Before I got the map for this trip, I wondered if it would take us through the Twin Cities or the Upper Peninsula, and it turns out, it was neither. It’s going to be a one day trip that takes us 627 miles and right through Chicago. The route through rural Wisconsin, followed by the decidedly not rural Chicago will slow us down to a 61mph pace, but that’s ok because we are getting it all done in one day.
Duluth, Minnesota
I found what might be the least attractive angle of Duluth I could, just because the intent is to leave this fine city for Indiana. We will be between systems as we set forth tomorrow, which makes for a much easier drive. A warm front lifting north ahead of the next feature coming eastward will touch off some late showers or convention (probably convection, frankly) in northern Wisconsin. We will likely steer clear of the wet weather before it initiates, and will only deal with a hot, stuffy traffic jam late in the afternoon in Chicago, before we trundle on in to Kokomo.
All right gang, we’re ready to head to another forecast destination. After a forecast in my current home state, how about one in my former residence?
At 856AM, ET, Kokomo was reporting overcast skies with a temperature of 59 degrees. A deeply occluded system in the Upper Midwest was recentered over Iowa, and the slowly being digested warm front was shifting north through Indiana. The warm sector and copious rain was found in Illinois, but scattered showers were prevalent in the Hoosier State as well. The bundle of low pressure at the end of the occluded boundary will shift from Iowa through Indiana as the day progresses, eventually giving way to a quiet night. The passage of the system today will allow Kokomo a much more pleasant and significantly drier day on Thursday. A broad upper level trough moving into the northwestern US will give rise to a vast, vibrant area of low pressure in the northern High Plains late Thursday into Friday. Some rain showers are possibly as warm air surges northward on Friday morning, but more significant will be the line of thunderstorms expected to light up across northern Indiana on Friday night. The heaviest weather will be north and west of town, but some late, noisy, windy storms are expected before midnight. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 58 Friday – Transient clouds, with chances for a bit of rain early and especially late. Humid. High 86, Low 65
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 85, Low 58 Friday – Windy with a few clouds from time to time. High 88, Low 69
AW: Tomorrow – Warmer with times of sun and clouds High 82, Low 57 Friday – Breezy, very warm and humid with partial sunshine High 88, Low 70
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 56 Friday – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 87, Low 67
WB: Tomorrow – Warmer, Mostly sunny. High 81, Low 59 Friday – Breezy, Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 87, Low 69
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 59 Friday 0 Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms, High 87, Low 56
FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 84, Low 59 Friday – Windy in the morning. High 88, Low 69
Oh my, it seems as though someone at Weathernation slipped on the keyboard when assigning the Friday morning low. It really is 56 on their site. Now I don’t feel so bad going on the low side for my forecast! Look at all this rain coming for southern Indiana. The Ohio is going to be running pretty quickly!
I was shocked that after a long, healthy run, WeatherNation was on the fritz when we forecast for Spokane. I was even more shocked when I went to verify the forecast, and saw that I had left the Weather Service’s forecast off the post. Third, when verifying, I saw that our verification site uses a downtown site — as it should — rather than Spokane International Airport, which is to the west of town. Victoria-Weather would have at least secured a better forecast showing. Instead, it was The Weather Channel who locked up a victory of all sites that showed up. Actuals: Tuesday – High 59, Low 39 Friday – High 61, Low 37
Duluth is one of the most underrated cities out there, in terms of culture, activity and overall beauty. It’s a real treasure on Lake Superior, and frankly feels a little out of place in Minnesota.
At 1155AM, CT, Duluth was reporting overcast skies with a temperature of 52 degrees, and rain. Much of northern Minnesota was caked in rainfall, thoruhg a line of thunderstorms from Moose Lake to St. Cloud was also progressing to the east. A perturbation along a rising warm front was more active, it seemed, than expected, but a warm up to the south and west of Duluth promised another ominous day of convection in Minnesota and the Dakotas. Short range models indicate a clearing later this afternoon, which would provide for a warmer afternoon. Additional strong thunderstorms will emerge in the Red River Valley in the early evening, but whatever comes from those will not reach Duluth until close to midnight. There is a threat for some gusts with these storms, but the real danger is on the other side of the state. The jet is north to south and will direct the parent low that direction. As a result, behind the front will be substantially warmer than a typical May cold front. This will lead to a bit more instability, and clouds are likely Friday, and a post frontal trough could bring a bit more rain on Saturday. Tomorrow – Partly to mostly cloudy. Rain and thunder before dawn, High 73, low 49 Saturday – Partly cloudy, chance of some afternoon rain, especially away from the Lake, High 71, low 50
TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine (Early storms), High 65, low 45 Saturday – Sunshine and some clouds. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible High 69, Low 51
AW: Tomorrow – Mild with clouds followed by a brightening sky (early storms)High 67, low 44 Saturday – Mostly sunny High 69, Low 51
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny (early storms) High 70, Low 49 Saturday – Sunny, High 70, Low 52
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (early storms(, High 70, low 47 Saturday – Sunny. A 20 percent chance of rain showers in the afternoon, High 69, low 52
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, high 70, low 49 Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 51
FIO: Tomorrow – Foggy overnight and in the morning. High 73, low 45 Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 69, Low 54
This is a lot of rain. Good news for fans of Gooseberry Falls, at least.
If you talk to a lot of people in the eastern 2/3rds of the country, they lament the demise of spring. It goes from too cold to too hot in the span of a couple of days, never lingering on the “ideal” number. Of course, what is ideal is personal to every individual. Don’t talk to me until it is at least 80. Some people appreciate cooler numbers, like the highs in the low 60s in San Jose early this week. Too chilly for me. On the “pre-spring” side of things, frankly. The Weather Service and WeatherNation will have no problem saying that they were closest to the mark, spring or not, for our forecast there. Actuals: Monday, High 62, Low 46 Tuesday, High 62, Low 41
We are traveling cross country this weekend, taking a solid 5 days through the northern US on our trek. It’s a 2,633 mile journey between the two cities in question, which we will do at a pace of 67.5mph. We’ll move quicker in the plains and slower through the mountains (Rockies AND Appalachians). All told, the goal will be 540 miles a day, at least through days 1-4.
DAY ONE (Friday)
Spokane, Washington
What a grimy, miserable pattern that is setting up in the northern US. It’s very busy, and it looks to be that way when we set out on Friday. A cold front will move ashore overnight, and light rain with valley fog will dot the northern Rockies through Idaho and about as far as Frenchtown, Montana, which is west of Missoula. If that wasn’t frustrating enough, the massive complex bringing severe storms to the Upper Midwest will rotate moisture and instability from the northeast — the northeast! — which will press up against the Front Range in Montana, bringing isolated showers and storms to a typically drier stretch of Big Sky Country. Isolated storms are possible, and overcast is likely from Missoula, through Butte and Bozeman and indeed on to Billings, where we will reside for the night. There is a silver lining, I guess, finding a large town to stop in for the night in Montana!
DAY TWO (Saturday) OK, so there is some good news. The low in the north central US is lifting almost due north, which is allowing some more settled weather to develop in the middle of the country. This will leave a pretty good day of driving as we finish the drive in Montana, cut across Wyoming and finally enter South Dakota. We’ll navigate our way to Kimball, in the middle of the state, and call it a day.
DAY THREE (Sunday) The good fortune will continue on Sunday, as winds will turn west-northwesterly behind an emerging cold front in the eastern Great Lakes. The big system, now in Canada, will start hustling off to the east, towards Hudson Bay by Sunday morning. A weak little trough will develop in the wake of the front, and could set off some very vague showers and storms in southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin by the late afternoon, but I would expect dry conditions in the Madison area as we end our weekend.
DAY FOUR (Monday) That little post frontal trough is expected to move it about our pace on Saturday. Fortunately, it won’t really get active at any point during the day, but particularly early on as we try to get through Milwaukee and Chicago. Clouds and little bit of light rain will become increasingly likely late in the day as we bound through southern Ohio. We’ll make it to Jackson, which arrives just before the Ohio River and a border with West Virginia.
DAY FIVE (Tuesday) All this worrying, and it looks like it won’t shake out too badly. Precipitation will be well off shore by the time we traverse Appalachia and settle into the Carolina Plain. Off shore breezes will even work to scour out the threat of morning fog that tends not to stay confined to the AM. Of course, it looks active again in the High Plains as we arrive in Rocky Mount, but maybe that is why we went to North Carolina instead of there?
Rocky Mount, North Carolina By Harris Walker – https://www.flickr.com/photos/harriswalkerphotography/3342646285/in/album-72157615074534836/, CC BY 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=61707633
Rocky Mount is on the opposite side of the country from our stops so far this week, and frankly, on the opposite side of North Carolina as where I might have expected.
At 1053AM, ET, Rocky Mount was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 65 degrees. A brisk north wind was helping to keep temperatures from sky rocketing in the clear May conditions. A strengthening ridge over the eastern half of the country promised good conditions for the coast, however a cut off low off the coast was producing off shore rain, and the northerly winds seen in Rocky Mount. The offshore low is going to sink to the south-southwest, following the coast and weakening as upper level support erodes. As the upper trough breaks down, the surface circulation and moisture will retrograde into the Carolina Plains. Expect increasing clouds overnight with haze and fog for the morning tomorrow. The increasing low layer moisture will ultimately lead to scattered showers in the evening and throughout much of the day on Friday. Tomorrow – Cloudy with chances for morning fog and light rain in the PM, high 70, Low 56 Friday – Cloudy, scattered showers, High 76, Low 61
TWC: Tomorrow – A few showers early with overcast skies later in the day. high 68, Low 56 Friday – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning becoming more widespread in the afternoon High 76, Low 59
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a shower in the area, mainly later High 66, low 58 Friday – Cloudy, humid and warmer with showers and thunderstorms High 75, low 60
NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of rain, mainly before 10am, then a slight chance of showers after 1pm. High 69, Low 28 Friday – Showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm.High 75, Low 60
WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. A chance of showers in the afternoon. high 66, Low 58 Friday – Showers likely in the morning, then showers with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 75, Low 60
WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with chance of light rain, High 70, Low 53 Friday – Cloudy with showers and chance of thunderstorms, High 76, low 56
FIO: Tomorrow – Rain until morning, starting again in the evening. High 67, Low 56 Friday – Rain throughout the day. High 75, low 59
Nothing is on shore yet. The north wind cutting out will help with the temperatures on Friday, even if clouds and rain are overhead.
Another stop in our western sojourn as we travel to Spokane. It’s definitely one of our most frequent sites, so hopefully we will have little bit of experience on our side.
At 953AM, PT, Spokane was reporting a temperature of 42 degrees with overcast skies. Frost and freeze advisories were out for many of the cold-prone valleys in the Spokane region last night, but the overcast will prevent a significant cool down again tonight. Upper level low pressure is continuing to generate rain and even some thunderstorms, of which many will flare again this afternoon and evening. The persistence and future distention of the low is leading to diminishing returns for the storms, thought a few days ago, this system was capable of tornadic development. the primary surface feature related to this trough has moved off to the Canadian prairies, but baroclinicity remains in place over the Pacific Northwest. At the base of the trough, another area of circulation is developing off the coast of Crescent City, California, and this should blunt the cool weather a bit, but the tandem lows and upper trough will hold cloudy conditions in place. Stronger and more well organized low pressure will emerge with the support of a reanimated lobe of the upper trough over the Gulf of Alaska. While this system advances the circulation off the coast will break down, and for a brief moment, clearer skies will be possible in Spokane, before Thursday sees a return of precipitation. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 57, Low 35 Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 59, Low 34
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds. High 59, Low 36 Wednesday – Plentiful sunshine. High 61, Low 36
AW: Tomorrow – Cool with variable cloudiness High 58, Low 36 Wednesday – Sunshine mixing with clouds High 60, Low 36
WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. Widespread frost in the morning, High 57, Low 36 Wednesday – Sunny, areas of frost, High 60, Low 36
WN: Tomorrow – SITE IS DOWN
FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. high 60, Low 36 Wednesday – Clear throughout the day. High 63, Low 35
Wow, we haven’t had a website go down in a long time. I’ve looked through multiple browsers and devices but now luck. Chilly in eastern Washington for our forecast, and not a lot of the country can say that this week.
I was in Costa Rica just two months ago. The capital and largest city there is also called San Jose, though I suspect the forecasts to begin this week will be a hair different.
AT 753PM, PT, San Jose was reporting partly cloudy skies with a temperature of 54 degrees. Low pressure in the Pacific Northwest is extending a cold front being reflected at the surface approaching Victorville, while a band of clouds is streamed across the San Jose area. Brisk northwesterly winds give evidence that the boundary is through the region already. Heavy snow is expected in the higher terrain in Northern California as the upper level trough remains entrenched and moisture abundant. As ridging strengthens in the middle of the country, the upper level trough will contort and dig deeper across the Bay area. Precipitation will become less likely, as a deeply distended trough in the northwest has less access to moisture, but unseasonably cold temperatures will be on the order for Silicon Valley, accompanied by blustery winds. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 60, Low 45 Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, High 60, Low 45
TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. High 63, Low 46 Tuesday – Sunshine along with some cloudy intervals. High 63, Low 45
AW: Tomorrow – Cool with times of clouds and sun High 62, Low 47 Tuesday – Partly sunny and cool with a shower in places High 63, Low 45
NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers after 11am. Mostly sunny, High 62, Low 42 Tuesday – A 20 percent chance of showers. High 63, Low 41
WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. High 61, Low 46 Tuesday – Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers, High, 62, Low 46
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 63, Low 43 Tuesday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 63, Low 41
FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 61, Low 47 Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 64, Low 45
A wide array for you to choose form. Who will be right in the end? Satellite shows chaos to the north, and one defined boundary in California.
