9:39PM: This is a pretty incredible look at the before and after of Helene, from space. (First seen at NPR)
Forecaster of the Month: September
September is going to go down as one of the most historic months in American history, starting basically with the heat that has gripped much of the country. It was the warmest September on record for many locations. But memories will be leant to Hurricane Helene, and the victims throughout the southern Appalachians who saw their lives and livelihoods washed away.
The day to day weather doesn’t always seem extraordinary, but it does affect our every day life even outside of the headlines. It’s important to get it right everywhere, and the outlet that could claim that tile in September was The Weather Channel, who seriously clobbered the rest of the competition, securing the win in 3 out of the 7 forecasts.
| Outlet | Forecast Wins (year) |
| The Weather Channel | 14.15 |
| Victoria-Weather | 8.48 |
| WeatherNation | 5.83 |
| Accuweather | 4.16 |
| Clime | 3.5 |
| National Weather Service | 3.32 |
| Weatherbug | 2.33 |
Forecasts CAN be too warm
It’s important to remember as we finally seem to be departing the summer, that sometimes, temperatures end up colder than we expect. That was the case in Glens Falls towards the end of September. Temperatures were a few degrees colder than every outlet’s high temperature forecast on the 24th and 25th, respectively, and the low was on the cold end of the low temperature forecasts as well. This is something to remember as we approach fall. It’s not summer all the time. The Weather Channel had the top forecast for the day.
Actuals: September 24th, High 68, Low 43
September 25th, .42″ of rain, High 58, Low 51
Grade: B-C
Updates 10/3
12:43AM I should note that at this time, not only are there no storm warnings, but there are also no flood warnings. Right now, every terrible headline that comes out of western North Carolina comes with the small positive notion that we are hearing them because another corner of the state is reconnecting with the outside world. Not everywhere is back online yet, though, so there are still more days ahead with more bad news to come.
Idaho Falls, Idaho
So much of the Idaho population center lies in the Snake River Valley, creating a U shape through southern Idaho. Idaho Falls is in the eastern part of the state, and I cannot confirm whether or not there are indeed snakes there.
At 653PM, MT, Idaho Falls was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with clear skies. It’s been dry in the northern Rockies, and there are red flag warnings out for the region. Conversely, low pressure moving through British Columbia is going to bring enough cold air southward that there are freeze advisories for northern Idaho. This is indicative of the overnight cooldown expected in Idaho Falls tonight.
By Tuesday the next system will be moving into the Gulf of Alaska, and drawing warm air back northward. There may be a few clouds on Monday with the cooler air intruding, but it should clear out and warm right back up on Tuesday, the beginning of an uneven week.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, chilly in the morning, High 64, Low 40
Tuesday – Sunny and warmer by afternoon, frost in the morning, High 71. Low 31
TWC: Tomorrow – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon HIgh 66, Low 39
Tuesday – Mainly sunny. High 73, Low 32
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and cooler HIgh 66, Low 41
Tuesday – Partly sunny and nice High 72, Low 33
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 64, Low 43
Tuesday – Sunny, High 70, Low 38
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 62, Low 46
Tuesday – Sunny, warmer, High 68, Low 37
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 63, Low 45
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 48
CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 39
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 74, Low 45
I’ve checked. No typos here, this forecast just looks to be all over the map. Satellite would suggest that this shouldn’t be so complicated.
Lansing, Michigan
On Friday, my mind naturally goes to college football, and I know that the Michigan State Spartans are squaring off against Ohio State tonight. Will travel between the two towns be challenging after the game?
At 1053PM, ET, Lansing was reporting cloudy skies and a temperature of 64 degrees. The clouds over Lansing, and the smattering of light showers in the area were remnants of Helene, which is continuing to unravel in the upper Ohio Valley. The remnants are getting weaker, but are not really expected to move out of the area through any other synoptic forcing.
While clouds and maybe some rain will be possible through the night, the disturbance left by Helene will continue to contract in its area of influence over the next 48 hours. The threat for rain in Lansing should be through by tomorrow afternoon, after which point it will be partly cloudy, an increasingly warm once again.
Tomorrow – Overcast, breaking out later in the day, Some early light rain. High 75, Low 62
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 57
TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast (Early rain) High 75, Low 63
Monday – Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon. High 76, Low 57
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a brief shower or two High 76, Low 62
Monday – Pleasant with times of clouds and sun High 73, Low 57
NWS: Tomorrow – 10 percent chance of showers before 8am. Mostly cloudy High 75, Low 63
Monday – Partly sunny, High 75, Low 58
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. 20 percent chance of showers through midday, High 74, Low 65
Monday – Partly sunny, High 72, Low 59
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light rain showers, High 74, Low 63
Monday – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 73, Low 59
CLI: Tomorrow – Overcast, High 75, Low 62
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 58
Differing opinions are seen for the rain, but for our more typically reliable outlets, well, there is more overlap. The rain isn’t showing up as clearly as the overcast from the remnants of Helene.
Coming soon…
Let’s hope, now that manual posts are required, this look ahead can be posted on the various social media outlets.
Idaho Falls, Idaho
Springfield, Illinois
Road Trip from Springfield to Providence, Rhode Island
Binghamton, New York
Portland, Oregon
9/27 Updates
8:14PM: Helene has really made an impact. The good news is that the storm made it onshore in a relatively sparsely populated area. The other good news is that the storm moved quickly, landfalling only yesterday and is now over the Ohio Valley. The bad news is, this very strong storm and it tracked over the southern Appalachians. Undoubtedly, you have heard that Asheville, North Carolina has been cut off by flash floods. Those red and purple rain totals around Tallahassee and central Georgia are much more manageable than when you get up towards the terrain of the Piedmont.
Rain will continue for another couple of days, growing weaker over the Lower Ohio Valley, but in another bit of good news, recovery can start now for those affected.
9/25 Updates
Now with the end of Dlvr.it’s free program for publishing posts on social media (which got us through about 10 years, honestly), I’m looking to make update posts in a more easily transferred format, manually. So this is it! When I don’t have other posts to publish, I’ll amalgamate all of the daily updates into one post, such as this one, and it can be a one stop shop for recaps when I have them. Stop by the site regularly!
12:46AM: There was a severe thunderstorm watch in the evening for southeastern Oklahoma, and storms are mostly winding down. There is still one cell that is severe and crossing the Red River for Sherman. What I’m particularly taken with is how much lightning there still is in the Sooner State as we approach 1AM.
Glens Falls, New York
We’re going to return to Upstate New York for our forecast today. It’s been a little bit active, and even though we are looking at New York, we would still be advised to take a look at the Tropics.
At 353PM, ET, Glens Falls was reporting a temperature of 66 degrees with overcast skies. Low pressure in the Gulf Stream and low pressure moving into the Great Lakes were connected by an undulating boundary running through the Mid-Atlantic. A smattering of rain showers was moving along the northern periphery of the boundary, and was likely to clip Glens Falls as this afternoon continues.
A narrow ridge will build into the region tomorrow as the boundary stretching between the two systems will break down. While Tuesday will be dry, the low will organize in the Great Lakes during that same stretch. Though the system will begin occluding fairly quickly before it arrives, a healthy shot of rain is expected starting on Wednesday morning. Because the feature will be breaking down on Wednesday, expect difficulties in clearing it out. Heavy rain is possible Wednesday morning, with more scattered and lighter rain through the afternoon and evening.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, morning haze, High 71, Low 51
Wednesday – Rain arrives early, lingering through the day, High 62, Low 51
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies High 70, Low 45
Wednesday – Cloudy with showers High 62, Low 49
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 70, Low 44
Wednesday – Cloudy with a couple of showers High 63, Low 48
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 71, Low 49,
Wednesday – A chance of showers, mainly after 8am. Cloudy, High 64, Low 52
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 53
Wednesday – Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain, High 62, Low 51
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 71, Low 49
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 63, Low 53
CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 70, Low 52
Wednesday – Light rain showers, High 65, Low 47
Let’s take a look at the local take on the situation, from ABC 10 in Albany.