The SPC is great, and I don’t know how easily performed this would be, but I would like to be able to see the population centers by severe region somehow on this map. How do you know that Duluth or Rhinelander are included in the northern marginal risk, because it is hogged by Phoenix suburbs, Tucson and Gulf Coast towns?

The quibble is minor, but I’ve learned that the grasp of geography is not what it should be.

Hilary made landfall earlier today and is now spinning over southern California. There is a lot that makes this different than a tropical storm you would find in the Atlantic, landfalling on that side of the ocean. First is the fact that there is cold water off the Pacific Coast, and the storm eroded quickly before she hit the Baja. Second, there is a lot more terrain in this part of the world than there is in, say, Florida. This means poorer radar availability through the mountains but a more acute threat for flash flooding. Look at all those flood reports and green boxed flash flood warnings if you want proof.

We don’t have the threat for tornadoes like we would to the east, though, and the winds are lower, and there is no storm surge to note. Earthquakes, though…

1200AM update:

Hilary is pushing moisture all the way up to Sacramento, and then it is catching the upper level flow, and there is a connection that wraps to northern Minnesota.

The North Atlantic is finally getting a bit more active, with a few waves that the NHC is monitoring, but right now, the storm that looks the most likely to have the next impact on the US is Hilary, in the eastern Pacific. Hilary at present is a major hurricane, but as she moves north, note that she will start diminishing fairly swiftly. The Pacific is a colder ocean, and her course along the Baja Coast will further blunt the storms intensity. Nevertheless, flash flooding and a few isolated tornadoes are probably going to come for SoCal and western Arizona as next week begins.

8:10 PM Update – The latest projection for Hilary takes her a little bit further to the west, which is bad news for the Southwest. Less time along the coast means that she won’t lose intensity quite as quickly, and there may be a bit more rain, a bit more wind as she moves into the Desert.

130AM Update – Those TS Watches in SoCal are the first to ever be issued for the region.

10pm Saturday Update – Hilary has been downgraded to a Category 1, and will be a tropical storm fairly soon. Like we talk about fairly often with severe weather in the east, this storm will be even more catastrophic because it is coming to a well populated area unaccustomed to tropical weather. The torrential rains will not be well handled, and residents should be prepared to contend with flash flooding.

The Twin Cities have been very fortunate in that they have avoided severe weather for the bulk of the year. Today, much of eastern Minnesota finds itself (along with Western Wisconsin) in the slight risk area for severe storms. It’s been there for 5 days now. Now, however, the short range models have thunderstorms emerging in northern Minnesota and not popping up south of St. Cloud until after 9, when the boundary is almost out of the Twin Cities.

It’s far too early to make any proclamations, but if the short range models are correct, the Twin Cities will continue their dry, incident free summer tonight.

Everywhere from the Jersey Shore south to South Beach, and near Gulf Shores, we see rain, rain rain.

But it is Tuesday, rather than the weekend. No promises that far out, but it is going to clear out for tomorrow

If you have a moment, Rolling Stone has an article with ways to help residents affected by the devastating Maui wildfires. Our hearts go out to those dealing with so much loss.

There is a stretch of of the US, generally from the Chesapeake southeast through the central Appalachians, which remains under a slight risk for today. That area will shift only a bit to the southeast tomorrow, and will bring some steady rain along the way. Already, parts of Maryland are being monitored for flash flooding.

The mid-Atlantic has seen a little bit of rough weather of late, and it’s mounting. Heavy downpours are a bit more apt to cause flooding, and that appears to be the situation tonight.

I’m going to be verifying the forecast for Orlando later today, and while I know that the weather today is similar to what it was when we issued the forecast earlier this week, there is another similarity that is ongoing. It’s the middle of August, but we aren’t looking at any imminent tropical features in the North Atlantic.

With the forecast for hurricanes continuing to be above average, this could certainly change on a dime. The hurricane driven winds that exacerbated the wildfires in Maui, are a reminder that the North Atlantic is not the only place threatened by tropical storms.

Oh, good evening, large thunderstorm cluster bearing down on Philadelphia. Expect some hail out of this guy and some briefly gusty winds. There were some trees down southwest of Reading thanks to this one. Even if this doesn’t bring the severity into Philadelphia, it is still arriving in the wee hours of the morning when you should be sleeping. A rough morning awaits.

A large tornado watch continues for the eastern Great Lakes, including a couple of active tornado warnings in northeast Ohio. The watch extends into western New York, but at this time, there are no warnings there. Don’t get complacent yet, there is still an enhanced risk for the region.