March was a heck of a month. May has a long history as one of the most tornado rich months of the year, but this month served as a reminder that tornado season starts as early as March. Deadly Twisters from Mississippi in the south to Illinois in the north were the major headline, but relentless blizzards and continued cold and flooding in the northern and western US were also factors in a wild month. Victoria-Weather tamed that beast, though, and we claimed the top forecasting month for March.
It’s been an active start to the tornado season, with the most deadly storm arriving in Mississippi at the end of March. Nearby Dothan was the target of our forecast on March 22nd, and even then, we were watching storms developing in the southern Plains and speculating on what they mean for Dothan. Fortunately for our forecast outlets, they merely brought some warmer air and morning fog, at least during the forecast period. The swell of Gulf moisture was fairly well anticipated, and was among the factors in this well anticipated severe season. For Dothan, the top forecaster was Weatherbug, an outlet in sore need of a pick-me-up. Good on them. Actuals: March 23rd, High 79, Low 56 March 24th, High 81, Low 59
What was presently evaluated to be an EF-4 tornado swept through western Mississippi on Friday evening, striking Rolling Fork and Silver City. The cell continued and another tornado struck near Winona at an EF-3 rating. In total, these tornadoes were responsible for the deaths of at least 20, most of whom were from Rolling Fork.
The Jackson, Mississippi NWS office is among the best in the country, in my pinion, and they were well ahead of this storm. There was a tornado emergency issued for Rolling Fork and Silver City before the storm struck, with ample advanced warning. Rolling Fork lies well removed from other large population centers, in an impoverished part of Mississippi, and the ability for the message to be disseminated, and the swiftness of emergency response may be factors in the elevated death toll.
Undoubtedly, the structural integrity of many of the building in Rolling Fork, Silver City and Winona were factors, and the strength of the tornadoes themselves absolutely cannot be discounted. This storm, like so many before it, however, underscore the systemic issues that can increase the lethality of a system, and emphasize how important it is to have a plan for severe weather before it is on your doorstep.
With that in mind, there is certainly more rough weather on the horizon as we get deeper into springtime. The SPC is already monitoring Friday the 31st for a significant severe weather outbreak. They highlight a large tract of the country straddling the Mississippi, and I would, at this early stage, be particularly interested to see how the situation evolves around the Bootheel of Missouri.
The storm is going to be reflective of so many that have struck this winter. A deep diving trough will initiate rapid cyclonic development in the southern Plains, lifting north towards the western Great Lakes. Vorticity within the feature will lead to a tornado threat within the northern part of the storm, though strong wind and some hail are going to be an issue as well.
If you are in line for this severe weather, it’s time to have a plan. Even if this storm might leave you unaccosted, with severe weather season coming for the country, it’s a good idea for all of us to start considering what we will do in the event of a life threatening situation.
An important part of the winter cycle in the north is the storage of water in the snowpack that will sustain and help nourish the first buds of spring time. It has been a warm, dry winter in the mid-Atlantic, so the next best thing is rain, like what fell on St. Patrick’s day in Utica. They received over a half an inch of rain, with a mostly inconsequential spot of flurry activity on the Saturday after. Usually the rainy systems with changing precip types are calamitous in the temperature forecast, but perhaps with a bit of the luck of the Irish, forecasts were quite good all around. The National Weather Service gained the W. Actuals: March 17th, .58 inches of rain, High 45, Low 32 March 18th, .05 inches of liquid in snow, High 38, Low 25
It feels like Dothan is home to many forecasts in our history. If that’s the case, then this should be a slam dunk, right?
At 1153AM, ET, Dothan was reporting a temperature of 61 degrees. A thick, anomalous splotch of overcast was situated over southeastern Alabama and the surrounding bits of Florida and Georgia, keeping temperatures in Dothan, Enterprise and the surrounding environs several degrees off the pace of other nearby locations. Flow was generally southerly, though dew points were still quite comfortable, with a lingering cold front from the southern Great Lakes to the High Plains, with more development to follow. The cold front will stall over the Ohio Valley through the day on Thursday, leading to some warmer temperatures in Dothan. With a broad slow moving trough in the western US, the central Mississippi Valley will be ripe for development. An area of low pressure will develop over St Louis and encourage the southerly flow, making for an even warmer day on Friday. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 55 Friday – Sunny, High 84, Low 58
TWC: Tomorrow – Areas of patchy fog early. Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies High 83, Low 53 Friday – Areas of patchy fog early. Sun and a few passing clouds High 84, Low 60
AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine; start of a period of much warmer weather High 84, Low 53 Friday – Partly sunny and breezy High 83, Low 59
NWS: Tomorrow – Widespread dense fog, mainly before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, High 82, Low 54 Friday – Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 83, Low 58
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. Areas of fog in the morning, High 80, Low 53 Friday – Partly sunny in the morning, then clearing. Patchy fog in the morning. High 82, Low 58
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 82, Low 54 Friday – Mostly sunny, High 83, Low 58
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 82, Low 52 Friday – Partly cloudy, High 83, Low 57
Here you can see that splotch over Dothan, remnant from some morning fog. It’s probably going to settle back in tonight.
Fond du Lac was seeing the last few flakes of a weak snow system when we issued their forecast a week and a half ago. It snows in March, that’s not unusual. In fact, March is one of the snowiest months of the year for the north central US. What was unusual was that on Tuesday, temperatures dropped down to single digits, well below normal. Victoria-Weather had a chilly outlook, securing the victory for the home team. Actuals: March 13th, .07 inches of liquid in snow, High 29, Low 19| March 14th, High 31, Low 7
Well, that didn’t take long. The new outlets we cycle in are not generally that successful. I’m not sure Weathernation has ever won. Clime, however, won in only their second month on the job. After an auspicious start to the year, they have steadily improved and were able to take the second title of the year, and so far, have the highest individual forecast total of all of our outlets.
Our first forecast in the month of March went pretty well, frankly. There was a late developing, potentially virulent storm headed towards the Great Lakes that lead to an array of precipitation forecasts in Michigan City. In the end, on March 9th, Michigan City saw precipitation in the evening, which changed to all snow quite quickly. This happened sooner than anticipated, but it wasn’t doom and gloom for most of the forecasts, at least those that called for precipitation. The temperatures were baked in before the precipitation was expected, so for those that called for rain, the forecast worked well. Victoria-Weather started the month with a W. Actuals: March 8th, High 46, Low 30 March 9th, Trace of precipitation, HIgh 43, Low 32
On this, the first day of the round of 64 in the NCAA tournament, we go to Utica, a town that sure sounds like a college town. Alas, they are not home to any Division 1 universities, but they are situated in the scenic Adirondacks.
At 153PM, ET, Utica/Rome was reporting a temperature of 43 degrees with overcast skies. The temperatures have bounced back nicely in the wake of the first real nor’easter of the season, however the climb in temperatures is aided by another system developing in the Mississippi Valley. Southerly winds will continue through the mid Atlantic today, bringing even more warm air to Utica, continuing what has been a very toasty winter season, though at this point in the year, and this system in particular are quite spring like. The storm is responsible for severe weather in the Red River Valley that will become more widespread this afternoon. Of more pertinence to the Utica region is the sloppy mix in the Northern Plains. As most systems do, this feature is starting its poleward motion, and at this time even the northern flank of this feature is mixing with rain. This suggests that warmer air will pull further north, and as the system moves through, Utica can expect an all rain event tomorrow. The rain will be fairly light with a dry slot nosing into the Adirondacks, and temperatures will fall off on Saturday as the cold air arrives. By that point, most of the moisture will have pressed into Canada, and a chilly breeze will be more noticeable than the few flakes in the evening. Tomorrow – Scattered showers, High 44, Low 32 Saturday – Chilly and breezy with a little bit of flurry activity late, High 35, Low 24
TWC: Tomorrow – Rain, High 45, Low 30 Saturday- Mostly cloudy. Snow showers around in the afternoon. High 37, Low 30
AW: Tomorrow – Periods of rain, High 47, Low 32 Saturday – Mostly cloudy with a couple of snow showers; any heavy snow shower could cover the ground quickly and reduce visibility High 40, Low 26
NWS: Tomorrow – Showers, mainly after 9am High 45, Low 31 Saturday – A chance of snow showers after 3pm High 37, Low 25
WB: Tomorrow – Rain showers with freezing rain likely in the morning with rain showers in the afternoon, High 42, Low 32 Saturday – Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A 40% chance of snow showers, High 36, Low 24
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers, High 45, Low 31 Saturday – Windy with snow showers possible, High 35, Low 29
CLI: Tomorrow – Drizzle, High 45, Low 32 Saturday – Light snow, High 39, Low 23
More wet weather is on the way for Utica. It seems pretty ok for now, but the next feature looms.
