While for many, it has been a long, hot summer, it’s actually been a bit truncated and cooler than normal in the southeastern United States. The remnants of Ida caused terrible destruction in the Northeast, all while trailing a cold front that developed as the storm became extra tropical, which tailed through north Florida as we forecast for Hinesville on Wednesday. As the work week concluded, Hinesville was able to enjoy some mild temperatures, along with the sunshine. It’s not often they get to see those two in concert, particularly in the summer. Also rare was Forecast.io’s solo victory. Actuals: Thursday – High 90, Low 73 Friday – High 86, Low 67
Hurricane Ida made her landfall at the end of August, and continued to the eastern Seaboard to provide devastating rainfall and flash flooding before she expired at the beginning of September. Ida was an extraordinary storm, both for the strength at landfall, (and the forecast accuracy as it arrived, which definitely saved lives) and the flash flooding rains, which led to the second flash flood emergencies ever issued by the New York City office of the National Weather Service — the first was earlier in the month with Henri. It exposed the poor infrastructure of the region, which is ill equipped for torrential rains. which will only become more likely as we head into the future.
We had a lot of forecasts in the month of August, and some were impacted by the broad scope of Ida. Otherwise, heat and a break to some drought issues in the upper Midwest were the theme for the months. The Weather Channel concluded the month of August with the victory, followed closely by Weatherbug, a tandem that owns a tie at the top so far in 2021.
We’re ending the summer with a long trip across the country. It will take 4 and a half days, covering 2568 miles. That puts us on a brisk pace of 69.4mph, which won’t seem as great, since we will be on this pace for the better part of a week. The result of each day of driving will be 555 miles traveled. Not bad at all, actually, even if it will still take until Thursday to arrive.
DAY ONE (Sunday)
Hinesville, Georgia
Low pressure in the Great Lakes is demonstrating a nearly perfect comma shape, dangling a cold front from its eastern periphery southwestward towards the southern Plains. The front itself is in pretty rough shape, speaking of precipitation, and isn’t bringing a wintry onslaught, thanks to another system up in northern Canada., but it is going to dangle into our day one route. driving through Georgia and Alabama should mostly be ok, but some isolated showers and storms may pop up at the end of the day’s drive near the Alabama-Mississippi border. They shouldn’t be too obtrusive, but certainly possible. The day ends in Hickory Flat, Mississippi.
DAY TWO (Monday)
The front will be behind us as we leave on Labor Day morning, and while it will probably be cloudy until we hit Arkansas, it shouldn’t be rainy. The sun will be out not long after we reach Arkansas, and we will enjoy the sunshine all the way to Yukon, an Oklahoma City suburb.
DAY THREE (Tuesday)
Even a subsequent area of low pressure churning through the northern Plains and Great Lakes won’t be enough to pull up a return flow into west Texas. The drive from Oklahoma to New Mexico will be dusty and lonely. We’ll make it past Albuquerque, and the day will conclude in Highland Meadows, which is about 20 minutes west of Albuquerque.
DAY FOUR (Wednesday)
The drought continues in the west, and as if to confirm that for us, we will drive through Arizona, which is desertified at the best of times, and end our drive in the Mohave Natural Preserve about an hour into California. About 5 hours left for our Thursday in some blistering heat.
DAY FIVE (Thursday)
Make sure that AC is working. We’ll turn north at Barstow, and it will remain plenty toasty all the way up past Fresno and into Madera. Don’t be surprised if 110’s buckle roads for the last stretch of the drive. Some clouds my finally cool things down on our first full day in Madera, but it sure will be hot when we arrive.
We’re off to the central Valley of California today, to reexamine one of the ongoing hardships wrought upon our planet this summer. Drought continues in California, with fires east of the Madera area. Is there hope on the way?
At 1153AM, PT, Madera was reporting sunny skies and a temperature of 87 degrees. There was a heat advisory in place for the central Valley and the southern California high country along the Nevada border was under an excessive heat watch. High pressure on the west coast was particularly robust and allowing of the abnormal heat. Low pressure is spiraling independently in the eastern Pacific, and it will give a guide to the shape of the surface ridge through the next couple of days. It will ride well off shore north to the Gulf of Alaska low and begin to merge with that feature. the ridge in the west will change generally unchanged, but the onshore will carry over the Coastal Range and only make it hotter by Monday. Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 101, Low 58 Monday – Mostly sunny, High 103, Low 59
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine High 102, Low 58 Monday – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 104, Low 62
AW: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot; danger of dehydration and heat stroke if outside for extended periods of time High 99, Low 59 Monday – Mostly sunny and hot; danger of dehydration and heat stroke if outside for extended periods of time High 103, Low 63
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, high 98, Low 61 Monday – Mostly sunny and hot High 101, Low 65
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 99, Low 62 Monday – Mostly sunny, High 103, Low 65
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 99, Low 59 Monday – Mostly sunny, High 102, Low 64
FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 98, Low 63 Monday – Clear throughout the day. High 101, Low 67
A look at the satellite imagery shows smoke in the clouds across the Sierras, but not much in the way of onshore cloud cover.
Next week is the peak of hurricane season. We will feature a lot of forecasts in the southeast, so if anything arises, we will be there to watch for it.
Gainesville, Florida
Tampa, Florida
Columbia, South Carolina
Redding, California Road Trip from Columbia – Redding
The coast of Georgia seems to be growing as a tourist destination. Now that we are headed to the autumn, it’s time to start thinking about going some place war.
At 836PM, ET, Hinesville was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees with partly cloudy skies. The remnant Ida remains impactful over the mid – Atlantic, where tornado watches are bracketing the New York City area, but as it reaches the higher latitudes, it is demonstrating traits of a subtropical low, including a ranging cold front that slides south of the Brunswick area. Showers and thunderstorms are seen as near as Valdosta, but is moving away from Hinesville. The boundary is expected to act as a barrier to onshore flow for the remainder of the work week. Expect a mostly sunny start to September, though the stalled boundary, which will be over north Florida Thursday and Friday, will lead to some waves of clouds in Hinesville. Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 89, Low 72 Friday – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 68
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny along with a few clouds. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 89, Low 72 Friday – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High 86, Low 68
AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sun High 89, Low 74 Friday – Partly sunny; noticeably less humid than recent days High 87, Low 70
NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5pm. Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 71 Friday – Sunny, High 89, Low 69
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 88, Low 74 Friday – Sunny, High 85, Low 71
WN: tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 90, Low 71 Friday – Mostly sunny, High 89, Low 68
FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 89, Low 73 Friday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 87, Low 68
I think the storm activity will stay to the south of Hinesville, but it appears to be a point of contention among the various outlets. Here is a look at the satellite, showing some storms in south Georgia.
It seems like in so many circumstances lately, the weather has met the extreme ends of forecasts. Intensity, heat, rainfall, it just seems that we are reaching the worst case scenario all too often. When we get a record high potential in the forecast, as we had in Hickory for the past weekend, and it fails to come close, that seems like big news too! Instead of surpassing the mid-90s record highs over the weekend, It didn’t even hit 90 on Sunday, and stopped at 90 on Saturday. Weatherbug is usually helped by forecasts that stay on the cool side, and it was no different in Hickory. WB gets the W. Actuals: Saturday – High 90, Low 70 Sunday – High 89, Low 70
Temperatures in Spokane were downright delightful last week. After a long hot summer, they deserved the mid – 70s that they saw, though admittedly, the bit of drizzle early Friday morning was a bit of a tease, given the wildfires and drought encompassing the western US this summer. The Weather Channel collected the top forecast of the day, narrowly, and would have had something special if only they had accounted for the drizzle. Actuals: Thursday – High 77, Low 53 Friday – Trace of rain, High 75, Low 55
Grade: B-C
Victoria-Weather expresses our grief and wishes for a rapid recovery to southeastern Louisiana and the residents that have been so heavily impacted by Hurricane Ida. We encourage readers to donate to hurricane relief via the Red Cross.
Hurricane Ida sits off the coast of Louisiana, and will descend upon the Bayou State tomorrow. Strong winds are already starting to pick up from Mobile to the Mississippi Delta. At this hour, Ida is a Category 2, but she is slowing down her momentum and is anticipated to strengthen rapidly. The NHC suggests that Ida will become a major hurricane, likely a Category 4 before she comes ashore.
Ida’s swift momentum before this point brings good news, in the fact the storm surge will not be as terrible as it could be, given it’s status as a major hurricane. The rapid development before it makes landfall also limits the fetch and the subsequent coastal flooding. Additionally, if Ida closely follows the forecast track, she will landfall south of Houma, a bayou laden, sparsely populated (relatively) stretch of coastline. This is the good news.
The bad news is that a Category 4 storm is still strong. It will pass near enough to New Orleans to cause significant problems. There will also be a disruption to the platforms in the Gulf, and a hike to gas prices nationally as a result. Also, with Ida’s recent slowdown, heavy rain and flash flooding will become a concern. The gravest concern, and what makes Ida more dangerous than most, is that because she is expected to develop so quickly, mass evacuations were not issued. There are simply far more people in the line of fire than there would be typically when a major hurricane is bearing down.
Another bit of good fortune is that Ida is a compact storm, and as a result, will not impact even the entire state of Louisiana. Where she will impact though, will struggle to recuperate. Ida will landfall tomorrow evening, and will finally pull away from Louisiana on Monday evening.
The weekend is fast approaching, and I think that is one thing everyone can come to appreciate. How much, exactly, will Hickorians (?) appreciate the weather this weekend?
At 1053AM, ET, Hickory was reporting a temperature of 80 degrees. Clear skies were reported across the region, however some fog and low clouds appeared in the valleys closer to Asheville. A band of mid and high clouds was seen along and southeast of a line from Greenville to Fayetteville. High pressure was otherwise seizing the day in the Mid Atlantic. There is some weak baroclinicity, which will organize a bit over the weekend outside the mouth of Chesapeake Bay, but the story everyone will be watching is the rapid intensification of Tropical Storm Ida, which will be a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by Saturday evening, likely to make landfall southeast of Lafayette late on Sunday, after lingering just off shore for the weekend, with potentially disastrous side effects. Hor Hickory, this will function to remove moisture or conflicting flow into the region, and will lead to sun and clear skies, which probably means some toasty conditions. Tomorrow – Sunny and warm with haze and fog early, High 94, Low 70 Sunday – Sunny and hot with morning clouds and fog, High 95, Low 71
TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 92, Low 69 Sunday – Sunny skies. High 93, Low 68
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and very warm High 93, Low 68, Sunday – Mostly sunny and warm with the temperature approaching the record of 94 set in 2007 High 93, Low 69
NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, High 93, Low 69 Sunday – Sunny, High 94, Low 68
WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning, Sunny. High 91, Low 70 Sunday – Sunny, High 92, Low 68
WN: Tomorrow = Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 69 Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 94, Low 68
FIO: Tomorrow – Humid throughout the day. High 89, Low 67 Sunday – Humid throughout the day. High 89, Low 65
Hurricane Ida will definitely make headlines this weekend, but her presence will ensure the Carolinas have sunny skies this weekend. Satellite now shows some general clouds in the southeastern part of the state, and lingering fog in the mountains.
