Even without drought, fire threat remains

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Finally, the Western US was inundated with a drought quenching rain throughout the winter and into the spring. It was a profound relief for a part of the world that had a drought for so long, and endured a threat for fires every summer for years, and a relief for cynical newscasters who didn’t want viewers to think they were watching reruns every year.

And yet here we are again, buffeted by wild fire stories. Granted, they aren’t as widespread, either the fires or the stories, but they are cropping up again. The stories aren’t as prevalent because the threat to life and property hasn’t been as immediate, and the fires aren’t quite as encompassing because the environment is a bit less dry than it’s been in years.

But even in the best years, fires are always possible out west. Just because the winter was wet doesn’t mean that holds for the summer. There is ground water, but it’s always dry in the summer out west. One thing that compounds the threat is that it’s also extremely warm. The heat helps to dry things out and create more fuel to the fires.

Additionally, we are in the midst of the monsoon season in the intermountain west. While we associate the word monsoon with the inundating rains of south Asia, in the western US, it means widespread thunderstorms, but those storms may not necessarily come with rain. Lightning with these storms has historically been the natural cause of wildfires, and it is in full force again this summer.

The dog days are here. and even though some relief is coming for the coast, the Rockies will stay hot, dry and favorable for thunderstorms and wildfires.

Bloomington, Illinois

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It was a very stormy Monday night for northern Illinois, as a derecho swept through, touching nearly every location in the state. Here’s hoping that things return to Normal in the Bloomington area soon.

At 956AM, CT, Bloomington was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 60 degrees, a pleasant morning in the middle of what has been a warm, wet summer. Flow aloft is weak across the country, which will allow things to warm up under the sun, but humidity through the day should remain comfortable.
High pressure will continue to hold through today and to start the weekend on Saturday, however an upper level trough is then expected to rotate in from the Upper Midwest. A mostly disorganized batch of energy will tap into the Gulf of Mexico, pulling in a steady rise in moisture, and contributing to clouds and the potential for a few isolated storms on Sunday evening. These storms won’t match those seen on Monday, instead functioning as weak pop up cells that will end afternoon picnics a bit early.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 58
Sunday – Increasing clouds, and an isolated storm, High 82, Low 63

TWC: Tomorrow – Some sun in the morning with increasing clouds during the afternoon. High 79 Low 57
Sunday – Cloudy. High 80, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and delightful High 78, Low 58
Sunday – Comfortable with intervals of clouds and sun High 81, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny,  High 80, Low 59
Sunday – Partly sunny, High 81, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 58
Sunday – Partly sunny, High 78, Low 63

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 80, Low 59
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 81, Low 64

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 80, Low 57
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 60

Look at me, Mr. Negative. I do have warmer temperatures, because it’s July and the sun is out, and I am the only outlet with rain in the forecast. It’s been so wet, why slow down now? Satellite imagery is pretty clear.

Late evening what?

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If you go back and look at the forecast for Punta Gorda, you will see that, mysteriously, I said on the 8th it would be mostly sunny through the day, late evening…. and then I let it hang. If I had concluded that statement with “showers” or something like that, Victoria-Weather would have drawn level with Weatherbug for the forecast victory, but that wasn’t how it shook out. Instead, Weatherbug was the sole victor thanks largely to their uncomfortably warm low temperature forecast which matched the uncomfortably warm nights in Punta Gorda. Victoria-Weather would have been close if we’d employed the correct precipitation forecast, because we were the only outlet that anticipated how warm it would be during the day.
Actuals: July 7th, .01 inches of rain, High 95, Low 80
July 8th, .02 inches of rain, High 95, Low 81

Grade: B-C

June Forecaster of the Month

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Hurricane Beryl continues to roil through the Ohio Valley as a weak area of low pressure. There is still some threat for severe weather because of the storm, but her most ominous days are behind her. The Lesser Antilles have already been recovering for a week!

Also in the last few days, there has been a minor change here at the site. You may notice the icon at the top of your web browser has changed. I learned that another weather provider uses a logo that is very similar to the old orange on black that I used. Now, it is a white V a white to blue gradient, like clouds in the sky. If you saw that and were confused, that is the explanation.

That is also the logo I will use if the June forecaster of the month news hits the mainstream. We went as far away as Alaska with our forecasts this month, but the winner is close to home. It’s us, if that wasn’t already abundantly clear.

OutletForecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel8.82
Victoria-Weather7.48
WeatherNation3.83
Accuweather3.16
Clime3
National Weather Service1.49
Weatherbug1

An independent streak

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Our forecast for Utica fell over the Independence Day holiday, and called for a warming trend that would ultimately approach 90 on Friday. While it was a few degrees from 90 on Friday, it was actually warmer on the 4th than it was on the 5th. There was a splash of rain in the morning, but not enough to alter anyone’s plans, so trips to the lake, runs through the sprinkler, or any sort of deck or patio based activities were on. Everyone had the 5th as the warmer day, so WeatherNation being among the warmer forecasts on the 4th and cooler forecasts on the 5th ended up claiming a victory.
Actuals: Thursday – .01 inches of rain, High 87, Low 70
Friday – High 85, Low 69

Grade: C

Punta Gorda, Florida

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Hurricane season is off to a daunting start, with Beryl already bringing category 4 and 5 damage to islands in the Caribbean, and poised to bring soaking rain to Mexico and the Texas Coast through the remainder of the weekend. Southwest Florida has become a hurricane hot spot over the last few years, after a long era of quiet, and perhaps a bit of complacency, residents of Punta Gorda are going to be eying the tropics more warily.

At 353PM, ET, Punta Gorda was reporting a temperature of 94 degrees with clear skies. Despite Beryl churning, expecting to become a hurricane again before landfalling near Corpus Christi tomorrow, there was a bit of diurnal thunderstorm activity beginning to fire along the coast in Florida near Sarasota, and south of the area, over the Everglades. This activity will continue through the evening, feasting on temperatures in the 90s.
There is a trough through the southeastern US and touching off storms, particularly in Georgia, and this boundary is helping to draw southerly flow across the Sunshine state and exasperating the threat of storms. A weak subtropical feature will drift into the Jacksonville area and make storms more widespread across Florida. The added circulation across the area will tap into the broad Floridian instability, and late Monday looks to be even stormier than today and tomorrow.
Tomorrow – Isolated thunderstorms, High 95, Low 77
Monday – Mostly sunny through the day, late evening 93, Low 77

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy early with thunderstorms becoming likely during the afternoon. High 92, Low 78
Monday – Mostly cloudy in the morning with scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. High 91, Low 79

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with variable cloudiness; a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 94, Low 77
Monday – Humid with some sun, then turning cloudy High 89, Low 77

NWS: Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Mostly sunny High 90. Low 79
Monday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8am and 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly sunny High 90 Low 79

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, isolated showers and thunderstorms in the morning, becoming scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 91, Low 79
Monday – Mostly sunny. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms in the morning then numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 92, Low 80

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 90, Low 79
Monday – Partly cloudy with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms, High 89, Low 79

CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 91, Low 79
Monday – Thunderstorm, High 90, Low 78

Clime says just the one thunderstorm in Punta Gorda. I’m going a bit warmer than the rest, following their warm day in Punta Gorda today. A look at the satellite of tropics shows that Beryl isn’t a large storm, but is on her way to Texas.

Relative calm ahead of the holiday weekend

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We have reached the most doldrum-y day of summer. Friday July 5th is a vacation day for a lot of people, and it is a pause for a lot of the national outlets as well (except for the NHC). It is going to be storming for a good part of the country, but strong activity should be few and far betwen.

It will continue like this for a few days, but Sunday, be on the lookout for Hurricane Beryl to landfall along the Mexican Border near Brownsville. The days of Cat-5 Beryl are long past, so perhaps many North Americans can focus on the Caribbean as it rebounds from the storm’s impact.

Utica, New York

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I once had a job where I would issue forecasts regularly for Tunica, Mississippi. It has nothing in common with Utica, except Tunica’s identifier is KUTA, and I had a coworker who regularly called Tunica “Utica”, and that is all I can think of when I think of Utica. I’m sorry, Utica.

At 353PM, ET, Utica was reporting a temperature of 86 degrees and clear skies. Accompanying this warmth and sunshine was a brisk southerly well, importing still more warm air from the southeast. Low pressure is occluded and winding down over James Bay, but is still allowing for the vigorous southerly flow through western New York. Associated showers and storms won’t enjoy the instability they are seeing in southern Ontario right now, but a stray overnight shower in Utica seems likely.
The evening of Independence Day tomorrow looks OK for fireworks. Orphaned moisture in the mid-Atlantic as the low moves from James Bay to Nunavut will linger and ensure some mid level clouds with light winds. Much of the day will be clear on Friday as well, with a return of warm south winds. The next feature will be emerging in the Upper Midwest through this time, and will bring a more likely shot of rain late on Friday.
Tomorrow – Early showers, then mostly cloudy, High 83, Low 69
Friday – Sunny early with a late shower, High 88, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain showers early with mostly cloudy conditions later in the day. High 86, Low 70
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 88, Low 63

AW: Tomorrow – A passing shower in the morning; otherwise, very warm and humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 86, Low 67
Friday – Very warm and humid with variable cloudiness; a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 88, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9am and 11am. Mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 69
Friday – A slight chance of showers between 2pm and 5pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 65

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then partly sunny in the afternoon, High 83, Low 67
Friday – Partly sunny (late rain), High 88, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light rain showers and isolated storms, High 86, Low 69
Friday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers and isolated storms, High 88, Low 66

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 83, Low 67
Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 63

It looks like a warm start to the holiday weekend in western New York. I hope there and everywhere stays healthy and happy, while saying a little prayer for residents of the West Indies and Jamaica, who will spend the time recovering from Hurricane Beryl. As for the Mid-Atlantic, the satellite is more ominous than the forecast portends.