The Double Whammy that is just a Single Whammy

Image via Fox 13, Seattle.

I am someone who reflexively shirks the adaptation and rapid proliferation of new terminology, even if that terminology has existed in other circles for quite some time. This has been extremely common over the last 15-20 years in the weather community, from the Polar Vortex to a Bomb Cyclone to the Atmospheric River. I shirk because, to an item, when they hit the popular zeitgeist, and are uniformly misused.

I’m coming around on the usage of some of these terms though. I have a friend who works closely in science communication, and she has expressed an appreciation for terms like these, which can either clearly indicate what is going on for the lay person, in terms of impacts and importantly, how to prepare of these storms. When the Weather Service is using this terminology, it’s good, when Jimmy Fallon is using the terminology, it’s probably not good.

So with all that said, I head a national meteorologist describe the recent and deadly weather in the Pacific Northwest as a “double whammy” that included a Bomb Cyclone followed by an Atmospheric River. This is fine with me, as we have the expectation that a bomb cyclone will bring very strong winds, and an atmospheric river brings heavy rain. That’s what happened, that’s what residents of the area prepared for, and in the interest of being complete pedantic, was meteorologically misleading.

It wasn’t so much a double whammy as one really big whammy. First, let’s make sure we have a basic definition of what each are. An atmospheric river is a jet stream that flows from the Pacific Ocean to the west coast. In a bygone era, we may have called this the Pineapple Express for example, but the atmospheric river nomenclature is applied to any jet streak intersection with the west coast. The jet is always a conduit for moisture, but because of a semi permanent ridge off the California coast, doesn’t always intersect with the west coast, making it more remarkable.

A bomb cyclone is an area of low pressure (an extratropical cyclone) develops explosively, specifically by dropping an average of 1 mb an hour as the low pressure deepens. This doesn’t happen often, and when it does, in encourages very strong winds. Bomb cyclones are almost always developed over the sea, where friction doesn’t inhibit the development, which means winds also reach some pretty extraordinary velocities.

One important component to a bomb developing is a strong jet streak. Low pressure develops on the left side of a jet at th point the wind starts to decelerate, if you are following the course of the wind, particularly in trough environments. In fact, the jet is often interpreted at the surface as a cold frontal boundary, trailing the low pressure.

So an overwater cyclone develops with the help of a strong overwater jet streak. If the cyclone moves inland, it is very possible, even likely the jet will follow. At atmospheric river, in this parlance, is an ingredient in the development of a bomb cyclone. The bomb cyclone then moves inland, with the atmospheric river in close pursuit.

The terms make sense, and I don’t have a problem with their usage, but now there is a little bit of background for you.

Ah, how things change

It’s 8 days since we put together the forecast for Midland, and I can tell you that most of the country is now much cooler than it was last week. The 80 degrees I see in the forecast verification are of a bygone era. It’s in the 50s now in Midland. Proving that things are constantly changing, though, Midland will be back up in the 8os this weekend. The forecast from last Thursday was fairly simple, with warm air, and warming overnight lows to start the weekend. Decent forecasts were had by all, the best came from Weatherbug.
Actuals: Friday – High 80, Low 46
Saturday – High 80, Low 57

Grade: A-B

Orlando, Florida to Manchester, New Hampshire

I like writing road trip forecasts, but doesn’t this seem backwards? It’s getting into the depths of November, and the plan is to leave Orlando for New England? It’s going to take two days, including one that is quite a bit longer than the first to cover 1324 miles. The pace, largely taking I-95 northward, will be 66.7mph, covering 534 miles on the first day, and leaving a grueling day on Friday. The best we can hope is that the weather cooperates.

DAY ONE (Friday)

Orlando, Florida

Low pressure that has moved out of the middle of the country, and is parked in the now over the mid-Atlantic. An associated cold front is now pushed into the Atlantic, with colder air digging into the southeastern United States. The air will be stable behind the cold front, which means clear skies and breezy, but fairly easy driving to Vander, North Carolina, just outside of Fayetteville.

DAY TWO (Friday)
Wrap around moisture is a big deal on this feature, bringing pretty heavy snow into the northern Appalachians. We will be in the dry sector, in the lee of the Appalachians to start the drive, but by the time we reach Washington, we’ll start to encounter some light precipitation. Fortunately, on this side of the system, it will be warm enough that precipitation will be falling as light rain, and will continue to fall as such until we start our turn inland in Connecticut. Some of this light rain will mix with light snow in western Massachusetts, and a wintry mix is in store for our arrival in Manchester.

Manchester, New Hampshire

The right side of the range

This is a purely subjective take, that Carson City was on the right side of the Sierra Nevada range at the end of the week. I am not a big fan of snow, and most of it fell on the western exposures during our Thursday – Friday forecast. There were trace amounts of precipitation in Carson City during our forecast period, but the heavier activity was up by Lake Tahoe. You know, where snow lovers can keep it to themselves. Rain started falling in Carson City just before midnight which really threw things askance for our forecast grades, and ultimately led to a shared victory between the unlikely duo of Weatherbug and WeatherNation.
Actuals: Thursday – rain reported, not measured, High 55, Low 37
Friday – Mix reported, not measured, High 41, low 30

Grade C-D

Coming Soon…

It’s getting closer and closer to the winter season, and snow showing up in our forecasts. Also, this set of forecasts may take us right up to Thanksgiving, which is an entirely different set of stressors.

Fort Smith, Arkansas

Florence, Alabama
Road Trip from Battle Creek, Michigan to Florence

Corvallis, Oregon

Lancaster, Pennsylvania
Road Trip from Corvallis to Lancaster

One reason winter seems so dreary

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021GL093316

It’s mid-November, and temperatures are getting cooler and days are getting shorter. Certainly, both are factors in making things a little depressing. The cold keeps us inside, and the lack of daylight makes things dark, quite literally.

But even in the daylight, it can often seem more grim. When it’s sunny, that usually means it’s colder in the morning, but another huge factor is the lower Lifting Condensation Level (LCL) that comes with winter. The LCL is level at which air lifted from the surface would reach the condensation point in the atmosphere. In practice, this is the height at which the bases of clouds form.

A given “parcel” of air will see temperatures drop at a known rate with height, based on established atmospheric physics. As we know with fog and clouds, moisture can only be retained in air to a certain temperature before it condenses. This is also why we have dew in the morning – that is when temperatures are coolest, and the air can’t hold the moisture any longer.

Cold air holds less moisture, and the atmosphere is colder in at all levels in the winter. As air at the surface is generally warmer than air aloft, it is prone to rising until it meets the LCL, at which point clouds start to form. Clouds are more likely in the cooler weather because the air can’t hold moisture, and the LCL is lower because the change in temperature from the surface to the point which the air can’t bear as much water is smaller, so those clouds are going to have low bases. There will be more clouds, and they will be lower to the ground. It’s dingy and claustrophobic, even in the day time.

But at least night comes earlier. At least spring is only 6 months away.

Dingy fall days

I was talking to someone in St. Louis today, and he was lamenting how gray it has been for a couple of days now. I lamented the same to him, here in the Twin Cities. What do you know, Cedar Rapids is right between the two! To be fair, Tuesday was sunny in Cedar Rapids, and likely felt pretty OK in the sun. The sun was not to be found on Wednesday, though, replaced by clouds, afternoon rain and cooler temperatures. Forecasts for Cedar Rapids turned out pretty well, none better than Accuweather’s.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 51, Low 31
Wednesday – .11 inches of rain High 48, Low 36

Grade A-C

Midland, Texas

Midland used to be the Weather Forecast Office that I would think about when thinking of severe thunderstorms, but in recent years, that focus has certainly shifted eastward. In mid-November, though, Midland could still provide a few forecast thrills.

AT 953AM, ET, Midland was reporting a temperature of 58 degrees with clear skies. An upper level ridge is parked over the Mississippi Valley, and sitting on the western flank of this ridge is allowing west Texas to remain comfortable and dry. A weak but active boundary east of the Mississippi is pushing most of the moisture in the middle of the country well away from the Lone Star State.
The upper level ridge will only work to get broader while a sharply angled trough in the western US will begin to get stronger flow through it. This will lead to an increase in warm air for Midland, however the narrow but strong wave will have a difficult time translating eastward. The beginning of the weekend will be warm and pleasant for west Texas, if a bit breezy.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 47
Saturday – Sunny with a bit of a breeze, High 82, Low 53

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 79, Low 47
Saturday – Partly cloudy skies. High 81, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny, breezy and pleasant High 76, Low 47
Saturday – Mostly sunny and very warm High 80, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 49
Saturday – Sunny, High 80, Low 56

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 47
Saturday – Sunny, High 80, Low 57

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 50
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 80, Low 56

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 78, Low 48
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 81, low 54

Well, that is sure a pleasant forecast, isn’t it? Let’s just say it is probably good this forecast stops at Saturday. For now, the satellite is basically a picture of Texas.

Carson City, Nevada

After toiling in the Midwest pretty regularly of late, we are going to head out west, and the state capital of the Silver State. What’s up, Carson City?

At 1235PM, PT, Carson City was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 57 degrees. An area of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest was directing a cold front through the Sierras. There was precipitation on the western faces of the mountains, and blustery winds over the mountains and through the eastern slopes, including Carson City, where wind speeds were gusting to 30mph.
The trough off the west coast is going to remain in place for the foreseeable future, which means the low in the area is going to recycle, and flow will continue from the west into California and eventually western Nevada. The moisture won’t be robust, so it will struggle to breach the mountains until the trough itself is able to move into the Great Basin. Thursday will continue to see some patch cloudiness, but Friday will see the introduction of some light rain with a possible snowy mix into the forecast.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 50, Low 36
Friday – Chance of light showers, mixing with snow, High 45, Low 28

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 51, Low 33
Friday – Mainly cloudy. A shower of rain or wet snow possible High 40, Low 30

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun with a shower in places; cool High 52, low 29
Friday – Cloudy and colder High 43, Low 29

NWS: Tomorrow -A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly after 10am. Snow level 5700 feet rising to 6200 feet in the afternoon. Mostly sunny, High 53, Low 29
Friday – Snow, mainly before 4pm. High 42, Low 25

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny in the morning and then becoming partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain and snow, High 50, Low 32
Friday – Snow likely, High 41, Low 28

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 52, Low 31
Friday – Mostly cloudy with light snow, High 42, Low 28

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 51, Low 29
Friday Heavy snow showers, High 44, low 27

That’s enough out of me, here is the scene from KOLO news in Reno.

The downward trajectory

It wasn’t well modeled in Champaign over the weekend, but perhaps it should have been more closely monitored. Temperatures after a weak cold front moved through overnight Saturday into Sunday fell off fairly quickly Sunday night. I think most of us anticipated more clouds, or simply weren’t in on guidance’s plans, so Sunday lows were too warm, across the board. Also off were the precipitation forecasts for a couple of outlets. It did continue to rain on Sunday morning, nearly a quarter inch, which Accuweather and Clime didn’t have in their forecast. This hurt Accuweather the most, as it cost them victory for the day, instead handing it to us, Victoria-Weather.
Actuals: Saturday, .43 inches of rain, High 56, Low 44
Sunday .2 inches of rain, High 67, Low 43

Grade: C-D