NWS Pueblo just posted this graphic. I think we all know that the Plains are warmer than the mountains, but I think the real intrigue is how close valley temperatures are to the mountains.
The difference between the mountains and the plains
Norma is a little bit delayed
Back when I forecast for Victoria, the forecast took into account Hurricane Norma, which was scheduled to attempt to traverse northern Mexico. Well, it’s Sunday, and Norma is still just hanging out. We’ll see what happens with that verification, what with our no show.
The latest guidance has Norma taking a more northerly tract. It looks rainier than it did when we looked at the beginning of the weekend, but will never really reach east Texas. Instead, look for Norma to bring some heavy rain to west Texas after arriving from the southwest. You know, like tropical features do so often.
Olympia, Washington
We’re off to Washington for this weekend issued forecast. Olympia is the capital of Washington, and the southern most city on the Puget Sound. Let’s check out Western Washington.
At 154PM, PT, Olympia was reporting a temperature of 54 degrees with a low overcast that was blanketing most of the Sound. There was a little bit of rain mixed with these clouds moving north through Centralia, with a some light rain likely to come to the capitol in the next couple of hours.
A weak circulation off the coast is driving flow on shore, which is helping to encourage the thick layer of coastal clouds that Washington is enduring this morning. The low is not expected to deteriorate until a parent upper level trough moves onshore late tomorrow. There will be a break in the clouds on Monday morning, but the upper level flow will be reinforced, and a trough will redevelop over Vancouver. The threat on Monday night will be from rain, rather than simply from overcast, though most of the activity will come to the north Sound.
Tomorrow – Overcast through the afternoon, chance of a little bit of drizzle. High 61, Low 52
Monday – Breaks in the clouds early, then clouds return with some late showers, High 56, Low 47
TWC: Tomorrow – Areas of fog early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 64, Low 51
Monday – Partly cloudy High 59, Low 47
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a shower in the area High 65, Low 49
Monday – Cloudy High 57, Low 46
NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, High 61, Low 51
Monday – Mostly cloudy (late rain), High 58, Low 46
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 60, Low 53
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 56, Low 48
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers, High 60, Low 52
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 57, Low 47
CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 63, Low 48
Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 58, Low 43
I think I am more aggressive with my rain forecast because of the rain falling with the weak system in the area today that isn’t being handled by the models.
Slick forecasting skills
I couldn’t think of a very good one liner about Bowling, Green or even the Corvette Museum in the city of Bowling Green, not that “good” is usually our qualifier. I just wanted to get to the point: We had a decent enough day forecasting in a couple of sunny days in Bowling Green last Wednesday and Thursday, which allowed for a pretty good baseline for these forecasts. It was Weatherbug, who had at least 12 hours of perfect forecasting over the forecast period, that earned a forecasting victory.
Actuals: October 11th, Hough 70, Low 44
October 12th, High 79, Low 51
Grade: A-C
Racine, Wisconsin to Victoria, Texas
We’re taking the rare 2 1/2 day trip that doesn’t once leave the Central Time Zone. The route will cover 1281 miles at a pace of 64.6mph, which means the full days will cover about 517 miles, leaving a pretty easy day to conclude the trip. Here’s hoping the weather along the route is just as easy.
DAY ONE (Friday)
Our first day of our drive will be a fine lesson in Midwest driving. We’ll slice through Illinois and southeastern Missouri, including Chicago, as well as a raft of farm country in between. Low pressure will be just recently departing Wisconsin, but will still be spinning over Michigan as we depart. There will certainly be some overcast through Chicago, but cool and crisp northwest winds will begin to force their way in as we pass through Champaign. The sun will be out through southern Illinois, though it may be breezy. We’ll pop into Missouri and reach the Bootheel town of Caruthersville to conclude the first day of our trek.
DAY TWO (Saturday)
A late season ridge will be building back into the south central US over the weekend, with temperatures giving everyone a reprieve before the real winter air starts getting ideas. For our purposes, mostly sunny skies are going dominate the drive from Caruthersville through Arkansas and south to Lufkin, Texas, where we will spend our wild Saturday night.
DAY THREE (Sunday)
Hurricane Norma is going to spiral back into the Mexican Coast over the weekend, and will have her work cut out for herself, attempting to navigate the Chihuahua Desert. There will be an onshore flow as a result of the churning environment in the northern US and enhanced by Norma’s trek across northern Mexico, so our half day through east Texas is likely to be cloudy, with a few spots of drizzle possible, especially after we’ve arrived in Victoria.
I wanted you to hear it from me first
While this is indeed a map that exists, it is well into the future, and even then, only a “slight” Could there be some spots of heavy snow, particularly in the peaks on the western side of this outlook area? Sure. Am I particularly concerned for Omaha, Bismarck or the Twin Cities? I am not.
Victoria, Texas
Victoria-Weather is forecasting for Victoria, Texas, and one might wonder if we have a home field advantage. I can assure you that we do not. Victoria-Weather is named after my home town of Victoria, Minnesota. Slightly different climates.
At 1051AM, CT, Victoria was reporting a temperature of 64 degrees with clear skies and a brisk northerly wind. This will surely keep temperatures cooler for the Gulf Coast this morning. the wind is based on a surface flow, however, and high pressure is blanketing the middle of the country. Flow aloft is fairly stagnant, and cold air will not be actively imported as winds start to subside this afternoon.
A weak, quick hitting trough is developing in the lee of the Rockies, and will be moving northeast towards the Upper Midwest. The flow in the region will not alter much, thanks to sluggish jet flow in the region, but Victoria may see a little bit of a rise in humidity as the Gulf opens to the feature to the north.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 49
Wednesday – Warner, a bit stuffier, High 81, Low 56
TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 77, Low 45
Wednesday – Mainly sunny. High 85, Low 53
AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with plenty of sunshine High 77, Low 41
Wednesday – Plenty of sunshine; breezy in the afternoon High 84, Low 49
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 46
Wednesday – Sunny, High 82, Low 53
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73, low 48
Wednesday – Sunny, High 82, Low 55
WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 45
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 53
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 45
Wednesday – Sunny, High 83, Low 53
Those are some chilly morning lows for as far souh as Victoria is. The clouds over the Gulf certainly depict the vigorous off shore flow that is being observed. The rippling of the clouds parallel the coast, with nothing on land tells the story.
Hard to beat
It had been a minute since we had composed a forecast before we put one together for Evansville. I mused that I hoped we remembered how to do it. Our forecast was fine, but it was difficult to improve on the near perfection of The Weather Channel and Accuweather. They had the same forecast, which paid dividends, because aside from the high temperature being 1 degree too cool on Saturday, the forecast was spot on. Granted, accuracy should be at its best with sunny weather forecasts like we saw in southern Indiana, the forecasts were nevertheless commendable.
Actuals: Saturday – High 64, Low 45
Sunday – High 67, Low 40
Grade: A – C
Racine, Wisconsin
Racine is nestled between Chicago and Milwaukee as part of the well populated stretch of lakeshore around Lake Michigan. It’s going to be a rainy couple of days for a lot of people. Is Racine going to be one of those locales?
At 1153PM, CT, Racine was reporting a temperature of 56 degrees with overcast skies. There was a smattering of rain showers moving west to east through northern Illinois, with some showers spilling north into Wisconsin. The coverage of rain in southern Wisconsin will only increase, as the rain is associated with a long, ranging warm front extended from a deepening system in the Plains.
Racine will exist in the warm sector for a brief time after the warm front passes through Thursday evening, and before the cold front arrives around midday on Friday. The front will potentially bring a bit of severe weather to Chicagoland, and I wouldn’t rule it out in Racine, either. The cold front will be gusty, and the tight rotation of the nearby low pressure could lead to some short lived funnels in the area. The primary concern, ultimately, will be rain, which will accumulate to several inches over the course of the storm, and depending on the intensity of thunderstorms.
Tomorrow – Rain early, ending late, High 57, Low 54
Friday – Rain and some thunder in the afternoon. Breezy, High 58, Low 52
TWC: Tomorrow – Overcast with showers at times. High 58, Low 54
Friday – Windy with rain likely. Potential for heavy rainfall. High 58, Low 54
AW: Tomorrow – Breezy with rain; the rain is much needed due to drought conditions High 58, Low 55
Friday – Windy with periods of rain, some heavy, and a thunderstorm; the combination of fallen leaves and rainfall can lead to slick roads High 59, Low 53
NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely, mainly after 3pm. Cloudy, High 58, Low 52
Friday – Showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm High 60, Low 54
WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. Chance of light rain showers in the morning, then light rain showers likely in the afternoon. High 56, Low 52
Friday – Breezy. Light showers likely in the morning then rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 55, Low 53
WN: Tomorrow – Windy with rain showers likely, High 58, Low 53
Friday – Windy with rain showers and scattered storms, High 59, Low 54
CLI: Tomorrow – Drizzle, High 57, Low 52
Friday – Drizzle, High 57, Low 52
Clime is really underselling this one, aren’t they? You can tell Racine is in for a grimy couple of days, with temperatures stuck in the 50s for 48+ hours. Here is the evening’s radar picture.
Pinching systems are going to be soakers
During the most recent forecast, I mentioned a couple of features headed for the headlines this week. First, a system moving through the northern Plains, which incidentally may bring about enough cold air to bring snow as far east as the Nebraska Panhandle. Second is the remnants of Tropical Storm Lidia, and we all know how soggy tropical features can be. That northern feature might even have more rain, at least over the US.
UPDATE: Great news! The threat for snow is looking less than we expected earlier. Still going to be plenty up in the mountains.
