Springfield, Massachusetts

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I am sure this is something you all know out in New England, but I learned recently that Springfield is actually serviced by Hartford’s Bradley International Airport. They are so close!

At 1055AM, ET, Springfield was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 31. There is a steady north wind thanks to a vast gyre off the coast of New England, and some scattered clouds north of Massachusetts, but despite these factors working against the town, a pleasant February day is anticipated.
Surface high pressure will continue to remain in place for the next few days, but a jet ridge will start nosing into the area by the end of the week, with a warm front nosing in on Thursday, really bringing about a warming trend.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 43, Low 26
Thursday – Partly cloudy, a bit warmer, High 47, low 28

TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds. High 44, Low 25
Thursday – Plentiful sunshine. High 47, Low 26

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sun High 46, Low 24
Thursday – Sunny and mild High 48, Low 25

NWS: Tomorrow Sunny, High 43, Low 24
Thursday – Sunny, High 46, Low 25

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 40, Low 28
Thursday – Sunny, High 45, Low 28

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 43, Low 24
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 46, low 25

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 46, Low 25
Thursday – Sunny, High 50, Low 25

Wow, Clime is going for the gusto, boldly putting Springfield at 50. We’ll see how that goes.

The atmospheric stream

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The “atmospheric river’ terminology is one that has really captured the imagination of the media, and we are hearing it quite a bit right now as rainfall is inundating southern California. The atmospheric river is simply a strong active jet stream, and when it comes from the sea, there is more moisture available, and “more moisture” isn’t something we think of when talking about southern California. In fact, last month when we were forecasting for San Luis Obispo, I thought the few showers showing up in the area were remarkable enough to call them out ostentatiously. The rain seen now in the LA Basin is several orders of magnitude larger than that, so if this is the atmospheric river, then what we saw in late January was a mere stream. A trickle. For the day, WeatherNation had the forecast victory, being the best temperature forecaster among outlets that left rain in the forecast on the 25th.
Actuals: January 25th, .01 inches of rain, High 66, Low 51
January 26th, High 75, Low 48

Grade: B-C

January Forecaster of the Month

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We were pretty insistent on churning out forecasts to start the year, which was good, because the weather was just as active as our forecast schedule. Given the frequency of our forecasting, and the intensity of the weather this month, it was a well earned victory for our winning forecaster, The Weather Channel

OutletForecast Wins (year)
The Weather Channel2.83
Victoria-Weather1
Accuweather0.83
National Weather Service0.83
WeatherNation0.5
Clime
Weatherbug
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The work week is right around the corner, and it looks terribly active, especially out west, where flooding and mountain snow are going to be the story for millions of people in California and Nevada. Fortunately, this won’t translate to severe weather later in the week. I’ll look forward to having a few posts on all this weather, including forecasts, starting as soon as tomorrow.

San Luis Obispo, California to Hattiesburg, Mississippi

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A business trip this week. Why a business trip? Because it will start on Monday and last through Thursday. Expect it to cover 2074 miles at a pace of a little more than 69mph, which will get us a healthy 553 miles a day for the first three days of our trek. And not to spoil anything, but the weather does look good.

DAY ONE (Monday)

San Luis Obispo, California

High pressure is back out there, everyone. it’s dominating the majority of the country this week, and the southwest US is no exception. The hardest part of the day will be leaving San Luis Obispo (because it’s so lovely) but we will arrive with no concerns at the Crookton Road exit, east of Seligman, Arizona.

DAY TWO (Tuesday)
Nothing is really going to change on Tuesday, except for our location. We will see some rising and falling terrain, but not any real weather change. Heck, we’ll even be on I-40 the whole way. We’ll make it to Tucumcari, New Mexico, before this easy day concludes.

DAY THREE (Wednesday)
Our good luck continues on Wednesday, as we spend much of the day in a calm, quiet Texas. The road will be clear, but be wary of traffic in Dallas, because it will have been a while since we saw any. The jet will start forming a kink south of Texas, and that can portend bad news for the atmosphere, but it won’t yet, not on Wednesday. We stop in Canton, Texas for one last pit stop.

DAY FOUR (Thursday)
The trough will indeed start stirring up some wet weather, but it won’t emerge until after we are on our way into Mississippi. The rain will be over Mexico, low pressure in west Texas, and mostly sunny skies in Hattiesburg.

Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Uncharacteristically chilly

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I know there is a “North” in the name, but you don’t usually think of sub-freezing temperatures in Charlotte, North Carolina. That’s exactly what they saw on January 19th and 20th, though. Most of the 20th, in fact, was below freezing, with highs remaining in the mid-30s. It’s been an active month, and post frontal cooldowns are becoming many in the southeast are getting used to enduring. The Weather Channel and Accuweather tied for the top forecast, missing out, as everyone did, on the end of the rain associated with that cold front sweeping through. No rain on the 19th.
Actuals: January 19th, High 52, Low 29
January 20th, High 33, Low 20

Grade: B-C

San Luis Obispo, California

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This has been a busy January. Not only have we had a lot of forecasts, but they have all been during or very close to significant weather. The real test will be if we can keep it up with a forecast in California.

AT 256PM, PT, San Luis Obispo was reporting a temperature of 58 degrees with overcast skies. A weak wave was moving through the Pacific Northwest, and sweeping a mid level cold front as far south as Point Conception. There were scattered showers through out the region, though right now, the heaviest precipitation is diminishing between San Luis Obispo and Bakersfield, with another batch closer to Los Angeles.
The rain is expected to linger in the area, though mostly inland from San Luis Obispo and south towards the LA Basin. The onshore flow behind the boundary will mean that San Luis Obispo will see some overcast through the day Thursday even if they don’t get much more rain. An advancing ridge should bring clearer skies to end the work week.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, with a few breaks late. Early sprinkles, High 64, Low 50
Friday – Sunny with a bit of morning haze, High 72, Low 45

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 67, Low 53
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 72, Low 47

AW: Tomorrow – Low clouds giving way to sunshine High 70, Low 55
Friday – Partly sunny and pleasant High 74, Low 48

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy drizzle before 10am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 65, Low 51
Friday – Mostly sunny High 69, Low 49

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then sunny. Patchy drizzle in the morning, High 67, Low 53
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 71, Low 47

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with patchy drizzle, High 66, Low 51
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 69, Low 49

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 50
Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 73, Low 48

It IS raining in southern California, but things are improving quickly. Now, here is the ultra rare SOCAL RADAR!

Everything is bigger in Texas

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Even, unfortunately, the mistakes are bigger in Texas. Temperature behind last week’s system did not react quite how anyone had anticipated in Dallas. Every outlet thought it would be as cool as freezing, or nearly there on the 18th, last Thursday, and it only dipped as low as 40. This warmer base meant that the high on Friday was also significantly warmer than expected as well, with the midnight high coming in at 45, when nobody expected anything better than the mid-30s. It wasn’t a good forecast, for sure, but The Weather Channel ultimately came away with the top score.
Actuals: Thursday – High 58, Low 40
Friday – High 45, Low 26

Grade: C

Gales of the Great Lakes

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While the rest of the country was able to dry out after a system moved through the middle of the country about this time last week, Lansing was left in a lurch. After the warm start to the season, Lake Michigan still has open water, and deep cold pool with west winds whipping across the Lake settled in. The fetch wasn’t deep enough to substantively affect Lansing, but overcast and cold temperatures still enveloped the capital city. There were flurries at times both days, which ultimately awarded the top forecast to the Weather Service and WeatherNation.
Actuals: January 15th, .01 inches of moisture in snow, High 11, Low -4
January 16th, .01 inches of moisture in snow, High 9, Low 2

Grade: B-C