In the past, when I was unable to get to a forecaster of the month, and I paired two months into one post, I would title the post “ForecasterS of the Month.” You’ll note that I did not pluralize it this time around, for the very good reason that the forecaster was one and the same for both months. Autumn has swept in, and Victoria-Weather has swept two months in a row!
This is a win, admittedly, for model guidance. Hurricane Ian devastated southwest Florida, but otherwise, the US was impressively dry. Precipitation was sparse, which meant there was little variation from model guidance, and V-W knew how to read the output. Go team!
When a drought is on, there is nothing better than a long, steady rain, and at the beginning of last week, that is exactly what Columbia, Missouri got. Over two inches of rain fell between Monday and Tuesday of last week, giving the region a drink, and starting to rejuvenate the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers. Everyone had rain in the forecast, and correctly prognosticated a non-standard day, though I don’t think anyone was this optimistic on total rainfall. Weatherbug had the top forecast for the day, which ultimately came down to solid temperature trending. Actuals: Monday, Oct 24th, .59 inches of rain, High 74, Low 58 Tuesday, October 25th, 1.45 inches of rain, High 56, Low 42
Texas A&M is located in College Station, and is home to a very good meteorology school. One suspects that at least one of the forecasters in this competition will have a close connection with College Station.
AT 1253PM, CT, College Station was reporting a temperature of 73 with clear skies. A jet streak aloft over east Texas was evident in some streaming cirrus over the region. Further to the south, a thatch of clouds over southern Texas represented return flow on the back end of surface high pressure. As the jet streak carries to the northeast, the Gulf will open further, with moisture allowed to trek north through the state. A weak trough at the entrance of the jet streak is going to exacerbate the shower activity in south Texas, with rain bubbling up through much of the southern half of the Lone Star State. As this upper wave transitions away, and an upper ridge establishes over the center of the country, high pressure will recommit to the southeastern US. Flow into an area of low pressure developing in the High Plains will route north of College Station, and a warm, dry start to November is anticipated. Tomorrow – Chance of evening showers, otherwise warm, High 73, Low 58 Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 76, Low 60
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy early with partial sunshine expected late. High 75, Low 58 Wednesday – Partly cloudy skies. High 80, Low 56
AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a couple of showers High 73, Low 60 Wednesday – Pleasant with sun and areas of low clouds High 79, Low 60
NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers before 1pm. Partly sunny, High 72, Low 59 Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 56
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. High 71, Low 60 Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 58
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 72, Low 54 Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 79, Low 56
FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 70, Low 57 Wednesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 77, Low 59
Tomorrow, in a worst case scenario, might necessitate kids staying indoors and eating a whole lot of candy. Happy Halloween!
Pocatello behaved mostly as expected, if you managed to sleep in every day. If you woke up early though on the 18th and 19th, you would find that temperatures were significantly colder than what most outlets forecast. It wasn’t a bad forecast overall for the winners (Who happened to be us, Victoria-Weather) because the high temperatures were handled well, and the precipitation threat was for later in the week. Low temperatures ended up as low as 26 on the 19th, which was a bit cooler than the 40s WeatherNation threw out there. Actuals: October 18th, High 76, Low 30 October 19th, High 73, Low 26
The question when I tell you what is coming soon is, as always “how soon”? I don’t have a good answer for that, but my hope is a more regular schedule between now and the holidays, before things invariably go sideways again. Let’s keep our fingers crossed!
Jefferson City, Missouri
Road Trip from Jefferson City to Casper, Wyoming
Racine, Wisconsin Road trip from Lakeland, Florida to Racine
If you know any thing about me, know that I love it that we take road trips that are a bit different The trip, just shy of 8 hours, makes it’s biggest turn at Cedar Rapids. Has that ever happened? I don’t think so! It’s a 491 mile trek, covering 3 states at a pace of about 62mph. And we get to see Cedar Rapids!
Columbia, Missouri
Low pressure spinning over the mountains is going to sink deeper to the southern Plains. The light rain showers that are threatening the Upper Midwest are going to be drawn south to the more organized region of instability in Texas by the time we would depart tomorrow. The weather will get less cloudy and potentially a few degrees warmer as we head to eastern Wisconsin.
There was a threat of some showers cycling through south Texas on the back of tropical storm Karl, which was spinning down in the Bay of Campeche. Tropical storms, until the reach land, tend to draw moisture towards themselves, and this was the case in Brownsville in the middle of October. It was hot and dry in Brownsville for our forecast period, which led to a forecast victory for WeatherNation, which had the combined success of a their piggybacking off of the Weather Service’s temperature forecast, and their own foresight to leave rain out of the forecast. Actuals: October 14th, High 92, Low 74 October 15th, High 91, Low 74
Columbia is the home of the University of Missouri, and like most of the population of Missouri, isn’t terribly far from St. Louis.
At 154PM, CT, Columbia was reporting a temperature of 83 degrees with fair skies. Low pressure moving through the northern Plains was inducing brisk southerly winds that were bringing temperatures up to unusually high levels, and introducing a little bit of moisture to the atmosphere. Columbia was on the cusp of drought, but is not presently under a red flag warning, even with the gusty winds. The strong feature in the Plains is going to gain a tighter circulation and start moving north toward the Dakotas and Minnesota. The cold front, owing to the primarily northerly vector of the system, will be slow moving. The boundary will flare in Kansas and Oklahoma tomorrow morning, and slowly traipse across Missouri before arriving in Columbia in the evening on Monday. The base of the trough will be fertile ground for more cyclonic development, and a wave will develop in the Red River Valley and move north, ensuring that after the rain and thunder start on Monday, it will persist, though likely with less thunder, through the early part of Tuesday, with colder temperatures following. Tomorrow – Rain and thunder arriving late after another warm October day. High 74, Low 54 Tuesday – Rain through the afternoon, then clearing, High 54, Low 46
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with occasional rain in the afternoon. Thunder possible High 72, Low 50 Tuesday – Periods of rain High 52, Low 49
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, breezy and not as warm; a couple of afternoon showers and a heavy thunderstorm High 72, Low 55 Tuesday – Cloudy, breezy and cooler with heavy rain tapering off High 55, Low 46
NWS: Tomorrow – Showers, mainly after 2pm High 73, Low 59 Tuesday – Showers likely, mainly before 2pm. Mostly cloudy High 59, Low 46
WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy, showers in the afternoon, High 74, Low 56 Tuesday – Showers likely mainly in the morning, High 57, Low 46
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers, High 74, Low 63 Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 56, Low 48
FIO: Tomorrow – Rain throughout the day. High 79, Low 63 Tuesday – Rain throughout the day. High 67, Low 46
It is non-standard temperature season! What a rainy forecast for eastern Missouri. I wouldn’t be surprised to see several inches of rain in some parts of the state. The low is easily apparent up in Montana even this afternoon.
The middle of October was a fairly quiet time for those interested in all things weather, so a little bit of a disturbance rippling from the southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley qualified as interesting. It certainly added intrigue to our forecast for Fayetteville, as it resulted in a smattering of rain on both days of the forecast period, and even more surprisingly, led to fairly warm overnight lows from the 10th to the 11th. The Weather Channel won because they had warmer lows on the 11th, but also were one of the only two outlets with rain in the forecast on both days of the period. Actuals: October 10th, .01 inches of rain, High 76, Low 50 October 11th, .02 inches of rain, High 81, Low 68
I saw that we are on the cusp of some changes to the pattern in the interior northwest. It is October, so perhaps you can guess what kind of changes those might be.
At 1153AM, MT, Pocatello was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 62. The clear skies were leading to chilly nights with the low dew points, but the sunshine meant temperatures were unbound in the afternoon, and record highs have been dotting the region of late. The low trough off the west coast in conjunction with the ridge has established what is known as a Rex Block, stifling flow in Idaho. The western US is going to remain under this Rex Block until the weekend, and flow through the region will remain fairly stagnated. Expect some morning haze or smog, especially in the valleys, thanks to the lack of flow at the surface, but continued warm temperatures and sunny skies in the afternoon. Things will be quite a bit different this weekend, however. Tomorrow – Sunny with haze, High 76, Low 35 Wednesday – Sunny, hazy in the morning, High 73, Low 34
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies High 76, Low 36 Wednesday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 74, Low 35
AW: Tomorrow – Warm with plenty of sunshine High 76, Low 34 Wednesday – Brilliant sunshine and warm with the temperature approaching the record of 78 set in 1950 High 75, Low 35
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 74, Low 42 Wednesday – Sunny, High 73, Low 43
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, areas of frost in the morning, High 72, Low 35 Wednesday – Sunny, High 71, Low 36
WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 74, Low 42 Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 73, Low 43
FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 74, Low 40 Wednesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 72, Low 37
Pretty different forecast lows, but consistent elsewhere. Makes sense when the satellite imagery looks like this. By the way, the change I hinted at in the intro is coming over the weekend. It’s going to get cold and snowy for a lot of the Northwest.
