Jefferson City, Missouri to Casper, Wyoming

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I love absolutely nothing more than mostly rural road trips through the middle of nowhere. Imagine how big Casper is going to seem after this 2 day voyage! It’s a 921 mile journey between these two towns, which we will pace at 64.5mph, ending the first day at the 516 mile mark. Let’s go on this windswept journey!

DAY ONE (Wednesday)

Jefferson City, Missouri

A broad, disorganized area of low pressure has been bringing fairly steady light snow to much of the Northern Plains for the last couple of days. It’s a nuisance, but it hasn’t yet drifted so far south to impact Missouri, and the drive through the Show Me State and Kansas City will be fine. We will pop north and cut through Lincoln (the last sizeable town for the rest of the drive) and head west, where a lobe of that mass of light snow will start digging to the south. The feature won’t reach Nebraska until the overnight, and we should reach Lexington, in south central Nebraska without much fuss. Don’t let that lull you into a false sense of security.

DAY TWO (Thursday)
Windy conditions with light snow can make for some terrible visibility, and that is what we can expect west of North Platte. The precipitation, but not the wind, will taper by noon, with the snow becoming more likely in the mountains off Wyoming by the end of the day. Snow or no snow, conditions will be challenging in Nebraska, and only a little bit better in Wyoming. If the roads are clear, that will be good news. Casper certainly sounds like a friendly destination, doesn’t it? It will have a faint dusting of snow when we arrive.

Casper, Wyoming

A big rebound

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We were forecasting down in east Texas to start the month of November, which was buried under a combination of cold air and onshore flow. College Station was even cooler than expected on the 1st, partially because of a little bit of light rain that fell on town to start the the month, and partially because of the lingering effects of a powerful early season cold front. The trough was narrow though, and temperatures bounced back vigorously on the 2nd, going from a high of 68 on the first to 79 on the 2nd. The National Weather Service collected the victory for this forecast posted on Halloween.
Actuals: Nov 1st – .05 inches of rain, High 68, Low 58
Nov 2nd – High 79, Low 54

Grade: B-C

Jefferson City, Missouri

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We are heading back to Missouri for our forecast today, and this time, we are taking it to the manager, visiting the state capital.

At 553AM, CT, Jefferson City was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 65 degrees with clear skies. Low pressure centered over the Upper Midwest is producing a warm front that ranged through the northern Great Lakes, and was drawing forth a significant warm surge through the Mississippi Valley, bringing forth the unusual warmth in early November.
As with most autumnal systems, there is a strong cold front dangling off the back end of the low pressure center, This active pattern is also punctuated by the remnants of Hurricane Nicole over Florida, and drifting north into southern Appalachia. The cold front will be active with showers and storms over northwestern Missouri this afternoon and evening, with the chance of a shower arriving near sunrise tomorrow. Nicole, however, will sap most of the moisture moving towards Jefferson City, which will tone down the rain chances through the day Friday. That said, mid layer clouds and a rush of cooler air will still trail the boundary, making for a chilly start to the weekend.
Tomorrow – Early showers lead to clouds and cold, High 52, Low 30
Saturday – Partly cloudy but colder, High 37, Low 22

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 51, Low 33
Saturday – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 40, Low 24

AW: Tomorrow – A passing shower in the morning; otherwise, partly to mostly sunny and cooler; the colder weather will linger into next week High 53, Low 32
Saturday – Mostly sunny and cold High 40, Low 24

NWS: Tomorrow – Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, (early storms) High 50, Low 30
Saturday – Sunny High 38, Low 24

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny (early rain), High 53, Low 32
Saturday – Sunny, High 40, Low 26

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 34
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 38, Low 24

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain overnight and in the morning. High 51, Low 31
Saturday – Clear throughout the day. High 40, Low 25

The cold front over northern Missouri is looming. Enjoy the heat today, because winter is around the corner.

September/October Forecaster of the Month

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In the past, when I was unable to get to a forecaster of the month, and I paired two months into one post, I would title the post “ForecasterS of the Month.” You’ll note that I did not pluralize it this time around, for the very good reason that the forecaster was one and the same for both months. Autumn has swept in, and Victoria-Weather has swept two months in a row!

This is a win, admittedly, for model guidance. Hurricane Ian devastated southwest Florida, but otherwise, the US was impressively dry. Precipitation was sparse, which meant there was little variation from model guidance, and V-W knew how to read the output. Go team!

OutletForecast Wins (year)
Weatherbug7.33
The Weather Channel7.33
Accuweather7.32
Victoria-Weather6.82
National Weather Service6.16
WeatherNation4.83
Forecast.io4.16

Needed rain

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When a drought is on, there is nothing better than a long, steady rain, and at the beginning of last week, that is exactly what Columbia, Missouri got. Over two inches of rain fell between Monday and Tuesday of last week, giving the region a drink, and starting to rejuvenate the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers. Everyone had rain in the forecast, and correctly prognosticated a non-standard day, though I don’t think anyone was this optimistic on total rainfall. Weatherbug had the top forecast for the day, which ultimately came down to solid temperature trending.
Actuals: Monday, Oct 24th, .59 inches of rain, High 74, Low 58
Tuesday, October 25th, 1.45 inches of rain, High 56, Low 42

Grade: B-D

College Station, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Texas A&M is located in College Station, and is home to a very good meteorology school. One suspects that at least one of the forecasters in this competition will have a close connection with College Station.

AT 1253PM, CT, College Station was reporting a temperature of 73 with clear skies. A jet streak aloft over east Texas was evident in some streaming cirrus over the region. Further to the south, a thatch of clouds over southern Texas represented return flow on the back end of surface high pressure. As the jet streak carries to the northeast, the Gulf will open further, with moisture allowed to trek north through the state.
A weak trough at the entrance of the jet streak is going to exacerbate the shower activity in south Texas, with rain bubbling up through much of the southern half of the Lone Star State. As this upper wave transitions away, and an upper ridge establishes over the center of the country, high pressure will recommit to the southeastern US. Flow into an area of low pressure developing in the High Plains will route north of College Station, and a warm, dry start to November is anticipated.
Tomorrow – Chance of evening showers, otherwise warm, High 73, Low 58
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 76, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy early with partial sunshine expected late.  High 75, Low 58
Wednesday – Partly cloudy skies. High 80, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a couple of showers High 73, Low 60
Wednesday – Pleasant with sun and areas of low clouds High 79, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers before 1pm. Partly sunny, High 72, Low 59
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 56

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. High 71, Low 60
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 58

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 72, Low 54
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 79, Low 56

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 70, Low 57
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 77, Low 59

Tomorrow, in a worst case scenario, might necessitate kids staying indoors and eating a whole lot of candy. Happy Halloween!

Cold enough for you?

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Pocatello behaved mostly as expected, if you managed to sleep in every day. If you woke up early though on the 18th and 19th, you would find that temperatures were significantly colder than what most outlets forecast. It wasn’t a bad forecast overall for the winners (Who happened to be us, Victoria-Weather) because the high temperatures were handled well, and the precipitation threat was for later in the week. Low temperatures ended up as low as 26 on the 19th, which was a bit cooler than the 40s WeatherNation threw out there.
Actuals: October 18th, High 76, Low 30
October 19th, High 73, Low 26

Grade: C-D

Coming Soon…

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The question when I tell you what is coming soon is, as always “how soon”? I don’t have a good answer for that, but my hope is a more regular schedule between now and the holidays, before things invariably go sideways again. Let’s keep our fingers crossed!

Jefferson City, Missouri

Road Trip from Jefferson City to Casper, Wyoming

Racine, Wisconsin
Road trip from Lakeland, Florida to Racine

Columbia, Missouri to Fond du Lac, Wisconsin

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If you know any thing about me, know that I love it that we take road trips that are a bit different The trip, just shy of 8 hours, makes it’s biggest turn at Cedar Rapids. Has that ever happened? I don’t think so! It’s a 491 mile trek, covering 3 states at a pace of about 62mph. And we get to see Cedar Rapids!

Columbia, Missouri

Low pressure spinning over the mountains is going to sink deeper to the southern Plains. The light rain showers that are threatening the Upper Midwest are going to be drawn south to the more organized region of instability in Texas by the time we would depart tomorrow. The weather will get less cloudy and potentially a few degrees warmer as we head to eastern Wisconsin.

Fond du Lac, Wisconsin

Passing showers pass by

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There was a threat of some showers cycling through south Texas on the back of tropical storm Karl, which was spinning down in the Bay of Campeche. Tropical storms, until the reach land, tend to draw moisture towards themselves, and this was the case in Brownsville in the middle of October. It was hot and dry in Brownsville for our forecast period, which led to a forecast victory for WeatherNation, which had the combined success of a their piggybacking off of the Weather Service’s temperature forecast, and their own foresight to leave rain out of the forecast.
Actuals: October 14th, High 92, Low 74
October 15th, High 91, Low 74

Grade: A – B