Idalia has formed off the Yucatan. There aren’t any major changes vs. what we were looking at yesterday, save for a little bit of acceleration. Expect the storm to landfall on Wednesday south of Tallahassee as a strong tropical storm.

UPDATE 9pm – The latest forecast from the NHC has Idalia landfalling at a Category 2 level. That seems a little high to me, but ultimately, what is most important is that the storms projected landfall is at a pretty low density part of the state. Let’s hope that’s how it ends up.

UPDATE 1115PM – No big changes to Idalia, but the threat for for tropical weather will cut off the inflow to the Midwest. Things should be drier mid to late week in the Mississippi Valley