Portland, Oregon

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Our first forecast of the workweek, and perhaps the last of October (I don’t know that, just how slowly I operate) takes us to the teeth of a bomb cyclone/atmospheric river, and a whole lot of climate buzzwords.

At 553AM, PT, Portland was reporting a temperature of 52 degrees with light rain. The Portland metropolitan area was still getting soaked, The rainfall in the Pacific Northwest is ongoing west of the Cascades, but at a lessened rate than it has over the last few days. The strong system in the Gulf of Alaska has moved towards the Panhandle near Sitka and Juneau, which has decreased the westerly flow, but the low level moisture is still available, and the flow is enough that the Cascades will still see steady precipitation with more intermittent rain in Portland.
While all this is good news, it will take until the middle of the day on Wednesday to really wind down, so occasional breezes and rain will be a fixture today and through the beginning of tomorrow. Wednesday afternoon will be the nicest stretch of the forecast, as a secondary, but weaker reinforcing wave is expected to emerge off the Oregon Coast, arriving overnight Wednesday to Thursday. This feature will take a direct shot at the Olympic Peninsula, but Portland will see more rain and wind, especially in the evening on Thursday as the next round slides ashore. This second round will bring a warmer ridge northward, and some warming should be anticipated late.
Tomorrow – Rain in the morning, a bit of clearing late, High 60, Low 50
Thursday – Rain, maybe a rumble of thunder in the evening, High 65,Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with occasional light rain in the afternoon. High 57, Low 51
Thursday – Rain showers in the morning will evolve into a more steady rain in the afternoon High 65, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – A thick cloud cover with a little rain High 58, Low 51
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers HIgh 67, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely before 2pm, then rain likely after 2pm. Cloudy, High 58, Low 50
Thursday – Rain. High 64, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Showers likely until afternoon, then rain likely late in the afternoon, High 55, Low 50
Thursday – Rain, High 64, Low 52

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light showers likely, High 58, Low 50
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with rain, High 64, Low 53

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain throughout the day. High 60, Low 48
Thursday – Light rain throughout the day. High 62, Low 57

We are all over the place in what we expect will happen in Portland over the next couple of days. I’m very interested in seeing how it all plays out.

All hail our robot overlords

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When we forecast for Ogden last weekend, I noted specifically that I thought something broke at Forecast.io. Little did I know, it was the rest of us that had the issues. While many of us expected the large system moving into town to bring rain, potentially mountain snow and colder temperatures, Forecast.io didn’t go nearly as cold. Neither did Ogden, as it turned out, and FIO nailed the first three verifying times. Eventually, temperatures fell off quicker than Forecast.io expected, but by that point, they had a commanding lead in the forecast chase.
Actuals: Sunday, High 74, Low 43
Monday – .38 inches of rain, High 63, Low 43

Grade: B-D

Fox releasing a weather app

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There will soon be another major player in the weather market. On Monday, Fox is releasing a new streaming weather service and app. They have a weather based website primed to launch as well, but it remains unclear if that will be a traditional site, or if it will host the streaming service.

Some of the features, like the long range forecasts, are silly, and are just ways to try to drive users to the site. The 3d graphics that are promised are a selling point, and the use of local meteorologists across the country is innovative and should bring about some local knowledge that drives effective forecasting.

The elephant in the room, as with all things these days, and particularly when Fox comes up, is politics. Fox News is notoriously conservative in it’s news choices, and that has filtered down into their other media resources. Fox Sports, when they provide analysis, skews conservative as well (If you don’t believe me, listen to Clay Travis just once), and there is a thought that Fox Weather might intend the same.

I think, though, there is space in the market for an explicitly conservative weather outlet, and given the format of the app and stream, it will likely mitigate the most antediluvian tendencies. While climate change is a fairly well grounded scientific principle, it is a political issue and is not well accepted by those with conservative political leanings. While some meteorologists share these stances, they have evolved into questioning the potential impact and appropriate course of action, rather than the veracity of global warming. Additionally, with the network leaning on local weather persons, who may not be directly employed by Fox, there is probably less imperative to follow the corporate mantra.

I think the compromise that we will see at Fox Weather is that, instead of talking about climate change and mankind’s role in the process, and needing to stake a position that may or may not be different than Fox News’ position, the topic will be unaddressed. Instead, Fox Weather, to claim that conservative weather client, will focus only on shorter term forecasts and breaking weather news.

With The Weather Channel leaning heavily into climate change coverage and activism, some people in tornado alley may have drifted away. Having a resource from a brand name they trust providing the important information, they may be more keen to tune in at or ahead of time. As long as the Fox Weather personnel opt for avoidance of the climate change topic rather than being pressured into giving misinformation, I think Fox Weather has a chance to be a benefit to the public safety of our country.

If the Fox Weather site becomes usable like other weather sites we use, there is a very good chance we will see it on these pages in the future. I will also make sure to get the app and will post online any thoughts that come to mind.

A season for change

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Since we forecast for Sioux Falls, South Dakota has seen two separate large areas of low pressure have moved through the northern Rockies and the northern Plains. The second round brought snow to the central part of the state, and the first came just 2 hours after our forecast period ended, along with blustery winds and thunderstorms. It wasn’t enough to put the forecast verification too far off kilter, and it sure has shifted the season. The Weather Channel earned the victory.
Actuals: October 11th, High 73, Low 41
October 12th, High 70, Low 43

Grade: A-B

Coming Soon…

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It was one of the warmest starts to autumn that we’ve Ever experience. With Halloween around the corner, we might see a bit of a change. If nothing else, the weather might get a little spoooooooky. (Two Portlands in one week is spooky, right?)

Portland, Oregon

Road Trip from Portland to Trenton, New Jersey

Sherman, Texas

Roanoke, Virginia
Road Trip from Sherman to Roanoke

Portland, Maine

Weirton, West Virginia

Springfield, Illinois to Ogden, Utah

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Every once in a while, I find myself surprised by the map, and today is one of those times. Ogden is nearly due west of Springfield, and will take a long two days to get to. The mileage is 1,304, and we will take care of 542 of those miles at about 67.7mph on Monday, with the real work coming on Tuesday. If you consider road tripping to be work, of course.

DAY ONE (Monday)

Springfield, Illinois

Did someone say “road trip weather”? No? That’s not something a normal person says? Well, in that case, I will say it. It’s good road trip weather in the middle of the country, and that will continue tomorrow, with high pressure and temperatures that aren’t too hot, aren’t too cold. We’ll navigate through Missouri and into Nebraska, making it past Lincoln to Shelton for our one overnight of the trip.

DAY TWO (Tuesday)
It’s always nice when Day Two is a Tuesday, because it’s significantly less confusing. OK, maybe only for my simple brain. The rest of the drive through Nebraska is going to be serene, but a short waved trough moving through the Rockies will make things significantly more interesting. Rain in the low elevation and snow at higher spots will be seen from Cheyenne westward. We’ll start to emerge from the wet and snow from Rock Springs on westward, and sunshine will return by the time we hit Ogden. Or at least, it would if we arrived when the sun was still up.

Ogden, Utah

Ogden, Utah

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I consider myself a geography aficionado. It’s something I am good at, but frankly, I constantly confuse Ogden and Provo. Ogden, if you were curious, is north of Salt Lake City.

At 653PM, MT, Ogden was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees with clear skies. There really weren’t many clouds anywhere across the western United States as residents try to reclaim some autumn after an early shot of snow last weekend.
A fast moving upper level low will rotate through the central Pacific Coast towards Utah, bringing about some clouds to the region, with high elevation snow becoming likely again. Precipitation will arrive on Monday morning, and down by the Lake, Ogden will see only rain. There should be some improvement after sunset, but only at the end of a rainy afternoon.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 41
Monday – Rain through the daylight hours. High 57, Low 42

TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds, High 70, Low 42
Monday – Cloudy with rain developing later in the day. High 57, Low 44

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 69, low 40
Monday – Cooler with clouds and breaks of sun; breezy in the morning with a thunderstorm in spots followed by afternoon showers High 58, Low 41

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 40
Monday – Rain, mainly after 1pm High 56, Low 42

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy, High 67, Low 41
Monday – Breezy. Partly sunny with a slight chance of rain in the morning, then cloudy with rain in the afternoon. High 56, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 42
Monday – Mostly cloudy with light rain, High 56, Low 50

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 74, Low 43
Monday – Rain until night, starting again in the afternoon, high 63, Low 49

I’m not sure what broker at Forecast.io, but they sure have different forecasts. Forecast lows are all non-standard for Monday, except Weather Nation who don’t have hourly forecasts that deep into the night. The satellite is pretty empty

Autumnal feel in LA

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I’m not sure how Californians relate to the change in seasons like we do east of the Rockies, but if they do identify with the seasons, then the air in Los Angeles last weekend was positively fall like. Temperatures were in the 70s in the afternoon, with 50s overnight. If there were deciduous trees in LA, I would think to do some leaf peeping. One thing to take a look at in Los Angeles, though, is the forecast you might get from Weatherbug. They were nearly perfect for a good weather weekend forecast. The gold standard, truly.
Actuals: Saturday, High 71, Low 56
Sunday, High 78, Low 55

Grade: A-C

Dothan stays dry, gets cool

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For the second time in the day, we had a forecast where many outlets called for rain, and I couldn’t figure out why. In Cleveland, there was a little bit of rain, just as the forecast period started, but in Dothan, the rain was indeed long out of town. The cool air behind the rain was there too, with temperatures dipping a little bit below where V-W had forecast, which opened some daylight, and another outlet who forecast a dry period in Dothan, Forecast.io, ended up securing victory.
Actuals: Friday, High 86, Low 67
Saturday – High 85, Low 63

Grade: A-C

Los Angeles, California to Sioux Falls, South Dakota

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We are destined for a three day trek across the western US for our forecast today. This route includes forays along roads that we don’t often see, especially in Wyoming and South Dakota, so that is kind of fun. Also, the idea of an Angelino in South Dakota makes me chuckle. The mileage between the two towns is 1677 miles, and our travels along several highways with 80mph speed limits will allow for a pace of nearly 70mph overall, and 559 miles of ground covered every day. Pretty sweet for a long trip.

DAY ONE (Tuesday)

Los Angeles, California

I’m not sure there is an actual location where you can take a picture of downtown Los Angeles with Mount Baldy looming in the background like this, but it’s what most pictures of downtown LA look like, so there must be something. The drive through California into the Lake Havasu area, where we will really start to turn to the north. A massive storm system is moving into the middle of the country and will bring more severe weather to the Plains, but also, significantly, will bring some snow to the Wasatch as we drive just to the east of them on I-15. We’ll stop in Holden, Utah, watching the peaks whiten overnight. Kind of like this picture of Mount Baldy.

DAY TWO (Wednesday)
The strong storm will barrel its way out of our route by the time we get moving on Wednesday, but bear in mind that this will be the first winter storm of the season, so even though we are on the interstates, the roads in the passes may still be a little slick. Nothing fresh will be falling through northern Utah or across the vast expanse of Wyoming that we will cover. We will end the day in the paper town of Savageton, which is about 2/3 of the way from Casper to Gillette.

DAY THREE (Thursday)
Moving through the Black Hills should be a bit easier than the Rockies and Wasatch were. They are lower, and probably won’t see as much snow, especially at the level I-90 passes through the region. Then, after Rapid City, South Dakota will feature boundless fields of pastureland, and a heck of a lot of sunshine and, most importantly, a speed limit of 80mph.

Sioux Falls, South Dakota