Cool and wet in…. the Desert Southwest?

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Everything being relative, of course, there was a rare sight on the CPC page. The Desert Southwest, particularly Arizona and fire ravaged New Mexico are expected to see below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation next week. This qualifies as good news, if it dents the drought and doesn’t fully inundate the region.

A combination of factors will lead to this tandem of potential results. First, the monsoon is expected to get a bit more active this week, producing thunderstorms across the southern Rockies between Arizona and New Mexico. Tropical Storm Celia is spinning off the coast of Mexico. It poses no threat to land, but will generate mid level moisture accessible by the air mass over the Land of Enchantment.

Second, an area of low pressure moving through the Northern US is going to leave a stationary front across the Plains, which is going to connect with the dry line and monsoonal flow in New Mexico and Arizona. Robust shower and thunderstorm activity is anticipated throughout much of the week.

Lightning is a threat to fire prone parts of the landscape, and dust will be a concern. Any heavy rain, especially in the undulating terrain could lead to flash floods. Despite these individual perils, it seems like the rain and the cooler temperatures are good things.

Grand Forks dust up

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

One thing that I have come to notice about the strong area of low pressure that shot north through the Plains and into Canada is that the storm activity has been much higher than anticipated. Oh, and the heat also. It’s been warm! It was the storms that were the story in Grand Forks, however. They were not at all anticipated in any of the forecasts from the various outlets, though everyone thought the passing warm front would introduce some clouds on Saturday. The biggest surprise was that after the storms, albeit isolated, a lot of dust was kicked up in Grand Forks. The afternoon saw 2 mile visibilities thanks to the 35-40mph wind associated with the system (remember how I said it’s always windy there?), which prevented temperatures from getting out of the lower 80s, and busting forecasts across the board. It was a grimy, miserable way to spend the first day of Father’s Day weekend. Accuweather had a narrow victory, hitting on almost everything, but missing on the rain and the Saturday high.
Actuals: Friday, High 82, Low 54
Saturday – Storms reported, not measured, High 83, Low 62

Grade: C-D

Saginaw, Michigan to Dubuque, Iowa

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

We’re off on… what’s this, a single day road trip? Well, this journey will take the better part of the day, covering 469 miles of pure Midwest. The pace in the end will be 62.3mph, slowed, as you might expect, by the city of Chicago.

Saginaw, Michigan

Man, it is hot in the Upper Midwest, and some of that heat is going to spread eastward. And don’t even get me started on the humidity. Air conditioners will be needed, particularly after we get away from the westerly flow off of Lake Michigan. Chicago westward through Illinois and into Deubuque will be blazing hot. The moisture is currently penned west of the Mississippi and north into Wisconsin, and there isn’t really a great reason to expect it to get unleashed terribly far from where it is right now. It will probably bleed south and east a bit, precariously close to our route, but all that will mean is an even more uncomfortable walk to the rest rooms at pit stops. Dubuque is going to be extremely sweaty tomorrow afternoon.

Dubuque, Iowa

Dubuque, Iowa

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Happy Father’s Day all you dads out there. This forecast is dedicated specifically to the dad’s of Dubuque.

At 953AM, CT, Dubuque was reporting a temperature of 70 degrees with clear skies. Low pressure in the northern High Plains was producing brisk southerly winds across the Upper Midwest. Temperatures were on the rise in western Iowa, though Dubuque was still relatively comfortable. High pressure over the Great Lakes is strong enough that the low pressure in the Plains is going to be redirected to the north quite efficiently.
While Dubuque is not expected to get as warm as locations to the west and north, but it will still be very hot in Dubuque to start the week. Part of this will be the southerly flow today, but also, the sunny skies through the beginning of the week. A weak cold front will arrive late on Tuesday that will signal a slight cool down, but isn’t expected to carry much precipitation with it.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 90, Low 63
Tuesday – Sunny, increasing clouds High 95, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 95, Low 65
Tuesday – Mostly sunny skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 97, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, breezy and hot; caution advised if doing strenuous activities outside High 94, Low 66
Tuesday – The temperature near the record of 100 and humid; a t-storm around in the p.m.; thunderstorms can bring hail and damaging winds High 98, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 93, Low 65
Tuesday – Sunny and hot High 96, Low 73

WB: Tomorrow – Breezy sunny, High 91, Low 65
Tuesday – Sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 94, Low 73

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 93, Low 65
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 96, Low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid throughout the day. High 91, Low 64
Tuesday – Humid throughout the day. High 95, Low 73

IT’s like there are two Dubuques we are forecasting for, and neither of them are really following model guidance closely. Today and tomorrow are going to be hot and sunny.

Hot and stuffy

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Not only was the weather sweltering in Shreveport this week, but it stayed hot overnight, which is the worst. Morning lows of 80 meant that air conditioners were overworked, and forecasts were off, because every outlet predicted cooler temperatures by a handful of degrees. The high temperatures, mercifully, were on the cool end of our forecasts, but that still meant mid to upper 90s. This forecast combo led to a very tight race, and a three way tie at the top, with Victoria-Weather, Accuweather and Forecast.io elevating slightly above.
Actuals: Wednesday, High 96, Low 78
Thursday – High 97, Low 80

Grade: B

Dangerous heat spreading northward

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

As noted in the forecast for Grand Forks forecast, some oppressive heat is getting ready to surge to the north for Fathers Day and the beginning of next week, It’s already quite hot in the south central US, but after somewhat cool springs, it will be a sudden shot of summer for many in the northern US.

Frequent bouts of severe weather have swept across the region. Strong storms have afflicted every state from South Dakota to Michigan, and even the tier to the south in the last few weeks, indicating for those that didn’t know that the jet stream has lingered over the northern US through much of the spring. The stormy activity and jet’s sag have kept temperatures cool.

Now as we approach the peak sun angle, and the warmth of June, the jet is weakening and starting to wobble. A sharp trough in the Pacific Northwest is going to be a factor in lee troughing in the High Plains, but the troughing will be well ahead of the low, giving a lot of runway to the southerly flow and the warm air that follows. Triple digits may reach the Canadian border.

Strong storms are continuing through the eastern Great Lakes after the latest round of severe weather that started earlier this week in Wisconsin and Illinois, but after today’s (enhanced risk) threat of severe storms In New York, Pennsylvania and surrounding areas, the severe threat peters out. A wonderful side effect of the weaker jet is a lower likelihood of strong storms, and this bout of severe weather looks to be the last for at least a few days.

Grand Forks, North Dakota

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It’s summer in North Dakota, which means that it will probably be surprising to many how hot it actually gets up there. No matter the temperature, it’s always windy. Always, always.

At 953AM, CT, Grand Forks was reporting a temperature of 67 degrees and fair skies. Winds were howling out of the west at 20kt, with gusts to 31kt. Low pressure moving into Hudson Bay was accelerating winds across the flatlands of North Dakota, but there should be some respite as the system presses northeast towards northern Quebec.
High pressure will build across the area, providing a blissfully calm day on Friday to end the week. A sharp trough over the Pacific Northwest will accelerate some lee troughing in the northern High Plains, and some ridge riding cloud will pass overhead with a warm front early on Saturday. Heat will build as low pressure spreads into Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and accelerates southerly flow through the Plains.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 85, Low 52
Saturday – Morning clouds, then hot and humid High 92, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny. High 85, Low 54
Saturday – Partly cloudy skies with gusty winds.  High 91, low 63

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun High 84, Low 54
Saturday – Partly sunny, windy and hot High 90, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 83, Low 55
Saturday – Mostly sunny and hot, High 90, Low 61

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 55
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Windy. High 91, Low 64

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 83, Low 55
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 59

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 80, Low 58
Saturday – Windy overnight and in the evening. High 86, Low 60

I’m definitely going warmer. The heat will continue to build, and a run at triple digits is possible for Father’s Day. The trends are going that way, and I am getting ahead of the trend. Satellite shows a wisp of clouds on the back side of the low headed through Canada, and it is windy at the surface. Always windy.

A cool spot

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

On back to back verifications, we’ve had forecasts that overestimated forecast highs. Because of wind off San Pablo Bay, Napa was colder than forecasts expected earlier this week, and now in Johnstown, the forecast highs were also on the lower side. This time thanks to topography and clouds that settled into the valleys surrounding the Alleghenies. The difference between Johnstown and Napa is that two outlets embraced this possibility. Weatherbug took another victory, but Victoria-Weather wasn’t far behind.
Actuals: Friday, High 66, Low 52
Saturday – Rain reported, not measured, High 66, Low 54

Grade B-D

Shreveport, Louisiana

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It’s likely to be hot in Louisiana for our forecast, but at least it’s still only June. Maybe, hopefully, the locals aren’t yet thoroughly exhausted by the heat and humidity.

At 1056AM, CT, it was already 88 degrees in Shreveport, with mostly cloudy skies. Dewpoints in the mid 70s meant it was an absolutely sweltering day in northern Louisiana. It is a late spring pattern without a doubt, with a strong trough near the Canadian border, with a surface ridge becoming established over the southeastern US, allowing it to get to near 100 across much of the region today.
As low pressure moves across the Canadian border, it will induce southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico across Louisiana, increasing the humidity, but also clouds, which may shave a degree or two off of high temperatures, but it will still be plenty hot. There is a slight chance of rain closer to the coast and east of the Mississippi, but not high enough to leave it in the forecast for Shreveport.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 96, Low 75
Thursday – Mostly cloudy, High 97, Low 75

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. Hot and humid. High 97, Low 75
Thursday – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds. Hot and humid High 97, Low 75

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and hot; danger of dehydration and heat stroke if outside for extended periods of time High 96, Low 75
Thursday – Partly sunny and hot; danger of dehydration and heat stroke if outside for extended periods of time High 98, Low 76

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 97, Low 75
Thursday – Sunny and hot, High 99, Low 76

WB: Mostly sunny. Hot, High 95, Low 75
Thursday: Mostly sunny, High 96, Low 76

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 97, Low 75
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 98, Low 76

FIO: Tomorrow – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 98, Low 76
Thursday – Humid throughout the day. High 98, Low 77

Oof. Here’s hoping that there are more clouds than are presently in the forecast, and maybe that will be a little bit of relief. It’s pretty clear out there today, though.