9:35AM: In the absence of any major synoptic scale features over the central CONUS (the big feature is a stalled boundary over the Florida Peninsula), the real weather maker is the general topography of the US. There area already some showers over the Rockies, and westerly flow across the mountains will lead to a it of localized low pressure in the lee. Without much upper level support, it will be like my Uncle Jack and never really make much of itself.
Updates 9/9
8:16PM: I should note that the area of low pressure that I mentioned in today’s earlier post is also draping a cold front across the Florida that is in essence single handedly scrubbing any drought concerns the area has. It’s also the only thing even close to interesting in the hurricane zones of the CONUS. I ain’t mad.
9:59PM: I told you cold snaps don’t last!
Asheville, North Carolina to Richmond, Virginia
This drive is a short (for us) but beautiful drive from western North Carolina, and a city that is still recuperating from the impacts of Helene last year, to the capital of Virginia, a city that has been growing over the last twenty years. The towns are 372 miles and about 5 1/2 hours apart, and without a direct line between them. Nevertheless, we will still proceed at a rate of about 68mph.
High pressure has built behind a cold front in the Appalachians. It will be a chilly day in North Carolina, but generally clear for the first part of the day. The cold air is riding the back of an offshore area of low pressure which will be near Virginia Beach as we head out on Wednesday. This low will cycle back moisture into the Coastal Plain, and starting around Middleburg, NC, we will start to see the chance for rain, which will stay with us the rest of the way to Richmond. Don’t be surprised if this rain is heavy at times. Bring an umbrella!
Cold snaps don’t last
They are called cold snaps, because they are over in a snap, just like heat waves are called that because they rise and fall. It’s been a while since we’ve enjoyed an extended period below normal, especially outside of winter, but naturally, that won’t be the long term trend.
A pool of cold air has dived south through the Plains and spread to the East Coast. The Mississippi Valley is seeing their coolest temperatures since March or April (and about a month too early), and the weekend will prove to be on the chilly side on the coast. The pattern will finally start to break, with a better formed trough shifting off shore, allowing warmer air in.
But still, that shift isn’t coming until Tuesday, and that is only in the Plains. Warmer air will start to return, but the surface ridge will wrap from New England the Gulf Coast, keeping a lot of the country dry, both in terms of rain, and lack of humidity. On the Coast, the below normal temperatures are going to last perhaps all week next week.
With all that said, we will be into mid-September, and yet, the monthly forecast still looks like this:
Even with that much time below normal, parts of the eastern 2/3rds of the US are above normal, and most of the region will be near normal, according to prediction from the CPC. Not only will the cold snap end, we can reasonably expect a course correction through the end of the month.
In my own world
Usually, when I put together my forecasts, I like to see what other outlets are saying. We are all using NWS models, so why shouldn’t we look at their forecasts a little bit as well? Anyways, I clearly forgot to do that with our forecast in Atlantic City, because my low temperature forecasts were 5 or 6 degrees cooler than everyone else. Surely I would have at least called that out in the summary at the end of the forecast. Whatever the case, I was right, and Victoria-Weather, with our cool overnight lows won the forecast in the same way the nights passed in Atlantic City — comfortably.
Monday – .01 inches of rain, High 75, Low 55
Tuesday – High 76, Low 54
Grade: B-F
Denver, Colorado
We’ve managed a few trips to Colorado recently. The weather is always interesting there, so I have no complaints. How does the end of the week look in the Mile High City?
At 253PM, MT, Denver was reporting a temperature of 84 degrees and partly cloudy skies. A westerly flow in the Rockies was producing a few showers in the higher terrain, but a dew point of 38 dried everything out before it could reach the ground in town. High pressure is moving southward along the Front Range, and should lead to a fairly decent time on Friday.
An area of low pressure in the Great Lakes is tailing a cold front into the southern part of the state, where a few showers are found. A jet trough will dive through the Prairies over the next couple of days, with a brisk westerly flow across the Rockies into the trough. This will lead to locally warm flow and an inversion at the surface. This could make Saturday a bit on the grey/grimy side.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 68, Low 54
Saturday – Hazy and smoky, but warmer, High 79, Low 48
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early, followed by partial clearing. High 72, Low 56
Saturday – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. High 82, Low 52
AW: Tomorrow – Nice with sun and areas of high clouds High 72, Low 55
Saturday – Mainly cloudy High 81, Low 49
NWS- Partly sunny High 73, Low 54
Saturday – A slight chance of showers between noon and 3pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Increasing clouds, High 80, Low 50
WB – Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning then partly cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 73, Low 61
Saturday – Mostly sunny with a 10 percent chance of showers. High 81, Low 54
WN – Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 72, Low 55
Saturday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers and isolated storms, High 80, Low 50
CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 70, Low 52
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 80, Low 49
Well, this precipitation forecast got more interesting than I anticipated. It will be interesting to see how it turns out. I expect a lot of it will revolve around drizzle within the mist in the early mornings, rather than the stuff we see in the Plains tonight.
It was too good to be true
It seemed like a little bit cooler air was going to settle in early to southwestern Oklahoma. There was a chance for a little bit of rain over the holiday weekend, but it was still plenty warm. Saturday was he winning day in Lawton, with dry skies and a cooler temperature that came on Sunday. There wsan’t much rain, just a drizzle, and it came with temperatures that were back up in the upper 80s. It’s what you should expect in Lawton, but it’s still disappointing when the forecast was for something a bit cooler. Accuweather had the warmest forecast and earned victory for the day.
Actuals: Saturday – High 81, Low 70
Sunday – .02″ of rain, High 88, Low 69
Grade: A-C
August Forecaster of the Month
Things were closely fought this month, with most forecasts resulting in ties, including one that was a 4 way draw. The winner, therefore, was barely better than the rest, but given how strong they have been this year, it’s another notch in the belt for The Weather Channel. Congratulations!
| Outlet | Forecast Wins (year) |
| The Weather Channel | 8.08 |
| National Weather Service | 6.91 |
| Accuweather | 5.5 |
| Clime | 3.75 |
| Weatherbug | 3 |
| WeatherNation | 2.91 |
| Victoria-Weather | 2.83 |
Lawton, Oklahoma to Atlantic City, New Jersey
I have a NASCAR race on in the background, which makes me think that we can cover the 1,529 miles of this trip in no time. Really, though, let’s play it cool and instead make the drive in about 3 days, leaving the third day the shortest. and drive at a safe speed of 68mph, and about 547 miles a day. We will save our poor choices for Atlantic City.
DAY ONE (Monday)
There is an eroding dry line that is washing out in the central Plains. This is producing some showers from about the Oklahoma City area to Springfield, Missouri, and there is no reason to think that this instigator will move much tomorrow. It likely won’t be as widespread as it is today. I would say the best threat will be in the higher terrain around the Ozarks, but should be fully wrapped up before we reach Sullivan, MO. Definitely before we hit Fenton, on the southwest side of St. Louis and our destination for the night.
DAY TWO (Tuesday)
Our weak trough is going to start to consolidate and turn around over night. It’s going to shift towards the Tennessee Valley, which should keep it juuuuuust far enough south to keep us dry for the day. There will be a few dark clouds dappling the sky as we continue east, and they will probably linger thorughout the day. Aside from maybe a sprinkle early in the morning as we pass through St. Louis, I think we are probably OK. The best bet for another shot of rain, albeit low, will come in the last couple of hours, from Columbus to Bannock, which is just outside of Wheeling, and our destination for the night.
DAY THREE (Wednesday)
That same trough will waste itself on the Appalachians and spread along the range. There will be some splashes of rain, particularly on the western faces of the range for the first part of the day. We’ll have rain through about Bedford, after which point the weak system will have a tough time transcending the Appalachians. The sun will be shining in Atlantic City when we pull in.
Atlantic City, New Jersey
After bouncing around the middle of the country recently, we will now head to the East Coast, where we will probably see things like “the Gulf Stream” mentioned a few times.
At 454PM, ET, Atlantic City was reporting a temperature of 74 degrees with clear skies. There is a thatch of clouds over Delaware Bay, associated with an upper level trough. There is a jet streak over the western Atlantic, but surface high pressure is keeping things rain free in the mid-Atlantic.
There is a bit of moisture in the middle of the country that will struggle to ascend the Appalachians. Low pressure following the Gulf Stream is moving at the eastern periphery of coler air, and the northerly flow in New Jersey will keep the region unseasonably cool.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 74, Low 56
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, High 76, Low 55
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 73, Low 60
Tuesday – Partly cloudy High 74, Low 60
AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and windy; a nice afternoon for outdoor activities High 74, Low 62
Tuesday – Nice with plenty of sunshine High 72, Low 61
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 75, Low 64
Tuesday – Sunny, High 75, Low 62
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 70, Low 64
Tuesday – Sunny, High 72, Low 63
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 74, Low 64
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 74, Low 63
CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 73, Low 59
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 74, Low 59
Looks like south Jersey is in for a good Labor Day. Clouds entering the area are high, and not as threatening as they might look.
