San Jose, California

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

The Bay Area of northern California is a complicated weather scene thanks to the water, the changing terrain and the fact that there isn’t a heck of a lot of data immediately to the west of there. Fingers crossed, models don’t fail us now!

At 1053AM, PT, San Jose was reporting a temperature of 58 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The regional satellite showed off the jet stream through northern California, with some striated clouds moving through Nevada and Utah after passing the Sierras. The southern Bay just had a few patches of clouds that don’t look to have much staying power.
A surface ridge will build over the west coast over the next few days, further underscoring the stability in the region. The tail of a jet streak will press eastward, allowing a strong Pacific ridge to really put it’s mark on the area.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 68, Low 46
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 68, Low 45

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 70, Low 46
Tuesday – Abundant sunshine. High 67, Low 44

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sunshine High 69, Low 46
Tuesday – Plenty of sunshine High 67, Low 42

NWS: Tomorrow – Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, High 69, Low 43
Tuesday – Sunny – High 68, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning, then becoming sunny, High 69, Low 45
Tuesday – Sunny, High 66, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 43
Tuesday – High 68, Low 40

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 68, Low 43
Tuesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 67, Low 41

Here is a look at that satellite I mentioned. Pretty cool how apparent the jet stream is, if you ask me, a local weather nerd.

An unwelcome surprise

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Early in February, shortly after the Super Bowl, the east coast was enjoying a warm stretch, but colder air loomed on the other side of the Appalachians. The leading edge of the ridge was going to bring a little bit of rain, though it wasn’t expected to be much, with low pressure developing in the southern US. Unfortunately for forecasters and residents of Salisbury, where we were forecasting way back on the 4th, things developed just fin. Around an inch of rain fell between Tuesday the 5th and Wednesday the 6th, but most forecasters only mentioned a chance of light rain for the Delmarva. The Weather Channel at least had rain in the forecast for both days, but the record warmth that some had promised on Tuesday was done in by all the clouds.
Actuals: Tuesday, Feb. 5th, .23″ of rain, High 61, Low 41
Wednesday, Feb. 6th., .73″ of rain, High 56, Low 44

Grade: C-D

One last wintry gasp

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It is cold this morning in the Upper Midwest. For the second morning in a row, temperatures dropped to the double digits below zero across the regions. It’s the coldest it’s been all season, but there will be a bounce back this weekend, back to near freezing, if not above.

This little cold snap is not the last gasp that I am talking about.

The cold snap I am referring to is the one forthcoming. It may not be too terrible in the north central United States, relatively speaking, but look at this spate of blue on the 6-10 day outlook from the CPC.

That’s a peculiar outlook, I will be the first to admit, and it has everything to do with systems generating in the Rockies, diving into the Big Bend of Texas and then shuttling off towards New England.

The good news is, much of the cool down is going to owe to the precipitation in the region, rather than an Arctic intrusion, which means, among other things, that despite the high precipitation and unseasonably low temperatures, west Texas probably won’t see accumulating snow out of this.

While this will be the pattern for the end of February and into the beginning of March, it will not hold through all the way through spring. Indeed, as luck would have it, this map will once again reverse for the rest of the season, as the north central US will be the spot most liely to endure a below normal spring.

A strong start to the shortest month

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We had a forecast at the beginning of the month for Ocala that we still haven’t checked back in on yet. A cold front had barged through the Peninsula, but I’m happy to report there was a very quick and full recovery, particularly of the afternoon highs. Temperatures in central Florida during the winter can get a little chilly, however, and undoubtedly, residents of Ocala were freaking out at the near freezing lows on the 2nd and 3rd. WeatherNation continued their recent string of solid forecasts and earned a solo victory.
Actuals: Sunday Feb 2nd, High 64, Low 39
Monday, Feb 3rd, High 75, Low 36

Grade: B-C

January Forecaster of the Month

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January was interminable, wasn’t it? And here we are, 10 days later, still talking about. It’s mostly good news, though, because in the fray of January, we were able to reward not one, not two, but THREE outlets with the forecaster of the month award. The three outlets to draw level in the first month of the year were Victoria-Weather, Weatherbug and the Weather Service.

OutletMonth wins
Victoria-Weather2
Weatherbug2
National Weather Service0.5
WeatherNation0.5
The Weather Channel
Accuweather
Forecast.io
OutletMonth winsYear Wins
Victoria-Weather22
Weatherbug22
WeatherNation0.51.5
National Weather Service0.50.5
The Weather Channel
Accuweather
Forecast.io

Border battle

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Usually, when we talk about border battles in sports we are talking about two states that share a border playing each other. In this case, we are just talking about the very tight forecast fight in Brownsville as January turned to February. January ended with a splash of rain and unusually cool temperatures. February started a little brighter, especially for WeatherNation who had the best forecast on February 1st, missing only by one degree on the morning low, and pegging the 71 degree high. They earned the very rare solo victory after diverging from the NWS forecast.
Actuals: Friday, Jan. 31st. .1 inches of rain, High 66, Low 53
Saturday, Feb 1st, High 71, Low 49

Grade: A-B

Salisbury, Maryland

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

To the Delmarva we go this evening, to the Eastern Shore of Maryland. Salisbury is the second largest town on the peninsula, after Dover. This is the first time Dover has been the biggest in any categorization.

AT 854PM, ET, Salisbury was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 50 degrees. There was a smattering of clouds to the west, over Appalachia, that were seen at the leading edge of high pressure. There is an upper level ridge parked over the eastern US, and any short term development will be found in the south central US, at the base of a strong jet trough.
There is little easterly momentum to the ridge, but there some. Cold air will coalesce behind the Appalachians even as low pressure develops in the lower Mississippi Valley. The cold air will drift southeastward, bringing with it the chance for a splash of showers on Wednesday afternoon, with a few clouds billowing in before that.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 65, Low 46
Wednesday – chance of light rain, High 54, Low 44 (non-standard)

TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 62, Low 51
Wednesday – Rain early then remaining cloudy with showers in the afternoon. High 55, Low 42

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a touch of rain; the temperature near the record of 69 set in 1991 High 64, Low 50
Wednesday – Mild with occasional rain and drizzle High 57, Low 42

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 67, Low 48
Wednesday – Rain likely. Cloudy, High 53, Low 45

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 62, Low 53
Wednesday – Rain likely, High 56, Low 42

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 66, Low 48
Wednesday – Cloudy with light rain likely, High 52, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 63, Low 48
Wednesday – Light rain in the morning and afternoon High 56, Low 39

There we go, a messy forecast for the middle of the week. Right now, however, the sky is clear and the air is unusually warm.

Winter wins

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The forecast in St. Joseph last week speculated upon the effect an inverted trough would have in the Missouri Valley. The system would later bring severe weather to the Florida Keys, but it would only bring a case of the blahs to St. Joseph. Victoria-Weather had the best forecast, though the boundary was unable to squeeze out a drop or a flake last Tuesday (there was fog and mist, though), in what was an altogether solid forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 32, Low 28
Wednesday – .01 inches of snow, High 34, Low 27

Grade: A-C

Ocala, Florida

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We’re off to the Sunshine State once again. This weekend, the Super Bowl is a little further south in Miami. There were some very strong thunderstorms there last night, but at least at the Orange Bowl, life looks good this weekend. What about further north in Ocala?

At 203PM, ET, Ocala was reporting a temperature of 63 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A cold front was moving through the Florida Peninsula, with temperatures in the 40s as close as Tallahassee. Ocala was not expected to receive any more rain today, though there were a few showers as nearby as Orlando.
The sharp upper level trough that is driving this cold front will be off over the Gulf Stream by tomorrow morning, with a thermal ridge working its way back into Florida by tomorrow afternoon. Low pressure developing in the plains will draw even more warm air northward.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 67, Low 41
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 74, Low 39

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 66, Low 42
Monday – A few clouds from time to time. high 73, Low 40

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sunshine, High 64, low 42
Monday – Partly sunny, pleasant and warmer High 73, low 40

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 65, Low 42
Monday – Sunny High 73, Low 41

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 64, Low 44
Monday – Sunny High 71, Low 41

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 64, Low 41
Monday – Sunny, High 73, Low 39

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 65, Low 43
Monday – Clear throughout the day. High 73, Low 40

Not much going on for the next couple of days, however we do have a bit of rain off to the south this afternoon. Not much longer, though, for fans of Disney World.