cold air hung on for a couple of days even in Las Cruces thanks to a cut off low in the region. The cooler forecasts prevailed on this forecast, which is not something you can say that often. Forecast.io nabbed the top forecast honors as the only outlet not to forecast precipitation on Thursday morning.
Actuals: Thursday – High 64, Low 49
Friday – High 73, Low 56
Grade: B – D
OK, I get it. We’re in the middle of September, and I simply haven’t had a chance to circle back and name our forecaster of the month for either July or August. I’m not sure why, especially since Victoria-Weather was the forecaster of the month for July!
It was a tighter contest in August, which isn’t a bad thing, because there were more forecasts. I like to believe the convergence of forecasting values suggests a higher quality of forecasts across the board. That means WeatherNation, the forecaster of the month for August should really embrace their title.
| Outlet | Month wins | year wins |
| The Weather Channel | 9.5 | |
| Victoria-Weather | 7.91 | |
| Weatherbug | 6.49 | |
| WeatherNation | 5.08 | |
| National Weather Service | 4.91 | |
| Accuweather | 3.75 | |
| Forecast.io | 3.33 |
I’ve seen a lot of the country through the years, and the blind spots to me are endlessly fascinating. Southern New Mexico is definitely one of those places for me.
At 1055PM, MT, Las Cruces was reporting overcast skies and a temperature of 51 degrees. A band of showers lay north of Las Cruces. A few showers were nearly certain o clip the city overnight, though it looked as though the bulk of the shower activity would remain north of town. A cut off trough centered in the northern portion of the Land of Enchantment is responsible for the shower activity, but is expected to be drawn towards the mean jet flow over the next couple of days.
The threat for rain and cloud cover will peter through the day on Thursday as the jet trough shifts away from New Mexico. Even though rain will not remain in the forecast, Las Cruces’s position in the entrance region of the jet will allow for a freshness in the air, and a few layered clouds.
Tomorrow – Clearing after some light rain early, High 66, Low 49
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 51
TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Slight chance of a rain shower High 71, Low 51
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 82, Low 54
AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with periods of clouds and sunshine (early showers) High 70, Low 51
Friday – Pleasant and warmer with sun and some clouds High 80, Low 55
NWS: Tomorrow – Isolated showers. Partly sunny, High 72, Low 52
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 56
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated rain showers, High 65, Low 53
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 78, Low 57
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy iwth isolated showers, High 72, Low 52
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 81, Low 52
FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 67, Low 49
Friday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 76, Low 53
Well thank you, Forecast.io, for making my cooler forecast not seem so outlandish. I think some forecasts haven’t been updated recently, since some lows for Thursday aren’t as cold as the current temperatures. Here is the radar with showers streaming past Las Cruces.
When forecasting for Santa Barbara, I speculated that the Weather Service knew something that the rest of us didn’t, as their high temperature forecast was several degrees warmer than the rest of the group. I’m here to say that the NWS had no inside information. Temperatures along the coast weren’t quite the furnace that they were inland, where fires have exploded in the last couple of days. That’s good news for Santa Barbara, but bad news for the Weather Service’s forecast. Accuweather had a very good forecast and won the day, which made the NWS look even worse.
Actuals: September 1st, High 72, Low 58
September 2nd, High 73, Low 54
Grade: A-D
The Ohio Valley was afflicted by a low level perturbation as August wound down. This affliction was felt by our forecasters looking at Louisville. Generally, everyone was in the right ball park, but the temperatures didn’t trend in a particular direction or another to give any outlet in particular an advantage. Cloudy skies, especially overnight, kept low temperatures from getting too low, but the high minimums and just enough sunshine allowed the highs to trend into the high end of the outlook. Weathernation took home the victory, though not by much.
Actuals – 8/30 – High 81, Low 68
8/31 – .1 inches of rain, High 84, Low 69
Grade: C
East of the Rockies, we’re headed for a cool stretch through the middle of September. The end of August was quite the opposite, with the final throes of hot weather reaching as far north as Muskegon Bay. Bay City saw temperatures on August 21st and 22nd that climbed all the way up to the upper 80s. One last dance for summer time. It was a family affair, with Victoria-Weather, The Weather Service and Weathernation each grabbed a piece of the win.
Actuals: August 21 – High 88, Low 64
August 22 – High 89, Low 62
Grade: A-B
Hello! We’re back with another forecast, and this time, we’re off to Santa Barbara on the California coast, upstream from Los Angeles. It’s a nice town, by all accounts. Will the weather be just as nice?
At 753PM, PT, Santa Barbara was reporting clear skies with an onshore breeze and a temperature of 62 degrees. It seems like a a prime night for fog and low clouds rolling in, leaving to a dreary morning. Indeed, satellite shows the marine layer settling in already from Lompoc to the Bay Area.
An area of low pressure inland is helping to drive the onshore flow, though that is expected to pivot eastward through the period which will leave the flow to more local forces. Not much change in pattern is expected along the coast in Santa Barbara.
Tomorrow – Morning clouds and fog, clearing by mid morning, then sunny, High 71, Low 57
Wednesday – Clouds and fog continue, but less than Tuesday, High 75, Low 56
TWC: Tomorrow – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 70, Low 58
Wednesday – Mainly sunny. High 73, Low 58
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and pleasant High 72, Low 57
Wednesday – Areas of low clouds early; otherwise, mostly sunny and nice High 72, Low 57
NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, High 78, Low 62
Wednesday – Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, High 79, Low 62
WB: Tomorrow – Low clouds and fog in the morning, High 70, Low 59
Wednesday – Low clouds and fog in the morning, High 70, Low 59
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 74, Low 60
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 74, Low 60
FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 71, Low 56
Wednesday – Clear throughout the day. High 75, Low 59
Look at the temperatures. Do you think the Weather Service knows something? Here is a look at the satellite showing the clouds creeping up the coast.
The Weather Channel didn’t have a great August, but they had a very good showing in Wheeling. Temperatures were in the mid 80s, with a sprinkle of thunderstorm activity late last week in the West Virginia northern Panhandle. The Weather Channel captured the forecast almost perfectly, bucking their recent trends.
Actuals: August 20th, High 84, Low 53
August 21st, .04 inches of rain, High 85, Low 61
Grade: A-C
All right, no more grandiose promises. I’m just not available as much at home with kids all the time! Hopefully I’ll find some more time soon.
Las Cruces, New Mexico