La Crosse, Wisconsin

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Hello, forecast friends. We are taking our forecast express to the upper Mississippi Valley for our first forecast in December.

At 1053AM, CT LaCrosse was reporting a temperature of 22 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. There was a sharp trough angled to the southwest that divided the country in half. The ferocity of the trough was leading to overcast through the region, and a little bit of light snow throughout the north central US, however the severe angle it is taking towards the Four Corners is preventing the feature from bringing much moisture to the region. There will probably be a few flakes around LaCrosse this afternoon, but the real story is the cold high pressure behind the boundary.
The tilt of the trough aloft will make it disinclined to move off its spot. The high pressure at the surface, therefore, will be similarly rooted to its location. With the ridge holding firm, the cold air associated with it will remain in place as well. Unfortunately, this time of year, sunshine can only do so much, and despite mostly sunny skies, it will remain fairly chilly through the middle of the week.
Tomorrow – Some early flakes, then dropping temperatures, High 28, Low 3
Thursday – Clear and cold, High 15, Low -4

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. A few flurries or snow showers possible.  High 29, Low 7
Thursday -Mostly sunny skies.  High 16, Low -3

AW: Tomorrow – A morning flurry; otherwise, mostly cloudy, breezy and chilly, High28, Low 1
Thursday – A morning flurry; otherwise, mostly cloudy, breezy and chilly, High 13, Low -12

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of snow before 10am, then a chance of flurries between 10am and noon. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing High 26, Low 4
Thursday – Sunny, High 13, Low -6

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance of flurries in the morning then mostly sunny in the afternoon High 28, Low 9
Thursday – Mostly sunny. High 13, Low 4

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light snow showers, High 27, Low 4
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 13, Low -6

CLI: Tomorrow – Overcast, High 27, Low 4
Thursday – Sunny, High 15, Low -1

Here is a look at the afternoon satellite picture, with a few clouds smothering Wisconsin, thanks to that strong upper level jet. And yes, Accuweather is going -12 on Thursday, while Weatherbug is going 4 above. Attribute this to the GFS, which is saying -20 (!) on Thursday morning. Yikes!

Updates 12/2

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12:03AM I know this is absolutely at the top of everyone’s mind, but the precipitation has not reached Raleigh before midnight, and I am just now realizing that it hasn’t reached there by 1AM, either. Raleigh is in the eastern time zone. Maybe I should go to bed?

10:10PM The troublemaking system at the end of the holiday weekend is still causing problems. There are winter storm warnings across New England, right up to the coast in New Hampshire and Maine. No waiting around for winter this year.

Updates 12/1

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5:39PM: We await the next system in North Carolina. This one is a very interesting storm, as it is working into a region where the air is already cool, and bringing even colder air further south. It’s only 41 in Raleigh right now. It’s 32 in Little Rock, where sleet is falling at this hour. Is anyone ready?

Raleigh, North Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Holiday travel is at its peak this week, and especially tomorrow. We are taking to North Carolina for our forecast for this busy day.

At 1051PM, ET, Raleigh was reporting cloudy skies with a temperature of 36 degrees. The clouds may save the area from an especially chilly night, and they are patchy, with most reporting areas in the region reporting clear skies. An occluded front in the Plains attaches to a secondary low over eastern Tennessee. Temperatures in Georgia and South Carolina are about 20 degrees warmer than they are in North Carolina, indicating the warm front. This is in active, however the cold and occluded fronts are well defined on radar, from the Upper Ohio Valley to northern Alabama and on to east Texas, where there is some convective activity.
The parent low is moving northeastward, and the secondary low doesn’t have a lot of vorticity support to carry on, and the southern cold frontal portion of the boundary will wither, even as a cold surface high pressure center slides from the Great Lakes to the Carolinas. Expect a chilly night Sunday after a few showers in the evening. Aloft, the pattern features a sharp trough moving out of the Rockies into the Plains. The ridge sweeping into the Carolinas overnight Sunday to Monday will kick out quickly. Rain is returning with more fervor on Tuesday, but for our purposes, that should only mean increasing clouds on Monday night.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, with a shot of rain in the afternoon. High 53, Low 29
Monday – Sunny, with clouds increasing after sundown, High 49, Low 31

TWC – Tomorrow – Cloudy with occasional light rain in the afternoon. High 55, Low 30
Monday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 49, Low 35

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a couple of showers in the afternoon High 56. Low 33
Monday – Cloudy in the morning, then times of clouds and sun in the afternoon High 51, Low 36

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of rain, mainly between 2pm and 4pm. Mostly cloudy, High 54, Low 30
Monday – Mostly sunny (early rain) High 50, Low 35

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain in the morning then a chance of rain in the afternoon High 54, Low 33
Monday – Mostly sunny.  High 47, Low 38

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with chance of light wintry mix, High 54, Low 32
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 34

CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers, High 58, Low 30
Monday – Sunny, High 49, Low 33

It’s a busy stretch, especially in the Carolinas. You can keep an eye on things in Raleigh on WRAL’s live radar stream.

Birmingham’s Not-So-Stormy Weekend

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Ahead of the Thanksgiving travel season, a storm system passed through the American southeast before petering out in the mid-Atlantic. There were some outlets that thought that it could lead to a bit of a severe weather outbreak around our forecast destination of Birmingham last Friday and Saturday, but fortunately, that didn’t come to pass. The whole feature was a bit messier than it could have been, and left some light showers in the region on Saturday as well as Friday, and didn’t bring the cold pool behind it that was in the forecast for some. It hit 80 last Saturday! Clime came away with the top forecast, thanks to a being one of the warmer forecasts on Saturday.
Actuals: Friday . 06″ of rain, High 71, Low 57
Saturday .03″ of rain, High 80, Low 55

Grade: A-C

Updates 11/26

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4:26PM: Thanksgiving is tomorrow! I hope you aren’t just learning that from me. The country mostly looks like it will in Springfield, Missouri. Mostly clear, and with the first dose of chilly air for the season. It will continue snowing in the Great Lakes, and be warm out west, but it’s a big country and this is only one blog. Happy Thanksgiving!

9:48PM It has been a very windy at Victoria-Weather headquarters today behind the system bringing snow to the Great Lakes and rain in New England, but the post-frontal howling wind is nothing compared to what they are looking for in the Upper Ohio Valley.

Providence, Rhode Island

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Tonight’s forecast will take us to New England through the Thanksgiving holiday. How will Rhode Islanders enjoy the day?

At 451PM, ET, Providence was reporting a temperature of 50 degrees with overcast skies. Rain was approaching, already sneaking into the southwestern corner of Rhode Island, at the leading edge of a warm front. The system is deeply occluded, and the cold front will pass through overnight as well. Southerly flow will follow the secondary cold front on Wednesday, which may drag a bit of moisture into the region, leading to a cloudy, at times drizzly day before Thanksgiving.
There is one last wave of moisture expected to slide through New England on Thanksgiving, but it is unlikely that there will be lingering effects. The day will be increasingly sunny, and quite pleasant by dinner time. Happy Thanksgiving!
Tomorrow – Rain, particularly early, with lingering showers throughout, High 59, Low 48
Thanksgiving – Some drizzle early then clearing and colder, High 55, Low 33

TWC: Tomorrow – Chance of a morning shower. Overcast. High 59, Low 48
Thanksgiving – Sunny along with a few clouds. High 55, Low 36

AW: Tomorrow – Rather cloudy with a couple of showers; wet weather can make for slow holiday travel High 61, Low 48
Thanksgiving – Sunny to partly cloudy, windy and cooler High 55, Low 34

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of rain between 9am and 3pm. Patchy fog.  High 61, Low 47
Thanksgiving – Mostly sunny, (AM Rain) High 56, Low 36

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain. Patchy fog High 59, Lo 50
Thanksgiving – Sunny High 55, Low 36

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with isolated showers, High 61, Low 47
Thanksgiving – Mostly sunny (early showers), High 54, Low 35

CLI: Tomorrow – Overcast High 60, Low 50
Thanksgiving – Partly cloudy, High 56, Low 35

Rain will be light, regardless of what happens, for a lot of the forecast period. And temperatures will be on their way down, so the Turkey Day Touch Football game looks to be a good way to warm up. Radar showing rain moving in is below, and if you are looking to get really involved, here is a live camera from Providence.

Updates 11/25

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2:52PM: There is a tornado watch out in Alabama right now. SPC has issued the below Mesoscale Discussion. Things are just starting to erupt in the region, but the severe weather is already past Tuscaloosa and nearly out of Birmingham. The area to keep a keen eye on for the next few hours is from Selma to Montgomery.