Jackson, Michigan

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We sure are looking at an interesting forecast for the Great Lakes today. It’s a mystery even what type of precipitation will be falling in an hour.

At 1256AM, ET, Jackson was reporting a brisk 35mph easterly wind gust with overcast skies and a temperature of 37 ahead of a vast batch of heavy rain consuming most, if not all of western Michigan. A large area of occluded low pressure is centered over north central Iowa. The occluded boundary is ranging from there to Michigan. Jackson appears to northeast of the warm occlusion. Much of Michigan is in a winter weather warning or advisory, however Jackson is south of these alerts.
After the rain that will come this morning, a well defined dry tongue will move into Lower Michigan through the middle of the day on Sunday. The back end of this feature is becoming significantly less organized and unable to access the same level of moisture. Still, light snow showers will persist in the Jackson region into Monday afternoon, but a cool down is not likely to follow suit after becoming cut off from the deeply occluded circulation.
Tomorrow – early rain, becoming mixed and eventually predominately snow in the evening. High 37, Low 33
Monday – Light wet snow, High 33, Low 28

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain ending early. Remaining cloudy, High 43, Low 35
Monday – Overcast, early snow, HIgh 35, Low 28

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers, perhaps mixed with snow late in the day High 43, Low 35
Monday – Low clouds and colder HIgh 35, Low 29

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely, mainly before 10am. (Late mix) HIgh 42, Low 35
Monday – Cloudy (Early mix becoming snow) HIgh 35, Low 27

WB: Tomorrow – Rain showers likely (late mix) High 43, Low 34
Monday – Cloudy (Early mix) High 34, Low 28

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with rain likely, High 42, Low 35
Monday – Mostly cloudy )Early mix), High 35, Low 31

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain throughout the day. High 42, Low 34
Monday – Overcast throughout the day. HIgh 35, Low 28

That was a difficult forecast. The precipitation in western Michigan has already started a transition to a mix, even as I was writing this forecast post, if that gives an idea of the uncertainty we will be dealing with.

Major storms ready to tie up holiday travel

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2019 may go down as one of the worst Thanksgivings for travelling in a very long time. As I sit on the south side of the Twin Cities metro area, skies are already starting to turn gray as a vast area of low pressure and some accompanying snow fall makes it’s way to the north. The latest forecast from the Twin Cities WFO calls for a foot through the heart of the metro area.

Snow has been ongoing today, particularly in northern Colorado, eastern Wyoming and across Nebraska, where it has closed schools, covered roads and severely disrupted Denver’s airport.

Since this isn’t a storm in the heart of the winter, there is the cold, snowy side, but also a side with strong to severe thunderstorms. There has already been one tornado warning in southern Missouri today, with more strong storms anticipated, particularly in eastern Arkansas.

The storm is going to continue strengthening over the next 12-24 hours, reaching maximum intensity somewhere over northern Wisconsin, meaning the snow that has fallen in the Upper Midwest will be , and the snow in Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula will be wind driven. Altogether an unpleasant scenario. And that’s not even the worst of it.

THERE IS ANOTHER STORM.

This second storm, thanks to travel across the north Pacific is in the process of explosive cyclogenesis – a bomb cyclone – and will slam into the northern California coast tonight. With it will come more gusty winds, rain and a whole lot of snow the interior west. While much of California will appreciate the rain, they could do without more wind, and the snow inland will be fairly comprehensive. That is to say, it’s not going to be confined solely to the mountains. Take a look at the watches and warnings presently plastered across the country.

All the oranges and browns are wind related alerts, thanks to the potency of the first system, while southern Arizona is also under threat for flooding, thanks to the moisture they’ve recently received, and will be reintroduced to this week.

Most of the time, foot of snow the day before Thanksgiving would be bad enough, but in the Midwest, they will also need to concern themselves with the weather after Thanksgiving. If folks somehow managed to leave the house and visit their relatives, they will then need to contend with a second round of snow that will likely start as light freezing rain, particularly from about Sioux Falls to Omaha.

In my back yard, we are probably looking at another 2-4″ of snow on top of a glaze of ice, and more gusty winds to conclude what will be a very long holiday weekend.

Onshore and off the pace

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The cold front that roiled the afternoon in the southeastern US yesterday induced a southeasterly, onshore flow over the eastern coast of Florida. Palm Bay’s Saturday forecast proved to be a hair too warm across the board because of the cool onshore breezes. Lingering moisture kept the overnight lows from dropping off too much either. The end result of these curious happenstances was a forecast win for WeatherBug, who seem to know something we don’t this month.
Actuals: Friday, High 76, Low 56
Saturday – High 76, Low 63

Grade B-C

Charlotte, North Carolina to Florence, Alabama

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On this Saturday evening, all I can think is that this drive is going to take us right through SEC country. We’ll depart from ACC territory, I suppose, as we take an 8 hour, somewhat circuitous drive to northern Alabama. We will be on the road covering 507 miles at a pace of only 64.9mph. But really, check out this route.

Charlotte, North Carolina

There is a small, tightly wound area of low pressure shuttling through the southeastern US towards the Mid-Atlantic overnight tonight. By the time we wake up to get on the road, the low will be a thing of the past, leaving only a shallow lee trough, which may aid in the development of some fog in the wee hours. After we get to the higher terrain in South Carolina, and then head through north Georgia in the daylight, we will only be concerned with traffic and the sun shining in our eyes. All in all, Saturday will be the better day to travel this weekend.

Florence, Alabama

Lost in a fog

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Forecasts for Decatur were generally not too bad, save for one nasty verifying period: Wednesday morning. Even if they didn’t explicitly say they were expecting fog in their forecast (erm, I guess that was only me) it was still in the back of our minds. Decatur did see visibilities drop to a quarter of a mile in the morning, and despite that, temperatures continued to drop, all the way to 26. The 3 coolest morning lows all collected the three top forecasts, with The Weather Channel and Forecast.io earning victory. The temperature tracking surrounding the occluded front on Thursday surprisingly didn’t play into the victory totals at all.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 51, low 26
Thursday – .24 inches of rain, High 58, low 40

Grade: B-C

Palm Bay, Florida

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

There are so many cities in Florida, all clustered on the Atlantic coast, and we’re involved in a little East Florida two-step, recently looking at Sebastian, and now moving on to Palm Bay, which isn’t very far away at all.

At 1253PM, ET, Palm Bay was reporting a temperature of 76 degrees with fair skies. High pressure was smothering the southeastern US, allowing for the pleasant conditions. Cool air being cycled south by the remnants of Tropical Storm Sebastian was generating some rolling fair weather clouds over the southern Gulf Stream.
The dome of high pressure will remain centered over the Florida Peninsula for the next couple of days, even as a wave moves southeast out of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Some return flow at the surface may lead to some extra cloudiness through all hours over the Palm Bay area.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 58
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 81, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon. High 77, Low 59
Saturday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 80, Low 60

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and pleasant High 77, Low 62
Saturday – Partly sunny and pleasant High 80, Low 61

NWS Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 78, Low 56
Saturday – Partly sunny, High 81, Low 58

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 76, Low 56
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 79, low 60

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 77, Low 59
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 80, Low 60

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 77, low 60
Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 80, Low 59

Not a lot of forecast variety, but a bit of space between bosom buddies the NWS and WeatherNation. Here is the afternoon’s satellite imagery for the state of Florida.

Reno, Nevada to Decatur, Illinois

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A trip through the Rockies and Plains as a vigorous system moves through the region… I see no reason to worry! Our three day trip will feature an extended third day, and 1,861 total miles covered. We’ll navigate the terrain of the Rockies in our shorter two days, which will conclude after 551miles of travel, all at an average pace of about 69mph. Nice.

DAY ONE (Thursday)

Reno, Nevada

There is a string of features extending from the northern Praries of Canada to the High Plains to the southwestern US. Epic rains are falling around Phoenix and in the southern Rockies, with snow falling at the highest peaks. By the time we get going tomorrow, the system will have weakened, with precipitation becoming limited to the upper elevations along our route. We may not see any precipitation on the roads, but there will be some nearby, in the Ruby Range in northeast Nevada, and by Park City, Utah. We’ll stop in Coalville, not too far beyond Park City.

DAY TWO (Friday)
As high pressure filters back into the High Plains, moisture will be scoured out of the low lying terrain. We might see some mid level or high clouds as we trek through Wyoming, north of the snow falling in the peaks of Colorado. Wyoming has a lot of beautiful parts, but none of them are along I-80, so hustle through and get to the western part of Nebraska, where we will stop in Brule for the night.

DAY THREE (Saturday)
The very same system that we saw on Thursday will be sweeping through the Lower Mississippi Valley, shuttling to the northeast. An inverted trough at the north end of the low will be pointed into Illinois, into some chilly air. Nebraska and Iowa should be sunny and dry, but the threat and intensity of snow will increase the closer we get to Decatur.

Decatur, Illinois

Decatur, Illinois

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I feel like the heart of Illinois is a good place to really see what synoptic scale weather patterns can do

AT 854PM, CT, Decatur was reporting a temperature of 36 degrees. Above freezing temperatures after fresh rain and snow have led to low clouds and fog beginning to develop in the region thanks to clear skies and calm winds. After what should be a foggy morning tomorrow, emerging low pressure in the High Plains will drive warm air northward throughout the day tomorrow.
Decatur is far enough south that the emerging low will bring a threat for rain or even an isolated rumble of thunder as the feature slides north towards the Upper Midwest and sends an active cold front into Illinois by sunrise. The system is going to be fast moving and will be through by the early afternoon, leaving a chilly but clear evening by Thursday.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 50, Low 32
Thursday – Rain early, at times heavy, High 54, Low 41

TWC: Tomorrow – Areas of patchy fog early. Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 51, Low 29
Thursday – Showers in the morning then continued cloudy and windy in the afternoon. High 59, Low 44

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy and milder High 52, Low 32
Thursday – Breezy and mild in the morning; otherwise, cloudy with showers, mainly early in the day High 60, Low 45

NWS: Tomorrow – Widespread fog, mainly before 8am. Otherwise, partly sunny, High 53, Low 33
Thursday – Rain, mainly before noon High 61, Low 43

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, Widespread fog in the morning, High 49, Low 31
Thursday – Rain in the morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon, High 57, Low 41

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 53, Low 33
Thursday – Partly cloudy with light rain, High 61, Low 46

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 49, Low 28
Thursday – Light rain and windy in the morning. High 61, Low 41

It’s going to be a pretty virulent system that moves through the country this week, but if there is any good news, it’s that it is moving through now, rather than later in the season, when more snow would fall, or in the spring, when severe storms are likely. Here, we can just see fog developing.

The remarkable 2013 Moore tornado

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Recently posted on Youtube and Reddit, this compilation of videos, synchronized to play with each other if they were from the same time period, is a remarkable reminder of just how devastating the tornado was, and the fact that the video is almost an hour long shows just how dangerous the storm was.

For whatever reason, perhaps because I am a meteorologist, I’ve been thinking quite a bit about some of the more recent major tornadoes to afflict the country in the last few years. Moore has been hit by no less than three major tornadoes this century, but somehow, places like Joplin and Tuscaloosa show their scars more evidently.

Google Maps’ satellite view allows us to see, quite apparently, the course of tornadoes, even many years after they have passed through. Here are the overhead views of Joplin and Tuscaloosa today.

Joplin, with tornado scar highlighted

If you look look closely, the scar has a lighter hue than the area outside of the affected region. There are two reasons for this. First, Tuscaloosa and Joplin are both well forested cities, and the stripping of the canopy has a profound effect on an area, even over the long term. For another reference, here is an image I captured of north Minneapolis, where the tornado wasn’t as strong, but it was still enough to strip the canopy across the path.

Second, these areas are being redeveloped, and there is still widespread construction throughout the damaged regions.

Moore didn’t leave the same impression, for two reasons. One, Oklahoma isn’t as arboraceous as even nearby Joplin, nor Tuscaloosa. Second, Moore’s 2013 tornado was among 5 tornadoes, including 3 of EF4 or greater that have hit the town in the past 21 years alone. Moore is in a constant state of reinvention.

That is the theme of all of these cities, then. Rebirth and resilience. It’s important to understand the danger tornadoes pose to see how these towns bounce back, and the strength of their spirit. You can’t have a scar without injury, but the mark it leaves is a symbol of the constant healing.