Today is setting up to be an adventurous weather day. As you can see by the graphic on the upper right corner of the page, the SPC has a moderate risk for severe weather in the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic, with a tornado watch already set up for the western face of the range, including much of the upper Ohio Valley. Storms there are just emerging, with the first severe warnings near Parkersburg, West Virginia, and more certainly to follow.

An existing line of thunderstorms is also racing eastward, east of Memphis, and has a history of producing 65mph winds.

If all that wasn’t enough, the SPC also has a mesoscale discussion out for eastern Washington and northern Idaho. I can’t imagine we will remember the weather there like we may remember the weather furth east as the day goes on.

This is a bit of a long range out look, and it is pretty specific to the northeastern corner of the country. It’s pretty warm in New England, down through the Mid-Atlantic, and with a stalled trough over the Great Lakes, that warmth is going to continue building up into the northeastern US for several more days. According to the long term outlooks for the rest of the month, however, things will be about normal as far south as DC. Fingers crossed that means a pretty cool end of the month?

I certainly thought that today, at the very least, would be the last day for showers and storms in the mid-Atlantic. If I am being fully honest, I will admit that I kind of thought yesterday would be that day. Instead, there is just the barest threat for showers and storms even tomorrow.

EDIT:
I guess I will note that the precipitation threat is gone tomorrow between Cumberland and Louisville. I was close, just used the wrong forecast.

I know the forecast is long expired now, but the road trip forecast I published last night looks good. The light bands of showers through the Mountaineer State are continuing at this hour, but there is no thunder activity, and it isn’t very heavy. Post frontal, but still northerly flow from a strong area of low pressure.

Sorry to the deep south though, I guess the cool down is still way out.

The thing about summer is that patterns get slow and sluggish, less dynamic. A cold front has sagged into the middle of the Ohio Valley and is connected with a stationary front through Montana. Not strong, not moving much, but present, which will mean isolated storms within a couple hundred miles o the boundary. Not strong, but not moving, either. Enjoy this active forecast, Omaha (courtesy the NWS)

Expect August to be dominated by two different stories. The continuing heat, which has lead to extreme warmth in the north Atlantic, and the approach of peak hurricane season. All other things being equal, you might expect that the increased sea surface temperature would lead to an increased risk for hurricane development. There is a long way to go and it certainly remains to be seen, but at this point, it’s still pretty quiet out there.

Of course, while it feels like a slow season, the next named storm will already be the 5th of the year.

Severe weather has been pretty sparse in Minnesota lately, but we have a severe thunderstorm watch just issued, and it is on the very northern end of the thunderstorm risk today. There is a little bit of activity in eastern Minnesota so far, but it seems like a strange sight! We’ll see how it goes.

There is a bit of cooler air filtering into the northern US, slowly but surely. Bands of training thunderstorms are expected in the Upper Midwest today. The threat for storms is in the hail and wind variety, particularly when they get going later today. The jet is lingering near the Canadian border, so don’t expect this action to move further south. Sure, it’s hot down there, but at least it isn’t stormy, right?

The heat is on across the country, as you have no doubt felt and heard about on the news. The really hot weather is expected to ease everywhere, but a true return to normal is coming for New England and California by the beginning of August. As luck with have it, that is the most populous part of the country