from Victoria-Weather
While this is indeed a map that exists, it is well into the future, and even then, only a “slight” Could there be some spots of heavy snow, particularly in the peaks on the western side of this outlook area? Sure. Am I particularly concerned for Omaha, Bismarck or the Twin Cities? I am not.
Victoria-Weather is forecasting for Victoria, Texas, and one might wonder if we have a home field advantage. I can assure you that we do not. Victoria-Weather is named after my home town of Victoria, Minnesota. Slightly different climates.
At 1051AM, CT, Victoria was reporting a temperature of 64 degrees with clear skies and a brisk northerly wind. This will surely keep temperatures cooler for the Gulf Coast this morning. the wind is based on a surface flow, however, and high pressure is blanketing the middle of the country. Flow aloft is fairly stagnant, and cold air will not be actively imported as winds start to subside this afternoon.
A weak, quick hitting trough is developing in the lee of the Rockies, and will be moving northeast towards the Upper Midwest. The flow in the region will not alter much, thanks to sluggish jet flow in the region, but Victoria may see a little bit of a rise in humidity as the Gulf opens to the feature to the north.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 49
Wednesday – Warner, a bit stuffier, High 81, Low 56
TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 77, Low 45
Wednesday – Mainly sunny. High 85, Low 53
AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with plenty of sunshine High 77, Low 41
Wednesday – Plenty of sunshine; breezy in the afternoon High 84, Low 49
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 46
Wednesday – Sunny, High 82, Low 53
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73, low 48
Wednesday – Sunny, High 82, Low 55
WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 45
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 53
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 45
Wednesday – Sunny, High 83, Low 53
Those are some chilly morning lows for as far souh as Victoria is. The clouds over the Gulf certainly depict the vigorous off shore flow that is being observed. The rippling of the clouds parallel the coast, with nothing on land tells the story.
It had been a minute since we had composed a forecast before we put one together for Evansville. I mused that I hoped we remembered how to do it. Our forecast was fine, but it was difficult to improve on the near perfection of The Weather Channel and Accuweather. They had the same forecast, which paid dividends, because aside from the high temperature being 1 degree too cool on Saturday, the forecast was spot on. Granted, accuracy should be at its best with sunny weather forecasts like we saw in southern Indiana, the forecasts were nevertheless commendable.
Actuals: Saturday – High 64, Low 45
Sunday – High 67, Low 40
Grade: A – C
Racine is nestled between Chicago and Milwaukee as part of the well populated stretch of lakeshore around Lake Michigan. It’s going to be a rainy couple of days for a lot of people. Is Racine going to be one of those locales?
At 1153PM, CT, Racine was reporting a temperature of 56 degrees with overcast skies. There was a smattering of rain showers moving west to east through northern Illinois, with some showers spilling north into Wisconsin. The coverage of rain in southern Wisconsin will only increase, as the rain is associated with a long, ranging warm front extended from a deepening system in the Plains.
Racine will exist in the warm sector for a brief time after the warm front passes through Thursday evening, and before the cold front arrives around midday on Friday. The front will potentially bring a bit of severe weather to Chicagoland, and I wouldn’t rule it out in Racine, either. The cold front will be gusty, and the tight rotation of the nearby low pressure could lead to some short lived funnels in the area. The primary concern, ultimately, will be rain, which will accumulate to several inches over the course of the storm, and depending on the intensity of thunderstorms.
Tomorrow – Rain early, ending late, High 57, Low 54
Friday – Rain and some thunder in the afternoon. Breezy, High 58, Low 52
TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast with showers at times. High 58, Low 54
Friday – Windy with rain likely. Potential for heavy rainfall. High 58, Low 54
AW: Tomorrow – Breezy with rain; the rain is much needed due to drought conditions High 58, Low 55
Friday – Windy with periods of rain, some heavy, and a thunderstorm; the combination of fallen leaves and rainfall can lead to slick roads High 59, Low 53
NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely, mainly after 3pm. Cloudy, High 58, Low 52
Friday – Showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm High 60, Low 54
WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. Chance of light rain showers in the morning, then light rain showers likely in the afternoon. High 56, Low 52
Friday – Breezy. Light showers likely in the morning then rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 55, Low 53
WN: Tomorrow – Windy with rain showers likely, High 58, Low 53
Friday – Windy with rain showers and scattered storms, High 59, Low 54
CLI: Tomorrow – Drizzle, High 57, Low 52
Friday – Drizzle, High 57, Low 52
Clime is really underselling this one, aren’t they? You can tell Racine is in for a grimy couple of days, with temperatures stuck in the 50s for 48+ hours. Here is the evening’s radar picture.
During the most recent forecast, I mentioned a couple of features headed for the headlines this week. First, a system moving through the northern Plains, which incidentally may bring about enough cold air to bring snow as far east as the Nebraska Panhandle. Second is the remnants of Tropical Storm Lidia, and we all know how soggy tropical features can be. That northern feature might even have more rain, at least over the US.
UPDATE: Great news! The threat for snow is looking less than we expected earlier. Still going to be plenty up in the mountains.
It hasn’t been nearly as cloudy as some had in the forecast for Bowling Green. Only the big airports are reporting clouds, and only because their vertical observations get higher. It’s still quite clear that all the warm air is in the Plains. It’s only in the 60s.
Hey, weren’t we just forecasting in Indiana the other day? It will be interesting to see what can change in just a couple of days.
At 1053PM, CT, Bowling Green was reporting a temperature of 47 degrees with clear skies. The cooler regime that has embraced the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley in the wake of Philippe on the east coast has remained in place over Kentucky, an the clear nights will only serve to make things even chillier. Two features bear watching that will bring an end to the crisp weather.
The first is a strong fall system emerging in the High Plains, and the second is crossing Mexico. Hurricane Lidia, a Pacific storm will move through the northern Gulf towards the Florida Panhandle over the next 24 hours. The warm front associated with the High Plains system will drive warm air northward through Kentucky, but the remnants of Lidia will intercept any Gulf moisture before it reaches Bowling Green.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 74, Low 43
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 79, Low 55
TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast. High 74, Low 43
Thursday – Sunny skies. High 82, Low 53
AW: Tomorrow – Nice with partial sunshine High 77, Low 44
Thursday – Partly sunny and warm High 82, Low 53
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 76, Low 44
Thursday – Sunny, High 79, Low 53
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 72, Low 44
Thursday – Sunny, High 79, Low 53
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 46
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 54
FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 75, Low 44
Thursday – Sunny, High 82, Low 56
Clouds are encroaching from the south, but aren’t to Bowling Green quite yet.
It’s a little too soggy this weekend in New England, what with Philippe and existing rain showers in the area, but the cold, dry air behind the system that Philippe is merging into is going to be perfect for accelerating the change in colors. If you get some clear air, it will be perfect for leaf peeping.
Hey, look, it’s a forecast! After a lengthy time away from the site forecasts, let’s see if we still remember how to do this.
At 1154AM, CT, Evansville was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 72 degrees. The region was in some clear, dry air in the wake of a rainy cold front that moved through yesterday afternoon. Low pressure continued to spiral over Michigan, and it will be pressed northward as Tropical Storm Philippe heads towards New England. The thermal trough will swing south today and overnight, with tomorrow morning landing as the chilliest morning of the season, with Sunday being even chillier.
Philippe will merge with the Great Lakes low and start to occlude and retrograde. The persistent northwest winds will keep temperatures down, and the moisture continuing to wrap between the two features and slowly into Indiana. This will lead to some overcast throughout the weekend, and temperatures closer to autumnal.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 63, Low 44
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 64, Low 42
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 63, Low 45
Sunday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 66, Low 41
AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and cooler High 63, Low 45
Sunday – Plenty of sunshine High 67, Low 40
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 62, Low 44
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 65, Low 40
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 60, Low 45
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 64, Low 44
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 62, Low 44
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 66, Low 40
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 63, Low 45
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 66, Low 43
This is what I believe many in the US would call football weather. There is a nice swath of sunny skies over southern Indiana today.
This image is from the NWS office in Hanford, in the central Valley of California. You thought we only gave percent chances for rainfall, huh? It’s pretty dry in California, so I guess meteorologists there just need to make use of the Stats classes we all took in college.