It’s been a long, tough end to the cold season in the Upper Midwest for fans of warmer conditions. May started with more bad news for sunbathers of Omaha. After a storm system dipped south of Nebraska’s largest town, the clear air never forced its way in. Instead, the cold air behind the system settled in, and there was no way to heat it up, thanks to a persistent layer of clouds that lasted through the forecast period. Generally speaking, forecast outlets were more optimistic than what the situation called for. Weatherbug tends to have the chilliest forecasts, and the weather in Omaha played to their advantage on this occasion. Actuals: Tuesday, .06″ of rain, High 53, Low 41 Wednesday – High 54, Low 48
I’m as shocked as you are to see that I am able to put together this award ceremony in a mostly timely manner. It features a return of last year’s overall champion to a spot at the top. I have to commend Weatherbug on their growth through the years. Very often, they were tied to a Weather Channel forecast, and made changes with deleterious results. Now, in 2021, and at least in April 2022, they seem to have figured things out. Congratulations, Weatherbug!
Omaha seems an interesting place to forecast for, given recent outlooks for the region. While today, the severe threat is to the south, if it stays there remains to be seen.
At 252PM, CT, Omaha was reporting cloudy skies with light rain with a temperature of 44 degrees. Brisk easterly winds persisted throughout the region, and worked mostly to hold the heaviest rain at bay, at least for the time being. A band of persistent rain showed on radar from Denison, Iowa to Columbus, Nebraska, and would eventually sink through Omaha tonight, A short wave moving through the central Plains had sunk closer to Kansas City, and the coldest, wettest shot was moving through the Omaha region. This very same system is causing some wet snow in the western part of Nebraska, but it doesn’t seem like enough cold air will cycle far enough to the east for that to be an issue in Omaha before the precipitation wraps up. The short wave means this system is moving fairly quickly, even if the rain training across the region makes that seem counterintuitive. Things will dry out fairly abruptly overnight, with mostly cloudy skies by tomorrow morning. The next shortwave is already presenting itself in the Pacific Northwest, and will approach Omaha by mid week. Tuesday will largely be unseasonably cool but pleasant, while the next round will increase the clouds on Wednesday. An inverted trough could bring light rain to the region on Wednesday afternoon, with the full brunt of the feature waiting until Friday morning. Tomorrow – A bit of rain before sunrise, then clearing. High 61, Low 43 Wednesday- Clouds increase with a spot of rain late, High 62, Low 45
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early, followed by partial clearing (early rain) High 60, Low 41 Wednesday – Cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 63, Low 41
AW: Tomorrow – Cool; cloudy in the morning, then clouds and sun in the afternoon (AM Rain) High 59, Low 41 Wednesday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine (PM rain) High 63, low 42
NWS: Tomorrow – Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny (Early rain), High 60, low 43 Wednesday – A 40 percent chance of showers after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, High 61, Low 44
WB: Tomorrow – Decreasing clouds, late rain, High 56, low 41 Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, a chance of showers in the afternoon. High 59, Low 44
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, high 60, low 42 Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 62, Low 42
FIO: Tomorrow – Rain overnight and in the morning.High 59, Low 41 Wednesday – Rain in the evening and overnight. High 62, Low 41
Happy 40th birthday to the Weather Channel! here is a look at the radar from the Omaha region. Very busy!
have you ever seen those paper targets after really good shots are done, and the holes are all pretty close to the center of the target? That was like our forecast in Baltimore. Everyone got an A on the forecast rating, thanks to high pressure, and no funny business. Clouds rolled in last Monday exactly as they were supposed to. The top forecast went to Weatherbug, who was nearly spot on. Actuals: April 25th, High 78, low 53 April 26th, Hight 69, Low 53
The weather has certainly been active this spring, and especially so if you consider how busy the Storm Prediction Center has remained since December of last year. Fortunately, since the devastation wrought in western Kentucky, southern Illinois and many places surrounding, we haven’t seen the type of devastation that stays in headlines for days.
That’s not to say the storms have been any less violent so far this year. In fact, there was an EF-4 tornado last month that swept through Winterset, Iowa, claiming the life of 6. That was as strong as the Mayfield, Kentucky tornado. The substantive difference is that Winterset is not as large a town as Mayfield, but the Winterset tornado also did not have as long a track as the western Kentucky storm.
A look at the tornado tracks this year show that, while there have indeed been many twisters this year, most of them were weak, and a lot of them were in Dixie Alley.
By Supportstorm – Own work, CC0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=115162410
By and large, those storms are avoiding the largest population centers, and haven’t been particularly virulent, as tornadoes go.
The pending change is twofold. First, tomorrow, the threat for significant weather targets an area including Tulsa and Wichita. Over the weekend, the threat includes the Dallas Fort Worth area. In general, the storms are going to affect a more populated area. Second, the storms are going to possess a notably higher threat for strong tornadoes. The hatched area in the SPC’s outlook for tomorrow indicates a threat of large (EF-2 or greater) tornadoes in an area. Those are big twisters dangerously close to Kansas City and Oklahoma City, potentially.
Big storms in more populated places remind us that we are definitely in severe weather season, and it is time to keep an extra eye on the sky.
Spring is supposed to be here. Really, it should be right around the corner. Why not drive to the lake? Specifically, this day and a half trip will cover the 776 miles between Chesapeake Bay and southeast Wisconsin. We will make the journey at a pace of 60.3mph. Thanks side streets and Chicago! The first day drive will cover 482 miles, leaving that Chicago chunk for day two.
DAY ONE (Thursday)
Baltimore, Maryland
The cold air in pursuit of an offshore cold front is going to cycle through New England and the mid-Atlantic tomorrow, likely pressing some mid and low level clouds through the undulating terrain of Pennsylvania. Light rain looks to be suppressed by local high pressure, and moisture is getting drawn towards a developing lee trough. Cloudy and cool, then, until we get to the toledo area and call it a night.
DAY TWO (Friday)
A warm front will be working it’s way north throughout the day on Friday, starting, I suppose, even on Thursday. Moisture will be penned closer to the Mississppi and the Illinois-Missouri border as we pass through Chicago, though a DEFCON 1 rain shower can’t be ruled out as we navigate the Windy City. It’s going to rain this weekend in Racine, but it probably won’t be when we arrive.
I’ve been to Baltimore a couple of times. I saw Oriole Park and the Inner Harbor, and both were a joy. What about the weather, will that be as joyful?
At 1154PM, ET, Baltimore was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees. Clear or fair skies were reported across the mid-Atlantic, with a high amplitude ridge along the coast, merging, but not quite fully in phase, with a strong Bermuda High. Seasonably strong storm features spun south of Newfoundland, and again over the Upper Midwest, and were connected by mid and high clouds in New England, showing off where the jet structure was strongest. The cold front with the trailing system will press eastward into the ridge, breaking down both the front and the ridge. Clouds will become more likely, as will some coastal haze, which will keep temperatures in check to start the work week. Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 55 Monday – Clouds likely, High 70, Low 54
TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny High 80, Low 53 Monday – Mostly cloudy skies High 71, Low 54
AW: Tomorrow – Partial sunshine High 79, Low 54 Monday – Intervals of clouds and sun High 70, Low 54
NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, High 77, Low 53 Monday – Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, partly sunny High 70, Low 54
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 53 Monday – Patchy fog in the morning, High 68, Low 53
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 54 Monday – Partly cloudy High 70, Low 54
FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 77, Low 51 Monday – Overcast throughout the day. High 70, Low 53
Head on over to WBAL to see friend of the Blog Tony Pann give the forecast for Baltimore, noting the wide variety of temperatures across Maryland tonight.
A feature that got organized along the Gulf Coast last weekend threatened to bring some showers and storms as far north as Joplin, but alas, that was not the case. Well, sure, there were a few sprinkles on the 15th, even a rumble of thunder, but it wasn’t a washout, and that rain didn’t return on Saturday. There were plenty of clouds, though, and a little surge of cooler air, keeping temperatures below forecasts on every verifying period except the Friday low, in which the clouds kept things a bit warmer overnight. There was a tie at the top, between The Weather Channel and Accuweather. Actuals: Friday, .05 inches of rain, High 69, Low 50 Saturday – High 60, Low 45
Everyone loves to talk about the weather, as I’m sure you do (you’re here at this site, after all) but depending on where you are this April, you might have a decidedly different conversation. If you are in the southern US, you are probably talking about how stormy this year has been. In the north, you probably can’t get over how chilly things have remained all spring.
For an explanation, we need to look even bigger than we usually do, beyond the confines of the Contiguous US. The answer lies in the jet structure across the United States. As you may already be aware, bigger features are more challenging to move in the atmosphere, and there is an enormous trough that keeps recycling and sustaining itself, and the base of that trough has run across the northern United States.
Take a look at the big picture, the jet forecast for this afternoon.
Typically, if I am looking at the US forecast, I would note the deep trough coming to the west coast was, or even noting the ripple in the northern Great Lakes, but when taking into account the spring writ large thus far, and unfortunately for the coming weeks, the immediate notice is that the larger waves are the ridges bracketing the United States.
There are semi-permanent features in the ocean, certainly, including the Bermuda High, and the existence of the ridges are not unusual. Some things that are factoring into making this spring unusual is the amplitude of the trough over North America. It should be starting to retreat into Canada, bringing some calm to the south, and allowing warmth to filter back north, but the mean trough is instead littered with localized troughs like the one set to upset this weekend.
Another peculiarity is how weak the trough in the Gulf of Alaska is. The Aleutian Low is as permanent s the Bermuda High, but right now, and for a while, this feature has been replaced by transient features moving into the Pacific Northwest. This gives this larger continental wave more breadth, and makes it more difficult to move.
With the mean trough over the US running through the northern tier of states, it is penning cold air that same swath of the country. On the same note, the sun is getting stronger, so warmth is building south of the jet. This clash of air masses at the surface, when coupled with the relatively shorter waves moving across the nation, is making for an active storm season, and a chilly spring, depending on what side of the divide you are on. Eventually, the pattern will break, but there isn’t an immediate sign of that happening quite yet.
