July Forecaster of the Month

It is absolutely a credit to the meteorological community that we are now 7 months into the year, and we still have at least 4 outlets that are legitimate contenders for the Forecaster of the year title, with a 5th not far off the pace. On the strength of a strong summer, and another winning month in July, Accuweather has ensured that they are not to be forgotten, keeping pace with Weatherbug, The Weather Channel and Victoria-Weather. The National Weather Service was second, and showed that they aren’t out of this race yet either. Congratulations to Accuweather!

OutletForecast Wins
The Weather Channel4.83
National Weather Service3.16

Hazy hills

It’s been a summer of low air quality in the Boulder area, and this past weekend was no exception. The heat, however, was not as oppressive as it’s been, or certainly can be in the Front Range, which is a blessing to be sure. Forecasts that tended to the cool side of the mark did best, which typically leads to a win for Weatherbug, as it did this time around. Sunday was a warmer day than Saturday, by 10 degrees after it was surprisingly comfortable to begin the weekend. Still, 91 in the mountains is better than it could be. If only it didn’t smell like a campfire.
Actuals: Saturday – High 81, Low 63
Sunday – High 91, Low 61

Grade: A-C

Bloomington, Indiana

Let’s just keep piling on forecasts. Right now, let’s head to the home of my alma mater’s number 1 basketball rival, Bloomington, home of the (barf) Indiana Hoosiers.

At 153AM, ET, Bloomington was reporting fair skies with a temperature of 67 degrees. Indiana was enjoying a quiet night, however a weak warm front was proving active over Lake Michigan, with a cold front dangled through the Plains and touching off a broken line of severe weather west of the Mississippi. Dew points were in the 60s across Indiana, and ahead of any advancing showers or storms, Sunday will be humid.
The actual wet weather is going to take until early Monday morning, perhaps in the predawn, to arrive in Bloomington. The timing suggests storms will be rain producers, but won’t necessarily bear a severe threat. The boundary will be a fair sight weaker than it is showing tonight, and will disorganize before arriving. This means that Bloomington will likely have a threat for a shower or thunderstorm throughout the day as the region becomes modestly destabilized, rather than withstanding the sharp transition of a front.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, with some clouds building late. High 88, Low 67
Monday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 84, Low 69

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 89, Low 67
Monday – Scattered thunderstorms. Storms may contain strong gusty winds. High 83, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and humid High 90, Low 69
Monday – Intervals of clouds and sun with a thunderstorm in the area; humid High 84, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 90, Low 69
Monday – Isolated showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 8am. Partly sunny, High 84, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy, High 87, Low 69
Monday – Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms, High 82, Low 62

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 90, Low 67
Monday – Partly cloudy iwth chance of thunderstorms, High 85, Low 71

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 88, Low 66
Monday – Rain in the afternoon. High 85, Low 70

The weekend looks ok, but the workweek starts dreary. That qualifies as a good forecast, right?

Cool mountain air

I admit that perhaps I don’t have a full comprehension of what Cleveland, Tennessee is like, but it seems as though many of our forecasting counterparts are in the same boat. Temperatures overnight, even in the dog days of summer, sure get comfortable! Low temperatures, closer to – and on Thursday lower than – 60 were well off the forecast mark. Showers and storms never reached the region, further bewildering many outlets. Two of the dry forecasters were at the top of the table, with Victoria-Weather following Forecast.io for the win.
Actuals: Thursday, High 91, Low 58
Friday – High 89, Low 60

Grade: C-D

Florence, Alabama

We’re getting our forecasting chops to start August, so it’s a bit too bad that the pattern is so docile. Maybe I should watch what I say before I start tossing out bad forecasts.

At 153PM, CT, Florence was reporting a temperature of 89 degrees with partly cloudy skies, with an isolated thunderstorm close to Huntsville, with even heavier activity to the southeast. A weak over the Smokey Mountains was helping to enflame shower and thunderstorms across the southeastern US, and will leave the threat of storms in the forecast for Florence this afternoon.
There is some upper level structure responsible for this trough, which means there will be some progression. A vast ridge will build in the eastern US, leading to clearing for Florence and a lot of the surrounding area while the trough shifts well off to sea. Expect warming conditions with the bonus sunshine on Sunday. Part of the progressive pattern means low pressure will be able to drop the tail of cold front by Monday afternoon. Expect some locally heavy rains as the storms feast on the hot humid air.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 69
Monday – Hot, humid with an afternoon thunderstorm, High 92, Low 70

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 93, Low 70
Monday – Mixed clouds and sun with scattered thunderstorms. High 93, Low 75

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and humid High 93, Low 72
Monday – Partly sunny and humid; a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 93, Low 76

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, mostly sunny High 91, Low 69
Monday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny High 91, Low 73

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy Fog in the morning. Partly cloudy, High 90, Low 71
Monday – Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 91, Low 74

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 91, Low 69
Monday – Partly cloudy with chance of storms, High 91, Low 73

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 91, Low 67
Monday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 91, Low 72

It’s clearing out pretty well for the afternoon in Florence. It looks like the weekend will be good for outdoor activities.

Boulder, Colorado

It’s Friday, bit I still have this forecast for Boulder to shoulder.

At 1120AM, MT, Boulder was reporting a temperature of 86 degrees with partly cloudy skies. There were air quality alerts in the mountains and front range, with red flag warnings along the Kansas and Wyoming borders. Meanwhile, there were a couple of showers beginning to bubble up, with heavier activity to the east of Steamboat Springs. The showers and storms today are a product of an upper level trough sweeping through the northern US.
The wave is fairly weak at the upper levels, however given the heat and humidity in the plain, there will be plenty of juice for organization. The low developing in the lee of the Rockies will help reengage dry air in the Boulder area, with a northwesterly flow also likely to exasperate the smoke in the air. At least there should be some cooler temperatures tomorrow, but the sun will let things heat up again on Sunday.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy and hazy, High 85, Low 62
Sunday – Mostly sunny but hazy, High 92, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 88, Low 62
Sunday – Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High 94, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Nice with plenty of sunshine; wildfire smoke will cause the sky to be hazy High 87, Low 66
Sunday – Partly sunny High 92, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of smoke. Sunny, High 88, Low 61
Sunday – Sunny, High 93, Low 59

WB: Mostly sunny. Areas of smoke. High 84, Low 61
Sunday – Sunny, High 91, Low 61

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with areas of smoke, High 88, Low 60
Sunday – Sunny, High 93, Low 59

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 89, Low 65
Sunday – Clear throughout the day. High 94, Low 64

Take a look at the satellite imagery, and just how milky the image is, even in areas without cloud cover. Another smoky summer season.

Burlington, Vermont to Cleveland, Tennessee

This is sort of an Appalachian Trail route, but it will take only two days to cover the ground, rather than the months it takes to hike. Thanks, interstate highways! The two towns are 1060 miles apart, and our modern travel trappings will allow for a pace of 64.4mph, and no deer ticks.

DAY ONE (Tuesday)

Burlington, Vermont

All of the wet weather in the country is just skirting the East Coast. Sure, there are a few drips and drabs in other places, but there is a bona fide low moving up the Eastern Seaboard with rain and everything. To give an idea with how little of the country this rain is coming to, I will tell you that even on our route, we will see none of it. It will be nice and cool, though, for August. As the low slides into northern New England, we will be in upstate New York, and it may be a bit cloudy through Kingston, but then, south past the New York metro, into New Jersey and through Pennsylvania, we will be in great shape. The route takes through but a sliver of Maryland, but that’s the sliver we will stop in. Williamsport, right on the West Virginia border.

DAY TWO (Friday)
A trough moving in through the center of the country threatens to upset the balance of things (wherein the balance was no rain everywhere). Enough moisture will be drawn north out of the Gulf that showers and thunderstorms will dot the skies in Alabama and Georgia by the end of the day on Friday, and there may still be a rogue storm even in eastern Tennessee. It’s not extremely likely, and the threat would be confined to points south of Knoxville. It’s nicer than normal in the south. Enjoy it!

Cleveland, Tennessee

Cleveland, Tennessee

Cleveland is just northeast of Chattanooga, in the well populated stretch of eastern Tennessee that bumps up against North Carolina and Virginia. My goodness, does Tennessee border a lot of states.

At 105ET, thunderstorms were popping up along I-75, just to the west of Cleveland, though in Chattanooga, thunder and a temperature of 71 degrees with overcast skies. Temperatures across the region where clouds were in place were generally in the low 70s, while sunnier parts of north Georgia had risen to the 80s. Low pressured lingering off the Carolina coast was helping to inspire some extra rainfall at the moment, but will eventually work to pull dry air south.
A dry day is anticipated tomorrow thanks to the machinations on the East Coast, but a sarp trough moving into the center of the country is expected to draw on moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. There won’t be much organization, and it won’t reach the Cleveland area, but by late in the day, expect an increase in clouds and humidity.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 66
Friday – Increasing clouds, High 88, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny along with a few clouds. A stray afternoon thunderstorm is possible. High 86, Low 64
Friday – Overcast. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 86, Low 65

AW: Tomorrow – Sun and clouds with a passing shower in the afternoon High 86, Low 65
Friday – Mostly cloudy with widely separated thunderstorms High 68, Low 67

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 85, Low 63
Friday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, High 86, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 85, Low 64
Friday – Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 85, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 65
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 86, Low 65

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 86, Low 61
Friday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 86, Low 65

It’s probably going to be a bit warm and sticky, but really for early August this is pretty comfortable. See the radar, with rain in Chattanooga, below.