It’s been since the spring, but the SPC has actually started using the Days 4-8 outlook imagery, at least days 4-5, with a mass of potential storms moving through the Ohio Valley to the mid-Atlantic. For now, it is something of a curiosity, but with this much certainty this far out, it seems fairly likely that the outlooks will be upgraded as we get closest to Sunday and Monday.

The National Weather Service in Omaha is looking ahead to some severe weather in the northern part of the region tomorrow, between 6pm and 1am. I know this because I looked at this graphic for about half a second, and realized that I should share it as an example of meteorologists getting to the point and getting the message across.

Norway is a very important country in the history of meteorological research. Vilhelm Bjerknes formed the Bergen School of meteorology, which produced meteorologists like his son Jakob and Carl Rossby, as well as the Norwegian Cyclone model, which is one of the first basic understandings of how low pressure systems work, with warm and cold fronts, which reach occlusion and deteriorate. For all that meteorological history and prowess, the country is sure upside down today.

I highlighted a few places, namely the two warm spots and the coolest spot. Tromso and Bodo are both north of the Arctic Circle. Drammen is in the southern part of Norway, southwest of Oslo. (Bergen, the city of meteorological record, is also chilly and in the southern part of the country.) The cities are the same distance apart as New York and Orlando, so this is particularly unusual. When you look at the radar and see most of the North Sea socked in with rain, it starts to make more sense, and when you realize the Arctic is still seeing full daylight for 20 hours a day, it all clicks.

Today is setting up to be an adventurous weather day. As you can see by the graphic on the upper right corner of the page, the SPC has a moderate risk for severe weather in the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic, with a tornado watch already set up for the western face of the range, including much of the upper Ohio Valley. Storms there are just emerging, with the first severe warnings near Parkersburg, West Virginia, and more certainly to follow.

An existing line of thunderstorms is also racing eastward, east of Memphis, and has a history of producing 65mph winds.

If all that wasn’t enough, the SPC also has a mesoscale discussion out for eastern Washington and northern Idaho. I can’t imagine we will remember the weather there like we may remember the weather furth east as the day goes on.

This is a bit of a long range out look, and it is pretty specific to the northeastern corner of the country. It’s pretty warm in New England, down through the Mid-Atlantic, and with a stalled trough over the Great Lakes, that warmth is going to continue building up into the northeastern US for several more days. According to the long term outlooks for the rest of the month, however, things will be about normal as far south as DC. Fingers crossed that means a pretty cool end of the month?

I certainly thought that today, at the very least, would be the last day for showers and storms in the mid-Atlantic. If I am being fully honest, I will admit that I kind of thought yesterday would be that day. Instead, there is just the barest threat for showers and storms even tomorrow.

EDIT:
I guess I will note that the precipitation threat is gone tomorrow between Cumberland and Louisville. I was close, just used the wrong forecast.

I know the forecast is long expired now, but the road trip forecast I published last night looks good. The light bands of showers through the Mountaineer State are continuing at this hour, but there is no thunder activity, and it isn’t very heavy. Post frontal, but still northerly flow from a strong area of low pressure.

Sorry to the deep south though, I guess the cool down is still way out.

The thing about summer is that patterns get slow and sluggish, less dynamic. A cold front has sagged into the middle of the Ohio Valley and is connected with a stationary front through Montana. Not strong, not moving much, but present, which will mean isolated storms within a couple hundred miles o the boundary. Not strong, but not moving, either. Enjoy this active forecast, Omaha (courtesy the NWS)

Expect August to be dominated by two different stories. The continuing heat, which has lead to extreme warmth in the north Atlantic, and the approach of peak hurricane season. All other things being equal, you might expect that the increased sea surface temperature would lead to an increased risk for hurricane development. There is a long way to go and it certainly remains to be seen, but at this point, it’s still pretty quiet out there.

Of course, while it feels like a slow season, the next named storm will already be the 5th of the year.