Killeen, Texas to Albuquerque, New Mexico

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It’s Friday, so it’s time to head to Albuquerque. Isn’t that all the logic you need? We’re taking a driver through Texas in a lot of two lane highways. Our drive will cover 657 fairly slow miles, at a pace of 62.9mph, but we’ll wrap this drive up in one day! We’ll even get an hour back, and our 10 hour drive will end a mere 9 hours after we start. Road

Killeen, Texas

This is a classic summer day in the south central US. The pavement will be melting because of the heat, but it will be sunny, and we’ll be able to drive without an interruption (aside from bathroom breaks — drink a lot of water with this heat) through the morning and early afternoon. The dry line is expected to set up somewhere in eastern New Mexico. I don’t think the likelihood we get clipped by a storm is very high, but if we see any rain, it will come between Fort Sumner and the eastern extent of the Albuquerque metro. I said no rain in the Albuquerque forecast earlier, and I’m standing by that!

Albuquerque, New Mexico

Albuquerque, New Mexico

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

I spent some time in Albuquerque for a couple of nights, and I wish I had seen more of it. What I will say is that I hope this is a pretty easy forecast, because it takes some serious concentration to spell Albuquerque correctly every time. 3/3 so far!

At 652AM, MT, Albuquerque was reporting a temperature of 71 degrees with clear skies. Dew points were in the mid-20s, which will allow the temperature to rise fairly swiftly after sunrise. Fortunately, without the humidity, it will merely be hot instead of “oppressive” this afternoon.
A weak upper level trough is going to develop over the next couple of days off of the Baja Peninsula. While the dry line will continue to fire in west Texas, it will initially be dry in New Mexico. The dry line will weaken and the air will become less dry over New Mexico as this low in the Pacific strengthens and starts to send a little bit of moisture to the upper levels. It will still remain hot, even with a few clouds and modestly stickier air on Saturday.
Tomorrow – Hot, High 99, Low 70
Saturday – Hot and partly cloudy, High 98, Low 66

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 99, Low 70
Saturday – Partly cloudy skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 99, Low 68

AW: Tomorrow – Hot with periods of sun, becoming breezy in the afternoon with a thunderstorm in spots; dry thunderstorms can spark new wildfires High 97, Low 69
Saturday – Turning cloudy and hot High 97, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of sprinkles after 3pm. Mostly sunny and hot High 101, Low 67
Saturday – Mostly sunny and hot, High 99, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Hot. Partly cloudy. Chance of sprinkles and thunderstorms, High 100, Low 76
Saturday – Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly cloudy with scattered sprinkles in the afternoon, High 101, Low 75

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 101, Low 67
Saturday – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 99, Low 67

CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 100, Low 70
Saturday – Sunny, High 97, Low 68

Even if there was something going, I’m surprised by the rain in the forecast. Isn’t it going to evaporate before it reaches the ground?

Killeen, Texas

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We are off, well, not too far from where we had our last forecast. The weather is getting warm, and remaining interesting in Texas, so let’s what that means in Killeen.

At 933AM, CT, Killeen was reporting overcast skies and a temperature of 70 degrees. Rain has finally shifted out of the area this morning, though the back end of an area of rain extended from Palestine to Austin, and was rotating away from the region. There were flood advisories just to the north, including Waco after another round of heavy rain. Fortunately, this complex of storms is being ushered along by a cool front that is being trailed by dry, stable air.
After the rain shower activity dissipates through the early afternoon in east Texas, a nose of high pressure will build in through the Lone Star State. Moisture will be squashed towards the Gulf Coast, and Thursday looks like it may even be tolerable. Low pressure will quickly reemerge in the Colorado Rockies, however, with moisture reentering the picture from the Gulf. Another humid day will be on the way.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 72
Friday – Partly cloudy and more humid, high 95, low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny.  High 97, Low 71
Friday – Sunny. High 98, Low 74

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and humid High 93, Low 74
Friday – Very warm with sunshine and some clouds High 95, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 95, Low 73
Friday – Sunny, High 95, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 94, Low 77
Friday – Sunny, High 96, Low 76

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 73
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 95, Low 72

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 94, Low 73
Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 95, Low 74

The Weather Channel is really buying into a scorching end to the week. Let’s see if they are a bit on the aggressive side. Here is he radar imagery of rain moving on out of town.

A no frills cool down

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Temperatures cooled over our forecast period last week in Bend, and with that kind of a cool down, one might expect some showers or storms to go along with it. There were some, even some noted as being nearby last Tuesday, but nothing that actually fell in town, because Bend is in the rain shadow of the Cascades. It gets colder with cold fronts without the mess of a shower or thunderstorm! Victoria-Weather narrowly edged others in this forecast to earn victory.
Actuals: Monday – High 82, Low 43
Tuesday – High 68, Low 45

Grade: B-C

Houston, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Most of Texas has seen rough weather this summer, including Houston and the Metroplex. Houston’s came early on in the season, when hundreds of thousands of local residents lost power, and 4 were killed when a squall line moved through the region on May 16th. Now, the heat is building in the south, and surely, that will be story moving forward. Right?

At 453PM, CT, Houston was reporting a temperature of 89 degrees with clear skies. Severe weather was forecast from border to border thanks to a broad lee trough sneaking into the Plains from the Rockies. This evening, there are showers and storms as far southeast as a line from Livingston to Hunstville, but these are fueled by moisture from the Gulf streaming into the area of low pressure.
The trough is going to inspire an array of individual short waved lows, including one in north Texas. Tomorrow, showers and storms will remain closely tied to the rotation in northern Texas, which will allow a dry day along the Gulf Coast. The vorticity maximum moving through the south central US won’t be enough to bring rain fall all the way to Houston on Tuesday, but the moisture will lead to morning for and haze before sunrise.
Tomorrow – Sunny and humid, High 92, Low 78
Tuesday – Morning fog and haze 93, Low 79

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible.  High 90, Low 78
Tuesday – Partly cloudy skies. High 91, Low 79

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny; patchy fog in the morning and humid, then becoming breezy High 91, Low 78
Tuesday – Partly sunny, windy and humid High 91, Low 77

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 10am and 11am. Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 78
Tuesday – Partly sunny, High 92, Low 79

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. High 91, Low 81
Tuesday – Partly sunny, High 92, Low 80

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with light rain showers and isolated storms, High 88, Low 79
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with light rain showers, High 89, Low 80

CLI: Tomorrow – Drizzle, High 90, Low 77
Tuesday – Light rain showers, High 90, Low 77

ABC news in Houston uses Accuweather. Let’s let them put some words behind their forecast, shall we?

Being wrong, and making it interesting

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A thing that I often forget when forecasting in Cleveland, is that their official statistics are measured at Burke Lakefront Airport, and not Cleveland International. This makes a difference! Being by the lakeshore, especially earlier in the year, can keep temperatures cooler than they do further away from the Lake, and I was kicking myself as I came away from the forecast. I should have had lower temperatures! Imagine my surprise when everyone was at least 5 degrees off on the low temperature forecasts on both the 20th and 21st. The scores were all ultimately in the same ball park, so the real separator was Accuweather keeping Cleveland dry for the entire 48 hours, which didn’t seem right to anyone else, but alas, Accuweather blazed their own, victorious trail.
Actuals: May 20th, High 89, Low 72
May 21st, High 86, Low 76

Grade: C-D

Bend, Oregon to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina

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Not only do we get a long road trip, we get one that moves diagonally across the country. It will take 5 days, and a with a long 5th day at that, to cover 2,829 miles, at a pace of 67mph. That means our regular 8 hour days will be through after 538 miles. This is going to be a long trek, but at least it ends at the beach!

DAY ONE (Friday)

Bend, Oregon

It’s getting hot out west, and we are certainly going to notice that a ridge is building into the region, at the very least. We’ll be driving through some pretty rural country between Bend and the Boise metro, and again after 84 splits from 86 and heads south to Utah, and the views should be, if not spectacular, then at least unspoiled by clouds. We’ll just cross into the Beehive State, and finish in Snowville, Utah after day one.

DAY TWO (Saturday)
We will see the topography of our drive change pretty dramatically on Saturday. After starting the drive between some major mountain ranges, in the Great Basin, we will first hit the Wasatch in Utah and then start climbing the Rockies. All of this will be done in the sunshine, but some afternoon showers and storms in peaks of the Rockies might creep over I-70 by the end of our drive. We’ll end the day in Vail, Colorado, which is probably just as charming outside of ski season.

DAY THREE (Sunday)
Low pressure is going to get going again in the central Plains, with strong storms again becoming likely on Sunday. This time, however, the threat is going to be further to the north. The storms will pop up north and west of us as we drive through Kansas, emerging only late in the day. They will leave the better part of Kansas alone during the day, but after we stop in Solomon, in the north central part of the state, we should expect some storms to rumble through that night.

DAY FOUR (Monday)
The cold front is going to bog down in Missouri as the low shifts northward. Since the boundary did peel out of Kansas, though, we will be in some clear air through Kansas City, but after that, some scattered clouds with some embedded showers are going to be possible in the Show Me State, with the best chances coming between Columbia and St. Louis. We’ll make it to southern Illinois for our final night of the trip, stopping just north of Paducah, in Goreville, Illinois.

DAY FIVE (Tuesday)
Now ahead of the front, into some summer time heat and humidity, the threat for showers and stors is going to pervade the entire day. The best chance for rain will show up between Knoxville and Asheville, but after that point, it will be the evening, and instability will be at it’s highest. Scattered showers and storms will be possible throughout the Carolinas. Fortunately at this point, that activity is going to thrive on the heat of the day, and the evening is going to be dry in Myrtle Beach.

Myrtle Beach, South Carolina

Home field advantage

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Back before the weather and my personal calendar got really crazy, we put together a forecast for State College, the home of Accuweather. The way today’s weather looks, we might have called Tuesday the 14th, at least, a little chilly. When you compare it to the forecast put forth by many out lets, it was quite chilly. Even Accuweather was too warm with the forecast on the 14th (which was cooled by clouds and light showers) but perfection on Monday allowed them to claim half of the day’s victory with Clime.
Actuals: May 13th, High 75, Low 43
May 14th, light rain reported, not measured, High 64, Low 54

Grade: A – C

A summer time pattern

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Heat is building into the west, while severe weather has shifted off the east coast, which is bringing us to a bit more of a stable pattern. There are broad swaths of “slight risk” on the SPC outlook page, but that is what we expect this time of year. Big thunderstorms can crop up because of the dry line, but the good news is, the population is pretty sparse, so it doesn’t end up being too terribly injurious.

Enjoy this while we get into June, at least until the heat gets to be TOO much.

Chaser’s delight

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Even the most enthusiastic chasers aren’t happy chasing in metro areas. They are out for the thrill, the science and in the interest of public safety. The stories of devastation from Iowa, Nebraska, Arkansas, Texas and Kentucky over the last few weeks sicken chasers perhaps more than the average weather watcher.

Even if there wasn’t the element for human tragedy because of severe weather, populated areas are difficult to navigate because of the traffic, and are often more treed and have taller buildings, so it’s difficult to see what chasers are trying to see.

Basically, a cell by itself, in rural west Texas is pretty much the delight of storm chasers, and not far from Amarillo, which is a popular steak spot for many chasers I know.