When we forecast for Saginaw last week, there was a storm brewing in the Upper Peninsula. The storm waned overnight, and eventually had its last gasp around Oscoda, with the waning showers hitting the “thumb” of Michigan, east of Saginaw. Another round of storms brought a devastating tornado to Appleton, Wisconsin, along with some late showers and storms that did afflict Saginaw. Those storms did last a few minutes into early morning Tuesday, which really altered the picture for forecast winners and losers. The winner, in the end, was WeatherNation. OK, they would have won anyways, but it did make some mid-level forecasters drop off! Actuals: Monday, July 27th, .21″ of rain, High 88, Low 68 Tuesday, July 28th, .08″ of rain, High 77, Low 70
This summer has been hot, but the temperatures aren’t as rough as they have been lately, and the storm activity in particular is quiet. It’s a perfect time to take a week and cross the country! We’re going to be driving for 6 days, with the 6 day mercifully shorter than the first 5, at a pace of 67.7mph. This will give us daily goals of 542 miles a day as we cross 3046 miles of America.
DAY ONE (Wednesday)
Fresno, California
The story in California and through the Southwest is that it is hot. We will go south to avoid some mountains and drive right through the desert, near Death Valley and past Las Vegas. We won’t find much relief from the heat until we start climbing in Utah, and we won’t do that until near the end of the day. We will stop in southern Utah, in the town of Summit, which lies not far from where we will turn onto I-70.
DAY TWO (Thursday) Moisture is being funneled eastward, which keeping the monsoon stunted. Storms are appearing in Arizona, but I’m not particularly concerned about the mountain passes of the central Rockies. We will make it to the fringes of the mountain community of Golden, west of Denver.
DAY THREE (Friday) It seems like all long road trips end up spending a night in Nebraska. We’re looking into this. Our week will end near Omaha, really on the southwestern outskirts. If there was going to be any rain, this would have been the day, just for the excitement. We’ll still be rain free as we check in to the hotel in Omaha.
DAY FOUR (Saturday) More of the same as we start, with dry skies until Des Moines, for sure. A few scattered showers will emerge as a possibility east of Des Moines, but not one that will ruin our day. Unless they come in Chicago, at which point all bets are off. That would ruin the day. Expect traffic to remain dicey regardless of the weather. Let’s get out of Chicago before the night ends, finishing in LaPorte, Indiana.
DAY FIVE (Sunday) The moisture threat will linger through the weekend, produced by a dissipated area of low pressure and penned by high pressure in the Atlantic. There won’t be much convective activity, and as we reach the hills of Appalachia, the rain will be misty, and more likely the higher we are. The day will end south of Williamsport, in Eastville.
DAY SIX (Monday) In a bit of good news, all that moisture is going to be hemmed to the west of the Appalachians. There may be a bit of low level moisture – fog or light mist – as we set out, but the drive into New England looks to be clear and dry. And significantly cooler than Fresno.
Off to New England as we reach he dog days of summer. I suspect that many residents in the Norwich area would happily be on their way to Martha’s Vineyard or otherwise on vacation this time of year.
At 852PM, ET, Norwich was seeing a temperature of 72 degrees with clear skies. The temperatures over Long Island and near the coast in Connecticut were a shade lower as the sun had less time to shine. Left over mid level moisture along the coast has continued to mean clouds from Long Island southward, and with high pressure parked over the Atlantic will keep it in place for a while. The next feature to keep an eye on is a standing trough in the Great Lakes. While the cold front won’t be moving eastward in any kind of hurry, the little progression there is will draw some of that lingering coastal moisture further north. The mere act of inducing some motion within this moist air mass will lead to some general showers and storms that will eventually reach eastern Connecticut by Thursday evening. Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 86, Low 61 Thursday – Late showers and storms, otherwise mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 67
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 85, Low 59 Thursday – AM Showers, High 88, Low 71
AW: Tomorrow – Humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 83, Low 57 Thursday – Uncomfortably humid with intervals of clouds and sun; an afternoon thunderstorm in parts of the area High 86. Low 70
NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny (late rain), High 84, Low 58 Thursday – A chance of showers before 8am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Patchy fog between 7am and 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 87, Low 68
WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Mostly sunny. (late rain) High 85, Low 64 Thursday – Partly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 87, Low 70
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 84, Low 58 Thursday – Mostly cloudy with showers and isolated storms, High 87, Low 68
CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 86, Low 59 Thursday – Light rain showers, High 87, Low 70
There isn’t enough there, in my opinion, to worry about showers tomorrow. It’s barely concerning on Thursday. Satellite shows those clouds along the Mid-Atantic coast.
9:33AM: Last night, I posted a blurb about hot hot and humid it was in Houston overnight. This morning, I come with better news, but for the Ohio Valley. Pittsburgh is sunny and seeing dew points in the low 60s this morning, promising a comfortable day. Good luck trying to work!
Our forecast takes us to the piping hot Central Valley in California. Right out of the frying pan and into the fire, as they say.
At 653PM, PT, Fresno was reporting a temperature of 102, and smokey skies. The Raleigh Fire is located northeast of town, and smoke is observed at the airport, though the fire is nearly 100% contained. There is an upper level trough moving through the Pacific Northwest, with a ridge moving into the area to start the work week. With flow becoming less organized, laminar upper level winds will be a bit stronger and more westerly. This would typically mean a bit of relief with more Pacific air and the chance for upper level flow, but lighter winds will mitigate any advantages. Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 109, Low 73 Monday – Fair skies, hot, High 110, Low 72
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 107, Low 71 Monday – Sunny, High 108, Low 71
AW: Tomorrow – Sweltering heat with blazing sunshine; heat will be dangerous, minimize outdoor activity High 108, Low 71 Monday – Blazing sunshine with the temperature approaching the record of 110 set in 1946; heat will be dangerous, minimize outdoor activity High 109, Low 71
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 105, Low 71 Monday – Sunny and hot, high 105, Low 71
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 103, Low 76 Monday – Sunny. High 106, Low 75
WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 105, Low 71 Monday – Sunny, High 105, Low 71
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 106, Low 73 Monday – Sunny, High 106, Low 72
This is the rare time where nearly everyone was forecasting below model guidance for several of the models. If some of those runs are right, Fresno will easily surpass that 110 record. Here is a map of Fresno with the location of the Raleigh Fire.
8:25PM: Happy August! We don’t tend to see a lot of the severe weather in the Plains that we can see during the spring and early summer. Late summer and the beginning of fall is typically the province of tropical season. The cold front, steady rain and cool temperatures moving through Michigan tonight are way too early!
