A tightly wound area of low pressure, remnant from the terrible flooding in the Southwest, is plowing through the Great Lakes. It’s February 8th, and the feature is intense enough that it is producing storm reports, including 50mph wind and 1 inch hail.
I should note that these are simply the most recent observations, with the wind coming from the system in the area, but there was even a tornado observed south of Madison this afternoon. It was the first February tornado in Wisconsin in recorded history.
I am sure this is something you all know out in New England, but I learned recently that Springfield is actually serviced by Hartford’s Bradley International Airport. They are so close!
At 1055AM, ET, Springfield was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 31. There is a steady north wind thanks to a vast gyre off the coast of New England, and some scattered clouds north of Massachusetts, but despite these factors working against the town, a pleasant February day is anticipated. Surface high pressure will continue to remain in place for the next few days, but a jet ridge will start nosing into the area by the end of the week, with a warm front nosing in on Thursday, really bringing about a warming trend. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 43, Low 26 Thursday – Partly cloudy, a bit warmer, High 47, low 28
TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. High 44, Low 25 Thursday – Plentiful sunshine. High 47, Low 26
AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sun High 46, Low 24 Thursday – Sunny and mild High 48, Low 25
NWS: Tomorrow Sunny, High 43, Low 24 Thursday – Sunny, High 46, Low 25
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 40, Low 28 Thursday – Sunny, High 45, Low 28
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 43, Low 24 Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 46, low 25
CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 46, Low 25 Thursday – Sunny, High 50, Low 25
Wow, Clime is going for the gusto, boldly putting Springfield at 50. We’ll see how that goes.
The “atmospheric river’ terminology is one that has really captured the imagination of the media, and we are hearing it quite a bit right now as rainfall is inundating southern California. The atmospheric river is simply a strong active jet stream, and when it comes from the sea, there is more moisture available, and “more moisture” isn’t something we think of when talking about southern California. In fact, last month when we were forecasting for San Luis Obispo, I thought the few showers showing up in the area were remarkable enough to call them out ostentatiously. The rain seen now in the LA Basin is several orders of magnitude larger than that, so if this is the atmospheric river, then what we saw in late January was a mere stream. A trickle. For the day, WeatherNation had the forecast victory, being the best temperature forecaster among outlets that left rain in the forecast on the 25th. Actuals: January 25th, .01 inches of rain, High 66, Low 51 January 26th, High 75, Low 48
We were pretty insistent on churning out forecasts to start the year, which was good, because the weather was just as active as our forecast schedule. Given the frequency of our forecasting, and the intensity of the weather this month, it was a well earned victory for our winning forecaster, The Weather Channel
The work week is right around the corner, and it looks terribly active, especially out west, where flooding and mountain snow are going to be the story for millions of people in California and Nevada. Fortunately, this won’t translate to severe weather later in the week. I’ll look forward to having a few posts on all this weather, including forecasts, starting as soon as tomorrow.
A business trip this week. Why a business trip? Because it will start on Monday and last through Thursday. Expect it to cover 2074 miles at a pace of a little more than 69mph, which will get us a healthy 553 miles a day for the first three days of our trek. And not to spoil anything, but the weather does look good.
DAY ONE (Monday)
San Luis Obispo, California
High pressure is back out there, everyone. it’s dominating the majority of the country this week, and the southwest US is no exception. The hardest part of the day will be leaving San Luis Obispo (because it’s so lovely) but we will arrive with no concerns at the Crookton Road exit, east of Seligman, Arizona.
DAY TWO (Tuesday) Nothing is really going to change on Tuesday, except for our location. We will see some rising and falling terrain, but not any real weather change. Heck, we’ll even be on I-40 the whole way. We’ll make it to Tucumcari, New Mexico, before this easy day concludes.
DAY THREE (Wednesday) Our good luck continues on Wednesday, as we spend much of the day in a calm, quiet Texas. The road will be clear, but be wary of traffic in Dallas, because it will have been a while since we saw any. The jet will start forming a kink south of Texas, and that can portend bad news for the atmosphere, but it won’t yet, not on Wednesday. We stop in Canton, Texas for one last pit stop.
DAY FOUR (Thursday) The trough will indeed start stirring up some wet weather, but it won’t emerge until after we are on our way into Mississippi. The rain will be over Mexico, low pressure in west Texas, and mostly sunny skies in Hattiesburg.
I know there is a “North” in the name, but you don’t usually think of sub-freezing temperatures in Charlotte, North Carolina. That’s exactly what they saw on January 19th and 20th, though. Most of the 20th, in fact, was below freezing, with highs remaining in the mid-30s. It’s been an active month, and post frontal cooldowns are becoming many in the southeast are getting used to enduring. The Weather Channel and Accuweather tied for the top forecast, missing out, as everyone did, on the end of the rain associated with that cold front sweeping through. No rain on the 19th. Actuals: January 19th, High 52, Low 29 January 20th, High 33, Low 20
This has been a busy January. Not only have we had a lot of forecasts, but they have all been during or very close to significant weather. The real test will be if we can keep it up with a forecast in California.
AT 256PM, PT, San Luis Obispo was reporting a temperature of 58 degrees with overcast skies. A weak wave was moving through the Pacific Northwest, and sweeping a mid level cold front as far south as Point Conception. There were scattered showers through out the region, though right now, the heaviest precipitation is diminishing between San Luis Obispo and Bakersfield, with another batch closer to Los Angeles. The rain is expected to linger in the area, though mostly inland from San Luis Obispo and south towards the LA Basin. The onshore flow behind the boundary will mean that San Luis Obispo will see some overcast through the day Thursday even if they don’t get much more rain. An advancing ridge should bring clearer skies to end the work week. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, with a few breaks late. Early sprinkles, High 64, Low 50 Friday – Sunny with a bit of morning haze, High 72, Low 45
TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 67, Low 53 Friday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 72, Low 47
AW: Tomorrow – Low clouds giving way to sunshine High 70, Low 55 Friday – Partly sunny and pleasant High 74, Low 48
NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy drizzle before 10am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 65, Low 51 Friday – Mostly sunny High 69, Low 49
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then sunny. Patchy drizzle in the morning, High 67, Low 53 Friday – Partly cloudy, High 71, Low 47
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with patchy drizzle, High 66, Low 51 Friday – Partly cloudy, High 69, Low 49
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 50 Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 73, Low 48
It IS raining in southern California, but things are improving quickly. Now, here is the ultra rare SOCAL RADAR!
Even, unfortunately, the mistakes are bigger in Texas. Temperature behind last week’s system did not react quite how anyone had anticipated in Dallas. Every outlet thought it would be as cool as freezing, or nearly there on the 18th, last Thursday, and it only dipped as low as 40. This warmer base meant that the high on Friday was also significantly warmer than expected as well, with the midnight high coming in at 45, when nobody expected anything better than the mid-30s. It wasn’t a good forecast, for sure, but The Weather Channel ultimately came away with the top score. Actuals: Thursday – High 58, Low 40 Friday – High 45, Low 26
